Service Jobs - Trade and Rental Leasing

Trade and Rental and Leasing Services (revised fall 2024)

Retail trade, wholesale trade and rental and leasing services are defined separately in NAICS (North American Industrial Classification System) with data reported in their own sub sector. Retail establishments sell goods to final consumers. Wholesale establishments sell or arrange the sale of goods for resale, or sell or arrange the sale of raw materials or production supplies and equipment. Rental establishments rent or lease cars, trucks, RV’s, appliances, formal ware, costume ware, videos, health equipment, commercial machinery or industrial equipment, or just about anything you can imagine.

Combined jobs for the three services equal 22.292 million by 2024 a combination of jobs as big as all government service. Retail has 15.590 million jobs spread among 9 sub sectors; Wholesale trade has 6.116 million jobs in three sub sectors. Jobs in rental and leasing are 585.9 thousand with automobile, truck and RV rentals accounting for 227.6 thousand of those jobs. Combined wholesale and retail trade have growing employment but at a 33 year growth rate of .50 percent, below the 1.08 percent rate for total employment, which causes a decreasing percentage of wholesale and retail jobs in total employment. Using computer technology in trade, especially for barcodes and inventory management increases labor productivity. Retail and wholesale sales volumes per work hour are up and sometimes at rates comparable to productivity in manufacturing. Higher productivity in trade limits job growth, but so far not enough to decrease employment like it has in manufacturing.

Job growth and productivity depends on the type of service. Jobs at gasoline stations and convenience stores have increased modestly since 1990 with 982 thousand jobs by 2024. Food and beverage store employment, which is just over 87 percent grocery store employment; specialty food retailers like fruit and vegetable stores, fish mongers, and beer, wine and liquor stores have the remaining jobs  Jobs have leveled off at 3.238 million, but up from 1990 when they were 2.878 million. Salesmanship has limited success in the grocery business

At furniture stores, electronics stores and clothing stores sales depend more on salesmanship. Explaining and selling take time and so more jobs are needed at furniture stores, electronic stores, and clothing stores. Buyers may need to learn about available products and how they work, or the different product brands, or be told something fits right and looks great before they make up their mind. However, jobs at furniture and home furnishings retailers and electronics and appliance retailers peaked around 2000 and then began a slow but steady decline. Jobs here totaled 1.215 million in 2000, but only 848.3 thousand by 2024.

Some of the fastest retail job growth is coming at warehouse clubs and super centers and in used goods: thrift shops, consignment stores, Goodwill, the Salvation Army and flea markets. Employment at warehouse clubs and super centers is growing much faster than jobs at more specialized retail stores. In addition to job declines in home furnishings and appliance stores, jobs at clothing stores, paint stores, hardware stores also show job declines. Job growth data suggests warehouse clubs and super centers are replacing smaller more specialized retail.

Growth in jobs selling used goods continued during the recession that raised used goods employment to 204.9 thousand jobs at an annual growth rate of 3.82 percent. Job growth at used car dealers averaged 3.22 percent a year since 1990 but only .54 percent at new car dealers, although new car dealers continue to have much larger employment.

Retail sales on main street or at the mall or shopping center support local employment because people do not drive long distances to shop. Even though many shop while traveling or on vacation, shopping at stores away from home has minimal effect on retail employment. By the beginning of 2024 retail jobs have 9.99 percent of national establishment employment. In 1990 monthly retail employment averaged 12 percent of establishment employment. The low was 10.02 percent in 1956; the high was 12.21 percent in 1986, but now its 9.99 percent. Change comes slowly.

Employment data by state or metropolitan area tells the same story. The percent of retail jobs by state cluster tightly around the national average percent and the percent variation above and below that total is relatively small compared to other sub sectors. The best bet to forecast retail employment for a state is to take 9.99 percent of total establishment employment. Because retail jobs remain at roughly the same percentage of total employment the only way to have more retailing jobs is to have a bigger population to serve. For anyone in local government or the Chamber of Commerce who wants to boast local employment by luring in a big national retailer, the plan will not work. Before much time goes by the new retailer displaces existing retail jobs and its back to the national average percent.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 2.467 million wholesale and retail jobs need college degree skills out of 22.292 million jobs, or 11.1 percent of total employment. Not many jobs outside of management need college degree skills but there are a few. In wholesale trade sales representatives for scientific and technical products and sales engineers requires BA degree skills in the BLS skills designations. Sales Engineer, also known as manufacturer’s agent, often requires an engineering degree to explain and sell a particular technical product or line of products. Sales representatives for technical products had almost 176.6 thousand jobs at the beginning of 2024, sales engineers another 15 thousand.

In retail, 54 percent of pharmacists work in retail establishments, about 178.7 thousand jobs from drug stores to grocery stores. Optometrists have 5.5 thousand jobs in retail as part of selling glasses in combination with opticians, but almost 90 percent of these jobs go in the health care industry. Trade also has 145 thousand jobs in design: floral design, interior design, graphic design, and merchandise displayers.

Retail trade employs 89.5 percent of 3.685 million jobs as retail salesperson, which also has more jobs than any other American occupation; Another 1.088 million jobs are first line supervisors of sales workers who manage area sales workers with 965.8 thousand of their jobs in trade. Cashier holds second place with 3.299 million jobs and over 83.5 percent of those in trade. Cashiers jobs are not the same as retail salespersons. Cashiers run a cash register, take money and make change but they seldom do selling as the term describes the work of retail salesperson.

Electronic shopping over the Internet continues to grow at a rapid pace. Electronic shopping has the potential to break the link between retail jobs and the population it serves. To discourage electronic shopping mall designers and owners make sure malls have more than shopping; they have restaurants, fountains, benches, movie theatres, ice rinks and health clubs. Making shopping a pleasant social experience apparently works because there is little sign of any big change in America’s shopping habits.

Until 2021 the Bureau of Labor Statistics maintained establishment employment in a category defined as non-store retailers, which was almost entirely Internet shopping from establishments without stores, a.k.a. brick and mortar locations. However, the distinction between store and non-store retailers began to blur as more and more brick and mortar stores began to offer online sales and online retailers opened brick and mortar stores. After 2021 the Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped the non-store data series and returned to reporting data by categories determined by the products establishments carried and sold.  As America takes up electronic shopping in a bigger way more people will pay a visit to the unemployment office. Electronic shopping establishments need a higher percentage of customer service representatives, but fewer retail salespersons. Retail sales person reached an employment high of 4.613 million in 2015, but only 3.685 million in 2023. Talking and selling creates the jobs and there is not much talking on the Internet.

With a 134.453 million service jobs to divvy up, trade services and rental and leasing services gives us 22.292 million jobs, which is the biggest share of jobs at 19.4 percent of establishment employment.  Combining retail, wholesale, and rental and leasing jobs amounts to the jobs that support America’s shopping. Unfortunately, they have slow growth of .5 percent a year for the past 33 years. These services are unique among services because they have such a high share of jobs, but their slow growth guarantees they will decline as a share of U.S. employment. America shops, but not enough to keep America employed.  Americans must buy more services. We have 37.634 million service jobs left to fill. Give us service.