Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Service Jobs - Information Services

Information Services (revised fall 2024)

The NAICS definition of Information Services attempts to include all the establishments that produce, distribute or transmit information or cultural products. Information service jobs trended upward in the 1990’s and peaked in 2000 with 3.6 million jobs, followed by a slow decline to 3.027 million jobs by the beginning of 2024. Information services include publishing of newspapers, periodicals, greeting cards, books, and directory and mailing list publishers on paper or as electronic publishers. The publishing industry also includes software publishers. Information services includes the motion picture and sound recording industries, broadcasting, wired, wireless and satellite telecommunications, a data processing sub sector and web search portals, libraries, archives, and other information services. Digital technology has created new industries and new jobs, but not fast enough to replace the jobs lost from the paper era and wireline telecommunications.
The publishing industry sub sector also had peak employment in 2000 at 1.059 million jobs. They declined to 944.5 thousand jobs at the beginning of 2024 disguises the shift of employment out of paper and into publishing computer software. In 1990, software publishing employed 98.2 thousand while now establishment employment totals 656.0 thousand jobs at an annual growth of almost 6 percent a year. In contrast, jobs at newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers have declined 490.7 thousand jobs to 288.6 thousand at the beginning of 2024, or from 778.8 thousand in 1990.

Newspaper publishers have eliminated their opening and closing stock prices and classified advertising. They cannot compete with the graphs, charts and continuously updating stock quotations available on the Internet. Many newspapers try to have online advertising but they come under competitive pressure from the web site known as Craigslist. Materials there defines their mission rather than what they do. What they do is up to the user to decide and I would say it is self-serve classified advertising, available free. There are message boards and chat rooms and some other appealing services, all free, but roughly speaking it is classified advertising by geographic area and no charge. It serves the entire world.

Metropolitan Washington, DC has its own link and scrolling through the ads it is definitely getting heavy use. For many years, the Washington Post continued with its printed classified ads that had significant charges, especially compared to free. Having the Washington Post and Craigslist selling classified advertising at dramatically different prices in the same market defies everything economists predict about markets. In economic theory this does not happen. The low cost and low price seller will take business away from the high priced seller. High priced sellers will disappear; prices will equalize among competitive sellers. It took quite a few years but the Washington Post no longer prints classified advertising. When I first heard about Craigslist, they had an “about us” link where I learned they had 18 employees. The number went but even now in 2024 they have only 50 employees. Think about that. In the new digital world, we can have all the classified advertising anybody needs or wants anywhere in the world with just 50 jobs. The digital world assures the future of information will be electronic and the job trends will be down.
The motion picture and sound recording industries have 419.2 thousand jobs, a total below the pre-pandemic employment levels. Job growth in this industry has remained below 1 percent since 2000. The motion picture and video production sub sectors has 241.9 thousand of the jobs with 122.1 thousand jobs in the exhibition sub sector and a few more jobs in post production and distribution services. Employment in the sound recording industry dropped below 20 thousand more than ten years ago and remains a small source of jobs.

The broadcasting industry by the beginning of 2024 had 347.4 thousand jobs. The broadcasting jobs in television and radio reached a high of 165.9 thousand jobs in 2000, but dropped afterward to 120.5 thousand by 2024 with 53.1 thousand jobs in radio broadcasting and 67.4 thousand jobs in television broadcasting remaining. Changes in the types of broadcasting services and in the make up of establishments providing them created a need to combine old data into a newly defined broadcasting sub sector. It is called media streaming distribution services, social networks, and other media networks and content providers. It had 226.8 thousand jobs.

The telecommunications industry reached their peak employment of 1.425 million in March 2001, before a precipitous decline of 750 thousand jobs by the beginning of 2024. Only 646.4 thousand jobs remain with both the wired and wireless sub sectors in decline. Wired telecommunications had increasing employment until 2001 and then continuous employment decline to 466.2 thousand by 2024. Wireless communications, as in cell phones, had only 35 thousand jobs in 1990. It increased to 203.4 thousand jobs in 2007 only to begin a decline to 86.3 thousand jobs by 2024. Establishments acting as telecommunications resellers have 39.7 thousand jobs. An additional sub sector includes a variety of satellite tracking, communications telemetry, and radar station operations. Jobs at establishments providing Internet services or Voice over Internet protocols (VoIP) by way of client connections are also included here. They have only 54.1 thousand jobs with a negative growth rate since 2010.

Old timers will remember the phone monopoly where AT&T did its own research at Bell Labs, produced its own equipment at Western Electric and installed and owned the phone lines, switching equipment and all the business and household phones. Under regulations approved by the Federal Communications Commission phone users were renting their telephones from the AT&T and they were strictly prohibited from altering or changing their rental equipment. Anything but Phone Company phones were prohibited and referred to as foreign attachments.

Beginning the late 1960’s and 1970’s the Federal Communications Commission amended communications policy to encourage the use of new technologies and create new products: fax machines, answering machines, the computer modem, wi-fi Internet. The use of analog technology kept communication companies in separate markets with separate services. Before the arrival of digital communications, the phone company was close to the same thing as telecommunications and separate from other businesses. With today’s digital technology the walls of separation have come down. Now rules permit independent Internet Service providers, data processing services and others to have equal access to telecommunications providers. Wireline, wireless and cable companies can offer Internet services in addition to phone and cable services with minimal new investment in proprietary equipment. Costs are falling and the incremental cost of new subscribers for one or more services keeps dropping.

Competition could lead to lower prices to consumers and with more service options to choose different combinations of services. So far companies have responded with merger proposals more than price cuts and they get away with selling a block or bucket of services rather than allowing more choices. If Competition among companies with their overlapping services ever really breaks out, prices could fall to very low levels. It might happen and it might not. If prices remain high then profits and dividends to stockholders will be good. If prices fall, then profits and dividends will fall and consumers will get a break. Either way the prognosis is not good for jobs.

Establishments producing data services provide computing infrastructure, data processing, and web hosting that includes streaming support services, although not streaming distribution services. Data processing establishments provide complete processing and specialized reports from data supplied by clients or provide automated data processing and data entry services. Data processing and web hosting services had growing employment until 2001 when jobs totaled 316.8 thousand. Jobs declined below 300 thousand but remained steady until 2016 when they began to grow again. The highest total so far came at the beginning of 2024 with 489.6 thousand jobs. These jobs have a long term growth rate of 2.58 percent.

Establishments providing Web search portals, libraries, archives and other related services have 179.9 thousand jobs divided between 27.8 thousand jobs at libraries and archives and 152 thousand jobs needed to operate web sites that use a search engine to generate and maintain extensive databases of Internet addresses and content. Web search portals often have additional services like email, connections to other Web sites, auctions and news and views. Even though library employment remains low it has more than doubled since 1990 at a long term growth rate of 2.68 percent. Web search portals had only 25.5 thousand jobs in 1990 but with a long term growth rate of 5.56 percent, suggesting continued job growth.

Information occupations needing college degree skills come to 1.779 million jobs, or almost 60 percent of total information jobs, although 98 percent of these jobs require a BA degree, not an advanced degree. The college degree total includes 617.6 thousand jobs needing computer skills, including 437.4 thousand of them as computer programmers, software developers, quality assurance testers and web developers.

Career jobs that use college degree skills in publishing include 131.9 thousand jobs as news analysts, reporters and journalists, public relations specialists, writers and editors and another 57.5 thousand jobs in art and design occupations including graphic design; college degree skills in film and sound recording establishments include 99.3 thousand jobs as producers and directors. Many actors, composers and musicians have college degrees, but demonstrated skills are the main criteria for these jobs.

With only 3.027 million jobs information services have only a small share of non-farm establishment jobs. Information services had a rising share of non-farm jobs until 2000, which turned out to be the start of its downward trend. The 2024 job share equals 1.94 percent non-farm employment. Current trends do not suggest much help from information services to fill the new jobs of the future.

Wider use of information technology permits companies to increase their services and decrease employment. Up to 2024 the companies have avoided competition so that high prices restrict the use of services over what they would be if prices more closely reflected incremental costs. Increasing the sales of information services would help support jobs and moderate the decrease in employment caused by higher productivity and technology, but the small base of employment and the risks of further job losses does not permit forecasting many more jobs from information services. We have 71.464 million jobs left to fill we have to have more service.

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