Friday, October 6, 2023

Labor Line

March 2024___________________________________ 

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

 This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below

 The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released March 8, 2024. American Job Market The Chronicle 

 Current Job and Employment Data 

Jobs

Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 275,000 to 157,808,000

Total Private Jobs up 223,000 to 134,628,000

Total Government Employment up 52,000 to 23,180,000 Note 

Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 171,000 to 267,711,000

Civilian Labor Force up 150,000 to 167,426,000

Employed down 184,000 to 160,968,000

Employed Men down 41,000 to 84,993,000

Employed Women down 143,000 to 75,975,000

Unemployed up 334,00 to 6,458,000

Not in the Labor Force up 20,000 to 100,285,000

Unemployment Rate went up .2% to 3.9% or 6,458/167,426

Labor Force Participation Rate stayed the same at 62.5%, or 167,426/267.711

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 8.0 percent for 2022. 

The CPI report for February the 12 months ending with January shows the 

CPI for All Items was up 3.4% 

CPI for Food and Beverages was up 2.7% 

CPI for Housing was up 4.8% 

CPI for Apparel was up 1.0% 

CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 2.9% 

CPI for Medical Care was up .5% 

CPI for Recreation was up 2.7% 

CPI for Education was up 2.4% 

CPI for Communication was down 1.7% 

This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report

ANOTHER GOOD INCREASE

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its March report for jobs in February. The employed went down 184 thousand along with an increase of 334 thousand in the unemployed, combining to an increase of 150 thousand in the civilian labor force. The decrease of the employed combined with the increase in the unemployed combined to increase the unemployment rate by .2 percent to 3.9 percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 275 thousand for February. The increase was 204 thousand more jobs in the private service sector combined with a 19 thousand increase in jobs from goods production. The total of 223 thousand jobs gained in the private sector combined with a(n) increase of 52 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production had a net increase of 19 thousand jobs. Natural resources stayed at 640 thousand; construction was up a net 23 thousand jobs with heavy and civil engineering construction leading the way with 12.5 thousand new jobs; specialty trade contractors and construction of buildings added a combined total of 10.5 thousand jobs. Manufacturing jobs were down a net of 4 thousand with durable goods manufacturing jobs up 2 thousand but non-durable goods jobs down 6 thousand. Among durable goods, fabricated metal products added 4.4 thousand jobs; electrical equipment and appliances added another 2.5 thousand jobs combined with other small job losses. Nondurable goods did poorly with all but two subsectors losing jobs. Beverage, tobacco and leather products added 1.1 thousand jobs as the biggest gainer for nondurable employment.

Government service employment increased 52 thousand jobs, higher than last month. The federal government added 9 thousand jobs, state government 5 thousand; local government 38 thousand new jobs. State and local jobs excluding education increased 29.4 thousand with 25.5 thousand of the jobs in local government. State government jobs in education were up 1.8 thousand while local government education were up 12.2 thousand jobs. Education jobs in the private sector were down by 5.6 thousand jobs, which brings the education total to a net gain of 8.4 thousand jobs.

Health care took first place for private service sector job gains again this month with 91 thousand new jobs, a little less than last month. All four of the health care subsectors had more jobs as has been true in recent months. Ambulatory care added 28 thousand jobs; hospitals added 27.7 thousand jobs; nursing and residential care added 11.0 thousand new jobs. Social assistance services had 24.0 thousand new jobs with individual and family services adding 19.0 thousand of the social service jobs. The growth rate for health care this month, down slightly from last month, came to 4.93 percent, well above the average of 2.02 percent per month of the last 15 years.

Professional and business services added 9 thousand jobs, way down from last month. The professional and technical services subsector added 15.7 thousand more jobs, more than last month. Management of companies added another 3.3 thousand jobs offset with job losses in administrative and support services including waste management, down 10.2 thousand jobs.

Among professional and technical services architecture, engineering and related services added 6.4 thousand jobs; computing systems design and related services added a modest 4.2 thousand jobs; management, scientific and technical consulting services usually a big job gainer was off about a thousand jobs. Among administrative and support services, no subsector did well; temporary help service dropped 15.4 thousand jobs. Investigation and security services and services to buildings also had small job gains.

Trade, transportation and utilities had an increase of 40 thousand jobs, ending a trend of job losses. Wholesale trade had a small job loss offset with retail that had 18.7 thousand new jobs, mostly in department stores and warehouse clubs. Transportation jobs had 19.7 thousand new jobs with 17.3 thousand of them in courier and messenger services. Modal transportation had a net gain of 6.5 thousand jobs with air lines having 3.9 thousand of the jobs.

Leisure and hospitality had a net of 58 thousand more jobs. Arts, entertainment and recreation had a good month adding 13.3 thousand jobs and 8.5 thousand of those jobs in amusements, gambling and recreation. Accommodations and restaurants revived after last month’s poor showing with 44.6 thousand jobs, 41.6 thousand at restaurants. Leisure and hospitality now have 16.882 million jobs, that leaves it 33 thousand jobs less than its maximum employment which came in the pandemic month of February 2020.

Information services added 2 thousand jobs. Like last month it was the motion picture industry with 3.2 thousand jobs that dominated the job gains; there were some additional gains of 2.2 thousand jobs in the publishing industry mixed with other sub sector job losses. Financial Activities had a net gain of a thousand jobs again with jobs losses in the finance and insurance sub sector of 2.8 thousand jobs combined with modest job gains in real estate, rental and leasing services of 3.5 thousand jobs. Among finance and insurance, all the credit sub sectors, basically banks, lost jobs offset with an insurance gain of 4.2 thousand jobs. Real estate added 3.3 thousand jobs and rental and leasing added another .2 thousand. The category, other, had a net gain of 9.5 thousand jobs with personal and laundry services up 2.1 thousand jobs. Repair and maintenance added 1.7 thousand jobs while non-profit membership associations 5.7 thousand jobs.

The economy added 275 thousand jobs for February, continuing the monthly increases with a total establishment employment in February 2024 of 157.808 million and an annual growth rate of 2.09 percent. The health care sector continues to be the major contributor to job growth with 91 thousand new jobs that has contributed more than a million jobs since the pre-pandemic totals. Job growth in health care had 33 percent of this month’s job growth. This month’s job total is 2.553 million above February a year ago and 6.798 million jobs above February two years ago.

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February Details 

Non Farm Total +275

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from January by 275 thousand jobs for a(n) February total of 157.808 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 275 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of +2.09% The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning February 2023 was +1.64%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning February 2019 was +1.00%; from 15 years ago beginning February 2009 it was +1.13%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs 

1. Natural Resources +0

Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining had no change from January with 635 thousand jobs in February. A decrease of 0 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of 0.0 percent.  Natural resource jobs are up 7 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in 2000 averaged around 600 thousand with little prospect for growth.  This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .4 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +23

Construction jobs were up 23 thousand from January with 8.162 million jobs in February. An increase of 23 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.39 percent.  Construction jobs are up 263 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is 1.92%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 5.2 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing -4

Manufacturing jobs were down 4 thousand from January with 12.964 million jobs in February. A decrease of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.37 percent.  Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 12 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.21%; for the last 15 years by +.31%. Manufacturing ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.2 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +40

Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment were up 40 thousand jobs from January with 28.892 million jobs in February. An increase of 40 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of 1.66 percent. Jobs are up by 28 thousand for last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +.85 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.3 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services +2

Information Services jobs were up 2 thousand from January with 3.020 million jobs in February.  An increase of 2 thousand in jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.80 percent. (Note 2 below)  Jobs are down by 69 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 and has slowly come back to 3.0 million in the last decade. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +1

Financial Activities jobs were up 1 thousand from January at 9.233 million in February. An increase of 1 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of
+.13 percent. Jobs are up 133 thousand for the last 12 months.  (Note 3 below) This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +1.22 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +.99 percent. Financial activities rank 8th of 12 with 5.9 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business and Professional Services +9

Business and Professional Service jobs went up 9 thousand from January to 22.931 million in February. An increase of 9 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.47 percent. Jobs are up 52 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was +1.62 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was 2nd in 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.5 percent of establishment employment. 

8. Education including public and private +8

Education jobs went up 8 thousand jobs from January at 14.560 million in February. An increase of 8 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.69 percent. These include public and private education. Jobs are up 255 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.48 percent. Education ranks 5th among 12 sectors with 9.2 percent of establishment jobs

9. Health Care +91

Health care jobs were up 91 thousand from January to 22.166 million in February. An increase of 91 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.93 percent. Jobs are up 1.064 million for the last 12 months. (note 6)  The health care long term 15 year growth rate has been +2.02 percent lately compared to +4.93 percent for this month’s jobs. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 14.0 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +58

Leisure and hospitality jobs were up 58 thousand from January to 16.882 million in February.  (note 7) An increase of 58 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.14 percent. Jobs are up 410 thousand for the last 12 months. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.7 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up to 7th from 4th in the pandemic decline.

11. Other +9

Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went up 9 thousand from January to 5.881 million in February. An increase of 9 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of 1.84 percent. Jobs are up 57 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +.56 percent growth for the last 15 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.7 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +38

Government service employment went up 38 thousand from January at 12.477 million jobs in February. An increase of 38 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.70 percent. Jobs are up 377 thousand for the last 12 months.  (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly with a 15 year growth rate of +.20 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 7.9 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

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Sector Notes__________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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Thursday, September 21, 2023

Freedom's Dominion - A Review

 Jefferson Cowie, Freedom’s Dominion: A Saga of White Resistance to Federal Power, (NY: Basic Books, 2022), 416 pages

Freedom means different things to different people, a matter Professor Cowie explores in his latest work of history. Our Constitution defines a government that wants us to obey the rules and accept the restrictions on freedom that democracy creates, but it does not define freedom. Freedom’s Dominion explores how some Americans have exploited the term freedom to justify their social and political views. 

Cowie’s introductory discussion applies freedom as it continues to be used and distorted in the American south to justify their racial views and their efforts to maintain an authoritarian social hierarchy. The introduction establishes the theme for the four episodes of southern history with the emphasis on how they played out in the town of Eufaula, Alabama. The first period follows five years after 1832 when the federal government signed the Treaty of Cusseta with the Creek Indians. The second period covers the years of reconstruction after the civil war while the third period covers the south after reconstruction ends, and the federal government withdrawals from the south. This third section continues into the 1950’s, but ends with the rise and career of George Wallace and the civil rights protests, the subject of section four.

Down in Alabama in 1832 southern whites would not accept the terms of the Treaty of Cusseta, which awarded the Creek Indians land in Alabama for a reservation. Southern whites invaded the reservation lands and settled them as their own. When the Federal Government attempted to fulfill their obligations and protect Indian land, southern whites decided an oppressive federal government denied them their freedom as they defined it.

In all four episodes southern whites declare states rights as justification for doing as they please and overrule federal government attempts to apply equal treatment before the law written into the U.S. Constitution. The white south came close to exterminating the Creek Indians, which the federal government resisted, but without matching southern violence with enough might to prevail. Instead, the remnants of the Creek nation were forcibly removed to Oklahoma territory.

The second episode covers reconstruction and the efforts of the federal government to protect the freed slaves from the determination of the white south to deny their rights and keep them as subordinate cheap labor. Again, the south claims freedom allows them to do as they please while the federal government has to resort to military occupation and be constantly ready to match southern violence in the name of constitutional government.  This second episode wears down the resistance of the north and sets the stage for the third episode and the failure of the federal government to protect the black community from 1877 until 1961. Chapters in this third section narrate the history of schemes to coerce and terrorize blacks into submission.

The schemes include arresting blacks on false claims to exploit them as prison labor. How to rig elections and destroy democracy is another chapter, followed by lynching blacks in the next chapter.  

On lynching, Cowie writes “Largely unexplored in the varying explanations of American lynching is something fundamental: the continuity of the underlying idea of freedom. Reframing the most heinous aspects of American violence as part of the most cherished set of principles in American life is neither obvious nor easy to accept.” Impossible to accept for most of us, but he reviews others who have puzzled over it and written books about it. In one, the author suggests lynching “arose precisely out of an ideology of the sense of what rights accrued to someone possessing democratic freedom.” Cowie reviews others writing on lynching: Ida B. Wells, Jacquelyn, Dowd Hall, and describes the tepid efforts of Presidents that worried too much about votes to take a principled stand.

Part III continues into the great depression and the New Deal that finds southern whites working in the textile mills for a pittance while blacks remain impoverished as tenant farmers. White supremacy reigns but only the white elite have political and economic power, which they use to assure political dominance and cheap labor. WWII finds racial discrimination in war productions jobs and a weak response by the Roosevelt administration to bring equal rights for blacks.

The book’s fourth part covers the rise of George Wallace as a resident of Eufaula, a state legislator, state judge, governor of Alabama and presidential candidate. Readers get a sense for Wallace from some of his aphorisms: “Moderation [is] political suicide,” [Voters]’d rather be against something than for something.” And “[A] certain amount of pain must be expected and tolerated; opponents must be dispatched without mercy; and fighters must be prepared to do whatever is necessary to win.”

Winning for Wallace meant appealing to the racial bigotry of southern whites, slightly disguised as freedom from “oppressive” federal government efforts to guarantee the civil and political rights in the U.S. Constitution. Cowie tracts the political career of George Wallace narrating his opposition to voting rights, civil rights, racial equality, integrated schools, and his campaigns platforms for the 1968 and 1972 presidential elections.

A twelve-page conclusion ends the book, where the last paragraph calls for a commitment for the federal government to defend civil and political rights at the local, state and federal levels. Good history has a theme to go with the narrative and Cowie does this extremely well in Freedom’s Dominion. He comes back to freedom as practiced in the south from 1832 to the present. Since neither blacks nor anyone else give up civil rights through deception, southern politics requires violence, or the threat of violence, for whites to sustain their prerogatives. All four eras define freedom that includes white violence used in defiance of a consistently timid federal government.

The book is well organized, reads easily and provides useable documentation to pursue selected topics. It connects directly to current Republicans that define freedom and patriotism as it suits their authoritarian aims. Those who believe in equality and freedom may react with incredulous disbelief at the southern notions of freedom, but unfortunately it qualifies as current events.

 

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

The Debt Ceiling Hoax

 

The Debt Ceiling Hoax

The Federal government has the sovereign power for the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank to control the money supply and so it can always pay its bills without borrowing from the public. Federal debt has no characteristics of what people think of as debt. For starters it will never be paid off and it would be extremely destructive to do so. The amount of this so-called debt is irrelevant except for managing the economy. It is the duty of the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank to have the right amount of money in the economy to generate the production and income that maintains full employment. Increasing the money supply to pay a federal budget deficit can generate inflation and so the government will borrow from the public to reduce their spending power to control spending and prevent inflation. The accumulated debt is nothing but the legacy of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve attempting to manage the economy. Since the federal government has the sovereign power to create money, a debt ceiling is a complete hoax. Total up the billions and billions of federal debt generated during the Bush and Trump administrations and you will understand their politics.

Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Wilmington's Lie - A Review

 

David Zucchino, Wilmington’s Lie: The Murderous Coup of 1898 and the Rise of White Supremacy, (NY: Grove Atlantic Press, 2020)

In Wilmington’s Lie readers get a historical account of race relations and the overthrow of Democracy by white supremacists in 1898 Wilmington, North Carolina. Zucchino has a brief prologue introducing the violent day of November 10, 1898 and a brief epilogue at the end of a 352 page narrative divided into three chronological parts. Part I has 62 pages in eight chapters that narrate Wilmington from the end of the Civil War to March 1898. Part II has 120 pages and 17 chapters that narrates the period from March 1898, until election day November 8, 1898. Part III has 163 pages in 12 chapters that returns to the post-election day of November 10, 1898, and onward into a narrative account of the violent aftermath of election day and the end of voting for black people in the south.

Part I gives a view of Wilmington life when former slaves had jobs and some freedom, liberty and civil rights as a legacy of reconstruction. Readers meet some of the white and black people that will be part of the narrative in Part II and III. These are especially Alfred Moore Waddell, known as Colonel Waddell, a white supremacist, Josephus Daniels, a white supremacist newspaper owner-publisher and later a cabinet member for President Woodrow Wilson, and Alexander Lightfoot Manly, a black journalist.

Part II moves along covering key events in the campaign to overthrow democracy and end black voting in Wilmington. Readers learn the depression of 1893 left rural whites so impoverished they voted with the freed slaves and progressive whites to elect Republican candidates and defeat the white Supremacist democratic party in some local and state offices like Wilmington. Blacks outnumber whites in Wilmington: 11,324 black, 8,731 white.

To the white supremacist’s black participation was “negro domination” that could not be tolerated. These Part II chapters gives dates and details of events in the campaign to suppress black voting in the months leading up to the November 8, 1898 election. It gives details of organizing white racist men into a para-military force of Red Shirts.

On August 18, 1898 multiple North Carolina newspapers published remarks of Rebecca Latimer Felton who demanded “The black fiend who lays unholy and lustful hands on a white woman in the state of Georgia shall surely die!” She wanted black man seen with a white women to be lynched. Alexander Manly published a reply to Felton in his newspaper the Daily Record. His reply included “Tell your men that it is no worse for a black man to be intimate with a white woman, than for a white man to be intimate with a colored woman.” Manly’s reply turned into an excuse to rally white supremacists.

On October 24, 1898 Colonel Waddell spoke at Thalian Hall in Wilmington, N.C. where he claimed whites endured “intolerable conditions” imposed on whites by the “ragged rabble of negroes.” . . .  “We are resolved to change them, if we have to choke the current of the Cape Fear with carcasses.” These two episodes illustrate a small part of the campaign of various white men and their varied plots to promote fear through speeches and newspaper stories that included false claims that blacks were planning a violent uprising with intention to kill whites.

Zucchino includes efforts by blacks and some white Republicans to contact President McKinley and North Carolina governor Daniel Russell to intervene, but to no avail. The white supremacy campaign succeeded. Few blacks were able to vote and the white supremacist Democrats were swept into office.

Part II ends with the November 8 election and Part III narrates the violent aftermath. Prevailing in the elections did not remove all blacks from elected office or appointed jobs, or put them in their place. Stealing the election without outside opposition only emboldened the white supremacists to further violence against blacks. Beginning November 10, a white mob of Red Shirts encouraged by Colonel Waddell burned the Manly newspaper offices. From that Red Shirts invaded black neighborhoods shooting and killing black men hopelessly outgunned. Zucchino takes three chapters and 39 pages narrating the day’s violence and slaughter of blacks.

After the killing stopped armed white supremacist groups patrolled the streets while people like Colonel Waddell removed the elected government, some white and some black, and targeted other blacks and whites to banish from Wilmington under threat of death. The Red Shirts roamed about and much of the terrified black community fled to the surrounding forests and swamps. Zucchino narrates the stories of these events and the narrow escape of Manly and others.

The white ministers and others celebrated the return of white supremacist rule. Five days after the killings Josephus Daniels staged a celebration attended by thousands he titled a “Victory, White Supremacy and Good Government Jubilee” at Raleigh. Visitors arrived on reduced fare trains greeted with flaming tar barrels and bonfires. Fireworks lit up darkening skies on a crisp autumn evening. “Every man had a torchlight which gleamed and blinked like the eye of some mighty cyclops,” Daniels newspaper reported.

Zucchino goes on to explain the timid and failed effort of President McKinley and his administration and Governor Daniel Russell to make any response to the killings and end of Democracy and to explain the long term method to end black voting for seventy years. The U.S. Constitution demands the federal government guarantee a Republican form of government in the states. Instead it would be Jim Crow, the poll tax and the literacy test where the white supremacists devised a crude method to have illiterate whites vote by allowing a literacy test exception for those who had parents or grandparents that voted before 1867.

Zucchino writes a thirty-three page epilogue that allows comparing the present attitudes and voter ID laws in the context of the past, and recounts events from a hundred anniversary observance in 1998. In 2000 the North Carolina legislature sponsored a state commission to investigate the cause and effect of the 1898 coup that is available on the Internet. The report concluded the coup was a documented conspiracy. There was also student protest in 2015 at the University of North Carolina objecting to buildings named after white supremacists. All of the principal figures are dead by 2020 but Zucchino ended the book reviewing some post-coup d'état history and interviewing some remaining family members, especially of Josephus Daniels and Alex Manly, in an apparent search for regret, but regret implies change of heart which never comes easily.

The Book Wilmington’s Lie starts with a good title. It happens often that people of influence with the opportunity to do the right thing, who then choose the wrong thing, want to cover it up with excuses and delete it from history as happened with Wilmington. It took a hundred years before an accounting and Wilmington’s Lie should be considered a thorough and orderly accounting of it, although not the only one, it is the latest one.

The book reads easily in well organized short chapters that maintain a readable narrative style. The writing avoids academic excess. Chapter titles often identify an event or subject in the chapter to come. Zucchino avoids moralizing and leaves the reader to judge the evidence, which he documents carefully. The book includes a lengthy bibliography.

As the story moves along I would say the narrative has embedded in it the chronology of steps needed for a coup d'état. A coup d'état requires one or a few completely unscrupulous authoritarian leaders-demagogues to unify a group by embellishing their grievances, perverting the facts, and encouraging their hatred toward a definable target. Targets are usually racial minorities although it could be elite’s, religious groups, immigrants and others. Democracy needs persuasion and a majority, but a coup d’etat needs the unifying power of hatred and it needs violence and assassination to generate fear in the majority. A coup d’etat brings minority rule where fear subdues the majority into passive acceptance. Just talking and speeches do not succeed in that the victims can not be easily deceived with the lies and misconduct going on around them. Patience will be necessary because it takes time to convince authoritarian followers they can murder their hated targets without consequence, and for the majority to convince themselves to do nothing about it. It is worth noting that Wilmington and the atrocities there preceded Adolf Hitler and deserve comparison to Trump. The book received recognition with a Pulitzer Prize, which it deserved, but even so it is a sobering account for a country claiming to be a democracy.

Sunday, July 24, 2022

Kill Switch - A Review

 

Adam Jentleson, Kill Switch: the Rise of the Modern Senate and the Crippling of American Democracy, (NY: Liveright Publishing Corp, 2021) 254 pages

In his new book, Kill Switch, Adam Jentleson writes a history of the filibuster as it evolved and continues to evolve for use by a Senate minority to stall and defeat a majority. Jentleson worked as a staff member for Senator Harry Reid from 2010 until Reid retired in 2017. The book has nine chapters between an introduction and conclusion. Part I, the Rise of the Filibuster, has four chapters with the history of filibustering from its early 19th century use until 1964. Part II, Tyranny of the Minority, has five chapters explaining the use and abuse of the filibuster between 1964 and the present.

The rules that govern Senate operation have varied over the years, but Jentleson documents the filibuster rules and how their use has damaged democracy and majority rule from one era to another.  The Part I chapters begin with a selection of quotations from the Federalist Papers to develop the arguments of James Madison, Alexander Hamilton and others from the 1787 Philadelphia convention. Their arguments supported majority rule by elected representatives; there was no filibuster in 1787. Readers learn how a “previous question” rule in the initial Senate rules worked to end debate and proceed to a vote.

Next we meet Senator John C. Calhoun and his idea that Senators are entitled to hold the floor for unlimited debate. Jentleson devotes more than twenty pages for discussing the 19th century Senate contest over majority rule between Senator Calhoun and his allies and Senator Daniel Webster, Henry Clay and their more numerous allies. Their inconclusive contest continued into the 20th Century when readers meet Rule 22 and its 1913 origins in the Wilson administration.

Rule 22 allows senators to call for a vote to end a filibuster; a vote they defined as “Cloture.” While the previous question rule wrapped up debate Rule 22 required a vote by a 2/3’s super majority to end debate. The committee that devised the rule called it a tool to “terminate successful filibustering” except that it turned into a powerful method for the south to block legislation intended to provide constitutional rights to the black community. Here Jentleson develops 1922, 1937, and 1940 efforts to pass an anti-lynching bill and 1942, 1944, and 1946 efforts to end the poll tax. All were defeated by southern filibusters.

We meet Senator Richard Russell of Georgia in these contests and his determination to use the filibuster to get his minority way over civil rights. Jentleson reviews the history of failed attempts by Senator Paul Douglas, Hubert Humphrey and others to get rid of Rule 22. Discussion shifts to Senator Lyndon Johnson of Texas and his successful efforts to cozy up to Russell. Johnson realizes he cannot be elected president as a southern racist and Jentleson takes his readers through the Johnson transformation to civil rights advocate. The Master of the Senate ended a southern filibuster for the first time ever and steered the 1964 Civil Rights Bill in law.

The Part II chapters explain what happens “when the filibuster was streamlined so that it could be used against any issue, by leaders wielding unprecedented top-down control.” After describing Senator Harry Reid’s successful 2013 scheme to end the filibuster for presidential nominations, which the press dubbed “going nuclear,” Jentleson identifies those in the super-minority that obstruct the Senate. They are WWAC – White, Wealthy, Anti-Choice, and Conservative. Discussion includes their connection to racial prejudice.

We meet the Tea Party of 2009 and some examples of their obstructionist tactics, which Jentleson argues resulted from using the polarizing innovations of Jesse Helms. Readers learn of Helms direct mail fundraising, filibustering methods and polarizing views. Discussion includes his help electing Ronald Reagan and his choice to attack abortion as a source of political power.

In Chapter 7, the Means of Control, Jentleson returns to Senate history with a brief narrative of Senate leadership through the years until getting to Lyndon Johnson’s innovations of the 1950’s and 1960’s. Johnson turned the Senate majority leader into a position with legislative power by doling out committee assignments, but there would be more changes after 1980.

Between 1980 and 2018 the Senate changed parties nine times, giving Republicans a chance to apply the Johnson methods for their own purposes. However, the “insecure majorities” turned the Senate into a continuous campaign of political attacks and aggressive fund raising. Harry Reid took over as Senate majority leader for the 110th Congress in 2007 and Jentleson narratives his strategies and methods in the Senate, described as the greatest consolidation of congressional power since Newt Gingrich ruled the House.”

Readers meet Mitch McConnell during this discussion - lawyer, former state judge, and Senator from Kentucky since 1985 – and learn of his flip-flopping views for and against campaign finance and the filibuster. After using the filibuster against Senator McCain’s campaign reform and losing he decided to support an end to the filibuster to prevent Democrats from blocking Republican judicial appointments. The Democrats, always playing defense, would not go along. Jentleson documents all the judges the Democrats opposed were confirmed anyway.

Harry Reid continued as Senate majority leader through the 113th Congress of 2015-2017. Jentleson narrates these years where Harry Reid struggles to get President Obama’s agenda and nominations through the Senate. These were the years of unprecedented Republican obstruction. The narrative has the details of the Harry Reid versus Mitch McConnell battle over health care, nominations including the Merrick Garland nomination and others.

These later chapters explain the new filibuster and how it empowered people like McConnell to block everything, anytime. After 1964 the filibuster lost its southern, civil rights identity after rules changes allowed the Senate to move to other business without ending a filibuster. More changes allow the Senate majority leader to set the floor schedule for the Senate by unanimous consent. The filibuster lost its name entirely as a single objector could have a bill taken off the schedule by placing “a Hold.” An email “hotline” allows any Senator to place a hold as an unaccountable and unpublicized secret.

In addition to the filibuster Jentleson fills in the obstructionist details of the Obama years. The details include McConnell’s efforts to unite the Republican establishment with the Tea Party extremists and his efforts to pacify Trump with everyone. McConnell succeeded by comes off as a competitor without a conscience. In conclusion there are a few suggestions to save the Senate. Getting rid of the filibuster heads the list, which could be done easily. He sees the filibusters as the prime cause of minority rule, although not the only one. The majority leader’s absolute power over the Senate schedule is another.

The book does a good job documenting the history and destructive effect of the filibuster. It reads easily and sources are cited in notes, allowing further reading. The political history of the Congress over the last thirty years proves the Democrats have failed miserably while defending the filibuster, a conclusion I had before reading this book. I benefited from previously reading Martin B Gold & Dimple Gupta’s 2005 piece cited in discussion: “The Constitutional Option to Change Senate Rules and Procedures: A Majoritarian Means to Overcome the Filibuster”. Even so there was lots of filibuster material new to me and I especially like having my conclusions confirmed with the documented account and evidence here.

The filibuster can only be defensive but a poor defense at that, even accepting defense as a good strategy, which I do not believe it is in 2022 if ever. The Democrats need to be deciding and defending what they think is right. While Jentleson worked for Senator Reid and clearly admires him, Reid’s nuclear option feels defensive and timid. Democrats need to move over to offense. Kill Switch will help convince you of that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Labor History and the Supreme Court Abortion Ruling

 

Labor History and the Supreme Court Abortion Ruling

I would like to suggest a connection between labor history and the recent Supreme Court decision concerning abortion rights; this being a labor blog. Labor history has a long record of vigilante violence and authoritarian misconduct going back into the 19th century. Throughout labor history mob violence directed at strikers and picketers seldom occurred as spontaneous response to the events of a strike. Corporate interests with the economic power to assert authority took repeated steps to organize and arm vigilante forces to break strikes, and their recruits recognized their recruiters had the political power to protect them from criminal prosecution. Corporate officials acted with confidence and impunity to assert the authoritarian power of a police state while avoiding any compromise that democracy might generate.

For at least fifty years abortion opponents have demanded, without a hint of compromise, that a fertilized egg at the time of conception will be the same thing as an eight or nine month fetus about to be born. Such a view can only prevail in a police state or a country like the United States with a paralyzed Senate, a “we do as we please” majority on a Supreme Court and a Republican Party determined to corrupt free elections.

It was true in 1973 as it is true in 2022 that the Constitution has nothing to say about abortion, but the Senate and the Congress, then as now, can be blocked and paralyzed by minority rule. The few who have bothered to read the Roe v. Wade opinion know that Justice Blackmun wrote a long historical discussion of the pros and cons of abortion before coming to a compromise ruling in between the extremes of fanatics. Justice Blackmun did what democracy should be able to do, and the Senate and the American Constitution cannot do: compromise. The U.S. Constitution is obsolete and desperately needs to be amended or replaced. The current episode should make clear it has defects capable of bringing down constitutional government, not just majority rule.

On January 6, 2021, Trump supplied the authority for his base to attack the capital and extensive video footage establishes they acted with confidence and impunity as a violent band of hooligans expecting to be protected by Trump as part of their devotion to his authoritarian ways. The Supreme Court intends and expects their rulings on guns and military assault weapons, such as the recent move against gun safety in New York, will be used by armed vigilantes as an aid to enforce their decision on abortion, and other decisions to come, the same as labor history records.

The Supreme Court majority in the 1857 Dred Scott decision expected to resolve the polarized politics of slavery, but all they did was debase themselves, the Court and push the country to a violent civil war. Now, another Court majority expects to end the abortion fight with an authoritarian political ruling. There is a difference though. Then Supreme Court Chief Justice Roger Taney discussed their upcoming ruling with President James Buchanan. They were both foolish enough to believe the Supreme Court had the prestige to resolve what political compromise could not do.  

Not now. Now they have eliminated the Roe v. Wage compromise of 1973 and made the political decision to encourage and promote civil warfare as leverage to get their way. In 2022, these police state justices know exactly what they’re doing, they just don’t care.

Saturday, May 7, 2022

Taxing Dividends or Not

Taxing Dividends or Not

Recall the George W Bush era 2003 tax cuts came with a ten year expiration date, a necessary concession to get the additional votes for passage by Congress. If the expiration date passed without a legislative renewal, then the Personal Income Tax reverted to what it was right before the Bush tax cuts. Negotiations for renewal and adjustments began as the 2013 deadline approached, which created a position of enormous advantage for President Obama. All he had to do was let the thing expire and keep talking if he could not get the changes he wanted. If he had done that, one especially disgusting feature of the Bush tax cuts would have expired with it. The especially disgusting feature favored income earned from corporate dividends with lower tax rates that did not, and still do not, apply to wage income, or social security income or pension income.

A dollar of personal income provides a dollar of spending power without regard to its source or label. Taxing dividends less than wages has no financial advantage funding government, but it cuts tax rates in favor of those with stock portfolios rather the jobs with wages. It makes the federal personal income tax less progressive, or regressive – tax rates fall as incomes rise - and means those with the same income will pay different taxes depending on how they earn their income rather than how much.

In 2003, the first year of the Bush Tax cuts, the tax rate on general dividend income was capped at 15 percent. A worksheet – Qualified Dividends and Capital Gains Tax Worksheet-Line 41 - was added to the Form 1040 instructions with an algorithm that separated dividend income from other taxable income. Taxable income without the dividends was taxed at rates starting at 10 percent and rising to 35 percent for taxable income over $311,950, while dividend income was taxed at 15 percent, or 20 percent lower than the 35 percent applied to the highest personal income. Since the median family income in 2003 was $43,318, the 20 percent rate reduction applied for those with taxable income over $311,950, which means a large savings for the highest incomes. Many years of annual tax savings reinvested in the stock market year by year might be a tidy little nest egg. However, there is no reason to speculate how much it might be. It is not difficult to generate dollar amounts from the tax rate schedules and stock market returns for the years 2003 to 2022.

Suppose a married couple both in the teaching profession in 2003 had a typical median salaries providing a joint taxable income of $110,000.  In the first year a married couple with jobs paying a joint taxable income from wages of $110,000 would pay a federal personal income tax of $21,120. If our married couple had $10,000 of their $110,000 income as dividends their tax bill would drop $1,000 to $20,120 because their marginal tax rate dropped from 25 percent to 15 percent. In 2003 that $1,000 would have purchased just over 39 shares of Microsoft Corporation stock at $25.08 a share, the price on April 1, 2004. On April 1, 2022 the 39 shares had a value of $12,024.09. (1)

Since the tax cut on dividends continues to the present, suppose tax savings on $10,000 of dividends as part of a taxable income of $110,000 continued to be $1,000 a year for 15 years until 2017. For the remaining years after the Trump tax cuts the 15 percent marginal rate dropped to 12 percent leaving the tax savings at $700 a year. If our hypothetical couple continued purchasing shares each April they would add to their 39 shares from 2003. By doing so until April 2022 they would own 497 shares of Microsoft stock worth $153,397.83.

Suppose a married couple both in a professional occupation like law, engineering or medicine where median salaries of $125,000 in 2003 provide a joint taxable income of $125,000. In the first tax cut year 2003 a married couple with a joint taxable income from wages of $250,000 would pay a federal personal income tax of $63,945.17. If $25,000 of the $220,000 was dividend income the personal income tax for 2003 drops by $4,500.00 to $59,445.17. The $25,000 of dividend income presumes a stock portfolio of $1,000,000 and a 2.5 percent yield on dividends would be reasonable for a professional couple of forty years of age. If, as above, our wealthier couple continues to reinvest tax savings on $25,000 of dividend income year by year until 2021 they would own 2,186 shares of Microsoft stock worth $674,084.00: funds they would not have from wage income alone.

In 2003, the 2002 tax rates were lowered for personal income above $46,700, but excluding dividend income. The $46,700 was a little above the median family income at that time. The top rate was lowered from 38.6 percent to 35 percent, where it stayed until 2013. The top rate was 39.6 percent from 2013 until 2017 when the Trump tax cuts cut it to 37 percent. These rates apply to those with high taxable incomes: $311,950 and higher in 2003 up to $628,300 and higher in 2021. It is for these incomes that the tax savings for dividend income over such a long period as 2003 to 2022 can become enormous.

Married couples with personal income ranging above $628,300 can be expected to have a stock portfolio in six or seven figures. Interest rates on savings, CD’s and bonds at historically lows and the steady rise in the Standard and Poors or Dow Jones industrial index, guarantees the well-to-do were putting lots of financial capital into stocks. Dividend income during these years provided a secure and steady return even without considering capital gains, also taxed at the same favorable rate as dividends.

Suppose we figure the tax savings from taxable income of $700,000 and $100,000 of dividend income by assuming a $4,000,000 portfolio at 2.5 percent dividend and ignores any capital gains. The savings in the first year are $20,000 but dips below $17,000 in the later years as marginal rates dropped in the Trump years. Again if we have our hypothetical couple continue purchasing shares with their annual tax savings each April until 2022 they would own 9,871 shares of Microsoft stock worth $3,043,486.45.

Suppose though we talk about the very rich and start them out in 2003 with $2,500,000 in taxable income and $1,500,000 in dividend income. If all the $2.5 million of taxable income paid tax at the same tax rates as wages the personal income tax would be $850,206.50, but with $1,500,000 as dividends the personal income tax drops to $550,206.50, a savings of $300,000 dollars given the tax rate for dividends drops from 35 percent to 15 percent. In 2003 that $300,000 would have purchased just over 11,961 shares of Microsoft Corporation stock at $25.08 a share, the price on April 1, 2004. On April 1, 2021 the 11,961 shares had a value of $3,687,695.91. Again if we have our hypothetical couple continue purchasing shares with their annual dividend tax savings each April until 2021 they would own 148,018 shares of Microsoft stock worth $45,635,408.08.

Dividend tax savings and the advancing inequality they create have brought to America a new term: the Teardown. Tear is a verb with synonyms cut, split, lacerate, rip, sever, cleave, rend, shred or pull apart. In the new United States, the Teardown has become a noun that defines a house about to be demolished and replaced in the same space with another house between four and eight times bigger. In Arlington, Virginia in the 1950’s and 1960’s the Broyhill family built thousands of 1,400 to 1,800 square foot one story rambler and two story colonial homes. They were brick and block three bedroom homes with basements that included necessary plumbing and electricity to finished off, which many families did. In 2003 these homes would sell in the $350,000 range and by 2020 many of them sell for $1,000,000, but they are fast disappearing.

Drive or walk through north Arlington and there will be treeless squares of plowed ground along streets in every neighborhood where the day before there stood a Broyhill rambler, Broyhill colonial or other 1950’s brick and block home. Wealthier neighborhoods have become construction zones with mostly Hispanic crews coming to build 7,500 to 10,000 square foot mansions.  They generally have boxy shapes where the zoning permits an average four-corner height of forty feet. They have finished space in basements and typically three finished above ground floors with six and seven bedroom, six, six and a half baths and two or three car garages. Yard space shrinks but these homes always include elaborate driveways, walkways and landscaping on what space remains.

Some of the builders find a Teardown house for a client and some build for speculation. The replacement mansions sell quickly with little in the way of bargaining and the new owners soon contract with landscaping and housekeeping services to keep houses, lawns and gardens in glorious perfection. Other crews arrive with ladders and lifts to install elaborate holiday lighting or equipment for party events. These “transition” neighborhoods feature a steady stream of UPS, FedEx, and Amazon delivery vans with drivers who scurry up the walkways balancing the days pile of boxes. Lots of cardboard fills recycling tubs.

Arlington County government makes it convenient to study this new trend by graciously putting building and demolition permits in a downloadable text file for importing into an Excel spreadsheet. The files have application and approval dates, project address, and a description of the project along with contractor information. For a file with permit application dates from June 2019 until June 2021 I found 465 records from a filter containing DEMO for demolition and SFD for single family dwelling. Demolition valuations given in the file were typically $10 to $15 thousand.

The buyers of Arlington mansions tend to be empty nest couples moving into their mansions after the kids are gone. No one will ask them if two people need a six or seven bedroom house, it’s impolite and probably embarrassing among the always appearance conscious well to do. No one dares to say these people have too much money, there is no such thing among the well-to-do of the 21st century.

In his 1946 autobiography national journalist and writer William Allen White wrote that the “decade which climaxed in 1912 was a time of tremendous change in our national life[.]  . . . “The people were questioning the way every rich man got his money.” . . . “Some way, into the hearts of the dominant middle class, of this country, had come a sense that their civilization needed recasting, that their government had fallen into the hands of self-seekers, that a new relation should be established between the haves and the have nots[.]” (2)

American politics no longer supports a constructive discussion of inequality and the well-to-do work to avoid and evade discussion of class, they prefer to advertise their class in silence from their mansions. William Allen White would have no trouble informing these new mansion dwellers they got rich and joined the upper class exploiting tax favors not usable by the working class. Mr. White would not regard their conspicuous consumption as a result of work in a meritocracy. No doubt some of them give a can of corn to the Thanksgiving food drive and donate to water conservation and the fair housing fund, but dividend tax breaks debase work and the people who work for a living. They ought to be smart enough to know the dangers of extreme inequality and take some responsibility for the country’s bitter and angry divisions and the peril it brings.

For the first ten years of Bush tax cuts the wealthy paid a rate of 15 percent on dividends instead of 35 percent at the highest marginal tax rate. While President Obama could have attacked the whole idea as an indefensible attack on working families, he did not. Instead he negotiated an increase of the marginal tax on dividends to 20 percent for 2013 taxable incomes over $450,000 while raising the highest tax bracket on taxable income from 35 to 39.6 percent. For my hypothetical couple with $2.5 million of taxable income and $1.5 million of dividend and capital gains, their tax savings dropped from $300,000 to $294,000. Apparently $6,000 of additional taxes on $2.5 million of taxable income passes for Democratic Party liberalism in 2013. 

(1) All dividend shares and values were, and can be, verified on spreadsheets

(2) William Allen White, The Autobiography of William Allen White,  (NY: The MacMillan & Co, 1946), p. 427-429