The New Geography of Jobs, Enrico Moretti, (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2012), 249 pages, $28.00
The New Geography of Jobs begins telling readers some anecdotal stories of people and cities that prospered and people and cities that did not. About midway into the Introduction we read “In this book, the focus is almost entirely on the forces that drive long-run trends.”
The book has seven chapters following the Introduction. Chapter 1 begins describing the long demise of manufacturing as staggering and “one of the most important facts in America’s economic history of the past six decades.” After a few pages the conversation turns to causes and what happened, but as the conversation moves along we read terms from economics like comparative advantage and the paradox of economic growth. As the chapter ends the decline becomes the inevitable result of markets, “The Tides of History.”
Pessimism turns to optimism in chapter two titled Smart Labor: Microchips, Movies, and Multipliers. The chapter starts with a story of Dominic Glynn of Pixar Animation studios as an example of talent and creativity that brings innovation and new jobs. Moretti tells readers the Internet sector has grown 634 percent in the past decade, but without telling us how many new jobs that created, nor providing a North American Industry Classification name or code that allows us to look up the government data he mentions.
As I read along I looked for ways to believe that jobs gains from innovation will be bigger than job losses in manufacturing, but I found more stories. Some are about innovators, some about places, others about economists who did studies, one about 300 percent growth of jobs in life science research, another about traded and non-traded sectors, and another about yoga, which became big business after actress Jennifer Aniston declared in People magazine that it “completely changed my life.” None of the stories helped me believe new jobs from innovation will meet America’s job requirements.
The next two chapters of eighty pages continue discussing people, companies, and new innovations in different cities. It starts with the success of Seattle and then on to Silicon Valley and other places. Several pages of charts associate cities with salaries and the percentage of workers with college degrees. Moretti finds a growing divergence of economic success among cities, which he associates with differences in life expectancy, family stability, political participation, and charitable giving.
Moretti labels successful hubs brain hubs that succeed from the benefits of agglomeration and thick labor markets, a term I never heard before, but he defines thick labor markets with a parable of Internet dating. In the parable one dating site has 100 women and 100 men, but another has 10 men and 10 women. Even though ratios are the same the “perfect” date is more likely at the bigger site. He concludes “Thick labor markets are better at matching employers with workers, and the ultimate match is closer to the ideal match.” With this we cannot disagree, even if we live in Paducah where the labor market may be thin.
Chapters five and six continue with short vignettes of success and failure and the inequality it generates for people and places. Moretti worries the lack of mobility and housing gentrification contributes to inequality and suggests moving vouchers for the unemployed. He wonders if there is help for poor cities like Flint and then begins a discussion of biotechnology and the benefits it brought to Cambridge, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area but he says “they were lucky.” They had “academic stars.” He wonders if universities can be an engine of growth but concludes “Overall my research suggests that the presence of a university is on average associated with a better-educated labor force and higher local wages.”
The last chapter wonders if America will prosper or decline, but predicts “cities with a large percentage of interconnected, highly educated workers will become the new factories where ideas and knowledge are forged.” After reviewing the returns to education back to 1964, the high cost of college, America’s low math scores, and the benefits of immigration, he ends citing Jane Jacobs from long ago and the process of destruction and regeneration, but no prediction on prosperity.
The book reads like an unedited transcript of cocktail conversation with topics and thoughts that zig n’ zag from one to another. Each paragraph turns into a new adventure. Questions raised in the text were seldom developed to any conclusion and the few that were often sound trivial. The text is sprinkled with economic terms along with superficial explanations that are unnecessary for economists but brief and inadequate for those who are not.
Despite dropping dozens of names and repeated references to data and studies there are no numbered footnotes anywhere in the text. Instead some notes at the back are listed by page number forcing readers to waste their time scanning notes to find if text was cited, or scanning text to find a note. Many notes have incomplete citations anyway: a title or author but no publisher, journal, page number or date. I am accustomed to standard footnote citations; I don’t believe in sources I cannot find.
I cannot recommend this book.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Monday, October 15, 2012
The Follies of Gold
The Republican platform includes a plank to form a commission to study a “metallic standard” for money. Possibly the politicos want to attract the Ron Paul vote since he has continued to advocate a gold standard as a form of economic discipline. I don’t know much about the politics of the gold, but I know a commission will be a waste of time and there will not be a gold standard in the United States or anywhere else.
Many years ago, before banks, gold circulated as a medium of exchange, but it was heavy and inconvenient from the beginning. Enterprising entrepreneurs opened gold depositories where people could store their gold safely. Depositors received a paper certificate as proof of their deposit.
If a depositor decided to buy a horse and wagon he would mosey over to the depository to make a withdrawal. Very quickly everyone got tired of going to a depository just to do a simple transaction. Soon the paper certificates began to circulate as money instead of the gold.
Very quickly the people running the depositories began to notice that buyers making withdrawals were followed by sellers making deposits. Then they realized they did not need to keep all of the gold deposits in the vaults to cover their customer withdrawals since withdrawals were followed by deposits. By keeping records of deposits and withdrawals they learned the maximum percentage, or maximum fraction, of the gold in the vaults they could loan out at interest without jeopardizing their ability to cover withdrawals of their customers.
That was the birth of the modern fractional banking system used by the United States and every other country in the universe. Banks hold a fraction of their reserves to pay on the deposits of their customers. From the beginning there were banking cheats and chiselers who made loans beyond the maximum safe percentage and were unable to cover their customer withdrawals. Banking abuses brought efforts to regulate banks; legal reserve requirements were imposed.
In 1999 the Clinton administration signed off on a banking deregulation bill pushed by the banking industry. The cheats and chiselers returned and just as before they were unable to cover their customer account withdrawals and had to be bailed out by the government and the Federal Reserve Bank.
Gold is a commodity and like any other commodity it fluctuates in price. When gold is money then changes in the price of gold will ripple through the economy causing inflation or deflation. From the beginning it was necessary for the government to stabilize the price of gold by holding large inventories to sell in a shortage, or buy in a surplus. Managing gold inventories was subject to the erratic success or failure of mining ventures and the erratic whim of hoarders and speculators.
In 1933, the United States left the gold standard, announcing it would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed price. Banks were allowed to designate other assets than gold as reserves, which make it easier to manage the money supply. Other countries followed and in 1971 the gold exchange standard for international payments ended by mutual agreement of the international community.
Using gold as money creates many problems that have to be solved, but has no benefits of any kind. It does not impose discipline because money is always a human decision. Humans decide what it is and how much of it there will be. The Republicans know this, but they are willing to pander for the Ron Raul vote. What Ron Paul thinks he is doing I have no idea, but gold as money is dead.
Many years ago, before banks, gold circulated as a medium of exchange, but it was heavy and inconvenient from the beginning. Enterprising entrepreneurs opened gold depositories where people could store their gold safely. Depositors received a paper certificate as proof of their deposit.
If a depositor decided to buy a horse and wagon he would mosey over to the depository to make a withdrawal. Very quickly everyone got tired of going to a depository just to do a simple transaction. Soon the paper certificates began to circulate as money instead of the gold.
Very quickly the people running the depositories began to notice that buyers making withdrawals were followed by sellers making deposits. Then they realized they did not need to keep all of the gold deposits in the vaults to cover their customer withdrawals since withdrawals were followed by deposits. By keeping records of deposits and withdrawals they learned the maximum percentage, or maximum fraction, of the gold in the vaults they could loan out at interest without jeopardizing their ability to cover withdrawals of their customers.
That was the birth of the modern fractional banking system used by the United States and every other country in the universe. Banks hold a fraction of their reserves to pay on the deposits of their customers. From the beginning there were banking cheats and chiselers who made loans beyond the maximum safe percentage and were unable to cover their customer withdrawals. Banking abuses brought efforts to regulate banks; legal reserve requirements were imposed.
In 1999 the Clinton administration signed off on a banking deregulation bill pushed by the banking industry. The cheats and chiselers returned and just as before they were unable to cover their customer account withdrawals and had to be bailed out by the government and the Federal Reserve Bank.
Gold is a commodity and like any other commodity it fluctuates in price. When gold is money then changes in the price of gold will ripple through the economy causing inflation or deflation. From the beginning it was necessary for the government to stabilize the price of gold by holding large inventories to sell in a shortage, or buy in a surplus. Managing gold inventories was subject to the erratic success or failure of mining ventures and the erratic whim of hoarders and speculators.
In 1933, the United States left the gold standard, announcing it would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed price. Banks were allowed to designate other assets than gold as reserves, which make it easier to manage the money supply. Other countries followed and in 1971 the gold exchange standard for international payments ended by mutual agreement of the international community.
Using gold as money creates many problems that have to be solved, but has no benefits of any kind. It does not impose discipline because money is always a human decision. Humans decide what it is and how much of it there will be. The Republicans know this, but they are willing to pander for the Ron Raul vote. What Ron Paul thinks he is doing I have no idea, but gold as money is dead.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
The Chicago Teacher’s Strike
Growing opinion from outside of teaching expects teachers to produce a quality product measured by student test scores. The use of test scores in teacher evaluation was a primary contention for teachers in the Chicago teacher strike.
Manufactured products fail as a result of defective materials and workmanship and so the logic follows that students must fail from defective teaching and poor teachers. The solution reformers want will adjust teacher salary to be in proportion to their student’s test scores: a merit pay plan.
Close to 100 percent of career teachers understand that merit pay plans introduce personal competition into teaching which will detract and harm their efforts to collaborate and work together. Second grade teachers realize their students are last year’s first graders and next year’s third graders. Third grade teachers realize their students are last year’s second graders and so on. If they all work together and help each other, and the new teachers, then the skills and test scores of all students might rise as students go from teacher to teacher and grade to grade.
However, some test scores will always be higher than others. Merit pay proposals and plans that reward faculty based on the highest test scores are like sports competition where there is a winner and a loser, but no incentive to work together. Pay plans that help education and improve test scores will need to recognize that teachers do not work in isolation and should not be treated as if they do.
Low entry salaries for teachers help school systems conserve funds while new teachers decide if they will take the time and make the effort to learn teaching and become professionals. Many do not, but those who do find that salary schedules reward experience and evidence of continuing education. Close to a 100 percent of teachers support evaluations based on their education and their easily assessable effort to use and develop class material, and to work and collaborate with other teachers to improve student learning across all grades and classes. Those who stay under this system can expect to earn a middle class salary by the middle of their career and more if they complete a master’s degree.
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel wants to change that and make forty percent of teacher evaluations based on test scores. In a massive school system like Chicago test scores will vary by attendance and drop out rates, parental involvement, family income and some by teacher skill and experience. Teachers know the forty percent of their evaluation based on test scores is high enough to threaten the economic status and professional standing as teachers. It also happens to be bad for education.
Manufactured products fail as a result of defective materials and workmanship and so the logic follows that students must fail from defective teaching and poor teachers. The solution reformers want will adjust teacher salary to be in proportion to their student’s test scores: a merit pay plan.
Close to 100 percent of career teachers understand that merit pay plans introduce personal competition into teaching which will detract and harm their efforts to collaborate and work together. Second grade teachers realize their students are last year’s first graders and next year’s third graders. Third grade teachers realize their students are last year’s second graders and so on. If they all work together and help each other, and the new teachers, then the skills and test scores of all students might rise as students go from teacher to teacher and grade to grade.
However, some test scores will always be higher than others. Merit pay proposals and plans that reward faculty based on the highest test scores are like sports competition where there is a winner and a loser, but no incentive to work together. Pay plans that help education and improve test scores will need to recognize that teachers do not work in isolation and should not be treated as if they do.
Low entry salaries for teachers help school systems conserve funds while new teachers decide if they will take the time and make the effort to learn teaching and become professionals. Many do not, but those who do find that salary schedules reward experience and evidence of continuing education. Close to a 100 percent of teachers support evaluations based on their education and their easily assessable effort to use and develop class material, and to work and collaborate with other teachers to improve student learning across all grades and classes. Those who stay under this system can expect to earn a middle class salary by the middle of their career and more if they complete a master’s degree.
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel wants to change that and make forty percent of teacher evaluations based on test scores. In a massive school system like Chicago test scores will vary by attendance and drop out rates, parental involvement, family income and some by teacher skill and experience. Teachers know the forty percent of their evaluation based on test scores is high enough to threaten the economic status and professional standing as teachers. It also happens to be bad for education.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Detropia
Detropia: A Film Review
I recently saw Detropia, a new independent film making the rounds of America’s many film festivals. Detropia is a film of contrasts. As viewers we see the advanced decay of Detroit in panoramic views, but also up close as the camera wonders through ruined buildings and abandoned neighborhoods where the grass grows like waving wheat and few homes remain. Some views show summer scenes in colors galore that contrast with winter scenes of falling snow on somber gray streets, and a forlorn walker bundled against the cold. Shots of bulky and abandoned commercial and public buildings moldering in the sun add to the sense of loss. I thought I saw shots of the ruined Michigan Central railroad depot where I used to go with my parents and brother to pick up our grandmother on her visits long, long ago.
The misery of Detroit in pictures contrast with a selection of Detroiters we meet in between, and sometimes along with, the visual images. We meet a former teacher who now runs Raven Lounge, the head of U.A.W. local 22, a starving artist and a few more. They all express a gritty determination to stay and make Detroit revive. These are not a Pollyannaish bunch, they have an edge of cynicism and regret, but they are hometown Detroiters and they will stay and keep an eye on the main chance.
Along the way we meet the mayor, former basketball star Dave Bing, whose words and demeanor conveys good will. His city is broke with the loss of the automobile industry and over half its population, but it apparently has nearly 40 square miles of empty land, which he recognizes as a resource. He announces a plan for urban gardening on the empty land. Later when the camera flashes to a residential front porch we find three weary and dubious gents having an eye-rolling laugh at the mayor’s expense. They wonder if people will want to steal their tomatoes in the new agricultural economy of Detroit.
The mayor’s suggestion has the kernel of a bigger idea, which I would urge him to push further: a more self-sufficient regional economy. When Detroit prospered it produced and exported cars to other states and other countries. The earnings from car sales allowed Detroiters to specialize and then import what they needed from production elsewhere around the country and the world.
In a global economy, specializing in capital intensive industries carries risks and makes any region dependent on the whims of others, both in the corporate office and the erratic marketplace. The guys on the porch would be better off wondering how to produce tomatoes and then sell them locally to Detroiters, creating some jobs in the process, but more important re-circulating the money in the local economy to support other jobs.
Everyone eats, which makes food and food processing a good place to begin developing a less dependent and self-supporting local economy. The enormous companies that are necessary in the automobile industry are not necessary in food processing, nor in other industries and services. The country threw away its textile and apparel industries on the propaganda of free traders. Combined textile and apparel had 1.6 million jobs in 1990; 388 thousand are left in 2011, but it was not inevitable as economists like to say.
Creative retailers are finding small scale clothing production can be cost competitive when it is combined with retail operations. Retailers that produce on site in their own space capture the entire marketing margin and make better use of their employees for the seasonal fluctuations common to the cut and sew industry. Local production eliminates shipping charges from the Far East. Freight charges from China to Long Beach are only part of the expense to import clothing. There are Long Beach handling charges, warehouse in and out fees, forklift fees, customs entry fees, and customs duties, but the clothing shipment still sits in Long Beach. Add the shipping fee from Long Beach to wherever. When it is all added up local production does not look so far fetched.
The mayor needs Detroit banks committed to local lending and development and a readily identifiable Detroit label. Then he needs to convince Detroiters to pool their savings in local banks and to buy the Detroit label. It is a tough thing to do, but that is what I liked about Detropia. The contrast of misery and commitment give the impression these things might be possible in Detroit.
Detropia was a little confusing at first, but gradually clears up because the people who spoke in the film did a good job. They did not fumble and stumble but made their points clearly enough to suggest they had thought about and planned what they were going to say rather than impromptu interviews. The film makers flashed a few facts on the screen but avoided excessive narration. Detropia is an ambitious film worth seeing, but more important, worth thinking about.
I recently saw Detropia, a new independent film making the rounds of America’s many film festivals. Detropia is a film of contrasts. As viewers we see the advanced decay of Detroit in panoramic views, but also up close as the camera wonders through ruined buildings and abandoned neighborhoods where the grass grows like waving wheat and few homes remain. Some views show summer scenes in colors galore that contrast with winter scenes of falling snow on somber gray streets, and a forlorn walker bundled against the cold. Shots of bulky and abandoned commercial and public buildings moldering in the sun add to the sense of loss. I thought I saw shots of the ruined Michigan Central railroad depot where I used to go with my parents and brother to pick up our grandmother on her visits long, long ago.
The misery of Detroit in pictures contrast with a selection of Detroiters we meet in between, and sometimes along with, the visual images. We meet a former teacher who now runs Raven Lounge, the head of U.A.W. local 22, a starving artist and a few more. They all express a gritty determination to stay and make Detroit revive. These are not a Pollyannaish bunch, they have an edge of cynicism and regret, but they are hometown Detroiters and they will stay and keep an eye on the main chance.
Along the way we meet the mayor, former basketball star Dave Bing, whose words and demeanor conveys good will. His city is broke with the loss of the automobile industry and over half its population, but it apparently has nearly 40 square miles of empty land, which he recognizes as a resource. He announces a plan for urban gardening on the empty land. Later when the camera flashes to a residential front porch we find three weary and dubious gents having an eye-rolling laugh at the mayor’s expense. They wonder if people will want to steal their tomatoes in the new agricultural economy of Detroit.
The mayor’s suggestion has the kernel of a bigger idea, which I would urge him to push further: a more self-sufficient regional economy. When Detroit prospered it produced and exported cars to other states and other countries. The earnings from car sales allowed Detroiters to specialize and then import what they needed from production elsewhere around the country and the world.
In a global economy, specializing in capital intensive industries carries risks and makes any region dependent on the whims of others, both in the corporate office and the erratic marketplace. The guys on the porch would be better off wondering how to produce tomatoes and then sell them locally to Detroiters, creating some jobs in the process, but more important re-circulating the money in the local economy to support other jobs.
Everyone eats, which makes food and food processing a good place to begin developing a less dependent and self-supporting local economy. The enormous companies that are necessary in the automobile industry are not necessary in food processing, nor in other industries and services. The country threw away its textile and apparel industries on the propaganda of free traders. Combined textile and apparel had 1.6 million jobs in 1990; 388 thousand are left in 2011, but it was not inevitable as economists like to say.
Creative retailers are finding small scale clothing production can be cost competitive when it is combined with retail operations. Retailers that produce on site in their own space capture the entire marketing margin and make better use of their employees for the seasonal fluctuations common to the cut and sew industry. Local production eliminates shipping charges from the Far East. Freight charges from China to Long Beach are only part of the expense to import clothing. There are Long Beach handling charges, warehouse in and out fees, forklift fees, customs entry fees, and customs duties, but the clothing shipment still sits in Long Beach. Add the shipping fee from Long Beach to wherever. When it is all added up local production does not look so far fetched.
The mayor needs Detroit banks committed to local lending and development and a readily identifiable Detroit label. Then he needs to convince Detroiters to pool their savings in local banks and to buy the Detroit label. It is a tough thing to do, but that is what I liked about Detropia. The contrast of misery and commitment give the impression these things might be possible in Detroit.
Detropia was a little confusing at first, but gradually clears up because the people who spoke in the film did a good job. They did not fumble and stumble but made their points clearly enough to suggest they had thought about and planned what they were going to say rather than impromptu interviews. The film makers flashed a few facts on the screen but avoided excessive narration. Detropia is an ambitious film worth seeing, but more important, worth thinking about.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Jobs for PhD's
I continue to see articles describing the grim job market for those pursing and finishing PhDs. A recent article from the Washington Post from July 7, 2012 (“U.S. pushes for more scientists, but the jobs aren’t there”) describes a surplus of science doctorates looking for research positions. The article uses examples of four people: a new neuroscientist yet to find work, two chemists laid off from pharmacy research, and a geneticist who spent 7 years as a low paid post doctoral research apprentice before leaving research entirely. It makes sober reading, especially when the politicians still talk about a future with new jobs in “high tech.” However, the bigger picture of jobs for doctorates in all fields gets worse day by day.
The accelerating growth of new PhDs in all fields is the first source of job problems for new graduates. In the year ending June 2000, 44.8 thousand finished doctorates. The number increased every single year until 70.2 thousand finished degrees in the year ending June 2010. (1) The totals come from the National Center for Education Statistics at the U.S. Department of Education. In the years from June 2000 to June 2010, 599.1 thousand new PhD’s were added to the supply of existing PhD holders.
No one pursing a PhD can afford to ignore the college teaching market which has over 80 percent of the jobs certain to require a PhD. From the years 2000 to 2010 the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports college faculty increased from nearly 1.31 million to 1.46 million, or about 150 thousand new jobs. A job market with potentially 599.1 thousand new PhD’s looking for 150 thousand new jobs guarantees some very difficult job hunting. Retirements in any field can help generate job openings even if job growth is slow, except that tenured college faculty have a well earned reputation for retiring later rather than sooner.
Any American thinking of a PhD should remember that up to a third of science and engineering PhDs in selected years are foreign nationals, especially over the last 20 years. Many foreign nationals started careers in the United States but more and more they return home to start new companies and work in research and teaching in their native universities. Americans with doctorates need to accept that the job market for doctorates looks more and more like a global market.
Optimists and pessimists both know that some fields are better than others. Take chemistry, a field where chemistry faculty in postsecondary education increased from 16 thousand in 2000 to 21.1 thousand in 2010, or 5.1 thousand more faculty jobs. Nearly 2.5 thousand finished chemistry doctorates in 2010 alone with over 20 thousand new chemistry doctorates reported from 2000 to 2010.
As a science field, it helps that chemists have more opportunities outside of teaching than other fields in social sciences and literature. The chemical manufacturing industry, especially the pharmaceutical industry and also the plastics, rubber, paint, and fertilizer industries, hires chemists. Firms specializing in engineering services and firms doing basic research also employ chemists. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports jobs for just over 80 thousand chemists and 27 thousand chemical engineers in 2011.
Some of the jobs for chemists in research and manufacturing need a PhD, but the credential itself is not as important in business and research the way it is for academia. Management decides which jobs can be done without PhD skills, which puts PhD holders in competition with a plentiful supply of chemistry baccalaureate and master degree holders. Worse, jobs for chemists and chemical engineers are both down since 2000. The decline is small but there are thousands of new BA, MA as well as PhD degrees in chemistry, and similarly in other fields.
The surplus of doctorates and their dominant employment as college faculty has generated a dual job market where established faculty with tenure operate separately from new PhD’s. New PhD’s might find post doctoral research in the sciences or adjunct positions with a course by course salary or a temporary appointment, but those positions go for expansion or to replace retiring faculty. Tenured faculty do not lose their jobs or accept lower salaries to hire and pay new faculty. The burden of the surplus falls entirely on new PhDs to accept low salaries for an indefinite period.
Dual markets and the risk of long delays working at low wages make it difficult to forecast a rate of return to funds invested in a Ph.D. Where people leave their chosen field for other work the return drops to zero, but long delays on top of four to seven years in a graduate program suggests minimal returns on a large investment of tuition, time and effort. Those thinking of a PhD should think carefully.
Note (1) The total excludes law, pharmacy, medicine (MD) and veterinary degrees.
The accelerating growth of new PhDs in all fields is the first source of job problems for new graduates. In the year ending June 2000, 44.8 thousand finished doctorates. The number increased every single year until 70.2 thousand finished degrees in the year ending June 2010. (1) The totals come from the National Center for Education Statistics at the U.S. Department of Education. In the years from June 2000 to June 2010, 599.1 thousand new PhD’s were added to the supply of existing PhD holders.
No one pursing a PhD can afford to ignore the college teaching market which has over 80 percent of the jobs certain to require a PhD. From the years 2000 to 2010 the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports college faculty increased from nearly 1.31 million to 1.46 million, or about 150 thousand new jobs. A job market with potentially 599.1 thousand new PhD’s looking for 150 thousand new jobs guarantees some very difficult job hunting. Retirements in any field can help generate job openings even if job growth is slow, except that tenured college faculty have a well earned reputation for retiring later rather than sooner.
Any American thinking of a PhD should remember that up to a third of science and engineering PhDs in selected years are foreign nationals, especially over the last 20 years. Many foreign nationals started careers in the United States but more and more they return home to start new companies and work in research and teaching in their native universities. Americans with doctorates need to accept that the job market for doctorates looks more and more like a global market.
Optimists and pessimists both know that some fields are better than others. Take chemistry, a field where chemistry faculty in postsecondary education increased from 16 thousand in 2000 to 21.1 thousand in 2010, or 5.1 thousand more faculty jobs. Nearly 2.5 thousand finished chemistry doctorates in 2010 alone with over 20 thousand new chemistry doctorates reported from 2000 to 2010.
As a science field, it helps that chemists have more opportunities outside of teaching than other fields in social sciences and literature. The chemical manufacturing industry, especially the pharmaceutical industry and also the plastics, rubber, paint, and fertilizer industries, hires chemists. Firms specializing in engineering services and firms doing basic research also employ chemists. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports jobs for just over 80 thousand chemists and 27 thousand chemical engineers in 2011.
Some of the jobs for chemists in research and manufacturing need a PhD, but the credential itself is not as important in business and research the way it is for academia. Management decides which jobs can be done without PhD skills, which puts PhD holders in competition with a plentiful supply of chemistry baccalaureate and master degree holders. Worse, jobs for chemists and chemical engineers are both down since 2000. The decline is small but there are thousands of new BA, MA as well as PhD degrees in chemistry, and similarly in other fields.
The surplus of doctorates and their dominant employment as college faculty has generated a dual job market where established faculty with tenure operate separately from new PhD’s. New PhD’s might find post doctoral research in the sciences or adjunct positions with a course by course salary or a temporary appointment, but those positions go for expansion or to replace retiring faculty. Tenured faculty do not lose their jobs or accept lower salaries to hire and pay new faculty. The burden of the surplus falls entirely on new PhDs to accept low salaries for an indefinite period.
Dual markets and the risk of long delays working at low wages make it difficult to forecast a rate of return to funds invested in a Ph.D. Where people leave their chosen field for other work the return drops to zero, but long delays on top of four to seven years in a graduate program suggests minimal returns on a large investment of tuition, time and effort. Those thinking of a PhD should think carefully.
Note (1) The total excludes law, pharmacy, medicine (MD) and veterinary degrees.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
The Depressing Effects of Inequality
Millions of Americans cushioned themselves against the 2009-10 recession by doubling up in houses and apartments. That was the conclusion of the U. S. Census Bureau in a report released June 20, 2012. The number of adults sharing a household with family members, or other individuals, jumped from 17 to 18.7 percent of households from 2007 and 2010. Doubling up accounted for 22 million of 2010 households.
If logic services me doubling up guarantees one household could be at least two, or that 22 million households could be at least 44 million households. The report cited young adults as the most likely to be part of a doubled up household so that families with several children could be three or more households. Some undoubtedly share a household by choice, but the lack of job opportunities, low wages and high taxes on wage income depress opportunities to start new households.
Too often the popular media treats inequality as a matter of fairness, but these tiresome equity debates have turned into an indulgence America can no longer afford. America’s growing inequality depresses buying power and eliminates billions of dollars in transactions that would support production, income and jobs.
College graduates returning home to live with parents and find part time and temporary jobs limit billions of dollars that should be going into the spending stream for housing, along with home furnishings, apartment and homeowners insurance, clothing and consumer goods sales, which in turn cut the income of landlords, realtors, department stores, insurance agents, which in turn cuts tax revenues and spending for all levels of government, and so on.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational employment data tells some of the inequality story. In 2009 I can find 199 occupations that employed 57.6 million people working in jobs that paid median wages less than $30,000. By 2011 those same 199 occupations employed 56.7 million people and 40 of the occupations had lower wages in 2011 than 2009; another 126 had some increase in wages but less than the rate of inflation. Cashier was one of the 33 remaining occupations with 2011 wages high enough to raise the buying power of cashiers, but the higher median for 2011 was still only $18,820.
Millions who work and live on wages have to double up on housing and do without health care and other necessities. The Obama administration’s social security tax cut generated a broad based increase in buying power that primarily explains the modest boost to the economy. In spite of the improvements the well-to-do keep defending policies like low tax rates on dividends and capital gains, knowing full well that people living on wages pay higher taxes to make up the lost revenue. I do not hear Democrats or Republicans willing to confront inequality as self defeating policy for all, but that is what it is now. Unless the inequality issue is addressed, the economy and job markets will continue to flounder indefinitely. Take that as a forecast.
If logic services me doubling up guarantees one household could be at least two, or that 22 million households could be at least 44 million households. The report cited young adults as the most likely to be part of a doubled up household so that families with several children could be three or more households. Some undoubtedly share a household by choice, but the lack of job opportunities, low wages and high taxes on wage income depress opportunities to start new households.
Too often the popular media treats inequality as a matter of fairness, but these tiresome equity debates have turned into an indulgence America can no longer afford. America’s growing inequality depresses buying power and eliminates billions of dollars in transactions that would support production, income and jobs.
College graduates returning home to live with parents and find part time and temporary jobs limit billions of dollars that should be going into the spending stream for housing, along with home furnishings, apartment and homeowners insurance, clothing and consumer goods sales, which in turn cut the income of landlords, realtors, department stores, insurance agents, which in turn cuts tax revenues and spending for all levels of government, and so on.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational employment data tells some of the inequality story. In 2009 I can find 199 occupations that employed 57.6 million people working in jobs that paid median wages less than $30,000. By 2011 those same 199 occupations employed 56.7 million people and 40 of the occupations had lower wages in 2011 than 2009; another 126 had some increase in wages but less than the rate of inflation. Cashier was one of the 33 remaining occupations with 2011 wages high enough to raise the buying power of cashiers, but the higher median for 2011 was still only $18,820.
Millions who work and live on wages have to double up on housing and do without health care and other necessities. The Obama administration’s social security tax cut generated a broad based increase in buying power that primarily explains the modest boost to the economy. In spite of the improvements the well-to-do keep defending policies like low tax rates on dividends and capital gains, knowing full well that people living on wages pay higher taxes to make up the lost revenue. I do not hear Democrats or Republicans willing to confront inequality as self defeating policy for all, but that is what it is now. Unless the inequality issue is addressed, the economy and job markets will continue to flounder indefinitely. Take that as a forecast.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
College Degree Round UP
College Degree Round Up
Revised with the newest data July 20, 2017
American colleges and universities continue to turn out graduates, and in ever increasing numbers. In the year ending June 2015, the last year of complete data, the National Center for Education Statistics at the United States Department of Education reported 1,013,971 graduates receiving associates degrees, 1,894,934 receiving Baccalaureate degrees, 758,708 receiving master's degrees, 87,302 receiving doctoral degrees, and 91,245 receiving professional degrees. Professional degrees include medical, pharmacy, veterinary, and law. This year the total of first time professional degrees was down slightly, primarily due to a drop in law degrees.
In 1900 the decennial census counted that year's college graduates; 27,410 received Baccalaureate Degrees from degree granting colleges. After reaching 186,500 in 1940, BA degrees climbed to 432,048 in 1950 when WWII veterans began taking advantage of the GI Bill of Rights and entered college in large numbers. Earned degrees declined some later in the 1950's; but surpassed all earlier numbers by 1964. Earned baccalaureate degrees jumped to 792,316 in June of 1970; 900 thousand in 1973; 1 million in 1989. In June 2000, 1,237,875 earned Baccalaureate degrees from accredited degree granting colleges and universities. The total of 2015 degrees, associate, masters, doctorate, and first-time professional in addition to the 1,894,934 BA degrees mentioned above came to 3,846,130 for the year ending June 2015.
Growth Rates
The numbers receiving United State College degrees continue to grow at a 2.60 percent annual average rate over the last 25 years; more than double the growth rate for the adult population and more than double the growth rate of the civilian labor force. The rate applies to the total of degrees granted from U.S. colleges and universities: associate, baccalaureate, masters, doctorates and first professional degrees. In this way America is getting better educated with a better educated workforce.
Growth rates vary widely by sex and by level of degree. Women have higher growth rates in all degree levels going back to 1990. Women were 41 percent of BA degrees in 1970 but they make up 57.1 percent of the degrees in 2015 leaving 42.9 percent to men. In 2015, women graduates out numbered the men in associates, baccalaureate, masters, doctorate degrees and professional degrees. For the past twenty years the growth rate of women degree candidates in professions, primarily law and medicine, was 4 times that of men. Women will become the majority in the professions.
The master's degree has the highest annual growth rate at 3.30 percent starting from June 1990. The rate for women is 3.74 percent; for men 2.73 percent. Doctorate degrees are second with a growth rate of 3.24 percent a year, but the growth rate is the combination of a 1.95 percent for men and a 4.82 percent women. The 87,302 who received doctoral degrees is the highest ever. Women doctorates were just slightly over a thousand a year in 1960, but women passed men in 2007 and every year since with 47,173 in 2015.
The associate’s degree holds third place with an annual average growth rate of 3.02 percent. Not only is the growth rate higher for women but women had 617,358 degrees compared to only 396,613 for men. Baccalaureate degrees hold fourth place at an annual growth rate 2.22 percent. That means 800,396 more BA degrees in 2015 than 1990. Again growth rates for women are higher than men: 2.45 percent for women, 1.93 percent for men.
The slowest annual growth rates come in first professional degrees with an annual growth rate of only 1.20 percent. Medical Doctor, also known as the MD degree, has the lowest growth rate of professional degrees: .79 percent. Among other medical specialties podiatry and chiropractic medicine have negative growth, and optometry have low growth: 1.22 percent. Osteopathic medicine had 5,355 graduates and a growth rate of 5.34 percent since 1990. None of these other medical degrees are as important to the country as the MD degree where America's medical schools turned out just 18,302 graduates in 2015, 2,364 more than 1985-86. Veterinary medicine has higher growth than the MD degree, 1.31 percent, although lower numbers. Pharmacy degrees have the highest growth rate among first professional degrees. Pharmacy is the third leading first time professional degree with 14,304 thousand graduates in 2015 compared to 1,244 in 1990. Outside of medicine, law degrees continue to grow at a slow pace of .21 percent a year with 40,024 graduates in 2015, down from 43,772 in June 2014, but still 44.4 percent of professional degrees.
Degree Program Details 2015
The National Center for Education Statistics defines individual degree programs within a hierarchy of programs defined as part of its Classification of Instructional Programs, or CIP for short. Individual degrees are grouped as part of related degrees in a broader group of functional levels. For example, civil engineering is an instructional degree program within the broader functional level, engineering. Political science is an instructional degree program within the broader functional level, social science.
Associates degrees, were up slightly to 1,013,971 in 2015. The National Center for Education Statistics first started reporting associates degrees in June of 1966 when they were 111,607 graduates. They have increased with almost every year bigger than the last. Degrees in liberal arts and science, general studies and humanities continue to grow with 367,626 degrees in 2015, which was 36.3 percent of associates degrees and more than any other field of study. Health professions hold second place with 199,991; business degrees have third place with 113,630 degrees. Many with associate’s degrees go on to finish baccalaureate degrees but many associates degree have career oriented degrees that could be terminal degrees for entry level training. Personal and culinary services, criminal justice and corrections, mechanics and repairers are three degrees with 76,495 graduates in 2015 and specific entry skills to begin a career. Computer and information sciences and support services continued a fifth year of increase with 36,401 degrees, 79 percent men. The total remains below the 46.2 thousand degrees of 2003. Many of the technical programs in nursing, health, engineering and architecture provide entry skills, but also a beginning path to baccalaureate or advanced degree training.
Baccalaureate degrees were up to 1,894,934 for the year ending June 2015. The National Center for Education Statistics reports data for Baccalaureate instructional degree programs, also known as fields of study, or majors. Business baccalaureate programs had 366,799 degrees, the highest percentage of total BA degrees: 19.2 percent. Health care and related professions has second place in 2015 with 216,228 degrees and a 5 year average increase with 17,319 degrees, the highest increase of the broad BA degree fields of study. Social science degrees including history, political science, sociology, economics and history dropped in 2015 but still holds third place with 166,944 degrees, or 8.81 percent of BA degrees. Social Science degrees have a 5-year average decrease of 1,167 degrees.
No other field of study with BA degrees has as much as 7 percent of degrees. Psychology has 117,557 degree candidates at 6.20 percent of degrees. Biology and life sciences, and visual and performing arts have over 5 percent, and communications, journalism and related studies have 4.78 percent. Education has 91,623 graduates at 4.84 percent, primarily elementary education. Important degrees in computer and information sciences did increase from 50,962 in 2013 to 59,581 BA degrees in 2015. Computer and information sciences have a 5-year average increase of 3,998. Engineering did better with a 5-year average increase of 5,041 and 97,858 BA degrees in 2015, a 5.16 percent share. Several BA fields of study show a decline since 1990: English language and literature, social sciences and history, and liberal arts and sciences, general studies, and humanities have a negative five year average change.
Masters degrees were up for the second year to 758,708 in 2015. The National Center for Education Statistics reports master’s degree data, which tends to be concentrated in a few fields. Like the Baccalaureate degree the masters degree in business holds first place with 185,222 master’s degrees and 133,896 of the degrees in the single program, the MBA degree. Business has 24.4 percent of master’s degrees. Education master’s degrees hold second place with 146,561 education degrees. All masters degrees in educational specialties are 19.3 percent of master’s degrees for the year ending June 2015. However, education masters degrees have a 5-year average decrease of 7,116.
Education is a degree level where there are more master’s degrees than baccalaureate degrees. Library science, social work, and counseling also have more masters than baccalaureate degrees. Library science had 99 BA degrees; 5,259 masters degrees for 2015. In education for nearly all the public schools teachers that earn masters degree in educational specialties open career opportunities teaching in specialized programs and move to a higher pay scale. The master degree is often directly tied with career opportunity and advancement.
Health professions hold third place with 102,897 masters degrees, 13.6 percent of the total. The largest master’s degree training occurs in nursing with 15,349 MSN degrees compared to 121,810 at the BA degree level. Public health is next with 8,482 degrees and health care administration and management is third place with 8,152 degrees.
There were 46,114 masters degrees reported for engineering masters programs. Computer and information services specialties had 31,474 master’s degrees for 2015, up almost 6 thousand from 2014. It has a five year average increase of 2,704, a modest increase compared to excellent job prospects. Chemistry leads physical science degrees, but with only 2,309 degrees. Mathematics had 7,589 master’s degrees but both math and science are small compared to business, education and health professions masters degrees.
Doctoral degrees were up to 87,302 for the year ending June 2015. Annual growth rates continue to be very high with a five year average increase of 3,415 doctorates. Doctoral candidates are up every year for over a decade. The health professions had 19,782 doctorates or 19.4 percent of doctorates for the year. The total does not include the MD degree, which is a professional degree. Second place goes to education with 11,772 doctorates and 12.1 percent of the total. Engineering had 10,239 PhD’s, or 10.7 percent of doctorates. Biology and biomedical sciences 8,053 degrees, or 9.1 percent; physical sciences 5,823 degrees, or 6.3 percent of doctorates. The biological and physical sciences have a higher share of doctorates than they do for baccalaureate degree programs. Specialties in psychology in 27 programs totaled 6,583 doctorates. In the social sciences, economics, political science, sociology and history have the largest share of the 4,828 social science doctorates. Business has only 3,116 doctorates, mostly the DBA. English language and literature shows a decline since 1970, but small growth after 1990 with 1,056 doctorates in 1990 and 1,418 in 2015.
Percentage Distribution of All Degrees Granted for the Year Ending June 2012
1. Business, management, marketing - - - makes up 20.1% of all degrees
2. Social Sciences, and history, lib-arts, general-studies, multi-disciplinary - - - 10.8%
3. Health Professions - - - 12.4%
4. Education - - - makes up 9.1% of all degrees
5. Physical sciences, Biological and Biomedical sciences - - - 6.4%
6. Psychology - - - 5.5%
7. Engineering - - - 5.6%
8. Visual and performing arts - - - 4.2%
9. English language/literature/letters, Area & ethnic stud, Foreign languages - - - 3.3%
10. Communication, journalism, and related programs - - - 3.7%
11. Public administration and social service professions - - - 3.0%
12. Computer science - - - 3.4%
13. Homeland security, law enforcement, and firefighting - - - 2.7%
14. Parks, recreation, leisure and fitness studies - - - 2.1%
15. Natural resources and Agriculture - - - 1.6%
16. Philosophy and religious studies, Theology and Religious Vocations - - - 1.5%
17. Family and consumer sciences/human sciences - - - 1.0%
18. Mathematics and Statistics - - - 1.1%
19. Engineering technologies/technicians - - - .8%
20. Architecture - - - .6%
21. Law and Legal studies - - - .5%
22. Library science - - - .2%
23. Communications technologies/technicians and support services - - -.2%
24. Transportation and materials moving technologies - - -.2%
Revised with the newest data July 20, 2017
American colleges and universities continue to turn out graduates, and in ever increasing numbers. In the year ending June 2015, the last year of complete data, the National Center for Education Statistics at the United States Department of Education reported 1,013,971 graduates receiving associates degrees, 1,894,934 receiving Baccalaureate degrees, 758,708 receiving master's degrees, 87,302 receiving doctoral degrees, and 91,245 receiving professional degrees. Professional degrees include medical, pharmacy, veterinary, and law. This year the total of first time professional degrees was down slightly, primarily due to a drop in law degrees.
In 1900 the decennial census counted that year's college graduates; 27,410 received Baccalaureate Degrees from degree granting colleges. After reaching 186,500 in 1940, BA degrees climbed to 432,048 in 1950 when WWII veterans began taking advantage of the GI Bill of Rights and entered college in large numbers. Earned degrees declined some later in the 1950's; but surpassed all earlier numbers by 1964. Earned baccalaureate degrees jumped to 792,316 in June of 1970; 900 thousand in 1973; 1 million in 1989. In June 2000, 1,237,875 earned Baccalaureate degrees from accredited degree granting colleges and universities. The total of 2015 degrees, associate, masters, doctorate, and first-time professional in addition to the 1,894,934 BA degrees mentioned above came to 3,846,130 for the year ending June 2015.
Growth Rates
The numbers receiving United State College degrees continue to grow at a 2.60 percent annual average rate over the last 25 years; more than double the growth rate for the adult population and more than double the growth rate of the civilian labor force. The rate applies to the total of degrees granted from U.S. colleges and universities: associate, baccalaureate, masters, doctorates and first professional degrees. In this way America is getting better educated with a better educated workforce.
Growth rates vary widely by sex and by level of degree. Women have higher growth rates in all degree levels going back to 1990. Women were 41 percent of BA degrees in 1970 but they make up 57.1 percent of the degrees in 2015 leaving 42.9 percent to men. In 2015, women graduates out numbered the men in associates, baccalaureate, masters, doctorate degrees and professional degrees. For the past twenty years the growth rate of women degree candidates in professions, primarily law and medicine, was 4 times that of men. Women will become the majority in the professions.
The master's degree has the highest annual growth rate at 3.30 percent starting from June 1990. The rate for women is 3.74 percent; for men 2.73 percent. Doctorate degrees are second with a growth rate of 3.24 percent a year, but the growth rate is the combination of a 1.95 percent for men and a 4.82 percent women. The 87,302 who received doctoral degrees is the highest ever. Women doctorates were just slightly over a thousand a year in 1960, but women passed men in 2007 and every year since with 47,173 in 2015.
The associate’s degree holds third place with an annual average growth rate of 3.02 percent. Not only is the growth rate higher for women but women had 617,358 degrees compared to only 396,613 for men. Baccalaureate degrees hold fourth place at an annual growth rate 2.22 percent. That means 800,396 more BA degrees in 2015 than 1990. Again growth rates for women are higher than men: 2.45 percent for women, 1.93 percent for men.
The slowest annual growth rates come in first professional degrees with an annual growth rate of only 1.20 percent. Medical Doctor, also known as the MD degree, has the lowest growth rate of professional degrees: .79 percent. Among other medical specialties podiatry and chiropractic medicine have negative growth, and optometry have low growth: 1.22 percent. Osteopathic medicine had 5,355 graduates and a growth rate of 5.34 percent since 1990. None of these other medical degrees are as important to the country as the MD degree where America's medical schools turned out just 18,302 graduates in 2015, 2,364 more than 1985-86. Veterinary medicine has higher growth than the MD degree, 1.31 percent, although lower numbers. Pharmacy degrees have the highest growth rate among first professional degrees. Pharmacy is the third leading first time professional degree with 14,304 thousand graduates in 2015 compared to 1,244 in 1990. Outside of medicine, law degrees continue to grow at a slow pace of .21 percent a year with 40,024 graduates in 2015, down from 43,772 in June 2014, but still 44.4 percent of professional degrees.
Degree Program Details 2015
The National Center for Education Statistics defines individual degree programs within a hierarchy of programs defined as part of its Classification of Instructional Programs, or CIP for short. Individual degrees are grouped as part of related degrees in a broader group of functional levels. For example, civil engineering is an instructional degree program within the broader functional level, engineering. Political science is an instructional degree program within the broader functional level, social science.
Associates degrees, were up slightly to 1,013,971 in 2015. The National Center for Education Statistics first started reporting associates degrees in June of 1966 when they were 111,607 graduates. They have increased with almost every year bigger than the last. Degrees in liberal arts and science, general studies and humanities continue to grow with 367,626 degrees in 2015, which was 36.3 percent of associates degrees and more than any other field of study. Health professions hold second place with 199,991; business degrees have third place with 113,630 degrees. Many with associate’s degrees go on to finish baccalaureate degrees but many associates degree have career oriented degrees that could be terminal degrees for entry level training. Personal and culinary services, criminal justice and corrections, mechanics and repairers are three degrees with 76,495 graduates in 2015 and specific entry skills to begin a career. Computer and information sciences and support services continued a fifth year of increase with 36,401 degrees, 79 percent men. The total remains below the 46.2 thousand degrees of 2003. Many of the technical programs in nursing, health, engineering and architecture provide entry skills, but also a beginning path to baccalaureate or advanced degree training.
Baccalaureate degrees were up to 1,894,934 for the year ending June 2015. The National Center for Education Statistics reports data for Baccalaureate instructional degree programs, also known as fields of study, or majors. Business baccalaureate programs had 366,799 degrees, the highest percentage of total BA degrees: 19.2 percent. Health care and related professions has second place in 2015 with 216,228 degrees and a 5 year average increase with 17,319 degrees, the highest increase of the broad BA degree fields of study. Social science degrees including history, political science, sociology, economics and history dropped in 2015 but still holds third place with 166,944 degrees, or 8.81 percent of BA degrees. Social Science degrees have a 5-year average decrease of 1,167 degrees.
No other field of study with BA degrees has as much as 7 percent of degrees. Psychology has 117,557 degree candidates at 6.20 percent of degrees. Biology and life sciences, and visual and performing arts have over 5 percent, and communications, journalism and related studies have 4.78 percent. Education has 91,623 graduates at 4.84 percent, primarily elementary education. Important degrees in computer and information sciences did increase from 50,962 in 2013 to 59,581 BA degrees in 2015. Computer and information sciences have a 5-year average increase of 3,998. Engineering did better with a 5-year average increase of 5,041 and 97,858 BA degrees in 2015, a 5.16 percent share. Several BA fields of study show a decline since 1990: English language and literature, social sciences and history, and liberal arts and sciences, general studies, and humanities have a negative five year average change.
Masters degrees were up for the second year to 758,708 in 2015. The National Center for Education Statistics reports master’s degree data, which tends to be concentrated in a few fields. Like the Baccalaureate degree the masters degree in business holds first place with 185,222 master’s degrees and 133,896 of the degrees in the single program, the MBA degree. Business has 24.4 percent of master’s degrees. Education master’s degrees hold second place with 146,561 education degrees. All masters degrees in educational specialties are 19.3 percent of master’s degrees for the year ending June 2015. However, education masters degrees have a 5-year average decrease of 7,116.
Education is a degree level where there are more master’s degrees than baccalaureate degrees. Library science, social work, and counseling also have more masters than baccalaureate degrees. Library science had 99 BA degrees; 5,259 masters degrees for 2015. In education for nearly all the public schools teachers that earn masters degree in educational specialties open career opportunities teaching in specialized programs and move to a higher pay scale. The master degree is often directly tied with career opportunity and advancement.
Health professions hold third place with 102,897 masters degrees, 13.6 percent of the total. The largest master’s degree training occurs in nursing with 15,349 MSN degrees compared to 121,810 at the BA degree level. Public health is next with 8,482 degrees and health care administration and management is third place with 8,152 degrees.
There were 46,114 masters degrees reported for engineering masters programs. Computer and information services specialties had 31,474 master’s degrees for 2015, up almost 6 thousand from 2014. It has a five year average increase of 2,704, a modest increase compared to excellent job prospects. Chemistry leads physical science degrees, but with only 2,309 degrees. Mathematics had 7,589 master’s degrees but both math and science are small compared to business, education and health professions masters degrees.
Doctoral degrees were up to 87,302 for the year ending June 2015. Annual growth rates continue to be very high with a five year average increase of 3,415 doctorates. Doctoral candidates are up every year for over a decade. The health professions had 19,782 doctorates or 19.4 percent of doctorates for the year. The total does not include the MD degree, which is a professional degree. Second place goes to education with 11,772 doctorates and 12.1 percent of the total. Engineering had 10,239 PhD’s, or 10.7 percent of doctorates. Biology and biomedical sciences 8,053 degrees, or 9.1 percent; physical sciences 5,823 degrees, or 6.3 percent of doctorates. The biological and physical sciences have a higher share of doctorates than they do for baccalaureate degree programs. Specialties in psychology in 27 programs totaled 6,583 doctorates. In the social sciences, economics, political science, sociology and history have the largest share of the 4,828 social science doctorates. Business has only 3,116 doctorates, mostly the DBA. English language and literature shows a decline since 1970, but small growth after 1990 with 1,056 doctorates in 1990 and 1,418 in 2015.
Percentage Distribution of All Degrees Granted for the Year Ending June 2012
1. Business, management, marketing - - - makes up 20.1% of all degrees
2. Social Sciences, and history, lib-arts, general-studies, multi-disciplinary - - - 10.8%
3. Health Professions - - - 12.4%
4. Education - - - makes up 9.1% of all degrees
5. Physical sciences, Biological and Biomedical sciences - - - 6.4%
6. Psychology - - - 5.5%
7. Engineering - - - 5.6%
8. Visual and performing arts - - - 4.2%
9. English language/literature/letters, Area & ethnic stud, Foreign languages - - - 3.3%
10. Communication, journalism, and related programs - - - 3.7%
11. Public administration and social service professions - - - 3.0%
12. Computer science - - - 3.4%
13. Homeland security, law enforcement, and firefighting - - - 2.7%
14. Parks, recreation, leisure and fitness studies - - - 2.1%
15. Natural resources and Agriculture - - - 1.6%
16. Philosophy and religious studies, Theology and Religious Vocations - - - 1.5%
17. Family and consumer sciences/human sciences - - - 1.0%
18. Mathematics and Statistics - - - 1.1%
19. Engineering technologies/technicians - - - .8%
20. Architecture - - - .6%
21. Law and Legal studies - - - .5%
22. Library science - - - .2%
23. Communications technologies/technicians and support services - - -.2%
24. Transportation and materials moving technologies - - -.2%
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