Saturday, January 3, 2015
Michigan Jobs 2014-2015
Michigan reached a monthly average high of 4.68 million establishment jobs way back in 2000, followed by a long slide to a low of 3.86 million jobs in 2010, a decline of 813 thousand jobs over the decade. Job growth returned in 2011 until average monthly employment reached 4.11 million in 2013, an increase of 241 thousand jobs over the three year period. Jobs are up for the first 9 months of 2014, but at a slower pace of increase with only 12.9 thousand new jobs for the new year.
Michigan Governor Rick Snyder took office January 1, 2011 and after the 2014 election will continue until the end of 2018. His first three years in office included a significant improvement on jobs where 241 thousand new jobs equals an annual growth rate of 2.04 percent, higher than the national job growth rate and higher than the growth rate of forty-five of the fifty states and the District of Columbia. His re-election to a new term gives a good chance to make a mid-term assessment on jobs.
Manufacturing
Michigan lost 422.6 thousand manufacturing jobs from 2000 through 2010 about 52 percent of the statewide decline in jobs. From 2010 to 2013 manufacturing employment increased from 474 thousand to 555 thousand, an increase of 81 thousand, or a third of the statewide increase in establishment jobs. The Michigan increase in manufacturing jobs was higher than any other state, even the five states that have higher non-farm employment than Michigan. As of 2013 manufacturing has 13.5 percent of statewide establishment employment compared to the national average of 8.8 percent.
Share Reversals – From Decrease to Increase
Manufacturing was part of the job reversals from 2010 to 2013. However, all three of the goods production industries, natural resource, construction and manufacturing, reversed from decreasing between 2000 and 2010 to increasing from 2010 to 2013. Goods production declined by 8.24 percent of statewide jobs over the decade ending 2010, but increased by 1.33 percent in the three years ending 2013.
Professional and business services are another group of industries that reversed direction in 2010 from a declining share to an increasing share of Michigan jobs. The professional and technical services component of these services have jobs in law, accounting, architecture, engineering, computer design, management consulting, scientific research, advertising, and veterinary services. Professional jobs were up from 222.8 thousand in 2010 to 260.7 thousand in 2013, an increase of 37.3 thousand jobs. The new jobs were up enough to raise their share of Michigan jobs by .57 percent to 6.3 percent by 2013, reversing a small decline from 2000 to 2010.
The administrative and support services component of professional and business services includes office and facilities support services, employment services, travel agencies, security services, and services to buildings and grounds. Administrative and support jobs were up from 242 thousand in 2010 to 284 thousand in 2013, an increase of 42 thousand jobs. The increase was enough over the three years to raise their share of Michigan jobs by .65 percent to 6.9 percent.
Percentage Share Reversals – From Increase to Decrease
When some industries have higher percent others must have a lower percentage, which guarantees other industries lost jobs or did not have enough new jobs to maintain their share of Michigan jobs. Job growth in health care, government and education faltered after 2010 even though these industries helped sustain Michigan employment with more jobs from 2000 to 2010.
Health care employment was up from 9.6 percent in 2000 to 13.8 percent of statewide employment in 2010, an increase of 4.2 percent, but health care lost a .11 percent of Michigan jobs by 2013. Government service including education dropped 1.85 percent of statewide employment from 2010 to 2013. The decrease includes a .96 percent drop in jobs for the public schools and universities.
Private school education also declined from 1.9 percent of statewide employment to 1.8 percent from 2010 to 2013. Combined public and private education was up by 1.7 percent to 10.5 percent of statewide employment in 2010, but after 2010 jobs dropped from 406 thousand to 384 thousand with a loss of 1.1 percent of statewide employment.
The New Direction
The new direction shows up primarily with an expansion of goods production, especially manufacturing, and professional and business services in exchange for less government services, health care, and education. Combined goods production and business and professional services increased from 27.6 percent of statewide employment to 30.2 percent in just three years. The combination of government services, education, and health care decreased from 32.3 percent of statewide Michigan employment to 30.1 percent from 2010 to 2013.
Jobs usually figure in elections. If that is true in the 2014 Michigan election then 2010 to 2013 job growth undoubtedly translated into positive votes for Governor Snyder. Job growth justifies his claim that Michigan’s job outlook improved during his first term.
If new jobs are a goal for newly elected politicians the safest strategy is to work for new jobs in all sectors of the economy. The Michigan mix of new jobs has a political component because the governor has taken steps to increase jobs in the private sector as he pressed for a reduction in government services, which have decreased jobs in government and education.
Lagging Service Sectors and Productivity
The expanded use of computers and digital technologies raises productivity and slows the growth of jobs across service industry sectors that make up a large share of Michigan jobs. For example, wholesale and retail trade made up almost 16 percent of jobs in 2000, but barely 15 percent now.
Productivity has also slowed the growth of other service industries like newspapers, broadcasting, phone services, and in financial services like banking, lending, insurance and real estate as America slowly shift to a paperless economy. Combined these sectors continue to have 21.3 percent of statewide employment but their slow growth, and sometimes decline, makes them an unlikely source for significant increase in the future.
Other small sectors like repair and maintenance services, transportation, utilities, arts-entertainment-recreation including gambling, accommodations including casino hotels, personal services and non-profit associations have small shares with a combined 9.4 percent of statewide employment in 2013, down about .15 percent from 2010. Gambling employment dropped a few hundred jobs to 7 thousand statewide jobs.
Government and education including private schools have 16.4 percent of statewide employment as of 2013, off 39 thousand jobs in the last three years. These remain an unlikely source of new jobs in the current political climate.
Restaurants reached their highest statewide employment in 2006 with 352.3 thousand jobs, but with moderate ups and downs it is 350 thousand in 2013 with 7.5 percent of statewide employment. The job changes over the last decade do not suggest restaurants will be a major source of future jobs, but it has been adding about 7 thousand jobs a year recently and may continue.
Health Care and Professional and Business Services
The combined total of the above service sector jobs comes to 54.6 percent, which leaves 45.3 percent of the remaining sectors as the most likely source of new Michigan jobs. Remaining sectors include health care with 13.7 percent of Michigan establishment jobs, professional and business services with 14.7 percent and goods production with 16.9 percent.
Michigan needs 80 to 90 thousand new jobs a year to sustain the growth of the last three years. Major sectors like trade and information services continue to lose percentage share and now education and government services are down for political reasons, which makes it essential to have replacement jobs from other sectors. To keep the job mill going health care, professional and business services, and goods production needs to grow a little faster than the statewide average to increase their share of jobs.
Michigan health care employment increased between 8 and 9 thousand jobs a year from 2000 to 2013, but the rate of increase has fallen below the statewide growth rate for the last three years. The pace of new jobs needs to increase so that Michigan adds 12 to 13 thousand health care jobs a year, which will help make up for other slow growth sectors. Michigan health care employment has 13.7 percent of statewide employment compared to 13 percent in the national economy, but it will be difficult for Michigan to meet its job needs unless it continues at 13.7 percent or ticks up toward 14 percent.
Professional and business services employment, which recall has the combination of professional and technical services, managerial establishments, and business support services, reached a statewide high in 2000 with 641 thousand jobs. It declined to a low of 501 thousand by 2009. Jobs started to increase the year before Governor Snyder was elected but has continued to increase to the present. The monthly average in 2013 was 602 thousand jobs.
Michigan professional and business services jobs were up between 32 and 35 thousand a years in the four year period. Except for legal services growth rates in these industries exceeded the statewide growth rate, often at double and sometimes at triple the statewide rate. Michigan already has 14.7 percent of its statewide employment in these industries when the national average is 13.6 percent, making it unrealistic to expect the pace to continue, but Michigan needs 20 to 25 thousand of these new jobs to keep pace for continued growth around 2 percent a year.
Goods Production
Goods production also reached a high in 2000 with 1.12 million jobs, but declined to a low of 597.6 thousand in 2009. Jobs started to recover before Governor Snyder took office, but 93 of the 98 thousand new goods production jobs came after he was in office.
Natural resources and mining was up a thousand jobs and construction was up 4 thousand jobs over the three years. While up is better than down both sectors have small shares of Michigan jobs. In the national economy natural resources employment is .64 percent, but in the Michigan economy it is only .2 percent. Natural resources has not added more than a thousand jobs a year in natural resources going back to 1990.
Construction jobs increased by 11 thousand to 132 thousand in the three years since 2010. Michigan has construction employment equal to 3.2 percent of statewide employment compared to the national economy where it is 4.3 percent. Construction needs just 3 thousand new jobs a year to keep pace with the current statewide growth rate. A good economy should be able to increase it to 5 or 6 thousand a year.
Motor Vehicles
That leaves manufacturing, the most uncertain variable in Michigan jobs. The Michigan increase in manufacturing jobs came primarily in motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts manufacturing with 36 thousand of the 81 thousand manufacturing increase. Another 29 thousand of the manufacturing jobs were in auto related primary metals, fabricated metals, and machinery manufacturing. Combined these auto related industries make up 80 percent of the Michigan manufacturing increase.
In spite of the national decline in manufacturing after 2000 and the national decline of more than a 100 thousand jobs in automobile manufacturing in the same period, Michigan still has more motor vehicle manufacturing jobs than any other state. In 2012, it had 39.1 thousand jobs making complete vehicles or the chassis and frame, which was 23.4 percent of national employment in this industry; in 2013 it was up to 42.4 thousand jobs, which was up to 23.8 percent of complete vehicle, chassis and frame manufacturing. Second place Ohio had barely 20 thousand of these jobs.
Michigan ranks sixth in motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing with 6 thousand jobs, but this is the smallest segment of the industry.
Michgian is first in the biggest segment of the industry: motor vehicle parts manufacturing. Employment here was 109.7 thousand jobs in 2013, which was 21.6 percent of the national employment. Ohio was second again with 63.6 thousand jobs.
From 2012 to 2013 jobs in the three component motor vehicle industries added 42.8 thousand jobs in nationwide employment. Michigan had 10.9 thousand of the new jobs, or just over 25 percent of them. It was more than any other state. Since five states had a decrease in motor vehicle manufacturing employment, and 13 states had a decrease in auto parts manufacturing employment, Michigan is clearly making gains in competition with other states in motor vehicle manufacturing.
The benefits of job gains depend partly on wages. The Bureau of Labor Statistics now publishes wage distributions by state, by industry and by occupation. Production occupations make up 60 to 66 percent of jobs in motor vehicle manufacturing including assembly and parts manufacturing. The Michigan median wage for production workers in motor vehicle manufacturing was $22.92 in 2012 and was up to $23.69 in 2013. Wages were up as employment was up from 21,540 in 2012 to 31,450 in 2013.
For Michigan production workers in motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing in 2012 the median wage was $17.64 but was down to $15.27 in 2013. Employment here is low with only 2,640 jobs in 2012 and 2,680 in 2013.
For Michigan production workers in motor vehicle parts manufacturing in 2012 the median wage was $19.67 but was down to $17.09 in 2013. Wages were down as employment was up from 56,910 in 2012 to 61,290 in 2013. However, the wage bill (wage x employment) dropped for production workers who had less wage income to put into the Michigan economy.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data allows comparison between Michigan and other states. Production occupations for motor vehicle manufacturing in 2013 exceed 1,000 jobs in 10 states, but seven of those states report median wages higher than Michigan and two states with median wages below Michigan.
Production occupations for motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing exceed 1,000 jobs in 26 states, but nine states report median wages higher than Michigan and sixteen states have median wages below Michigan.
Production occupations for motor vehicle parts manufacturing exceed 1,000 jobs in 28 states, but three states report median wages higher than Michigan and 24 states have median wages below Michigan.
A Cautious Future
Michigan needs at least 80 thousand new jobs a year to meet statewide employment needs. The job shifts over the last three to four years make Michigan more dependent on selling exports to other states or countries and therefore more vulnerable to job losses in an economic downturn. Through the first 9 months of 2014 manufacturing is up 8.9 thousand jobs out of a statewide increase of 12.9 thousand. Motor vehicle and motor vehicle related manufacturing in fabricated metals and machinery manufacturing were up 9.1 thousand in the same period, which means other manufacturing industries have a net decline in jobs.
The narrow advance of jobs in the three industries motor vehicle manufacturing, professional services expect legal services, and employment services makes a future forecast hard to make. In the first 9 months of 2014 retail trade, financial services, education, health care, accommodations, repair and maintenance services, personal services, non-profit associations, and federal, state and local government all had small job losses. Michigan has a better outlook on jobs than it did in 2009 and 2010, but it needs a broader advance across more industries to be optimistic it will continue.
Monday, December 29, 2014
Jobs for Pharmacy
Standard Occupational Classification #29-1051 Pharmacist
Standard Occupational Classification #29-2052 Pharmacy Technician
Standard Occupational Classification #31-9095 Pharmacy Aide
SOC Definition #29-1051-Pharmacist---Dispense drugs prescribed by physicians and other health practitioners and provide information to patients about medications and their use. May advise physicians and other health practitioners on the selection, dosage, interactions, and side effects of medications. Examples of other names in common use are apothecary; druggist; industrial pharmacist
SOC Definition #29-2052-Pharmacy Technicians---Prepare medications under the direction of a pharmacist. May measure, mix, count out, label, and record amounts and dosages of medications.
SOC Definition #31-9095-Pharmacy Aides---Record drugs delivered to the pharmacy, store incoming merchandise, and inform the supervisor of stock needs. May operate cash register and accept prescriptions for filling. Examples of other names in common use are dispensary attendant; prescription clerk
Both pharmacists and pharmacy technicians are classified as health care occupations. Pharmacy aides are in health care support occupations. Pharmacists have two-thirds of their employment in retail trade, mostly at pharmacies and drug stores, but some also work in grocery stores and department stores. Another 25 percent work at hospitals and a few more at clinics and nursing homes. A small percent are scattered in industries unrelated to health care like education and employment services.
Pharmacy technicians and pharmacy aides can only work with pharmacists, but they are more closely connected to retail trade than pharmacists. Over 70 percent of pharmacy technicians and at least 85 percent of pharmacy aides work in retail with almost all the rest at hospitals. The difference suggests retail trade make more intensive use of their pharmacists while hospital pharmacists do more of their own support work.
National employment as pharmacists was 287,420 in 2013. Jobs are up from 212,660 since 2000 in a steady increase. Annual average job growth equals 5,751 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of 2.34 percent, higher than the average for all employment. National employment as pharmacy technicians was 362,690 in 2013. Jobs are up since 2000 when jobs were 190,940. The annual average job increase equals 13,212 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of 5.06 percent, more than double the national growth rate for jobs. National employment as pharmacy aides was 42,250 in 2013. Jobs are down since 2000 when jobs were 59,890. The annual average job decline equals 1,357 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of –2.65 percent.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting job growth for pharmacists at almost the same rate as the last 13 years at 12,330 per year through 2022. Because of anticipated turnover and retirements, openings, or growth plus replacement needs, are expected to be 29,640 a year. Forecast job growth for pharmacy technicians is 7,070 a year through 2022. Anticipated turnover and retirements are expected to create 10,590 openings a year. Forecast job growth for pharmacy aides is much smaller at 480 a year through 2022. Because of anticipated turnover and retirements, openings, or growth plus replacement needs, are expected to be 1,290 a year.
Pharmacists need a doctor of pharmacy degree from a program accredited by the Accreditation Council for Pharmacy education. There are 120 accredited programs and two programs on probation listed by the Accreditation Council. It was not always this way. Earlier pharmacy programs had specialty training at the BA degree level, but these programs have been phased out. Some of those working as pharmacists were trained under the old requirements, but new pharmacists must have the Pharm. D degree. Applicants should now expect seven years of study to finish the degree.
All pharmacists are required to pass state licensing exams before they can work as pharmacists. On-the-job training is not important in that pharmacists are expected to know the work before they can apply for a job or be a pharmacist. Work experience in a related occupation might help in some ways but is not necessary for entry.
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High school degree skills are adequate for pharmacy technicians and aides, although Bureau of Labor Statistics survey data indicate over half working as pharmacy technicians have some college or a college degree. Experience in a related occupation is not necessary, but qualified candidates need some short term on-the-job training working in a pharmacy to be considered fully qualified.
The National Center for Education Statistics reports degree data for America’s colleges and universities that can be compared with job growth and openings. There were 12,943 doctor of pharmacy degrees granted in June 2012, the last year of complete degree data. They were granted as 36 percent to men and 64 percent to women.
Degrees are up in 2012 from previous years at annual growth rates around five percent, much faster than the MD degree or dentistry. The ratio of relevant BA degree to openings equals .44, or 12,943/29,640, suggesting a likely shortage of qualified candidates to fill job openings.
The basic wage data from the BLS occupational employment survey includes a wage distribution. Averages are seldom used in wage data. A few high wages pull up the average and make it unrepresentative. Instead a distribution range of wages is published with the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentiles of wages. A 10th percentile wage means 10 percent working in this job have wages equal to or less than the 10th percentile wage and so on. Annual wages are converted to hourly wages by dividing annual wages by 2080
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacists is reported as $89,000 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $104,100. The median wage is $119,280, the 75th percentile wage equals $136,360 and the 90th percentile wage is $147,350.
The wages of Pharmacists have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $94,250 in 2013, the Pharmacist wage would need to be $109,221.70. In stead it was $119,280, a 9.21 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show an increase in real wages.
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacy Technicians is reported as $20,040 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $24,440. The median wage is $29,650, the 75th percentile wage equals $36,270 and the 90th percentile wage is $43,230.
The wages of Pharmacy Technicians have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $25 630, in 2013, the pharmacy technician wage would need to be $29,616.50. Instead it was $29,650, a .11 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show increasing real wages.
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacy Aides is reported as $17,160 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $19,070. The median wage is $22,580, the 75th percentile wage equals $28,050 and the 90th percentile wage is $35,680.
The wages of Pharmacy Aides have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $19,440, in 2013, the Pharmacy Aides wage would need to be $22,463.70. Instead it was $22,580, a .52 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show increasing real wages.
Standard Occupational Classification #29-2052 Pharmacy Technician
Standard Occupational Classification #31-9095 Pharmacy Aide
SOC Definition #29-1051-Pharmacist---Dispense drugs prescribed by physicians and other health practitioners and provide information to patients about medications and their use. May advise physicians and other health practitioners on the selection, dosage, interactions, and side effects of medications. Examples of other names in common use are apothecary; druggist; industrial pharmacist
SOC Definition #29-2052-Pharmacy Technicians---Prepare medications under the direction of a pharmacist. May measure, mix, count out, label, and record amounts and dosages of medications.
SOC Definition #31-9095-Pharmacy Aides---Record drugs delivered to the pharmacy, store incoming merchandise, and inform the supervisor of stock needs. May operate cash register and accept prescriptions for filling. Examples of other names in common use are dispensary attendant; prescription clerk
Both pharmacists and pharmacy technicians are classified as health care occupations. Pharmacy aides are in health care support occupations. Pharmacists have two-thirds of their employment in retail trade, mostly at pharmacies and drug stores, but some also work in grocery stores and department stores. Another 25 percent work at hospitals and a few more at clinics and nursing homes. A small percent are scattered in industries unrelated to health care like education and employment services.
Pharmacy technicians and pharmacy aides can only work with pharmacists, but they are more closely connected to retail trade than pharmacists. Over 70 percent of pharmacy technicians and at least 85 percent of pharmacy aides work in retail with almost all the rest at hospitals. The difference suggests retail trade make more intensive use of their pharmacists while hospital pharmacists do more of their own support work.
National employment as pharmacists was 287,420 in 2013. Jobs are up from 212,660 since 2000 in a steady increase. Annual average job growth equals 5,751 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of 2.34 percent, higher than the average for all employment. National employment as pharmacy technicians was 362,690 in 2013. Jobs are up since 2000 when jobs were 190,940. The annual average job increase equals 13,212 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of 5.06 percent, more than double the national growth rate for jobs. National employment as pharmacy aides was 42,250 in 2013. Jobs are down since 2000 when jobs were 59,890. The annual average job decline equals 1,357 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of –2.65 percent.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting job growth for pharmacists at almost the same rate as the last 13 years at 12,330 per year through 2022. Because of anticipated turnover and retirements, openings, or growth plus replacement needs, are expected to be 29,640 a year. Forecast job growth for pharmacy technicians is 7,070 a year through 2022. Anticipated turnover and retirements are expected to create 10,590 openings a year. Forecast job growth for pharmacy aides is much smaller at 480 a year through 2022. Because of anticipated turnover and retirements, openings, or growth plus replacement needs, are expected to be 1,290 a year.
Pharmacists need a doctor of pharmacy degree from a program accredited by the Accreditation Council for Pharmacy education. There are 120 accredited programs and two programs on probation listed by the Accreditation Council. It was not always this way. Earlier pharmacy programs had specialty training at the BA degree level, but these programs have been phased out. Some of those working as pharmacists were trained under the old requirements, but new pharmacists must have the Pharm. D degree. Applicants should now expect seven years of study to finish the degree.
All pharmacists are required to pass state licensing exams before they can work as pharmacists. On-the-job training is not important in that pharmacists are expected to know the work before they can apply for a job or be a pharmacist. Work experience in a related occupation might help in some ways but is not necessary for entry.
.
High school degree skills are adequate for pharmacy technicians and aides, although Bureau of Labor Statistics survey data indicate over half working as pharmacy technicians have some college or a college degree. Experience in a related occupation is not necessary, but qualified candidates need some short term on-the-job training working in a pharmacy to be considered fully qualified.
The National Center for Education Statistics reports degree data for America’s colleges and universities that can be compared with job growth and openings. There were 12,943 doctor of pharmacy degrees granted in June 2012, the last year of complete degree data. They were granted as 36 percent to men and 64 percent to women.
Degrees are up in 2012 from previous years at annual growth rates around five percent, much faster than the MD degree or dentistry. The ratio of relevant BA degree to openings equals .44, or 12,943/29,640, suggesting a likely shortage of qualified candidates to fill job openings.
The basic wage data from the BLS occupational employment survey includes a wage distribution. Averages are seldom used in wage data. A few high wages pull up the average and make it unrepresentative. Instead a distribution range of wages is published with the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentiles of wages. A 10th percentile wage means 10 percent working in this job have wages equal to or less than the 10th percentile wage and so on. Annual wages are converted to hourly wages by dividing annual wages by 2080
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacists is reported as $89,000 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $104,100. The median wage is $119,280, the 75th percentile wage equals $136,360 and the 90th percentile wage is $147,350.
The wages of Pharmacists have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $94,250 in 2013, the Pharmacist wage would need to be $109,221.70. In stead it was $119,280, a 9.21 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show an increase in real wages.
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacy Technicians is reported as $20,040 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $24,440. The median wage is $29,650, the 75th percentile wage equals $36,270 and the 90th percentile wage is $43,230.
The wages of Pharmacy Technicians have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $25 630, in 2013, the pharmacy technician wage would need to be $29,616.50. Instead it was $29,650, a .11 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show increasing real wages.
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacy Aides is reported as $17,160 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $19,070. The median wage is $22,580, the 75th percentile wage equals $28,050 and the 90th percentile wage is $35,680.
The wages of Pharmacy Aides have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $19,440, in 2013, the Pharmacy Aides wage would need to be $22,463.70. Instead it was $22,580, a .52 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show increasing real wages.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
Be a Millionaire
I was speaking with a financial advisor but not at his office. It was at a party where there was lots of informal chit-chat over a nip of the grape. One thing he said to me and some others standing close by was meant as humor, a joke. It was “People sometimes ask me, How did you accumulate your first million? I tell them my simple strategy. Don’t buy anything.”
It got a laugh and it was funny the way he told it, his voice and exaggeration. Then he went on to tell about a personal choice he made back in the 1980’s after finishing college. The car he had was a used Chevrolet with no cachet, but it ran well and was reliable. The fancier car he wanted to buy at the time he said was $9,100. Of course he didn’t have the money, but he recalled the deal he got to buy it was $2,000 down and a three year loan at 7 percent for the rest. He didn’t buy the car but decided to take advantage of pension rules that allow savings to go untaxed in the stock market for decades. He claimed his “not buy a car” investment was worth around $100,000 dollars now.
Not buying a car put him 10 percent of the way to retiring a millionaire, but there are other goods and services that are relatively easy to do without or to substitute something much cheaper. Regular or monthly service charges for cable TV, storage lockers, gym memberships, newspaper, magazine and Internet subscriptions, cleaning services, yard services, and life insurance come to mind quickly.
Decisions not to buy deluxe cars, electronics and appliances over the budget models, or replace them early for the newer models can generate thousands of dollars at retirement. Even essential services like phone, heating and air conditioning allow more saving opportunities to become a millionaire.
How much buying to avoid and things to cut back to reach a million dollars depends on time and interest rates as it does in all financial accumulations. Assuming work starts between the ages of 18 and 22 and continues to the Social Security retirement age makes it reasonable to use forty years of work life to save for retirement. The many stock index funds give a comparable measure of expected returns for a retirement account. The Standard and Poors 500 index earned a 7.2 percent return for the decade ending 2014 assuming dividends were reinvested. For the past twenty-five years the Standard and Poors Index had a 9.4 percent return.
Using an 8 percent return rate and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet functions computes to $284.56 a month of consumer goods and services not purchased will be a million dollars at retirement in 40 years. Lets start by eliminating new cars and then cable television, storage lockers, gym memberships, and newspaper, magazine or Internet subscriptions, all of which have cheap and available substitutes.
In today’s economy a $20,000 new car is common. Put $2,000 down and finance the rest on a 60 month self amortizing loan at 4 percent interest and monthly payments will be $331.50. If a new college graduate invested the $2,000 down payment for 40 years and invested the $331.40 each month for 5 years and then invested that five year total for the next 35 years, the total comes to $428,604.33, assuming the stock market return rates of the past continue in the future.
Few people want to acknowledge the place of a car in their personal finances. Today’s cars can and do go 200 thousand miles. Compare two people who keep a car for 10 years and drive it 10 thousand miles a year. Over forty years the one who buys and drives that car for the last 10 years and the last 100 thousand miles can expect to retire a millionaire on the invested savings.
Many people worry about the age of their car and forget that most of the wearing out and many of the costs of ownership - tires, brakes, oil changes - depend on mileage, not age. Worry that an old car will break down and strand you in the middle of no-where and therefore you need a new one, turns into an expensive worry.
Moving on I found a variety of cable television packages on the Internet that ranged from $44.24 a month up to premium services of $112.94. A typical 5 by 5 storage locker will go for $49 a month. Bigger 10 by 10 lockers go for up to $89 a month. Gym memberships vary but range up to $36 a month. I found magazine, newspaper and Internet subscriptions from $1.00 a month up to $2.95 a month.
Home ownership allows opportunities to choose do it yourself work that renters have to cover in their monthly rent. Still many homeowners hire home cleaning services and yard services. I found a typical home cleaning services at $90 for three hours of cleaning once a month. I found basic yard services at $49 a mow up to $85 for premium services.
For phone service I found phone and Internets services for $39 a month instead of unlimited nationwide talk and text cell charges at $59.95 a month, plus $30.00 more for a two gig data package. Many run over the data limits and add more charges. Phone bills now routinely run over a $100 a month for many.
There are people and families without enough discretionary income to buy any of these services. Those who have discretionary income could be millionaires with a little planning. Drop the $44.95 of cable television expense and use an aerial. Drop the $49 storage locker and store your own junk, or get rid of it. Drop the $36 a month gym membership and do your own exercise for free. Give up ten magazine, newspaper and Internet subscriptions and save $10 a month. Drop the maid service and save $90 a month. Get a $39 dollar a month phone and Internet package and save at least $60 on the fancy cell and data service packages. The total monthly savings is $289.95 a month, even without saving on a car.
Will you suffer doing without these services? I can’t answer that for you, but I am gonna be millionaire.
It got a laugh and it was funny the way he told it, his voice and exaggeration. Then he went on to tell about a personal choice he made back in the 1980’s after finishing college. The car he had was a used Chevrolet with no cachet, but it ran well and was reliable. The fancier car he wanted to buy at the time he said was $9,100. Of course he didn’t have the money, but he recalled the deal he got to buy it was $2,000 down and a three year loan at 7 percent for the rest. He didn’t buy the car but decided to take advantage of pension rules that allow savings to go untaxed in the stock market for decades. He claimed his “not buy a car” investment was worth around $100,000 dollars now.
Not buying a car put him 10 percent of the way to retiring a millionaire, but there are other goods and services that are relatively easy to do without or to substitute something much cheaper. Regular or monthly service charges for cable TV, storage lockers, gym memberships, newspaper, magazine and Internet subscriptions, cleaning services, yard services, and life insurance come to mind quickly.
Decisions not to buy deluxe cars, electronics and appliances over the budget models, or replace them early for the newer models can generate thousands of dollars at retirement. Even essential services like phone, heating and air conditioning allow more saving opportunities to become a millionaire.
How much buying to avoid and things to cut back to reach a million dollars depends on time and interest rates as it does in all financial accumulations. Assuming work starts between the ages of 18 and 22 and continues to the Social Security retirement age makes it reasonable to use forty years of work life to save for retirement. The many stock index funds give a comparable measure of expected returns for a retirement account. The Standard and Poors 500 index earned a 7.2 percent return for the decade ending 2014 assuming dividends were reinvested. For the past twenty-five years the Standard and Poors Index had a 9.4 percent return.
Using an 8 percent return rate and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet functions computes to $284.56 a month of consumer goods and services not purchased will be a million dollars at retirement in 40 years. Lets start by eliminating new cars and then cable television, storage lockers, gym memberships, and newspaper, magazine or Internet subscriptions, all of which have cheap and available substitutes.
In today’s economy a $20,000 new car is common. Put $2,000 down and finance the rest on a 60 month self amortizing loan at 4 percent interest and monthly payments will be $331.50. If a new college graduate invested the $2,000 down payment for 40 years and invested the $331.40 each month for 5 years and then invested that five year total for the next 35 years, the total comes to $428,604.33, assuming the stock market return rates of the past continue in the future.
Few people want to acknowledge the place of a car in their personal finances. Today’s cars can and do go 200 thousand miles. Compare two people who keep a car for 10 years and drive it 10 thousand miles a year. Over forty years the one who buys and drives that car for the last 10 years and the last 100 thousand miles can expect to retire a millionaire on the invested savings.
Many people worry about the age of their car and forget that most of the wearing out and many of the costs of ownership - tires, brakes, oil changes - depend on mileage, not age. Worry that an old car will break down and strand you in the middle of no-where and therefore you need a new one, turns into an expensive worry.
Moving on I found a variety of cable television packages on the Internet that ranged from $44.24 a month up to premium services of $112.94. A typical 5 by 5 storage locker will go for $49 a month. Bigger 10 by 10 lockers go for up to $89 a month. Gym memberships vary but range up to $36 a month. I found magazine, newspaper and Internet subscriptions from $1.00 a month up to $2.95 a month.
Home ownership allows opportunities to choose do it yourself work that renters have to cover in their monthly rent. Still many homeowners hire home cleaning services and yard services. I found a typical home cleaning services at $90 for three hours of cleaning once a month. I found basic yard services at $49 a mow up to $85 for premium services.
For phone service I found phone and Internets services for $39 a month instead of unlimited nationwide talk and text cell charges at $59.95 a month, plus $30.00 more for a two gig data package. Many run over the data limits and add more charges. Phone bills now routinely run over a $100 a month for many.
There are people and families without enough discretionary income to buy any of these services. Those who have discretionary income could be millionaires with a little planning. Drop the $44.95 of cable television expense and use an aerial. Drop the $49 storage locker and store your own junk, or get rid of it. Drop the $36 a month gym membership and do your own exercise for free. Give up ten magazine, newspaper and Internet subscriptions and save $10 a month. Drop the maid service and save $90 a month. Get a $39 dollar a month phone and Internet package and save at least $60 on the fancy cell and data service packages. The total monthly savings is $289.95 a month, even without saving on a car.
Will you suffer doing without these services? I can’t answer that for you, but I am gonna be millionaire.
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Needless Markup
Needless Markup
I have a friend who calls Neiman Marcus, Needless Markup, although probably lots of people do that. She still shops there but complains about the prices. I couldn’t resist the opportunity to report a modest but pleasing savings I made just three days before on a pair of $175 Nunn-Bush shoes. I got them for $7.99 at a Goodwill thrift shop. Better yet they were absolutely 100 percent new; not a scratch, not a scuff, on the tops, on the soles, anywhere.
Finding a brand new pair of shoes at Goodwill is lucky, but there is more to it than luck. Savings at thrift stores comes with strategy and patience. Never shop at a thrift store if you need something right away. If it’s Friday afternoon and you have to get new and respectable shoes for your sister’s wedding, then it’s not the time to go to Goodwill or any thrift.
Savings at thrift stores is a long term thing requiring regular, but short visits. At Goodwill stores and Salvation Army stores, especially in big metropolitan areas, the good stuff turns over very fast. That is important because infrequent visits mean lots of good stuff will come and go and you’ll never see it.
Frequent visits make it easier to spot the good stuff. Plan to stay twenty minutes to a half an hour, but never longer. Have a departmental route: pants, shirts, shoes, furniture, electronics, sporting goods, books and so on. Don’t linger. If the bargain is there, you will see it. If you stay too long you’ll get depressed looking at worn out stuff and begin thinking thrift shops are hopeless when they are not.
Thrift shops are a special preserve for those who like a challenge, but they pay off, especially when you find something you might not buy otherwise. The above mentioned shoes are only one of many fun buys. Include new to nearly new Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfiger, Bill Blass and Brooks Brothers shirts, Jos. A Banks pants, 3 all leather belts, New & Lingwood sweaters, a Harris Tweed sports coat, all bought for a song. Take that Needless Markup.
I have a friend who calls Neiman Marcus, Needless Markup, although probably lots of people do that. She still shops there but complains about the prices. I couldn’t resist the opportunity to report a modest but pleasing savings I made just three days before on a pair of $175 Nunn-Bush shoes. I got them for $7.99 at a Goodwill thrift shop. Better yet they were absolutely 100 percent new; not a scratch, not a scuff, on the tops, on the soles, anywhere.
Finding a brand new pair of shoes at Goodwill is lucky, but there is more to it than luck. Savings at thrift stores comes with strategy and patience. Never shop at a thrift store if you need something right away. If it’s Friday afternoon and you have to get new and respectable shoes for your sister’s wedding, then it’s not the time to go to Goodwill or any thrift.
Savings at thrift stores is a long term thing requiring regular, but short visits. At Goodwill stores and Salvation Army stores, especially in big metropolitan areas, the good stuff turns over very fast. That is important because infrequent visits mean lots of good stuff will come and go and you’ll never see it.
Frequent visits make it easier to spot the good stuff. Plan to stay twenty minutes to a half an hour, but never longer. Have a departmental route: pants, shirts, shoes, furniture, electronics, sporting goods, books and so on. Don’t linger. If the bargain is there, you will see it. If you stay too long you’ll get depressed looking at worn out stuff and begin thinking thrift shops are hopeless when they are not.
Thrift shops are a special preserve for those who like a challenge, but they pay off, especially when you find something you might not buy otherwise. The above mentioned shoes are only one of many fun buys. Include new to nearly new Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfiger, Bill Blass and Brooks Brothers shirts, Jos. A Banks pants, 3 all leather belts, New & Lingwood sweaters, a Harris Tweed sports coat, all bought for a song. Take that Needless Markup.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Jobs for Software Developers
Software Developers
Software Developers have two occupations
Standard Occupational Classification #15-1132 Software Developers, Applications
Standard Occupational Classification #15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software
SOC Definition for #15-1132 -- Develop, create, and modify general computer applications software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions. Design software or customize software for client use with the aim of optimizing operational efficiency. May analyze and design databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team. Excludes "Computer Hardware Engineers" (17-2061).
Examples of other common names in use -- Applications Developer; Programmer Analyst; Software Designer
SOC Definition for #15-1133 -- Research, design, develop, and test operating systems-level software, compilers, and network distribution software for medical, industrial, military, communications, aerospace, business, scientific, and general computing applications. Set operational specifications and formulate and analyze software requirements. May design embedded systems software. Apply principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis.
Examples of other common names in use--Developer, Infrastructure Engineer, Network Engineer, Publishing Systems Analyst, Senior Software Engineer, Software Architect, Software Developer, Software Engineer, Systems Coordinator, Systems Engineer
National 2013 employment as Software Developers was 1,017,340, 643,830 for software developers, applications, and 373,510 for software developers, system software.
Software Developers for Applications have some jobs in nearly every sector of the economy so anyone with these skills should expect to work in every sector of the economy. Job concentrations occur in professional and business services with 45 percent of the jobs that include 35 percent of the jobs in the computer systems design and related activities industry. Publishing including software publishers has 10 percent of jobs; finance and insurance has 9 percent of jobs. Manufacturing firms employ 8.5 percent of Software Developers for Applications spread among all manufacturing sub sectors with 5 percent in computer and electronic products manufacturing.
Software Developers, System Software have job concentrations in professional and business services with 47 percent of the jobs. Computer and electronic product manufacturing has 14 percent of jobs with another 5 percent scattered in other areas of manufacturing. Publishing has 5 percent, telecommunications and data processing, hosting and related services another 5 percent, with finance and insurance also at 5 percent.
The individual growth rate of new jobs per year since 2000 varies widely for the two occupations. Software developer for applications had a steady growth of 4.25 percent a year that averaged 20.7 thousand new jobs a year, triple job growth for the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting modest job growth of 14.0 thousand per year through 2022 at 2.08 percent a year
Software developers for system software had a steady increase of 2.69 percent a year that averaged 8.4 thousand new jobs a year since 2000, still rapid growth above the national average. The combined increase equals 29.1 thousand new jobs a year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting modest job growth of 8.3 thousand per year through 2022 at 1.88 percent a year.
Job growth is not the only measure of new hiring. Job openings equal job growth and the number of net replacements. Net replacements are people who permanently leave an occupation for another occupation or retirement and must be replaced before there can be any job growth. Job openings for software developers, for applications are forecast to be 21,850 a year through 2022. Job openings for software developers, system software are forecast to be 13,470 a year through 2022.
The recently updated BLS Education and Training Classification assignment lists BA degree skills as necessary for entry into both software developers for applications and system software. Previous work experience of 1 to 5 years is listed as an entry level requirement for the system software occupation, but not for applications. On-the-job training are not important factors in hiring for either.
New BA degrees in computing are part of 10 different Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services specialties and those 10 are part of 26 degree programs in Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services. BA degrees in Computer Science programs totaled 47,384 for the year ending 2012. The latest total is up from 47,299 degrees in 2001 but also down from 59,488 in 2004. The biggest share of these degrees are general survey courses in information systems and computer science and not specifically for software development. There were also 20,917 masters degrees and 1,698 doctorates in the computer science programs. Totals for computer degree programs have remained stable for over a decade but show no sign of increasing in spite of the excellent job prospects.
The ratio of relevant BA degrees to software developer openings equals 1.34, or 47,384/35,320. However, he total of computer graduates lags behind the number of job openings for the eleven computer occupations defined in the Standard Occupational Classification that use BA degree skills. There are 99.5 thousand job openings for the eleven BA degree occupations compared to 47,384 total computer BA degree candidates. To the extent that computer degree holders can find computing jobs from a variety of degree programs, there ratio of BA relevant BA degrees to job openings is .48, indicating a shortage of computer degrees from U.S. colleges.
The entry wage for software developers for applications is reported as $55,770 in 2013, which is also the 10th percentile wage. The median wage is $92,660, and the 90th percentile wage is $143,540. The wages of software developers for applications have kept up with inflation in recent years. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $79 780, in 2013, the software developer for application wage would need to be $92,189. Instead it was $92,660, a .51 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years.
The entry wage for software developers, systems software is reported as $63,140 in 2013, which is also the 10th percentile wage. The median wage is $101,410, and the 90th percentile wage is $150,760. The wages of software developers, systems software have kept up with inflation in recent years. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $85,370, in 2013, the software developer for application wage would need to be $98,648.98. Instead it was $101,410, a 2.8 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. The 90th percentile wage is 2.6 times the entry level wage, or 10th percentile wage, which implies there is opportunity for advancement.
Software Developers have two occupations
Standard Occupational Classification #15-1132 Software Developers, Applications
Standard Occupational Classification #15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software
SOC Definition for #15-1132 -- Develop, create, and modify general computer applications software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions. Design software or customize software for client use with the aim of optimizing operational efficiency. May analyze and design databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team. Excludes "Computer Hardware Engineers" (17-2061).
Examples of other common names in use -- Applications Developer; Programmer Analyst; Software Designer
SOC Definition for #15-1133 -- Research, design, develop, and test operating systems-level software, compilers, and network distribution software for medical, industrial, military, communications, aerospace, business, scientific, and general computing applications. Set operational specifications and formulate and analyze software requirements. May design embedded systems software. Apply principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis.
Examples of other common names in use--Developer, Infrastructure Engineer, Network Engineer, Publishing Systems Analyst, Senior Software Engineer, Software Architect, Software Developer, Software Engineer, Systems Coordinator, Systems Engineer
National 2013 employment as Software Developers was 1,017,340, 643,830 for software developers, applications, and 373,510 for software developers, system software.
Software Developers for Applications have some jobs in nearly every sector of the economy so anyone with these skills should expect to work in every sector of the economy. Job concentrations occur in professional and business services with 45 percent of the jobs that include 35 percent of the jobs in the computer systems design and related activities industry. Publishing including software publishers has 10 percent of jobs; finance and insurance has 9 percent of jobs. Manufacturing firms employ 8.5 percent of Software Developers for Applications spread among all manufacturing sub sectors with 5 percent in computer and electronic products manufacturing.
Software Developers, System Software have job concentrations in professional and business services with 47 percent of the jobs. Computer and electronic product manufacturing has 14 percent of jobs with another 5 percent scattered in other areas of manufacturing. Publishing has 5 percent, telecommunications and data processing, hosting and related services another 5 percent, with finance and insurance also at 5 percent.
The individual growth rate of new jobs per year since 2000 varies widely for the two occupations. Software developer for applications had a steady growth of 4.25 percent a year that averaged 20.7 thousand new jobs a year, triple job growth for the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting modest job growth of 14.0 thousand per year through 2022 at 2.08 percent a year
Software developers for system software had a steady increase of 2.69 percent a year that averaged 8.4 thousand new jobs a year since 2000, still rapid growth above the national average. The combined increase equals 29.1 thousand new jobs a year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting modest job growth of 8.3 thousand per year through 2022 at 1.88 percent a year.
Job growth is not the only measure of new hiring. Job openings equal job growth and the number of net replacements. Net replacements are people who permanently leave an occupation for another occupation or retirement and must be replaced before there can be any job growth. Job openings for software developers, for applications are forecast to be 21,850 a year through 2022. Job openings for software developers, system software are forecast to be 13,470 a year through 2022.
The recently updated BLS Education and Training Classification assignment lists BA degree skills as necessary for entry into both software developers for applications and system software. Previous work experience of 1 to 5 years is listed as an entry level requirement for the system software occupation, but not for applications. On-the-job training are not important factors in hiring for either.
New BA degrees in computing are part of 10 different Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services specialties and those 10 are part of 26 degree programs in Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services. BA degrees in Computer Science programs totaled 47,384 for the year ending 2012. The latest total is up from 47,299 degrees in 2001 but also down from 59,488 in 2004. The biggest share of these degrees are general survey courses in information systems and computer science and not specifically for software development. There were also 20,917 masters degrees and 1,698 doctorates in the computer science programs. Totals for computer degree programs have remained stable for over a decade but show no sign of increasing in spite of the excellent job prospects.
The ratio of relevant BA degrees to software developer openings equals 1.34, or 47,384/35,320. However, he total of computer graduates lags behind the number of job openings for the eleven computer occupations defined in the Standard Occupational Classification that use BA degree skills. There are 99.5 thousand job openings for the eleven BA degree occupations compared to 47,384 total computer BA degree candidates. To the extent that computer degree holders can find computing jobs from a variety of degree programs, there ratio of BA relevant BA degrees to job openings is .48, indicating a shortage of computer degrees from U.S. colleges.
The entry wage for software developers for applications is reported as $55,770 in 2013, which is also the 10th percentile wage. The median wage is $92,660, and the 90th percentile wage is $143,540. The wages of software developers for applications have kept up with inflation in recent years. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $79 780, in 2013, the software developer for application wage would need to be $92,189. Instead it was $92,660, a .51 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years.
The entry wage for software developers, systems software is reported as $63,140 in 2013, which is also the 10th percentile wage. The median wage is $101,410, and the 90th percentile wage is $150,760. The wages of software developers, systems software have kept up with inflation in recent years. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $85,370, in 2013, the software developer for application wage would need to be $98,648.98. Instead it was $101,410, a 2.8 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. The 90th percentile wage is 2.6 times the entry level wage, or 10th percentile wage, which implies there is opportunity for advancement.
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Jobs for Librarians
Librarians and Library Technicians
Standard Occupational Classification #25-4021 Librarians
Standard Occupational Classification #25-4031 Library Technicians
SOC Definition - Librarians #25-4021 – Administer libraries and perform related library services. Work in a variety of settings, including public libraries, schools, colleges and universities, museums, corporations, government agencies, law firms, non-profit organizations, and healthcare providers. Tasks may include selecting, acquiring, cataloguing, classifying, circulating, and maintaining library materials; and furnishing reference, bibliographical, and readers' advisory services. May perform in-depth, strategic research, and synthesize, analyze, edit, and filter information. May set up or work with databases and information systems to catalogue and access information.
Examples of other common names in use: School Library Media Specialist; Circulation Manager
SOC Definition - Library Technicians #25-4031 -- Assist librarians by helping readers in the use of library catalogs, databases, and indexes to locate books and other materials; and by answering questions that require only brief consultation of standard reference. Compile records; sort and shelve books; remove or repair damaged books; register patrons; check materials in and out of the circulation process. Replace materials in shelving area (stacks) or files. Include bookmobile drivers who operate bookmobiles or light trucks that pull trailers to specific locations on a predetermined schedule and assist with providing services in mobile libraries. Examples of other common names in use: Assistant Librarian, Bookmobile Driver.
America employs 136.5 thousand librarians and 96 thousand library technicians. Roughly 58 percent of librarians are employed in schools and colleges, 5 percent in independent libraries and archives, 32 percent in government excluding education and another percent or two scattered at law firms, research or professional associations. Library Technicians have 37 percent employed in schools and colleges, 6 percent in independent libraries and archives, 54 percent in government excluding education and the rest scattered in other industries.
Librarians need a master’s degree in library science to be considered; library technicians need some vocational training, work experience, or associates degree training with an emphasis on computers. Both librarians and library technicians need to be able to work in schools as well as public libraries.
Jobs as librarians have slowly declined for more than a decade. Jobs for librarians declined an average 227 a year from 2000 at an annual growth rate of -.16 percent. Jobs as library technicians also have slowly declined since 2000 with an average decrease of 362 a year at an annual growth rate of -.37 percent. In spite of the recent decline the Bureau of Labor Statistics has forecasted a small increase of both occupations through 2022. It is 1.1 thousand a year for librarians and 900 a year for library technicians.
Job openings make a better measure of new hiring than job growth. Job openings are job growth and the number of net replacements. Net replacements are people who permanently leave an occupation for another occupation or retirement and must be replaced before there can be job growth. Job openings for librarians are forecast to be 4,440 a year through 2022. Job openings for library technicians are forecast to be 6,630 a year through 2022.
The recently updated BLS Education and Training Classification assignments lists MA degree skills as necessary for entry into jobs as librarians and training in a post-secondary program for library technicians. Previous work experience and on-the-job training are not important factors in hiring. However, percentages from survey data are published for library and library technicians that show an educational distribution where 58.7 percent of librarians have a master’s degree, 36 percent have some college up to a BA degree and almost 5 percent have a doctorate in some related field. Library technicians show an educational distribution where 38.6 percent have a high school or less than high school education, 48.3 percent have some college up to a BA degree and only 11.3 percent have a master’s degree.
The National Center for Education Statistics reports degree data for America’s colleges and universities that can be compared with job growth and openings. New master’s degrees in library science for the year ending June 2011 were 7,441, which is up from 2010 when the total was 7,727. Because the master’s degree is the entry level degree only a hand full of BA degree programs in library science exist at America’s colleges and universities. There are virtually no BA degrees in library science. Computer science is a good undergraduate degree before entering a library science master’s program.
The ratio of relevant MA degrees to librarian openings equals 1.68, or 7,441/4,440, assuring more than enough qualified candidates to fill job openings. Openings minus entry degrees are 7,441 – 4,440 = 3,001 degrees over openings indicating some surplus of qualified applicants.
The basic wage data from the BLS occupational employment survey includes a wage distribution. Averages are not used much in wage data. A few high wages pull up the average and make it unrepresentative. Instead a distribution range of wages is published with the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentiles of wages. A 10th percentile wage means 10 percent working in this job have wages equal to or less than the 10th percentile wage and so on. Annual wages are converted to hourly wages by dividing annual wages by 2080.
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for librarians is reported as $33,380 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $43,890. The median wage is $55,690, the 75th percentile wage equals $70,010 and the 90th percentile wage is $86,360.
The wages of Librarians have not kept up with inflation in recent years. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $49,060 in 2013, the librarian wage would need to be $56,690.80. In stead it was $55,690, a 1.77 percent decrease in the real wage for those seven years.
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for library technicians is reported as $18,820 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $23,740. The median wage is $31,280, the 75th percentile wage equals $40,320 and the 90th percentile wage is $49,650.
The wages of library technicians have kept up with inflation in recent years. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $26 560, in 2013, the library technician wage would need to be $30.691.15. Instead it was $31,280, a 1.92 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years.
Standard Occupational Classification #25-4021 Librarians
Standard Occupational Classification #25-4031 Library Technicians
SOC Definition - Librarians #25-4021 – Administer libraries and perform related library services. Work in a variety of settings, including public libraries, schools, colleges and universities, museums, corporations, government agencies, law firms, non-profit organizations, and healthcare providers. Tasks may include selecting, acquiring, cataloguing, classifying, circulating, and maintaining library materials; and furnishing reference, bibliographical, and readers' advisory services. May perform in-depth, strategic research, and synthesize, analyze, edit, and filter information. May set up or work with databases and information systems to catalogue and access information.
Examples of other common names in use: School Library Media Specialist; Circulation Manager
SOC Definition - Library Technicians #25-4031 -- Assist librarians by helping readers in the use of library catalogs, databases, and indexes to locate books and other materials; and by answering questions that require only brief consultation of standard reference. Compile records; sort and shelve books; remove or repair damaged books; register patrons; check materials in and out of the circulation process. Replace materials in shelving area (stacks) or files. Include bookmobile drivers who operate bookmobiles or light trucks that pull trailers to specific locations on a predetermined schedule and assist with providing services in mobile libraries. Examples of other common names in use: Assistant Librarian, Bookmobile Driver.
America employs 136.5 thousand librarians and 96 thousand library technicians. Roughly 58 percent of librarians are employed in schools and colleges, 5 percent in independent libraries and archives, 32 percent in government excluding education and another percent or two scattered at law firms, research or professional associations. Library Technicians have 37 percent employed in schools and colleges, 6 percent in independent libraries and archives, 54 percent in government excluding education and the rest scattered in other industries.
Librarians need a master’s degree in library science to be considered; library technicians need some vocational training, work experience, or associates degree training with an emphasis on computers. Both librarians and library technicians need to be able to work in schools as well as public libraries.
Jobs as librarians have slowly declined for more than a decade. Jobs for librarians declined an average 227 a year from 2000 at an annual growth rate of -.16 percent. Jobs as library technicians also have slowly declined since 2000 with an average decrease of 362 a year at an annual growth rate of -.37 percent. In spite of the recent decline the Bureau of Labor Statistics has forecasted a small increase of both occupations through 2022. It is 1.1 thousand a year for librarians and 900 a year for library technicians.
Job openings make a better measure of new hiring than job growth. Job openings are job growth and the number of net replacements. Net replacements are people who permanently leave an occupation for another occupation or retirement and must be replaced before there can be job growth. Job openings for librarians are forecast to be 4,440 a year through 2022. Job openings for library technicians are forecast to be 6,630 a year through 2022.
The recently updated BLS Education and Training Classification assignments lists MA degree skills as necessary for entry into jobs as librarians and training in a post-secondary program for library technicians. Previous work experience and on-the-job training are not important factors in hiring. However, percentages from survey data are published for library and library technicians that show an educational distribution where 58.7 percent of librarians have a master’s degree, 36 percent have some college up to a BA degree and almost 5 percent have a doctorate in some related field. Library technicians show an educational distribution where 38.6 percent have a high school or less than high school education, 48.3 percent have some college up to a BA degree and only 11.3 percent have a master’s degree.
The National Center for Education Statistics reports degree data for America’s colleges and universities that can be compared with job growth and openings. New master’s degrees in library science for the year ending June 2011 were 7,441, which is up from 2010 when the total was 7,727. Because the master’s degree is the entry level degree only a hand full of BA degree programs in library science exist at America’s colleges and universities. There are virtually no BA degrees in library science. Computer science is a good undergraduate degree before entering a library science master’s program.
The ratio of relevant MA degrees to librarian openings equals 1.68, or 7,441/4,440, assuring more than enough qualified candidates to fill job openings. Openings minus entry degrees are 7,441 – 4,440 = 3,001 degrees over openings indicating some surplus of qualified applicants.
The basic wage data from the BLS occupational employment survey includes a wage distribution. Averages are not used much in wage data. A few high wages pull up the average and make it unrepresentative. Instead a distribution range of wages is published with the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentiles of wages. A 10th percentile wage means 10 percent working in this job have wages equal to or less than the 10th percentile wage and so on. Annual wages are converted to hourly wages by dividing annual wages by 2080.
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for librarians is reported as $33,380 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $43,890. The median wage is $55,690, the 75th percentile wage equals $70,010 and the 90th percentile wage is $86,360.
The wages of Librarians have not kept up with inflation in recent years. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $49,060 in 2013, the librarian wage would need to be $56,690.80. In stead it was $55,690, a 1.77 percent decrease in the real wage for those seven years.
The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for library technicians is reported as $18,820 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $23,740. The median wage is $31,280, the 75th percentile wage equals $40,320 and the 90th percentile wage is $49,650.
The wages of library technicians have kept up with inflation in recent years. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $26 560, in 2013, the library technician wage would need to be $30.691.15. Instead it was $31,280, a 1.92 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years.
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Capital in the Twenty First Century
Thomas Piketty, translated from French by Arthur Goldhammer, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014) 577 pages, $39.95.
Capital in the Twenty-First Century by French economist Thomas Piketty studies and examines the only controversial question in economics: the distribution of income and wealth. It studies distribution between capital and labor, among wage earners, among capital owners, between countries and over several hundred years.
Few authors of economics books more than 500 pages with analytical foundations and a reflective data driven discussion attract attention in the popular media as Piketty has done. Paul Krugman comes to mind, but his notoriety comes in small doses from his New York Times editorials more than his books. None of Krugman’s books resemble Piketty’s except they both challenge the status quo and say things America’s wealthy like suppressed.
The book has four parts divided into sixteen chapters and subchapters that builds an economic framework and applies it to data from national income accounts. Data and discussion applies to France, Great Britain, Germany and the United States and a few more countries where data is available. Piketty develops his arguments after an expansive and rambling thirty-eight page introduction that has nearly as much to say about Piketty and the economics fraternity as it does about capital in the twenty first century.
The two part I chapters define terms from National Income Accounts: national income, capital, wealth, the capital to income ratio and growth of output, population, and per capita output. Piketty applies these terms in his first fundamental law of capitalism, which is the accounting identity α = r x β, where alpha(α) equals capital’s share of national income or the capital-labor split, r is the percentage rate of return on capital and Beta(β) is a ratio equal to the value of capital necessary to generate a years worth of national income.
The part II chapters develop an expanded discussion of Beta(β), the capital-income ratio already introduced. Here he applies his second fundamental law of capitalism: Beta(β) = s/g, where s is the percentage of net private saving and g is a percentage growth in national income. Economist readers will recognize this second fundamental law as a clever adaptation of market growth theory. Long ago economists theorized growth of national income depended on the saving rate multiplied by the ratio of income to capital, or g = s x (1/ β). Using the rules of algebra Piketty converted the equation to make the capital to income ratio depend on the ratio s/g. The conversion gives him a second way to study inequality.
Piketty builds his inequality discussion around these two fundamental laws. Several chapter five tables give example growth rates and saving rates in eight rich countries including the United States for the years 1970 to 2010. Both fundamental laws generate ratios to allow inter-country and inter-temporal comparisons of inequality. The data suggest the richer countries can expect s greater than g and r greater than g over long periods that can generate an ever higher capital to income ratio. If r = 5% and g = 1% then the wealthy have to consume at least 80 percent of their high incomes or capital will grow faster than national income and inequality will get worse.
Part II chapters report, chart and discuss the results for national economies where Piketty concludes that inequality does not necessarily diminish from market forces and can get much worse over time. This main or primary conclusion is also summarized in the introduction and again in the brief conclusion. Readers can get the main point with just the introduction and conclusion as I have heard people say they did, but only by missing extensive historical discussion and the much more detailed breakdown of inequality that comes in the part III material.
Keep in mind that Piketty has spent countless hours mastering the intricacies of national income accounting in a way that few American economists do. Our Federal government produces fine data for the U.S. economy but American economists still prefer theorizing while Piketty has built and maintains massive multi-country data files to test if its all true, or needs a few adjustments.
Part III makes extensive use of these data files in discussions that use forty percent of the book to cover inequality for combined capital and labor income, for labor income, for capital income, for inheritance and for wealth. The first of the six chapters in the structure of inequality section gives an introductory warm up to the others.
Piketty begins his warm up chapter with a plot summary from the Honore de Balzac novel, Pere Goriot. Occasional allusions to literature and history give a nice break to otherwise continuous technical material. The plot and characters in Pere Goriot contrast the inequality of class and culture from France around 1835, but you too may feel the parallel to the fading meritocracy of 2014. Then he summarizes and defines terms for the low, medium and high inequality he describes in more detail in the chapters that follow.
These remaining part III chapters build discussion from numerous charts that measure inequality of income and wealth for different countries over time, mostly 1910 to 2010 for income inequality and 1810-2010 for wealth inequality. Most charts plot the share of the top 10 percent of income, the decile, or 1 percent of income, the centile, against time, and similarly for wealth.
In the United States of the late 1920’s the top 10 percent had almost 50 percent of national income. That share declined in the depression and stayed 32 to 35 percent until 1980, but climbed back to 50 percent by 2010.
Wealth distributions generate greater inequality than income because the bottom half of a country’s population typically has no wealth at all. The U.S. share of the top 10 percent of wealth reached a high of 80 per cent in 1910. It dropped to 65 percent by 1950, before beginning a slow by steady climb to 70 percent in 2010.
One of many Piketty interpretations included “. . . there is absolutely no doubt that the increase of inequality in the United States contributed to the nation’s financial instability. The reason is simple: one consequence of increasing inequality was virtual stagnation of the purchasing power of the lower and middle classes in the United States . . .”
Part IV has four chapters in a hundred page discussion of policy that repeatedly returns to the need for progressive taxation to correct for inequality. At page 497 he writes “The progressive tax is indispensable for making sure that everyone benefits from globalization, and the increasingly glaring absence of progressive taxation may ultimately undermine support for a globalized economy.”
He argues in favor of a progressive capital tax, but he offers support for, and historical discussion of, progressive income and inheritance taxes. He warns the rich progressive taxes offer a way to correct for inequality without undermining private property and the forces of competition.
The book is unnecessarily long in part because Piketty, or his editor, adopted conventions common to college textbooks. These are repeated plan of the book sections that give a roadmap of material yet to come and excessive introduction and summary. “I want to tell you about something important, but I can’t do that until I tell you about this, and then this, and then I will get back to that.” Textbook editors love this stuff but it is hard to follow or understand what you will read about later. I think of it as surplus.
More pages are added with material intended only for economists. Non-economists should notice in the introduction where he tells readers he was hired to teach at a university near Boston after finishing graduate school. He left off the name, MIT. After three years he went back to France. Then he writes “the discipline of economics has yet to get over its childish passion for mathematics and for purely theoretical and often highly ideological speculation, at the expense of historical research and collaboration with the other social sciences.”
Piketty learned at MIT that economics education at American colleges walks a fine line between education and indoctrination. American economists are expected to conform and confirm that capitalism and free enterprise bring ideal results. They theorize in ever more complex ways because they have nothing else to do. They avoid data that contradicts theory or career opportunities decline, or disappear.
His experience at MIT clearly left him with the urge to take a few pokes at American economists. After page 200 he brings in the Cobb-Douglas Production function, the elasticity of substitution, the Roy Harrod, Evsey Domar and Robert Solow growth theories, marginal productivity theory, Franco Modigliani’s Life Cycle theory and a few more; all standard fare in economics graduate programs at American Colleges. He can’t resist reporting his data contradict these long established market theories, but non-economists can skip this insider stuff.
Still there are many things to admire about this book that I can recommend it to non-economists. Non-economists can follow the principal arguments if they read carefully, study the charts, and doggedly keep in mind the difference between stocks and flows after he defines them in Part I and gives examples.
Piketty has attracted attention in the United States similar to British economist John Maynard Keynes after he published his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money way back in 1936. The General Theory is not a general theory at all, but an abstract discussion of special cases in which Keynes describes conditions where markets and the economy break down and need an active policy of correction, even, god forbid, a policy of government spending.
Politicians and the Chamber of Commerce still attack and condemn Keynes after 78 years, but only a few of them care enough to read or study what he wrote; they just dislike his conclusions. It is early in the Piketty discussion but there are plenty of wealthy and well to do ready to condemn his conclusions without reading what he wrote. Keynes wrote only for economists while Piketty tries, somewhat erratically, for a broader audience. With some extra effort you can decide for yourself. It will be slow going, but forge ahead and the like.
Capital in the Twenty-First Century by French economist Thomas Piketty studies and examines the only controversial question in economics: the distribution of income and wealth. It studies distribution between capital and labor, among wage earners, among capital owners, between countries and over several hundred years.
Few authors of economics books more than 500 pages with analytical foundations and a reflective data driven discussion attract attention in the popular media as Piketty has done. Paul Krugman comes to mind, but his notoriety comes in small doses from his New York Times editorials more than his books. None of Krugman’s books resemble Piketty’s except they both challenge the status quo and say things America’s wealthy like suppressed.
The book has four parts divided into sixteen chapters and subchapters that builds an economic framework and applies it to data from national income accounts. Data and discussion applies to France, Great Britain, Germany and the United States and a few more countries where data is available. Piketty develops his arguments after an expansive and rambling thirty-eight page introduction that has nearly as much to say about Piketty and the economics fraternity as it does about capital in the twenty first century.
The two part I chapters define terms from National Income Accounts: national income, capital, wealth, the capital to income ratio and growth of output, population, and per capita output. Piketty applies these terms in his first fundamental law of capitalism, which is the accounting identity α = r x β, where alpha(α) equals capital’s share of national income or the capital-labor split, r is the percentage rate of return on capital and Beta(β) is a ratio equal to the value of capital necessary to generate a years worth of national income.
The part II chapters develop an expanded discussion of Beta(β), the capital-income ratio already introduced. Here he applies his second fundamental law of capitalism: Beta(β) = s/g, where s is the percentage of net private saving and g is a percentage growth in national income. Economist readers will recognize this second fundamental law as a clever adaptation of market growth theory. Long ago economists theorized growth of national income depended on the saving rate multiplied by the ratio of income to capital, or g = s x (1/ β). Using the rules of algebra Piketty converted the equation to make the capital to income ratio depend on the ratio s/g. The conversion gives him a second way to study inequality.
Piketty builds his inequality discussion around these two fundamental laws. Several chapter five tables give example growth rates and saving rates in eight rich countries including the United States for the years 1970 to 2010. Both fundamental laws generate ratios to allow inter-country and inter-temporal comparisons of inequality. The data suggest the richer countries can expect s greater than g and r greater than g over long periods that can generate an ever higher capital to income ratio. If r = 5% and g = 1% then the wealthy have to consume at least 80 percent of their high incomes or capital will grow faster than national income and inequality will get worse.
Part II chapters report, chart and discuss the results for national economies where Piketty concludes that inequality does not necessarily diminish from market forces and can get much worse over time. This main or primary conclusion is also summarized in the introduction and again in the brief conclusion. Readers can get the main point with just the introduction and conclusion as I have heard people say they did, but only by missing extensive historical discussion and the much more detailed breakdown of inequality that comes in the part III material.
Keep in mind that Piketty has spent countless hours mastering the intricacies of national income accounting in a way that few American economists do. Our Federal government produces fine data for the U.S. economy but American economists still prefer theorizing while Piketty has built and maintains massive multi-country data files to test if its all true, or needs a few adjustments.
Part III makes extensive use of these data files in discussions that use forty percent of the book to cover inequality for combined capital and labor income, for labor income, for capital income, for inheritance and for wealth. The first of the six chapters in the structure of inequality section gives an introductory warm up to the others.
Piketty begins his warm up chapter with a plot summary from the Honore de Balzac novel, Pere Goriot. Occasional allusions to literature and history give a nice break to otherwise continuous technical material. The plot and characters in Pere Goriot contrast the inequality of class and culture from France around 1835, but you too may feel the parallel to the fading meritocracy of 2014. Then he summarizes and defines terms for the low, medium and high inequality he describes in more detail in the chapters that follow.
These remaining part III chapters build discussion from numerous charts that measure inequality of income and wealth for different countries over time, mostly 1910 to 2010 for income inequality and 1810-2010 for wealth inequality. Most charts plot the share of the top 10 percent of income, the decile, or 1 percent of income, the centile, against time, and similarly for wealth.
In the United States of the late 1920’s the top 10 percent had almost 50 percent of national income. That share declined in the depression and stayed 32 to 35 percent until 1980, but climbed back to 50 percent by 2010.
Wealth distributions generate greater inequality than income because the bottom half of a country’s population typically has no wealth at all. The U.S. share of the top 10 percent of wealth reached a high of 80 per cent in 1910. It dropped to 65 percent by 1950, before beginning a slow by steady climb to 70 percent in 2010.
One of many Piketty interpretations included “. . . there is absolutely no doubt that the increase of inequality in the United States contributed to the nation’s financial instability. The reason is simple: one consequence of increasing inequality was virtual stagnation of the purchasing power of the lower and middle classes in the United States . . .”
Part IV has four chapters in a hundred page discussion of policy that repeatedly returns to the need for progressive taxation to correct for inequality. At page 497 he writes “The progressive tax is indispensable for making sure that everyone benefits from globalization, and the increasingly glaring absence of progressive taxation may ultimately undermine support for a globalized economy.”
He argues in favor of a progressive capital tax, but he offers support for, and historical discussion of, progressive income and inheritance taxes. He warns the rich progressive taxes offer a way to correct for inequality without undermining private property and the forces of competition.
The book is unnecessarily long in part because Piketty, or his editor, adopted conventions common to college textbooks. These are repeated plan of the book sections that give a roadmap of material yet to come and excessive introduction and summary. “I want to tell you about something important, but I can’t do that until I tell you about this, and then this, and then I will get back to that.” Textbook editors love this stuff but it is hard to follow or understand what you will read about later. I think of it as surplus.
More pages are added with material intended only for economists. Non-economists should notice in the introduction where he tells readers he was hired to teach at a university near Boston after finishing graduate school. He left off the name, MIT. After three years he went back to France. Then he writes “the discipline of economics has yet to get over its childish passion for mathematics and for purely theoretical and often highly ideological speculation, at the expense of historical research and collaboration with the other social sciences.”
Piketty learned at MIT that economics education at American colleges walks a fine line between education and indoctrination. American economists are expected to conform and confirm that capitalism and free enterprise bring ideal results. They theorize in ever more complex ways because they have nothing else to do. They avoid data that contradicts theory or career opportunities decline, or disappear.
His experience at MIT clearly left him with the urge to take a few pokes at American economists. After page 200 he brings in the Cobb-Douglas Production function, the elasticity of substitution, the Roy Harrod, Evsey Domar and Robert Solow growth theories, marginal productivity theory, Franco Modigliani’s Life Cycle theory and a few more; all standard fare in economics graduate programs at American Colleges. He can’t resist reporting his data contradict these long established market theories, but non-economists can skip this insider stuff.
Still there are many things to admire about this book that I can recommend it to non-economists. Non-economists can follow the principal arguments if they read carefully, study the charts, and doggedly keep in mind the difference between stocks and flows after he defines them in Part I and gives examples.
Piketty has attracted attention in the United States similar to British economist John Maynard Keynes after he published his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money way back in 1936. The General Theory is not a general theory at all, but an abstract discussion of special cases in which Keynes describes conditions where markets and the economy break down and need an active policy of correction, even, god forbid, a policy of government spending.
Politicians and the Chamber of Commerce still attack and condemn Keynes after 78 years, but only a few of them care enough to read or study what he wrote; they just dislike his conclusions. It is early in the Piketty discussion but there are plenty of wealthy and well to do ready to condemn his conclusions without reading what he wrote. Keynes wrote only for economists while Piketty tries, somewhat erratically, for a broader audience. With some extra effort you can decide for yourself. It will be slow going, but forge ahead and the like.
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