Labor Line

March 2025_________________________ 

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

This month's job and employment summary data are below and this month's inflation data is below that. 

The latest blog entry The Trump Recession Watch

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The Establishment Job Report with data released March 7 2025.

 Current Job and Employment Data 

Jobs

Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 151,000 to 159,218,000

Total Private Jobs up 140,000 to 135,603,000

Total Government Employment up 11,000 to 23,615,000 Note 

Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 162 thousand to 272,847,000

Civilian Labor Force up down 385 thousand to 170,359,000

Employed down 588 thousand to 163,307,000

Employed Men down 507 thousand to 86,226,000

Employed Women down 81 thousand to 77,081,000

Unemployed up 203 thousand to 7,052,000

Not in the Labor Force up 546 thousand to 102,847,000

Unemployment Rate went up .1% to 4.1% or 7,052/170,359

Labor Force Participation Rate went down .2% to 62.4%, or 170,359/272,847

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 2.9 percent for 2024. 

The CPI March report for the 12 months ending with February shows the 

CPI for All Items was up 2.8% 

CPI for Food and Beverages was up 2.5% 

CPI for Housing was up 3.9% 

CPI for Apparel was up .6% 

CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 1.7% 

CPI for Medical Care was up 2.9% 

CPI for Recreation was up 1.4% 

CPI for Education was up 3.6% 

CPI for Communication was down 2.1% 

This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report

A SO-SO MONTH AFTER A SO-SO MONTH

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its March report for jobs in February. The civilian labor force was down 385 thousand with a drop of 588 thousand in the employed and an increase of 203 thousand in the unemployed. The increase in the unemployed more than offset the decrease in the labor force to increase the unemployment rate, which increased .1 percent to 4.1%. The participation rate decreased .2% to 62.4 percent, a very low rate.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 151 thousand for February. The increase was 106 thousand more jobs in the private service sector combined with an increase of 34 thousand jobs from goods production. The total of 140 thousand jobs gained in the private sector combined with a(n) increase of 11 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production had a better month with 34 thousand new jobs with job gains in all three subsectors. Natural resources had 5 thousand of the jobs; construction added 19 thousand jobs and 10 thousand more jobs in manufacturing. In construction specialty trade contractors added 14.6 thousand jobs with residential specialty trade contractors up 12.6 thousand of the specialty trade jobs. There was an increase of 2.5 thousand jobs in heavy and engineering construction.

The 10 thousand manufacturing jobs were more than last month. Durable goods were up 11 thousand jobs including machinery manufacturing up 3.5 thousand jobs and motor vehicle manufacturing up 8.9 thousand jobs. Non-durable goods production did worse, dropping a thousand jobs. There were 700 more jobs in food processing and paper manufacturing added a 1.9 thousand jobs. Other durable and non-durable goods sub sectors lost jobs.

Government service employment increased a net 11 thousand jobs, but the federal government employment was down 10 thousand jobs. State government added 1 thousand jobs and local government added 20 thousand more. State and local government jobs excluding education increased by 15.5 thousand. Public education was up a net 5.0 thousand this month, which was 10.3 thousand new jobs in local education offset by a loss of 5.3 thousand jobs in state education. Private sector education was up 9.6 thousand seasonally adjusted jobs, which brings the total of 14.6 thousand new jobs in education.

Health care took first place for private service sector job gains with 63 thousand new jobs, down slightly from the last three months. All four of the health care subsectors had more jobs with ambulatory care adding 25.6 thousand jobs; hospitals added 14.9 thousand jobs, a good month for hospitals; nursing and residential care were up 11.5 thousand jobs. Social assistance services added 11.1 thousand jobs, but with 10 thousand new jobs coming in just individual and family services. The growth rate for health care was down from last month to 3.29 percent, above the average of 2.17 percent per month of the last 15 years.

Trade, transportation and utilities had 21 thousand new jobs, a smaller gain than the last two month. While wholesale trade jobs had 8.8 thousand new jobs, retail trade was off 6.3 thousand jobs. Warehouse clubs and super centers had 10.1 thousand of these trade jobs, but no other trade sub sectors did well. Transportation had 17.8 thousand new jobs but couriers and messengers had 23.5 thousand of the jobs while modal transportation mostly lost jobs.  Warehousing and storage were off 3.1 thousand jobs.

Professional and business services dropped 2 thousand jobs, less than last month. The professional and technical services subsector lost 9.3 thousand jobs in a terrible month where management of companies also lost 1.2 thousand jobs. The third sub sector, administrative and support services including waste management offset losses and added 8.1 thousand jobs. Among professional and technical services, management consulting added 4.7 thousand jobs, after last month’s decline. Architecture and engineering services added 3.2 thousand jobs but otherwise everything was off; computer design and related services dropped 9.8 thousand jobs. There were small changes for remaining sub sectors.

Among administrative support services, the primary job gains came in services to buildings with 12.5 thousand new jobs and investigation and security services up 5.5 thousand jobs. Job losses came in employment services down 12.3 thousand jobs and business support services down another 4.2 thousand jobs among small changes in other administrative support sub sectors.

Leisure and hospitality lost a net 16 thousand jobs in a poor month for jobs. Arts, entertainment and recreation added a net 7.8 thousand jobs but with amusements, gambling and recreation down 4.7 thousand of the jobs. Performing arts and spectator sports did well adding 10.7 thousand jobs. Accommodations added 3.7 thousand jobs while restaurants jobs were down 27.5 thousand, an unusually large loss of jobs for a month.

Information services had 5 thousand new jobs. Motion picture and sounding recording had 4.7 thousand jobs and publishing added another .4 thousand, among small changes in other sub sectors. Financial activities added 20.3 thousand jobs where finance and insurance added 10.4 thousand jobs and another 9.9 thousand jobs in real estate and rental and leasing services. The category, other, added 4.1 thousand jobs, after last month’s big gain. Personal and laundry services added 2.8 thousand jobs while non-profit membership associations added 3.9 thousand jobs. Repair and maintenance services was down 2.6 thousand of the jobs.

The economy added 151 thousand jobs for February, and like last month a modest increase. Establishment employment in February was 159.218 million with an annual growth rate of 1.14 percent, barely population growth. Health care continued its dominant place in job growth with 42 percent of new jobs this month. Leisure and hospitality and business and professional services did poorly.  Cutting the federal portion of Medicaid funding with its health care jobs will push the economy into recession and sharply decrease job growth. This month’s job total is 1.947 million above February a year ago and 4.158 million jobs above February two years ago.

February Details 

Non Farm Total +151

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from January by 151 thousand jobs for a(n) February total of 159.218 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 151 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of +1.14% The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning February 2024 was +1.24%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning February 2020 was +.86%; from 15 years ago beginning February 2010 it was +1.38%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs 

1. Natural Resources +5

Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining increased 5 thousand from January with 625 thousand jobs in February. An increase of 5 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +9.68 percent.   Natural resource jobs were down 8 thousand from a year ago. Jobs in 2000 averaged around 600 thousand with little prospect for growth.  This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .4 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +19

Construction jobs were up 19 thousand from January with 8.310 million jobs in February. An increase of 19 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.75 percent.  Construction jobs are up 174 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is 1.67%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 5.2 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +10

Manufacturing jobs were up 10 thousand from January with 12.765 million jobs in February. An increase of 10 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.94 percent.  Manufacturing jobs were down for the last 12 months by 88 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is -.05%; for the last 15 years by +.73%. Manufacturing ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.0 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +21

Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment were up 21 thousand jobs from January with 29.099 million jobs in February. An increase of 21 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.87 percent. Jobs are up by 243 thousand for last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +.86 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.3 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services +5

Information Services jobs were up 5 thousand from January with 2.952 million jobs in February.  An increase of 5 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.04 percent. (Note 2 below)  Jobs are down by 11 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 and has slowly come back to 3.0 million in the last decade. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +21

Financial Activities jobs were up by 21 thousand jobs from January to 9.241 million in February. An increase of 21 thousand jobs for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.73 percent. Jobs are up 86 thousand for the last 12 months.  (Note 3 below) This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +.81 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +1.20 percent. Financial activities rank 8th of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business and Professional Services -2

Business and Professional Service jobs went down 2 thousand from January to 22.573 million in February. A decrease of 2 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.11 percent. Jobs are down 88 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was +1.01 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was 2nd in 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and third rank now with 14.2 percent of establishment employment. 

8. Education including public and private +15

Education jobs were up 15 thousand jobs from January at 14.849 million in February. An increase of 15 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.18 percent. These include public and private education. Jobs are up 216 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.62 percent. Education ranks 5th among 12 sectors with 9.3 percent of establishment jobs

9. Health Care +63

Health care jobs were up 63 thousand from January to 23.066 million in February. An increase of 63 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.29 percent. Jobs are up 877 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6)  The health care long term 15 year growth rate has been +2.17 percent lately compared to +3.29 percent for this month’s jobs. Health care ranks 2nd of 12 with 14.5 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality -16

Leisure and hospitality jobs were down 16 thousand from January to 16.949 million in February.  (note 7) A decrease of 16 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -1.13 percent. Jobs are up 214 thousand for the last 12 months. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.7 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up to 7th from 4th in the pandemic decline.

11. Other +4

Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations were up 4 thousand from January to 6.019 million in February. An increase of 4 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.80 percent. Jobs are up 91 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 8) Other services had +.83 percent growth for the last 15 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.8 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +6

Government service employment went up 6 thousand from January at 12.769 million jobs in February. An increase of 6 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.52 percent. Jobs are up 305 thousand for the last 12 months.  (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly with a 15 year growth rate of +.39 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.0 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

Sector Notes__________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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David Leonhardt, Ours Was the Shining Future: The Story of the American Dream

 

David Leonhardt, Ours Was the Shining Future: The Story of the American Dream, (NY:  Random House, 2023), 395 pages, $32.00

In his new book New York Times journalist David Leonhardt gives readers the origin of the term “American Dream.” It derives from an 1880’s book of history by an author I have never heard of named James Truslow Adams. A lengthy quote from the book, titled The Epic of America, describes the better, richer and happier life future progress will bring to Americans. As you might guess the Leonardt book writes about the disappearing American Dream.

The book has an Introduction, a Part I entitled “The Rise” with four chapters and a Part II entitled “The Fall” with six chapters, followed by a Conclusion of 26 pages. For no obvious reason the Introduction is numbered in roman numerals, ix- xxxiv, which often signals something readers might skip over.  Here though the Introduction should be read as part of the book.

Halfway into the introduction Leonhardt explains “For almost forty years now, the United States has been doing a worse job than any similar country of keeping its citizens healthy and alive.” How true, but he does not blame our failure on capitalism. Instead, he writes “My central argument is that capitalism remains the best system for delivering rising living standards to the greatest number of people – but only a certain type of capitalism.” He fills in this argument by defining three forces he argues generate the rise and fall of Democratic Capitalism as practiced in the United States. He gives brief discussion of Power, Culture, Investment.

The four chapters of Part I, The Rise, offer quite disparate people and events intended to trace the rise of the American Dream. Discussion stays within the 1920’s up to the early 1960’s.  The first chapter gives a sketch of depression era labor history and union organizing using the 1934 Minneapolis Teamsters strike as an example of working-class effort and success.  In chapter two readers meet businessman Paul Hoffman and a selection of other businessmen including automobile executive and Michigan Governor George Romney as examples of people who worked as trustees of the common welfare. Leonhardt contrasts the career and sacrifice of George Romney, the father, with his son Mitt Romney who opted for money making at Bain Capital. Chapter three does much the same for another selection of people that stayed in long run careers. Include here Dwight Eisenhower, computer pioneer Grace Hopper and some discussion of the government’s move to support long term research. Chapter 4 features the efforts of A. Philip Randolph of the Brotherhood of Sleeping Car Porters and his early struggles for racial equality.

Next, begins the six chapters of Part II, the Fall, that starts with chapter five entitled “The Young Intelligentsia.” Here readers meet C. Wright Mills, Tom Hayden, Betty Friedan, Raph Nader and follow their careers along with a supporting cast of people Leonhardt defines as New Left. He narrates their efforts and successes before shifting to the careers of people he defines as the old left, primarily four labor union leaders of the 1950’s and 1960’s: George Meany, Cesar Chavez, Walter Reuther and Jerry Wurf. Leonhardt takes six pages describing Meany’s failure to expand the labor movement, and while more charitable with the others they too failed to unify the working class.

Chapter Six starts describing a few celebrated crimes of the 1960’s and a plot of crime data that documents the increasing crime rate.  There follows a discussion of the academic and political response to crime.  Here Leonhardt provides the reaction to crime of Spiro Agnew, Richard Nixon, George Wallace and a much longer discussion of Robert Kennedy. Kennedy confronted the crime issue to unite the working class, something Democratic politicians have avoided ever since.

Chapter 7 and 8 develops the evolution of conservative ideology following Richard Nixon’s election. Many are mentioned in this effort in Chapter 7 but it primarily follows the Chicago School and the efforts of Milton Friedman and Robert Bork. Chapter 8 follows with the October 1973 Middle East oil embargo, which Leonhardt treats as the beginning of an era that “Clears the Track for Business.” Here Leonhardt follows the Ronald Reagan era and those in the anti-tax movement and the de-regulators like lobbyist Charls Walker, Congressman Jack Kemp, deregulator Ann Gorsuch and a little more of Robert Bork. The closing pages describe the Democrats response and evaluates the economic success of Republican “Neoliberals.”

Chapter Nine, “This Little Village Called America,” gives the historical background and politics of immigration. Narrative starts with 1924 and moves forward to Edward Kennedy and the 1965 immigration law, then onward to Congresswomen Barbara Jordan and the 1986 amendments and on to Bill Clinton, Bernie Sanders and the present immigration troubles. Chapter Ten, the last chapter before the conclusion, describes the decline in education spending, the rise of health care and income support subsidies and the failure to invest in the future or address inequality of income and wealth.

The designation of the first four chapters as Rise and the last six chapters as Fall feels out-of-place; all ten chapters feel like Fall.  Possibly the editors at Random House wanted something that feels good to include, but I found that quite difficult to find. For example, the Rise chapters included the 1934 Minneapolis Teamsters strike where employers made public calls to organize a “citizen army” of vigilantes to end picketing as a first response. Continuing the strike required a dangerous, deadly and ferocious battle to fight the employer’s organized violence until finally the intervention of Governor Olsen as impartial mediator got employers to the bargaining table. While the strike ended with some wage and labor gains, they amounted to a hiccup; I cannot find a consistent Rise through any periods in America’s labor relations.

Think of the above as a minor criticism to an otherwise well written book of important economic and public policy subjects. The book makes a rough progression through time, where chapter narratives are primarily topical and treat the people and events in the narrative as evidence for drawing conclusions. Leonhardt offers censure across the political spectrum such as “What the New Left tried to do, it often succeeded at doing. Yet, the movement never made much of an attempt to improve pay, benefits, and job conditions of the working class, . . .” How true.

Before narrating the chapter 7-8 Nixon-Reagan era, Leonhardt suggests “By the late 1960’s, millions of American workers had no political home.” How true and a perfect introduction for describing the corporate agenda that leaves the working class with declining real wages and greater inequality by 2025. Be sure to read the immigration chapter carefully, it provides a thorough and excellent discussion of the evolving controversies of immigration law and policy, the best chapter in my opinion.

The Conclusion chapter returns to the American dream and the power, culture, investment forces that he mentioned at the beginning. He writes “If there is a central reason for the decline of the American dream over the past half century, it has been the lack of a strong political movement dedicated to protecting that dream.”  Lack of a strong political movement translates to a failure of the always-divided Democratic Party to be an opposition party and defend the working class.

The need for change and new direction dominates the conclusion narrative: “Think about how different American society might be if there were also strong movements to reduce corporate concentration, raise taxes on the wealthy, lower medical costs, create universal pre-K education and increase middle class pay.” He advises progressives interested in building a movement for change needs to know it “requires making the left less upscale than it now is and more inclusive of people who are not white collar professionals” and he counsels for a reinvigorated labor movement and listening more to the working class. In the last two paragraphs of the book Leonhardt expresses outrage for the past up to the present but hope for the future. After finishing the narrative, I can agree America is not hopeless, but I found precious little hope for a shining future.

 

The Trump Recession Watch

The Trump Recession Watch Update - March 16, 2025

There will be a nasty recession if the tariffs go forward as Trump demands. Jobs are vulnerable to even a modest recession because so many of the jobs that have replaced the lost manufacturing jobs are in vulnerable discretionary industries like leisure and hospitality at restaurants, accommodations, travel, and a variety of optional business services and in retail. In 1990 manufacturing jobs were 13.08 percent of establishment employment. If they were still 13.08 percent instead of 8 percent there would be 20.7 million manufacturing jobs instead of 12.6 million. Jobs will melt away in a recession, which is strictly optional. Where are the oligarchs? They may have gotten to Schumer and convinced him to keep the government operating as they want but we can hope in exchange for some limits to federal cuts. Our rich oligarchs do not want us to know how put off they are with Trump but I have to think they still expect to control him and they do not relish a recession. Time will tell.

The Trump Recession Watch Update - March 6, 2025

Suspending the tariffs for a month is a sign that corporate America remains in charge of the economy and does not want, or expect to benefit from, a recession. Every single thing Trump proposes will set off a recession, or worse, and so it cannot be at all certain recession/depression is not what is intended.

The Trump Recession Watch Update - March 5, 2025

The tariffs alone should be enough to set off a recession. If the federal share of Medicaid is slashed as threatened there will be a grimy and nasty recession. It is impossible to pull that much money out of the spending stream and keep the economy going. Employment will be falling; unemployment rising. We might wonder why corporate America with its reported 12,000 lobbyists would sit by wringing their hands, when it was their money bags that bought the Republicans and Congress. Either corporate America intends what is going on or they are cringing cowards.

The Trump Recession Watch – February 25, 2025

Before predicting a Trump recession, it is useful to remember the George W. Bush recession that began in the fall of 2008 and did not recover until early 2010. Recall it was W’s Crony’s that depressed the economy looting the banking system with speculative gambling in home mortgage innovations. By the third quarter of 2009 the Gross Domestic Product was down $450.1 billion dollars seasonally adjusted at annual rates. For an economy approaching $15 trillion of GDP in 2009 that was only a 3.4 percent decline. However, the quarterly average of seasonally adjusted employment was down 6,692,000 jobs. Jobs just melted away in a 3.4 percent GDP downturn.

Since an economy is nothing but a flow of transactions measured over time, Trump might take a hint from the Bush debacle and avoid depressing the economy. As February 2025 ends Trump has allowed Musk to dismiss probationary federal employees, but news reports put the number losing their jobs at 200,000, significant, but small compared to 6.692 million. So far Trump is all talk but no serious action toward a recession.

However, that could change given the talk of draconian cuts to health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid. The Bureau of Economic Analysis that produces the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) reports in their Table 3.12 an annual Medicaid budget of $878 billion dollars for 2023. Table 3.12 reports a Medicare budget of $1.009 trillion. From the beginning of Trump’s first term to eight years later at the end of Biden’s term health care provided 3.163 million new jobs or 27 percent of all new jobs, more than any other sub sector.

Some of the worthies in Congress have discussed eliminating the $878 billion Medicaid budget, a good way to start a recession. While the amount remains to be negotiated, it is worth remembering the beneficiaries of Medicaid do not receive a dime of that budget. All of the Medicaid budget goes directly to corporate health care venders in what is only the first round of a spending decline. Payroll cuts to doctors and nurses and revenue cuts to medical suppliers bring a second round of decline to the spending stream. The initial cuts reduce production, income and employment by three to four times the initial amount; economists call it a multiplier effect.

Managing the economy requires making sure the flow of transactions remains steady and increases with the growth of population and our productive capacity. That is an important point because recessions in the modern economy are strictly optional and can be readily avoided with cooperation of the Federal Reserve Bank and the United States Treasury.

Back in the 19th and early 20th century recessions were a regular occurrence like the recessions and depressions of 1873-1878, 1881-1884, 1893-1897, 1907, 1913-14, 1920-1921. In those days it was tough to manage the economy without a central bank and corporate America determined to hang onto the gold standard. Once the Great Depression of 1929 got under way the Franklin Roosevelt administration threw out the gold standard and with the Banking Act of 1935 introduced the modern tools of monetary and economic policy.

Today’s monetary management makes recessions optional like the George W. Bush recession where rogues and scoundrels had enough concentrated power to pursue their own agenda. It is easy to notice Trump and Musk have their own agenda and any economic decline will be caused as their option. Trump threatened many depressing economic policies before his inauguration and his policy pronouncements since January 20 have been universally depressing. Corporate America has pursued lower tariffs for at least 60 years because they learned, slowly but surely, that tariffs bring retaliation. A 25% tariff on Canada, our biggest trading partner, will bring retaliation and depress both economies. Mass deportation, as opposed to slowing immigration, will be economically depressing as will draconian cuts in Medicaid and Medicare or in food stamp aid or AID with its food for peace program.

Since corporate America has been the primary force making economic policy in the United States since the 19th century, we might wonder who is in charge here? Corporate America made all economic decisions during Trump’s first term, which is why tariffs remained low and immigrant labor, documented or not, remained cheap and plentiful and the economy did well. Corporate America has been restrained and somewhat subdued so far, but going along with DEI pronouncements, beating up on the federal workforce or taking over the Kennedy Center does not threaten the larger economy.

Corporate America has always expected Presidents to serve corporate power, not the other way around. Since WWII corporate America has preferred a stable economy, but never assume as economists like to do that corporate America can be counted on to just maximize profits. America’s labor history proves a segment of corporate America and the wealthy like class warfare. In 2025, Musk represents the warfare segment of the wealthy who know a depressed economy generates inequality as a perk of the upper class. If Trump wants his second term economy to go as well as his first, he will opt out of recession. The upcoming budget debate will tell the story. Watch the policy fight coming up, but expect corporate America still has the unity to neutralize the budget ax, tariffs, deportations and Musk. Updates!

Trump versus Biden on Jobs

Trump versus Biden on Jobs

To compare jobs in the economy during the Trump years of 2017 to 2021 with the Biden years of 2021 to 2025 requires allowing for the job losses from the Pandemic quarantine, which recall started in the early spring of 2020. In the jobs data for March 2020 establishment employment reached 150.898 million jobs. A month later in April 2020 establishment employment declined to only 130.421 million jobs, a decline of 20.477 million jobs.

Both presidents were in office for 48 months, the usual four year term. In the first 39 pre-Pandemic months of Trump’s first term in office, establishment employment increased by 5.262 million jobs. The Pandemic job decline of April 2020 and slow job recovery restored the Pandemic job losses by February 2022, the thirteenth month into the Biden Administration. While many continued to wear face masks and be wary of spreading Covid, the pharmaceutical industry had a vaccine available and jobs had returned to their pre-Pandemic total and a semblance of normality. This leaves the last 35 months of the Biden administration as a normal and comparable period for review with the first 39 months of the Trump administration.

In the first 13 months of the Biden Administration jobs increased just under 7.960 million to 150.876 million jobs, which restored the remaining Pandemic job losses left from the Trump term. In the last 35 months of the Biden administration beginning with February 2022, national employment increased by 8.660 million jobs. Therefore, the Trump economy that generated 5.262 million new jobs during the 39 months the pre-Pandemic months did not do as well creating jobs as the post Pandemic Biden economy that generated 8.660 million jobs in 35 months.

The Biden administration’s superior performance on jobs resulted primarily from a selection of industries where the Biden economy did much better.

Health Care and Education

Start with health care where Trump created 1.326 million health care jobs in 39 months while the Biden economy created 2.691 million jobs in 35 months. Move to education where the Trump economy created 90 thousand jobs in private education, while the Biden administration created 256 thousand jobs. In state supported public education the Trump economy created 84 thousand jobs while the Biden economy created 192 thousand jobs. In the local public schools the Trump economy created 130 thousand new jobs where the Biden economy created 457 thousand new jobs.

Leisure and Hospitality

Leisure and hospitality did much better during the Biden Administration and in all its sub sectors: performing arts, spectator sports, museums, historical sites, amusements, gambling, recreation, accommodations, restaurants and related food services. The combined changes were 284 thousand more jobs for Trump in 39 months while the Biden economy added 1.527 million jobs in the last 35 months of his administration.

Government

In government employment, excluding education, Biden and the Biden economy created more jobs and did so in all three levels of government: federal, state and local. The first 39 months of the Trump administration brought a combined increase of 313 thousand government jobs, with 80 thousand of those jobs in the federal government, not counting the post office. Under Biden the total increase was 879 thousand.

Trade, Transportation and Utility

Retail trade employment during the first 39 months of the pre-Pandemic Trump economy dropped 440 thousand jobs, but more jobs in the courier and messenger sub sector Trumps pre-Pandemic economy created 216 thousand new jobs. The result undoubtedly reflects the general decline of sales at the cashiers check out in exchange for home delivery of Internet sales. The combined increase of courier and messenger jobs and 366 thousand new jobs supporting home delivery in the warehouse and storage sub sector during the first 39 months of the Trump administration were large but not as large as a recovery of trade jobs, modal transportation and utility employment during the Biden economy. The combined trade, transportation, and utility sector, a.k.a. NAICS 40, had 345 thousand new jobs during the pre-Pandemic Trump years but 465 thousand new jobs during the post Pandemic Biden economy.

In those sub sector industries where remote work is possible Pandemic job losses were small and quick to recover. These were primarily in finance and banking, and the professions such as law, accounting, computing, engineering and various management consulting and research industries. Job gains in these sub sectors were comparable for Trump and Biden as, for example, in management and technical consulting services where there were 164 thousand new jobs during the 39 pre-Pandemic months of the Trump administration, but 142 thousand new jobs during the 35 post-Pandemic months of the Biden administration. The Trump economy did somewhat better in goods production – natural resources, construction manufacturing - in the pre-Pandemic period than the Biden economy in the post-Pandemic period: Trump 1.082 million jobs, Biden 811 thousand jobs.  It should be mentioned that goods production was 21.96 percent of establishment production in 1990 that has declined continuously to 13.58 percent by 2025, a decline of 8.38 percent in a decline that shows no sign of ending.

The superior job performance during the Biden economy came in part because of much higher job growth, but especially in the jobs of the future. New jobs will have to come in health care and education as they have been. Otherwise, replacement jobs for the millions of manufacturing jobs corporate America has moved abroad have been coming in leisure and hospitality and government service and will have to continue given remaining service industries continue to grow so slowly they have a declining share of national employment.

During his first term Trump liked to brag about the new jobs on the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report and take credit for creating them. As his second term gets under way, he appears determined to enlarge the unemployed as fast as he can. For the new unemployed among us beware of ventilating politicians and union officials advising obedience to the “law.” Try hard to understand the significance of January 6.

The Vice President’s Job

The Vice President’s Job

Amendment Twelve of our U.S. Constitution defines the Vice Presidential office to be a person waiting to succeed as president, but for one reason: death of the President. We can excuse the founding fathers for wanting someone a heart beat away, as the saying goes, to become president given the primitive state of medicine and the opportunities for death in 1787. Still designating the next president in advance unmistakably resembles monarchy, or royal succession, not democracy. The founding fathers had nothing for their V-P to do, just like a British Prince, and so gave him, and lately her, a vote in the Senate in the event of a tie. As the office remains in 2025, the vice president gets a salary of $250,000 for a job that neither requires, nor allows, work defined in the Constitution.

From 1837 when Vice President Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson until 1989 when Vice President George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan, no vice president succeeded a president by election. Death, assassination and one resignation have given us six accidental presidents since 1877 that include Chester Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, and Gerald Ford. These six men, like all ambitious politicians, had to confront the reality that party bosses choose vice presidential candidates to "balance the ticket" as an aide to electing someone else. Once installed as vice president, they typically get assigned some empty task the President defines for them and then get shoved aside. They seldom give sign of independence and refuse to say anything controversial for fear of offending their President and jeopardizing a faint and evanescent hope of presidential office or a political career. Vice Presidents do too much of what they are told: Mike Pence to wit.

The vice-presidential office should be abolished. If we are a democracy we should prefer voting for all our presidents, but we should also make the best of what Amendment Twelve defines.  Our vice presidents have a unique place in American politics precisely because he or she lives a heart beat away and can become the president in an instant. That threat makes them hard to ignore if they do not choose to be ignored. Since they have no boss or defined political power and little or no future as a politician, they can and should get the attention they need to aggressively confront controversial matters suppressed or ignored by corporate America and the politicians they own and control. Democrats take note.

 

The Back to the Office Movement of 2025

The Back to the Office Movement of 2025

The motive for the Back to the Office movement touted by Trump and the Republicans comes to us as a legacy of slavery. Recall slaves worked as farm labor, domestic servants and gradually some of them as craftsmen trained by their owners to exploit as contract labor. Historian Ron Cherno reports George Washington hired out his surplus slaves.

The slaves of 1787 to 1860 made up a significant minority of the population in a country of small farmers, independent tradesmen but minimal manufacturing limited to textiles and some iron smelting. Before 1860 slaves were the working class given the white population primarily earned a living as farmers or self-employed entrepreneurs. Southern plantation owners needed a mass labor force to harvest cotton and tobacco, which concentrated employment among a limited number of wealthy employers. Where the modern corporation hires the working class for wages, the antebellum plantation owner had working class slaves paid-in-kind.

Recall slaves worked and lived under arbitrary rule in a system of forced labor; resistance brought immediate reprisal as physical abuse and corporal punishment from colonial times. These habits of arbitrary rule over slave labor have made it easy for America’s capitalists to expect obedience for the hired help long after slavery ended. It can be no surprise the south provides the greatest resistance to job rights and union organizing. The lingering effect of more than a century of arbitrary rule during slavery make it easy for contemporary capitalists to expect they have arbitrary authority over today’s employment and the right to devise various types of reprisals against working class demands for a measure of respect and the job rights to go with it. Slavery lives in the employer expectations of today.

The Back to the Office movement comes to us as an especially petty example of corporate contempt and class war politics. Recall how Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker had an easy time getting the angry working class to support his attack on school teachers as a lazy and overpaid group deserving wage cuts and union busting. Now we see how  Trump has an easy time getting his angry and contemptuous base to support the hardship and expense back to the office creates for government employees. The politics of contempt.

Since managers and supervisors have had laptop computers and the Internet to pressure employees to be available at home in the evening and on weekends for many years, the suggestion they must be at “work” 9 to 5 on weekdays appears especially idiotic. Commuting imposes financial costs on employees and also the time and energy squandered getting “there” that cannot be defended as good for productivity or profits. Never assume as economists like to do that corporate America wants to maximize profits; divided social classes generate inequality as a perk of the upper class.

America’s corporate autocrats have always known the arbitrary, abusive and demeaning use of authority directed down through a hierarchy to the farm fields, the shop floor, the cashiers check out, or the secretary’s desk brings anger and resistance from some, but fear and hesitation from others. Corporate America promotes these internal divisions when they look the other way and encourage or ignore the abuses of supervisors and managers. The more assertive will fight the abuses, while the timid and cowardly withdrawal or adopt the stance of their authoritarian employers. The historical record of union busting documents the deliberate use of intimidation and verbal deceit for dividing the working class.

Sowing division among the working class through dissension on the job has worked well as a continuous disruptive force in opposition to the working class and their political and economic solidarity. Journalist and author William Allen White wrote of the Republicans of the 1920’s era as “shocked to tears at anything that tore apart the identity of wealth with brains.” Such a view follows from an upper class hope for an acceptable justification for their wealth. Contrast that with today’s wealthy and well placed that delight in showing their contempt for the working class with a political campaign that includes Back to the Office.

 

 

Ludlow, Colorado

Ludlow, Colorado

I recently visited Ludlow, Colorado, the site of the violent coal mining strike of 1913-1914, which I believe had more violence and misconduct by government officials than any other strike in labor history; violence in addition to the usual violence of corporate management. No one lives there now and the buildings of the period are gone, although some rubble remains. For those like me who have studied what happened there it felt important to see the site and be physically oriented having previously seen only archival maps and pictures. For those familiar with this history I hope the pictures below may help orient you as they have for me. 

 

 

Picture 1 - The sign on County Road 44 about 13 miles north of Trinidad, Colorado and about a mile west of Interstate 27

 

 Picture 2 – The Ludlow Memorial that has the inscription “In Memory of the Men, Women and Children who lost their lives in Freedom’s Cause at Ludlow, Colorado April 20, 1914. Erected by the United Mine Workers of America.” It sits at the corner of the Ludlow Tent Colony and one of the underground pits remains just in front of the Memorial.

 

 

Picture 3 – The right side of the memorial has a plaque that designates the Ludlow Tent Colony site as a National Historic Landmark. It reads this site possesses national historical significance in illustrating the history of the United States of America. The plaque was placed on the monument in 2009 by the National Park Service, although the site is part of land purchased by the UMW in 1917.

 Picture 4 – The present railroad looking south from County Road 44 as it intersects with County Road 61.5. The railroad that went through Ludlow in 1914 was known as the Colorado and Southern. What remains today sits on the same right of way as part of the Burlington Northern-Santa Fe Railroad. Sidings and a passing track are gone. To the left of the tracks in the picture there was the depot, a Post Office, a saloon and a few other residences and stores, which are obviously gone. Across from the memorial and former tent colony is the site of a baseball field used by the striking miners and families. In the distance to the south a slight rise is the site of a former public water tank known as water tank hill where Militia machine gunned the camp.

 

Picture 5 - The present railroad looking north from County Road 44 as it intersects with County Road 61.5. To the right of the tracks there was railroad well and water tank, essential for locomotives in the steam era of 1913-1914. There was a house and barn as well, but all are gone now. A small distance farther down the track comes to a deep gully, or arroyo that remains. It was a place of defense and refuge during the day long attack.

 

Picture 6 – Is a picture of County Road 44 at a point in the Canyons east of Ludlow that have the remains of the Hastings and Delagua mines. The rail lines that served these mines are gone. The mines no longer operate and the valley areas have become grazing land for cattle ranching. Every arroyo crossing has a cattle guard.

 

Picture 7 – Nearby Trinidad, Colorado played a violent role in the Ludlow strike as the headquarters of National Guard troops, the Los Animas County sheriff and his deputies, managers of the coal mines, and the Baldwin-Felts mine guards.  The picture shows the S. Commercial Street of 2024 going up hill from where the train depot and tracks of the Colorado and Southern Railroad were in 1913-1914. The tracks remain as part of the BN-SF Railroad and even though the depot is long gone the Southwest Chief stops in Trinidad as part of Amtrak’s western routes. Interstate 27 runs on stilts to the right of the tracks.

 Picture 8 – Further up S. Commercial Street the Toltec Hotel remains looking much like it did in the pictures of 1913 when Colorado Deputy Labor Commissioner, Edwin Brake, got off a train to walk up the hill from the depot to the Toltec Hotel. As he approached shots rang out that killed union organizer, Gerald Lippiatt, in a confrontation with George Belcher and Walter Belk, both detectives of the Baldwin-Felts agency. In an often quoted passage Brake wrote to Governor Elias Ammons that “Trinidad was filled full of armed men, guards and detectives; that the killing of Lippiatt had created an intense feeling among miners and I apprehended if something was not done and done quickly, that there would be an outbreak there that would be disastrous.”

 

Picture 9 – Is a picture of the Southern Colorado Coal Miners Memorial of 1996 on E. Main Street in Trinidad.

 

Picture 10 – Is a picture to the left of the Miners Memorial of the statue of Greek miner and tent camp leader Louis Tikas, assassinated by National Guard troops toward the end of the Ludlow Massacre. All those who died are listed on the back of the monument at Ludlow. I list them in order from top to bottom: Louis Tikas, Age 30 Yrs; James Fyler, Age 43 Yrs; John Bartolotti, Age 45 Yrs; Charlie Costa, Age 31Yrs; Fedelina Costa, Age 27 Yrs; Onafrio Costa, Age 6 Yrs; Lucy Costa, Age 4 Yrs; Frank Rubino, Age 23 Yrs; Patria Valdez, Age 37 Yrs; Eulala Valdez, Age 8 Yrs; Mary Valdez, Age 7 Yrs; Elvira Valdez, Age 3 Mo; Joe Petrucci Age 4 ½ Yrs; Lucy Petrucci, Age 2 ½Yrs; Frank Petrucci, Age 6 Mo; William Snyder Jr, Age 11 Yrs; Rodgerlo Pedregone, Age 6 Yrs; Cloriva Pedregone, Age 4 Yrs.