Trump versus Biden on Jobs
To compare jobs in the economy during the Trump years of 2017 to 2021 with the Biden years of 2021 to 2025 requires allowing for the job losses from the Pandemic quarantine, which recall started in the early spring of 2020. In the jobs data for March 2020 establishment employment reached 150.898 million jobs. A month later in April 2020 establishment employment declined to only 130.421 million jobs, a decline of 20.477 million jobs.
Both presidents were in office for 48 months, the usual four year term. In the first 39 pre-Pandemic months of Trump’s first term in office, establishment employment increased by 5.262 million jobs. The Pandemic job decline of April 2020 and slow job recovery restored the Pandemic job losses by February 2022, the thirteenth month into the Biden Administration. While many continued to wear face masks and be wary of spreading Covid, the pharmaceutical industry had a vaccine available and jobs had returned to their pre-Pandemic total and a semblance of normality. This leaves the last 35 months of the Biden administration as a normal and comparable period for review with the first 39 months of the Trump administration.
In the first 13 months of the Biden Administration jobs increased just under 7.960 million to 150.876 million jobs, which restored the remaining Pandemic job losses left from the Trump term. In the last 35 months of the Biden administration beginning with February 2022, national employment increased by 8.660 million jobs. Therefore, the Trump economy that generated 5.262 million new jobs during the 39 months the pre-Pandemic months did not do as well creating jobs as the post Pandemic Biden economy that generated 8.660 million jobs in 35 months.
The Biden administration’s superior performance on jobs resulted primarily from a selection of industries where the Biden economy did much better.
Health Care and Education
Start with health care where Trump created 1.326 million health care jobs in 39 months while the Biden economy created 2.691 million jobs in 35 months. Move to education where the Trump economy created 90 thousand jobs in private education, while the Biden administration created 256 thousand jobs. In state supported public education the Trump economy created 84 thousand jobs while the Biden economy created 192 thousand jobs. In the local public schools the Trump economy created 130 thousand new jobs where the Biden economy created 457 thousand new jobs.
Leisure and Hospitality
Leisure and hospitality did much better during the Biden Administration and in all its sub sectors: performing arts, spectator sports, museums, historical sites, amusements, gambling, recreation, accommodations, restaurants and related food services. The combined changes were 284 thousand more jobs for Trump in 39 months while the Biden economy added 1.527 million jobs in the last 35 months of his administration.
Government
In government employment, excluding education, Biden and the Biden economy created more jobs and did so in all three levels of government: federal, state and local. The first 39 months of the Trump administration brought a combined increase of 313 thousand government jobs, with 80 thousand of those jobs in the federal government, not counting the post office. Under Biden the total increase was 879 thousand.
Trade, Transportation and Utility
Retail trade employment during the first 39 months of the pre-Pandemic Trump economy dropped 440 thousand jobs, but more jobs in the courier and messenger sub sector Trumps pre-Pandemic economy created 216 thousand new jobs. The result undoubtedly reflects the general decline of sales at the cashiers check out in exchange for home delivery of Internet sales. The combined increase of courier and messenger jobs and 366 thousand new jobs supporting home delivery in the warehouse and storage sub sector during the first 39 months of the Trump administration were large but not as large as a recovery of trade jobs, modal transportation and utility employment during the Biden economy. The combined trade, transportation, and utility sector, a.k.a. NAICS 40, had 345 thousand new jobs during the pre-Pandemic Trump years but 465 thousand new jobs during the post Pandemic Biden economy.
In those sub sector industries where remote work is possible Pandemic job losses were small and quick to recover. These were primarily in finance and banking, and the professions such as law, accounting, computing, engineering and various management consulting and research industries. Job gains in these sub sectors were comparable for Trump and Biden as, for example, in management and technical consulting services where there were 164 thousand new jobs during the 39 pre-Pandemic months of the Trump administration, but 142 thousand new jobs during the 35 post-Pandemic months of the Biden administration. The Trump economy did somewhat better in goods production – natural resources, construction manufacturing - in the pre-Pandemic period than the Biden economy in the post-Pandemic period: Trump 1.082 million jobs, Biden 811 thousand jobs. It should be mentioned that goods production was 21.96 percent of establishment production in 1990 that has declined continuously to 13.58 percent by 2025, a decline of 8.38 percent in a decline that shows no sign of ending.
The superior job performance
during the Biden economy came in part because of much higher job growth, but especially
in the jobs of the future. New jobs will have to come in health care and
education as they have been. Otherwise, replacement jobs for the millions of
manufacturing jobs corporate America has moved abroad have been coming in
leisure and hospitality and government service and will have to continue given
remaining service industries continue to grow so slowly they have a declining
share of national employment.
During his first term Trump
liked to brag about the new jobs on the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs
report and take credit for creating them. As his second term gets under way, he
appears determined to enlarge the unemployed as fast as he can. For the new
unemployed among us beware of ventilating politicians and union officials
advising obedience to the “law.” Try hard to understand the significance of
January 6.
