Labor Line

February 2025_________________________ 

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

This month's job and employment summary data are below and this month's inflation data is below that. 

The latest blog entry Trump versus Biden on Jobs

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The Establishment Job Report with data released February 7 2025.

Current Job and Employment Data 

Jobs

Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 143,000 to 159,069,000

Total Private Jobs up 111,000 to 135,479,000

Total Government Employment up 32,000 to 23,590,000 Note 

Civilian Non-Institutional Population Annual BLS Adjustment to 272,685,000

Civilian Labor Force - to 170,744,000

Employed - to 163,895,000

Employed Men - to 88,733,000

Employed Women - to 77,162,000

Unemployed - to 6,849,000

Not in the Labor Force - to 101,941,000

Unemployment Rate went down .1% to 4.0% or 6,849/170,744

Labor Force Participation Rate went up .1% to 62.6%, or 170,744/272,685

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 2.9 percent for 2024. 

The CPI February report for the 12 months ending with January shows the 

 CPI for All Items was up 3.1% 

CPI for Food and Beverages was up 2.4% 

CPI for Housing was up 3.9% 

CPI for Apparel was up .9% 

CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 3.2% 

CPI for Medical Care was up 2.6% 

CPI for Recreation was up 1.6% 

CPI for Education was up 3.8% 

CPI for Communication was down 1.9% 

 This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report

A SO-SO MONTH

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its February report for jobs in January. The annual civilian population adjustment found a 3.047 million increase in the adult civilian population. Distributing that increase means an increase of 2.197 million in the labor force, 2.234 million more employment. The remainder of the population increase did not enter the labor force. A drop of 37 thousand of the unemployed left the unemployment rate down .1 percent at 4.0%. The participation rate increased .1% to 62.6 percent.

 The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 143 thousand for January. The increase was 111 thousand more jobs in the private service sector combined with no change in jobs from goods production. The total of 111 thousand jobs gained in the private sector combined with a(n) increase of 32 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production had a net change of zero jobs. Natural resources had a loss of 7 thousand jobs; construction added 4 thousand jobs and there were 3 thousand more manufacturing jobs. Construction of buildings added 3.0 thousand jobs and specialty trade contractors added a net 3.5 thousand of the construction jobs with the non-residential specialty contractors adding 5.6 thousand jobs combined with residential specialty trade contractors losing 2.1 thousand jobs. There was a decrease of 2.3 thousand jobs in heavy and engineering construction.

Manufacturing employment was up 3 thousand jobs after last month’s losses. Durable goods were down 3 thousand jobs. Wood products, non-metallic mineral, and fabricated metal products all had job gains of nearly 7 thousand jobs but car and truck manufacturing were down 9.7 thousand jobs. Non-durable goods production did better, adding 6 thousand jobs. There were more jobs in food processing, beverage, tobacco and leather good production and even apparel and paper manufacturing added a few thousand jobs. There were other small job losses.

Government service employment increased 32 thousand jobs. Federal government employment was up 9 thousand jobs while state government added 2 thousand jobs and local government added 21 thousand more. Government jobs excluding education increased by 12.7 thousand. Government jobs in education were up 10.0 thousand this month, which was 10.8 thousand new jobs in local education offset by a loss of 800 jobs in state education. Private sector education was off 4.4 thousand seasonally adjusted jobs, which brings the total of 5.6 thousand new jobs in education, a small increase.

Health care took first place for private service sector job gains with 66 thousand new jobs, down slightly from the last two months. All four of the health care subsectors had more jobs with ambulatory care adding 16.6 thousand jobs; hospitals added 13.9 thousand jobs, a good month for hospitals; nursing and residential care were up 13.2 thousand jobs. Social assistance services added 22.3 thousand jobs, but with 20.1 thousand new jobs coming in individual and family services. The growth rate for health care was down from last month to 3.45 percent, above the average of 2.15 percent per month of the last 15 years.

Trade, transportation and utilities had 38 thousand new jobs, a smaller gain than last month. While wholesale trade jobs had only 2 thousand new jobs retail trade added 34.3 thousand jobs, although less than last month. Warehouse clubs and super centers had 27.8 thousand of the jobs. Transportation barely increased with only 1.1 thousand new jobs. Truck transportation and transit jobs were up 7.9 thousand jobs offset by job losses in warehousing and storage and couriers and messengers.

Professional and business services dropped 11 thousand jobs, after last month’s modest gain. The professional and technical services subsector of it added 17.1 thousand jobs; management of companies lost 2.5 thousand jobs. The third sub sector, administrative and support services including waste management, also lost jobs, down 25.1 thousand. Among professional and technical services, computer design and related services added 13.7 thousand jobs, a reverse of last month’s decline; architecture and engineering services added 7.1 thousand jobs. Management consulting declined 10.4 thousand jobs, a rare drop. There were small changes for remaining sub sectors, much like last month.

Among administrative support services, the primary job losses came in employment services down 15 thousand jobs; services to buildings dropped another 8.5 thousand jobs, and business support services were down another 5.4 thousand jobs among small changes in other administrative support sub sectors.

Leisure and hospitality lost a net 3 thousand jobs, after last month’s gains. Arts, entertainment and recreation added a net 14.8 thousand jobs with amusements, gambling and recreation up 15 thousand jobs. Accommodations lost 1.8 thousand jobs and restaurants were down another 15.7 thousand; restaurants usually generate jobs.

Information services had a net of 2 thousand new jobs. Motion picture and sounding recording had 1.8 thousand jobs and publishing added another 2.5 thousand, but job gains were offset by a loss of 7.9 thousand jobs in the telecommunications industry. Financial activities added 7 thousand jobs where finance and insurance added 3.4 thousand jobs and there were another 3.9 thousand jobs in real estate and rental and leasing services. The category, other, added 17 thousand jobs, a large gain for a month. Repair and maintenance services added 9.9 thousand of the jobs. Personal and laundry added 4.1 thousand jobs while non-profit membership associations added 3.0 thousand jobs.

The economy added 143 thousand jobs for January, a modest increase. Establishment employment in January was 159.069 million with an annual growth rate of 1.08 percent, barely population growth. Health care continued its dominant place in job growth with 46 percent of new jobs this month; government job growth continued this month and government jobs continue to be an important source of employment; Trump notwithstanding. This month’s job total is 2.020 million above January a year ago and 4.001 million jobs above January two years ago.

January Details 

Non Farm Total +143

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from December by 143 thousand jobs for a(n) January total of 159.069 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 143 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of +1.08% The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning January 2024 was +1.29%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning January 2020 was +.88%; from 15 years ago beginning January 2010 it was +1.36%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs 

1. Natural Resources -7

Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining decreased 7 thousand from December with 615 thousand jobs in January. A decrease of 7 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -13.5 percent.   Natural resource jobs were down 17 thousand from a year ago. Jobs in 2000 averaged around 600 thousand with little prospect for growth.  This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .4 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +4

Construction jobs were up 4 thousand from December with 8.291 million jobs in January. An increase of 4 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.58 percent.  Construction jobs are up 178 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is 1.94%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 5.2 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +3

Manufacturing jobs were up 3 thousand from December with 12.761 million jobs in January. An increase of 3 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.28 percent.  Manufacturing jobs were down for the last 12 months by 105 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is -.05%; for the last 15 years by +.72%. Manufacturing ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.1 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +38

Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment were up 38 thousand jobs from December with 29.059 million jobs in January. An increase of 38 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.57 percent. Jobs are up by 240 thousand for last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +.85 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.2 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services +2

Information Services jobs were up 2 thousand from December with 2.945 million jobs in January.  An increase of 2 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.82 percent. (Note 2 below)  Jobs are down by 21 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 and has slowly come back to 3.0 million in the last decade. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +7

Financial Activities jobs were up by 7 thousand jobs from December to 9.220 million in January. An increase of 7 thousand jobs for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.91 percent. Jobs are up 55 thousand for the last 12 months.  (Note 3 below) This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +.82 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +1.18 percent. Financial activities rank 8th of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business and Professional Services -11

Business and Professional Service jobs went down 11 thousand from December to 22.598 million in January. A decrease of 11 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.58 percent. Jobs are down 69 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was +1.06 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was 2nd in 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.4 percent of establishment employment. 

8. Education including public and private +6

Education jobs were up 6 thousand jobs from December at 14.802 million in January. An increase of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.45 percent. These include public and private education. Jobs are up 195 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.60 percent. Education ranks 5th among 12 sectors with 9.1 percent of establishment jobs

9. Health Care +66

Health care jobs were up 66 thousand from December to 23.010 million in January. An increase of 66 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.45 percent. Jobs are up 910 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6)  The health care long term 15 year growth rate has been +2.15 percent lately compared to +3.45 percent for this month’s jobs. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 14.3 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality -3

Leisure and hospitality jobs were down 3 thousand from December to 16.978 million in January.  (note 7) A decrease of 3 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.21 percent. Jobs are up 258 thousand for the last 12 months. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.7 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up to 7th from 4th in the pandemic decline.

11. Other +17

Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations were up 17 thousand from December to 6.021 million in January. An increase of 17 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.40 percent. Jobs are up 104 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 8) Other services had +.82 percent growth for the last 15 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.7 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +22

Government service employment went up 22 thousand from December at 12.769 million jobs in January. An increase of 22 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.04 percent. Jobs are up 305 thousand for the last 12 months.  (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly with a 15 year growth rate of +.38 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.0 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

Sector Notes__________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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The Vice President’s Job

The Vice President’s Job

Amendment Twelve of our U.S. Constitution defines the Vice Presidential office to be a person waiting to succeed as president, but for one reason: death of the President. We can excuse the founding fathers for wanting someone a heart beat away, as the saying goes, to become president given the primitive state of medicine and the opportunities for death in 1787. Still designating the next president in advance unmistakably resembles monarchy, or royal succession, not democracy. The founding fathers had nothing for their V-P to do, just like a British Prince, and so gave him, and lately her, a vote in the Senate in the event of a tie. As the office remains in 2025, the vice president gets a salary of $250,000 for a job that neither requires, nor allows, work defined in the Constitution.

From 1837 when Vice President Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson until 1989 when Vice President George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan, no vice president succeeded a president by election. Death, assassination and one resignation have given us six accidental presidents since 1877 that include Chester Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, and Gerald Ford. These six men, like all ambitious politicians, had to confront the reality that party bosses choose vice presidential candidates to "balance the ticket" as an aide to electing someone else. Once installed as vice president, they typically get assigned some empty task the President defines for them and then get shoved aside. They seldom give sign of independence and refuse to say anything controversial for fear of offending their President and jeopardizing a faint and evanescent hope of presidential office or a political career. Vice Presidents do too much of what they are told: Mike Pence to wit.

The vice-presidential office should be abolished. If we are a democracy we should prefer voting for all our presidents, but we should also make the best of what Amendment Twelve defines.  Our vice presidents have a unique place in American politics precisely because he or she lives a heart beat away and can become the president in an instant. That threat makes them hard to ignore if they do not choose to be ignored. Since they have no boss or defined political power and little or no future as a politician, they can and should get the attention they need to aggressively confront controversial matters suppressed or ignored by corporate America and the politicians they own and control. Democrats take note.

 

The Back to the Office Movement of 2025

The Back to the Office Movement of 2025

The motive for the Back to the Office movement touted by Trump and the Republicans comes to us as a legacy of slavery. Recall slaves worked as farm labor, domestic servants and gradually some of them as craftsmen trained by their owners to exploit as contract labor. Historian Ron Cherno reports George Washington hired out his surplus slaves.

The slaves of 1787 to 1860 made up a significant minority of the population in a country of small farmers, independent tradesmen but minimal manufacturing limited to textiles and some iron smelting. Before 1860 slaves were the working class given the white population primarily earned a living as farmers or self-employed entrepreneurs. Southern plantation owners needed a mass labor force to harvest cotton and tobacco, which concentrated employment among a limited number of wealthy employers. Where the modern corporation hires the working class for wages, the antebellum plantation owner had working class slaves paid-in-kind.

Recall slaves worked and lived under arbitrary rule in a system of forced labor; resistance brought immediate reprisal as physical abuse and corporal punishment from colonial times. These habits of arbitrary rule over slave labor have made it easy for America’s capitalists to expect obedience for the hired help long after slavery ended. It can be no surprise the south provides the greatest resistance to job rights and union organizing. The lingering effect of more than a century of arbitrary rule during slavery make it easy for contemporary capitalists to expect they have arbitrary authority over today’s employment and the right to devise various types of reprisals against working class demands for a measure of respect and the job rights to go with it. Slavery lives in the employer expectations of today.

The Back to the Office movement comes to us as an especially petty example of corporate contempt and class war politics. Recall how Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker had an easy time getting the angry working class to support his attack on school teachers as a lazy and overpaid group deserving wage cuts and union busting. Now we see how  Trump has an easy time getting his angry and contemptuous base to support the hardship and expense back to the office creates for government employees. The politics of contempt.

Since managers and supervisors have had laptop computers and the Internet to pressure employees to be available at home in the evening and on weekends for many years, the suggestion they must be at “work” 9 to 5 on weekdays appears especially idiotic. Commuting imposes financial costs on employees and also the time and energy squandered getting “there” that cannot be defended as good for productivity or profits. Never assume as economists like to do that corporate America wants to maximize profits; divided social classes generate inequality as a perk of the upper class.

America’s corporate autocrats have always known the arbitrary, abusive and demeaning use of authority directed down through a hierarchy to the farm fields, the shop floor, the cashiers check out, or the secretary’s desk brings anger and resistance from some, but fear and hesitation from others. Corporate America promotes these internal divisions when they look the other way and encourage or ignore the abuses of supervisors and managers. The more assertive will fight the abuses, while the timid and cowardly withdrawal or adopt the stance of their authoritarian employers. The historical record of union busting documents the deliberate use of intimidation and verbal deceit for dividing the working class.

Sowing division among the working class through dissension on the job has worked well as a continuous disruptive force in opposition to the working class and their political and economic solidarity. Journalist and author William Allen White wrote of the Republicans of the 1920’s era as “shocked to tears at anything that tore apart the identity of wealth with brains.” Such a view follows from an upper class hope for an acceptable justification for their wealth. Contrast that with today’s wealthy and well placed that delight in showing their contempt for the working class with a political campaign that includes Back to the Office.