Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Labor Line

July 2014___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America's job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released July 3, 2014.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 288,000 to 138,780,000
Total Private Jobs up 262,000 to 116,872,000
Total Government Employment up 26,000 to 21,908,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 192,000 to 247,814,000
Civilian Labor Force up 81,000 to 155,694,000
Employed up 407,000 to 146,221,000
Employed Men up 343,000 to 77,653,000
Employed Women up 64,000 to 68,568,000
Unemployed down 325,000 to 9,474,000
Not in the Labor Force up 111,000 to 92,120,000

Unemployment Rate down .2 to 6.1%, or 9,474/155,694
Labor Force Participation Rate remained unchanged at 68.2%, or 155,694 /247,814

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was down 1.46 percent for 2013.

The June CPI report for the 12 months ending with May, shows the

CPI for All Items was up 2.1%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up 2.4%
CPI for Housing was up 2.6%
CPI for Apparel was up .8%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 1.8%
CPI for Medical Care was up 2.8%
CPI for Recreation was up .4%
CPI for Education was up 3.4%
CPI for Communication was down .2%

This Month's Establishment Jobs Press Report

LOOKING MORE LIKE A TREND

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its July report of jobs in June. The employed jumped 407 thousand for the month, an unusually large increase. The employment increase was a combination of a 325 thousand decrease in the unemployed and an 81 thousand increase of new entrants to the labor force who found jobs. Employed men were up 343 thousand, women 64 thousand. The unemployed are down to 9.5 million, below last month and below last month a year ago. Both the changes in the labor force and the unemployed worked to decrease the unemployment rate by .2 percent to 6.1 percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment jobs was up 288 thousand for June, a bigger increase than last month. The increase was 236 thousand more private sector service jobs combined with an increase of 26 thousand goods production jobs and 26 thousand more government service jobs.

The good production increase of 26 thousand was better than last month but still a modest increase. Manufacturing picked up 16 thousand new jobs and like many previous months more than half the increase was motor vehicles and transportation equipment. Machinery and peripheral computer equipment had most of the other gains. Food manufacturing was off 4.8 thousand jobs. Construction was up but only 6 thousand jobs, the same as last month but still a modest increase. Natural resources added a net of 4 thousand jobs.

Government was up 26 thousand jobs for June with all but 4 thousand of the new jobs in local government. The states and the federal government both added 2 thousand jobs. The local government's new jobs were mostly education, up 18 thousand. State education and private education also added nearly 7 thousand new jobs for an education total increase of 25 thousand.

Trade, transportation and utilities took first place for June job gains in the service sectors with 72 thousand new jobs. Retail added 40.2 thousand jobs with wholesale also up 15.1 thousand. Gains in the transportation sector came mostly in support activities, couriers and messengers and warehousing and storage and not modal transportation.

Professional and business services added 67 thousand jobs, usually big enough to take first place in services, but second place for June. Professional and technical services in accounting and bookkeeping services, architecture and engineering services, computer design and related services and management and technical consulting all added over 6 thousand jobs; management and technical consulting was first with 8.2 thousand new jobs. Legal services continue to lag behind in professional services, but this month added 1.2 thousand jobs. Administrative and support services were up 34.4, more than last month. New jobs at employment services were up 18.1 thousand. Services to buildings and dwellings were up 9.6 thousand jobs, triple from last month.

Health care added 34 thousand jobs, a modest increase although all health care sub sectors added jobs. Ambulatory care led the way with 13.1 thousand jobs, social services including childcare added another 12.7 thousand jobs. This month's growth rate in health employment of 2.24 percent fell below the 15-year growth rate of 2.42 percent.

Leisure and hospitality continued another month of steady job gains with 39 thousand more jobs, the same as last month. Month after month restaurants gains top the gains; this month with 32.8 thousand more jobs to add to gains in accommodations and arts, entertainment and recreation.

Information services added 9 thousand jobs, a large increase for a sector generally in decline. The biggest gain was in motion picture and sound recording services with 3.4 thousand new jobs. All the information sub-sectors had small gains: publishing, broadcasting, telecommunications, data procession, hosting and internet services.

Jobs for financial activities were up a net of 17 thousand, also an unusually large increase. Almost all of the increase was at insurance carriers and real estate services. Banking and securities traders continued with small decreases to offset the other gains.

The catchall categories in other services were the only combined service sectors with job losses. Repair and maintenance services were down 1.8 thousand jobs; personal services were down 1.7 thousand jobs; non-profit associations were down 1.8 thousand jobs.

The June increase of 288 thousand jobs raised the growth rate to a 2.5 percent annual rate with the increases coming across a broad range of services. Construction remains sluggish and manufacturing continues with gains at a slow rate. Even though many of the new jobs are in low paid services, the professional service sub-sectors continue to add jobs at above average rates of growth. June was the fifth month in a row of 200 thousand plus job gains. Lets be optimistic and call five months of job growth a long enough time to look like a trend.

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June Details

Non Farm Total +288
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from May by 288 thousand jobs for a(n) June total of 138.780 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 288 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of 2.50%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning June 2013 was +1.83%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning June 2009 was +1.17%; from 15 years ago beginning June 1999 it was .48%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000's of jobs

1. Natural Resources +4
Natural Resources including logging and mining were up 4 thousand from May at 907 thousand jobs in June. An increase of 4 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +5.32 percent. Natural resource jobs are up 43 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990's totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America's job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .7 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +6
Construction jobs were up 6 thousand from May at 6.015 million jobs in June. An increase of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.20 percent. Construction jobs are up 186 thousand for the last 12 months. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.02%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.3 percent of non farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +16
Manufacturing jobs were up 16 thousand from May at 12.121 million jobs in June. An increase of 16 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.59 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 130 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.66%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.7 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +72
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was up by 72 thousand jobs from May to 26.404 million jobs in June. These jobs tend to increase at a slower rate than the total of non-farm jobs, but an increase of 72 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.28 percent. Jobs are up by 593 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +1.17 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 19.0 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services +9
Information Services employment were up by 9 from May to 2.657 million jobs in June. An increase of 9 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.08 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are down by 28 thousand for the last 12 months. Monthly employment in information services gyrates month to month and has been doing so for over a decade. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 and continues below 2.7 million now. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +17
Financial Activities were up 17 thousand jobs from May to 7.944 million in June. An increase of 17 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.57 percent. Jobs are up 59 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been declining with negative annual growth rates, a 5 year growth rate of +.31 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of
+.16 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.7 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +67
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 67 thousand from May to 19.212 million in June. An increase of 67 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.20 percent. Jobs are up 647 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was 3.18 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 13.9 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private +25
Education jobs went up 25 thousand jobs from May at 13.613 million in June. These include public and private education. An increase of 25 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.18 percent. Jobs are up 119 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals 1.19 percent, faster than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 9.8 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +34
Health care jobs were up 34 thousand from May to 18.066 million in June. An increase of 34 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.24 percent. Jobs are up 325 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was below long term trends and more than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +1.83 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.42 percent annual growth rate for 15 years, a rate not quite double the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 13.0 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +39
Leisure and hospitality jobs went up 39 thousand from May to 14.642 million in June. An increase of 39 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.20 percent. Jobs are up 393 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 2.29%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.6 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990's to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other -6
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went down 6 thousand from May to 5.503 million in June. A decrease of 6 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -1.31 percent. Jobs are up 38 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +.48 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 4.0 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +6
Government service employment was up 6 thousand jobs from May to 11.692 million in June. An increase of 6 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.63 percent. Jobs are down 6 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of .29 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.4 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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