Thursday, December 31, 2015

Labor Line

January 2015___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released January 9, 2015.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 252,000 to 140,347,000
Total Private Jobs up 240,000 to 118,402,000
Total Government Employment up 12,000 to 21,945,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 183,000 to 249,027,000
Civilian Labor Force down 273,000 to 156,129,000
Employed up 111,000 to 147,442,000
Employed Men up 316,000 to 78,400,000
Employed Women down 205,000 to 69,042,000
Unemployed down 383,000 to 8,688,000
Not in the Labor Force up 456,000 to 92,898,000

Unemployment Rate down .2% to 5.6%, or 8,688/156,129
Labor Force Participation Rate down .2% to 62.7%, or 156,129/249,027

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was down 1.46 percent for 2013.

The January CPI report for the 12 months ending with December, shows the

CPI for All Items was up .8%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up 3.3%
CPI for Housing was up 2.5%
CPI for Apparel was down 2.0%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was down 6.2%
CPI for Medical Care was up 3.0%
CPI for Recreation was down .02%
CPI for Education was up 3.3%
CPI for Communication was down 2.0

This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report

SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL GOOD

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its January report of jobs in December.
The unemployed decreased by 383 thousand in December but with only a 111 thousand increase in those employed. Instead the unemployed left the labor force rather than taking jobs. The result was a decrease in the labor force by 273 thousand to 156.1 million and a 456 thousand increase of those not in the labor force. The decrease in the unemployed was relatively more important than the decrease in the labor force which caused a decrease in the unemployment rate by .2 percent to 5.6 percent. The decrease in the labor force decreased the labor force participation rate by .2 percent to 62.7 percent. The participation rate continues to fall; 62.7 is the lowest seasonally adjusted rate in decades.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment jobs was up 252 thousand for November. The increase was 173 thousand more private sector service jobs combined with an increase of 67 thousand goods production jobs and 12 thousand more government service jobs.

The goods production increase of 67 thousand included 48 thousand new jobs in construction, the biggest increase in a year. Natural resources added 2 thousand jobs, but manufacturing had a smaller increase than recent months with only 17 thousand new jobs. Durable goods had a combined increase of 13 thousand jobs with primary and fabricated metal products adding their usual number of jobs. Motor vehicle production jobs were up only 1.8 thousand, less than usual. Non-durable goods were up 4 thousand jobs mostly in food manufacturing.

For government service employment the federal government added a thousand seasonally adjusted jobs. State and local government excluding education was up at a .75 percent annual growth rate, well below the non-farm growth rate, but still higher than the five year growth rate for state and local jobs. For December state government, excluding education was up 4.3 thousand jobs; local government excluding education was up 2.1 thousand jobs

State education added 2.8 thousand jobs with the local public schools adding 2 thousand more. Private education had a better month than November with almost 5 thousand new jobs for December. New jobs in education continue to rise but at low rates of increase in recent months.

Professional and business services added 52 thousand new jobs. The annual growth rate settled back to 3.2 percent from last month when it was 5.31 percent, but still enough new jobs to take first place for private service sector job gains in December.

Professional and technical services had 37.5 thousand of the new jobs with architectural and engineering services, computer design and related services and management and technical consulting making significant gains as they did last month. The management of companies and enterprises sub sector added another 3.8 thousand new jobs. Accounting and bookkeeping services dropped back with job losses after last month’s increase.

Administrative and support service sub sectors added an additional 35.2 thousand jobs. Temporary help services had the biggest gain with 14.7 thousand new jobs. Building support services and services to buildings and dwelling both added jobs, for a combined increase of 6.2 thousand jobs.

Health care had an above average increase with 43.7 thousand jobs spread across ambulatory care with 16.2 thousand new jobs, hospital care with 7 thousand new jobs and nursing and residential care added 10.9 thousand jobs. This month’s health employment growth rate of 2.87 percent climbed above the long term trend growth rate of 2.45 percent.

Trade, transportation and utilities employment had a modest increase of 23 thousand new jobs for December, but with job gains in all four sub-sectors for the third month in a row. Wholesale and retail trade were both up with 17.7 thousand new jobs. Transportation had a modest net increase of 3.1 thousand new jobs. Only trucking did well among modal transportation adding 7.3 thousand new jobs. Air transportation was down, but somewhat weather related.

Leisure and hospitality service was up 36 thousand new jobs for December, slightly better than last month. Arts, entertainment and recreation declined 7.4 thousand jobs with job losses in all three sub-sectors, and especially the amusements, gambling and recreation sub sectors. Accommodation picked up 400 jobs while food services, mostly restaurants, made up for all the losses and then some with 43.6 thousand new jobs.

Information services were up 4 thousand jobs, a small increase but still good for information services. The motion picture and sound recording industry added 3.3 thousand jobs with only small changes in information services sub-sectors.

Financial activities added 10 thousand jobs, half of last month’s increase but still above normal monthly increases. The December gains came primarily in the insurance industry again, with 4.1 thousand new jobs. Real estate picked up 1.6 thousand jobs. Both information services and financial activities increased at rates below the national non-farm average.

Other services were up a net 2 thousand jobs. Repair and maintenance services held with no change, but personal services dropped 600 jobs; non-profit associations had a modest gain of 2.3 thousand new jobs for December. The December annual growth rate for non-profit associations is still only .94 percent, well below the national non-farm rate of growth.

The December increase in non-farm establishment employment of 252 thousand jobs settled back from last month’s big increase, but still suggests a steady upward trend. The December increase in construction employment was the only industry sector to exceed its November job increases. All other sectors except government had smaller increases. Manufacturing continues to lag. Still these were service sector increases at rates generally at or above long term trends. Overall, not as good as last month, but still a good month for jobs.

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December Details

Non Farm Total +252
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from November by 252 thousand jobs for a(n) December total of 140.347 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 252 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of 2.16%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning December 2013 was +2.15%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning December 2009 was +1.59%; from 15 years ago beginning December 1999 it was .47%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs

1. Natural Resources +2
Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining were up 2 thousand from November at 931 thousand jobs in December. An increase of 2 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.58 percent. Natural resource jobs are up 49 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990’s totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America’s job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .7 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +48
Construction jobs were up 48 thousand from November at 6.166 million jobs in December. An increase of 48 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +9.41 percent. Construction jobs are up 290 thousand for the last 12 months. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +1.75%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.4 percent of non farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +17
Manufacturing jobs were up 17 thousand from November at 12.239 million jobs in December. An increase of 17 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.67 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 186 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +1.75%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.7 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +23
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was up by 23 thousand jobs from November to 26.663 million jobs in December. These jobs tend to increase at a slower rate than the total of non-farm jobs, but an increase of 23 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.04 percent. Jobs are up by 507 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +1.73 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 19.0 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services +2
Information Services employment were up by 2 from November to 2.689 million jobs in December. An increase of 2 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.89 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are up by 15 thousand for the last 12 months. Monthly employment in information services gyrates month to month and has been doing so for over a decade. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 and continues below 2.7 million now. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +10
Financial Activities were up 10 thousand jobs from November to 8.022 million in December. An increase of 10 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.50 percent. Jobs are up 121 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been declining with negative annual growth rates, a 5 year growth rate of +.71 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of
+.21 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.7 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +52
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 52 thousand from November to 19.574 million in December. An increase of 52 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.20 percent. Jobs are up 732 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was 3.51 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 13.9 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private +10
Education jobs went up 10 thousand jobs from November at 13.663 million in December. These include public and private education. An increase of 10 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.85 percent. Jobs are up 115 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals 1.09 percent, faster than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 9.8 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +44
Health care jobs were up 44 thousand from November to 18.303 million in December. An increase of 44 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.87 percent. Jobs are up 427 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was above long term trends and greater than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +2.39 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.45 percent annual growth rate for 15 years, a rate not quite double the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 13.0 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +36
Leisure and hospitality jobs went up 36 thousand from November to 14.856 million in December. An increase of 36 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.91 percent. Jobs are up 421 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 2.79%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.6 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990’s to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other +2
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went up 2 thousand from November to 5.538 million jobs in December. An increase of 2 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.43 percent. Jobs are up 58 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +.81 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 4.0 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +7
Government service employment was up 7 thousand jobs from November to 11.704 million in December. An increase of 7 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.76 percent. Jobs are up 35 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of .25 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.4 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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Sunday, January 25, 2015

Jobs in Technical Writing

Standard Occupational Classification #27-3042 Technical Writers

SOC definition Technical Writers #27-3042 -- Write technical materials, such as equipment manuals, appendices, or operating and maintenance instruction manuals. Many assist in layout work. Examples of other common names are documentation writer, assembly instructions writer, specifications writer

Technical writing work is classified as a media and communications occupation with the largest share working in the professional and technical services industries, almost 36 percent of the jobs. Among the professional services computer systems design and related services has 18 percent of the jobs, but other professional services like architectural and engineering services, management and scientific and technical consulting services also employ a large number.

Another 16 percent are in various manufacturing industries that need owner’s manuals and repair manuals to go with manufactured products. Computer and electronic product manufacturing has 6 percent of these jobs alone with small percents scattered in many manufacturing industries.

The publishing industry employs a little over 8 percent with 5 percent working for software publishers. Government employs 3.4 percent; 2.5 percent in the federal government. The rest are scattered as small percents in many industries because finance, health care and so many industries need to explain technical material. A little over 9 percent are self employed.

National employment as technical writers was 47,300 in 2013. Jobs are down from 50,700 since 2000 in a modest decline. Annual average job decline was 262 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of -.53 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting job growth for technical writers of 280 per year through 2022 with a growth rate of 2.07 percent a year.

Job openings make a better measure of new hiring than job growth. Job openings are job growth and the number of net replacements. Net replacements are people who permanently leave an occupation for another occupation or retirement and must be replaced before there can be job growth. Job openings for technical writers are forecast to be 2,260 a year through 2022.

The recently updated BLS Education and Training Classification assignments lists BA degree skills as necessary for entry into jobs as technical writers. However, percentages from survey data are published for technical writing that show an educational distribution where 47 percent have a BA degree and another 26 percent have advanced degrees. Another 21 percent have some college, but no degree, or an associate’s degree. Some specialized knowledge or experience may be satisfactory in some industries, but less than 6 percent who work as technical writers have high school or less than high school training. Previous experience of 1 to 5 years is considered important, but short term on-the-job training is expected for new hires.

Relevant BA degree programs include Professional, Technical, Business and Scientific Writing, English Language and Literature, General and also Journalism degrees that teach writing as a career. For those interested in technical writing it is wise to find a college that offers the Technical Writing specialty in that only a few actually specialize in technical writing.

There were 685 Professional, Technical, Business and Scientific Writing BA degrees for the last full year of data reported by the Department of Education. In addition, there were 363 more advanced degrees. The ratio of relevant degrees to openings equals 0.464, or 1,048/2,260, assuring a shortage of highly trained and specialized candidates to fill job openings. There were also 43,260 BA degrees in English Language and Literature, General, and 12,249 BA degrees in journalism. Even though these degrees are not as specialized to technical writing, Professional, Technical, Business and Scientific Writing degree candidates should expect other qualified candidates in the applicant pool.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for technical writers is reported as $40,270 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $51,850. The median wage is $67,900, the 75th percentile wage equals $86,340 and the 90th percentile wage is $105,760.

The wages of technical writers have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $58,050 in 2013, the technical writers wage would need to be $67,079.11. In stead it was $67,900, a 1.22 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Death's Door

Steve Lehto, Death’s Door: The Truth Behind the Italian Hall Disaster and the Strike of 1913, (Detroit: Momentum Books, 1913) second edition, 397 pages

Steve Lehto first published Death’s Door in 2006. It includes a detailed account and review of evidence from a panic at a Christmas Eve party attended by children and parents of striking copper miners in Keweenaw, Michigan. The panic that took place on the second floor of Italian Hall in Calumet resulted in the death of 73, mostly children. The title Death’s Door derives from the pileup and suffocation of victims toward the bottom of the stairwell in front of the exit door. The book includes narrative history of the Keweenaw copper strike of 1913-14, which is necessary to understand the events at Italian Hall and the claims and charges in the aftermath.

The second edition published in 2013 added new material as the hundredth anniversary of the strike approached. It takes up old controversies that still remain and some new ones that recently surfaced in other books and accounts.

The discussion of the Christmas party comes as a brief version of events in the Introduction, then again in more detail in a chapter also titled Death’s Door, actually Chapter 7, although the book’s sixteen chapters are not numbered. The next chapter narrates several days after and the short chapter fifteen titled “What Actually Happened” provides further discussion and Lehto’s conclusions about the panic at Death’s Door.

The Western Federation of Miners strike in the copper mines of Keweenaw began July 22, 1913 and did not end until April 1914. Sketches of the local community, the mining companies and business groups, the union, and some biographical material of general managers, and other officials fill chapter 2. Chapter 3 narrates the strike from the beginning into mid August, a period that included picketing and parades, the governor mobilizing the National Guard, and the county sheriff deputizing hundreds of strike breakers and vigilantes. The rest of the events of the strike including Italian Hall are scattered in chapters four through ten.

Narrative in the first ten chapters takes several detours to examine specific events that occurred during the strike. For example, chapter four takes sixty pages to discuss the legal record in a brutal attack and shootings by private detectives and sheriffs deputies that occurred August 14 at a boardinghouse full of miners in Seeberville. Discussion of the Seeberville shootings and other violent events like the Italian Hall panic benefit from Lehto’s experience as a Michigan attorney. In each of several other episodes and the Italian Hall panic he reviews and evaluates the legal evidence with a microscope: arrest warrants, transcripts of testimony of preliminary examinations, coroner’s inquests, and trials.

After the hardships of nearly six months on strike miners planned a large Christmas Eve Party at Italian hall for union members and their families. After the party was well underway a man entered the hall, climbed the stairs and shouted “fire” into a room stuffed with 700 hundred people, which caused the panic and death already mentioned. Accounts of what happened varied dramatically depending on who told the story. Striking miners identified the man from a business group known as the Citizens Alliance; mining companies and the newspapers had other stories and supplied other explanations.

Chapter 8 has a thorough review of newspaper reports; chapter 9 covers the archival record of officials like the county sheriff, his deputies, the prosecutor and coroner; and chapter 10 reviews testimony at hearings of a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee sent to Keweenaw to investigate the strike and Italian Hall. Transcripts of official proceedings, especially the coroner’s inquest remain, which allows an evaluation of established legal procedures with the record of events that took place in 1913.

Lehto concludes the misconduct of mine owners with their cozy relationships with law enforcement officers and government officials made them co-conspirators and accomplices to crimes. He writes a strikebreaker named Edward Manley entered Italian hall, cried “fire” and ran out. While it is likely that Manley only wanted to create a disturbance and disrupt miner solidarity, his intentional actions killed 73 people.

Lehto’s views in the first edition published in 2006 got more controversial as the 100th anniversary approached and other accounts and views were discussed and published. More recent explanations have cast the mine owners in a more benevolent light suggesting what occurred at Italian Hall was a tragic accident the cause of which cannot be solved. The remaining six chapters address these controversies as individual topics.

Chapter 11, entitled Lingering Controversies, challenges five of the revisionist views such as the suggestion the exit doors opened inward and that was a cause of the tragedy. Italian Hall was torn down in 1984 and the State of Michigan authorized an historical marker at the site dedicated in November 1989, which allowed these revisionist views, but there are other points in contention reviewed in this chapter.

In the next chapter readers find out about a 2012 grant from the Michigan Humanities Council to Michigan Technological University in Keweenaw to create an exhibit on the strike entitled, Tumult and Tragedy. The authors of Tumult and Tragedy also published a revisionist book about the strike and the Italian Hall panic entitled, Community in Conflict. In the book they specifically attack Lehto’s work and so he devoted a chapter to review their book and reply to these attacks.

A few more short chapters reiterate conclusions to finish the book. The book reads as a mixture of historical narrative, legal analysis and journalism. The writing flows along easily, but the material does not always follow an obvious line of organization and so it sometimes feels jumbled. One aside, Lehto started over a hundred sentences with the word, interestingly, which got to be an amusing bit of surplusage. An insert of 36 pages of pictures and drawings of the floor plans of the Italian Hall adds a significant benefit to the book. It does not have numbered footnotes but a list of unnumbered footnotes at the end organized only by chapter heading, which makes it harder to find citations. There is no index, a serious shortcoming in my view.

The period of 1910 to early 1920’s is a period of vicious and violent attacks on organized labor throughout the United States and especially the Western Federation of Miners. WFM president Charles Moyer had a long career as a labor organizer in the western United States when he arrived to help in the Keweenaw strike. Out west he was frequently attacked, beaten, kidnapped and once acquitted in a long murder trial in Idaho that resulted from perjured testimony.

He arrived in Calumet at the time of the Christmas Eve party. After the Citizens Alliance decided to donate funds to families of victims of Italian Hall, the families and union President Moyer refused the money as inappropriate given events of the strike. Alliance members were enraged and the county sheriff and several Alliance members confronted Moyer at his hotel room. When he again refused their money they threatened him. The sheriff left but within minutes twenty men bashed down his door and physically attacked him. During the beating a hand gun went off and the bullet hit Moyer in the shoulder. Wounded and bleeding the gang dragged him to the train station and forcibly deported him to Chicago; no one was ever prosecuted.

The Moyer shooting and kidnapping and other shootings during the strike were committed by men paid by the mine owners. All of those killed were strikers. These known and admitted facts in the case along with Lehto’s careful examination of the written evidence refute the revisionist views. The Keweenaw copper strike was like strikes all over the country where organized labor and the working class struggled in divided communities to cope with the bitter opposition of business and their supporters among the well-to-do and middle class. Be assured Death’s Door is the definitive source for the Keweenaw copper strike of 1913.




Saturday, January 3, 2015

Michigan Jobs 2014-2015


Michigan reached a monthly average high of 4.68 million establishment jobs way back in 2000, followed by a long slide to a low of 3.86 million jobs in 2010, a decline of 813 thousand jobs over the decade. Job growth returned in 2011 until average monthly employment reached 4.11 million in 2013, an increase of 241 thousand jobs over the three year period. Jobs are up for the first 9 months of 2014, but at a slower pace of increase with only 12.9 thousand new jobs for the new year.

Michigan Governor Rick Snyder took office January 1, 2011 and after the 2014 election will continue until the end of 2018. His first three years in office included a significant improvement on jobs where 241 thousand new jobs equals an annual growth rate of 2.04 percent, higher than the national job growth rate and higher than the growth rate of forty-five of the fifty states and the District of Columbia. His re-election to a new term gives a good chance to make a mid-term assessment on jobs.

Manufacturing

Michigan lost 422.6 thousand manufacturing jobs from 2000 through 2010 about 52 percent of the statewide decline in jobs. From 2010 to 2013 manufacturing employment increased from 474 thousand to 555 thousand, an increase of 81 thousand, or a third of the statewide increase in establishment jobs. The Michigan increase in manufacturing jobs was higher than any other state, even the five states that have higher non-farm employment than Michigan. As of 2013 manufacturing has 13.5 percent of statewide establishment employment compared to the national average of 8.8 percent.

Share Reversals – From Decrease to Increase

Manufacturing was part of the job reversals from 2010 to 2013. However, all three of the goods production industries, natural resource, construction and manufacturing, reversed from decreasing between 2000 and 2010 to increasing from 2010 to 2013. Goods production declined by 8.24 percent of statewide jobs over the decade ending 2010, but increased by 1.33 percent in the three years ending 2013.

Professional and business services are another group of industries that reversed direction in 2010 from a declining share to an increasing share of Michigan jobs. The professional and technical services component of these services have jobs in law, accounting, architecture, engineering, computer design, management consulting, scientific research, advertising, and veterinary services. Professional jobs were up from 222.8 thousand in 2010 to 260.7 thousand in 2013, an increase of 37.3 thousand jobs. The new jobs were up enough to raise their share of Michigan jobs by .57 percent to 6.3 percent by 2013, reversing a small decline from 2000 to 2010.

The administrative and support services component of professional and business services includes office and facilities support services, employment services, travel agencies, security services, and services to buildings and grounds. Administrative and support jobs were up from 242 thousand in 2010 to 284 thousand in 2013, an increase of 42 thousand jobs. The increase was enough over the three years to raise their share of Michigan jobs by .65 percent to 6.9 percent.

Percentage Share Reversals – From Increase to Decrease

When some industries have higher percent others must have a lower percentage, which guarantees other industries lost jobs or did not have enough new jobs to maintain their share of Michigan jobs. Job growth in health care, government and education faltered after 2010 even though these industries helped sustain Michigan employment with more jobs from 2000 to 2010.

Health care employment was up from 9.6 percent in 2000 to 13.8 percent of statewide employment in 2010, an increase of 4.2 percent, but health care lost a .11 percent of Michigan jobs by 2013. Government service including education dropped 1.85 percent of statewide employment from 2010 to 2013. The decrease includes a .96 percent drop in jobs for the public schools and universities.

Private school education also declined from 1.9 percent of statewide employment to 1.8 percent from 2010 to 2013. Combined public and private education was up by 1.7 percent to 10.5 percent of statewide employment in 2010, but after 2010 jobs dropped from 406 thousand to 384 thousand with a loss of 1.1 percent of statewide employment.

The New Direction

The new direction shows up primarily with an expansion of goods production, especially manufacturing, and professional and business services in exchange for less government services, health care, and education. Combined goods production and business and professional services increased from 27.6 percent of statewide employment to 30.2 percent in just three years. The combination of government services, education, and health care decreased from 32.3 percent of statewide Michigan employment to 30.1 percent from 2010 to 2013.

Jobs usually figure in elections. If that is true in the 2014 Michigan election then 2010 to 2013 job growth undoubtedly translated into positive votes for Governor Snyder. Job growth justifies his claim that Michigan’s job outlook improved during his first term.

If new jobs are a goal for newly elected politicians the safest strategy is to work for new jobs in all sectors of the economy. The Michigan mix of new jobs has a political component because the governor has taken steps to increase jobs in the private sector as he pressed for a reduction in government services, which have decreased jobs in government and education.

Lagging Service Sectors and Productivity

The expanded use of computers and digital technologies raises productivity and slows the growth of jobs across service industry sectors that make up a large share of Michigan jobs. For example, wholesale and retail trade made up almost 16 percent of jobs in 2000, but barely 15 percent now.

Productivity has also slowed the growth of other service industries like newspapers, broadcasting, phone services, and in financial services like banking, lending, insurance and real estate as America slowly shift to a paperless economy. Combined these sectors continue to have 21.3 percent of statewide employment but their slow growth, and sometimes decline, makes them an unlikely source for significant increase in the future.

Other small sectors like repair and maintenance services, transportation, utilities, arts-entertainment-recreation including gambling, accommodations including casino hotels, personal services and non-profit associations have small shares with a combined 9.4 percent of statewide employment in 2013, down about .15 percent from 2010. Gambling employment dropped a few hundred jobs to 7 thousand statewide jobs.

Government and education including private schools have 16.4 percent of statewide employment as of 2013, off 39 thousand jobs in the last three years. These remain an unlikely source of new jobs in the current political climate.

Restaurants reached their highest statewide employment in 2006 with 352.3 thousand jobs, but with moderate ups and downs it is 350 thousand in 2013 with 7.5 percent of statewide employment. The job changes over the last decade do not suggest restaurants will be a major source of future jobs, but it has been adding about 7 thousand jobs a year recently and may continue.

Health Care and Professional and Business Services

The combined total of the above service sector jobs comes to 54.6 percent, which leaves 45.3 percent of the remaining sectors as the most likely source of new Michigan jobs. Remaining sectors include health care with 13.7 percent of Michigan establishment jobs, professional and business services with 14.7 percent and goods production with 16.9 percent.

Michigan needs 80 to 90 thousand new jobs a year to sustain the growth of the last three years. Major sectors like trade and information services continue to lose percentage share and now education and government services are down for political reasons, which makes it essential to have replacement jobs from other sectors. To keep the job mill going health care, professional and business services, and goods production needs to grow a little faster than the statewide average to increase their share of jobs.

Michigan health care employment increased between 8 and 9 thousand jobs a year from 2000 to 2013, but the rate of increase has fallen below the statewide growth rate for the last three years. The pace of new jobs needs to increase so that Michigan adds 12 to 13 thousand health care jobs a year, which will help make up for other slow growth sectors. Michigan health care employment has 13.7 percent of statewide employment compared to 13 percent in the national economy, but it will be difficult for Michigan to meet its job needs unless it continues at 13.7 percent or ticks up toward 14 percent.

Professional and business services employment, which recall has the combination of professional and technical services, managerial establishments, and business support services, reached a statewide high in 2000 with 641 thousand jobs. It declined to a low of 501 thousand by 2009. Jobs started to increase the year before Governor Snyder was elected but has continued to increase to the present. The monthly average in 2013 was 602 thousand jobs.

Michigan professional and business services jobs were up between 32 and 35 thousand a years in the four year period. Except for legal services growth rates in these industries exceeded the statewide growth rate, often at double and sometimes at triple the statewide rate. Michigan already has 14.7 percent of its statewide employment in these industries when the national average is 13.6 percent, making it unrealistic to expect the pace to continue, but Michigan needs 20 to 25 thousand of these new jobs to keep pace for continued growth around 2 percent a year.

Goods Production

Goods production also reached a high in 2000 with 1.12 million jobs, but declined to a low of 597.6 thousand in 2009. Jobs started to recover before Governor Snyder took office, but 93 of the 98 thousand new goods production jobs came after he was in office.

Natural resources and mining was up a thousand jobs and construction was up 4 thousand jobs over the three years. While up is better than down both sectors have small shares of Michigan jobs. In the national economy natural resources employment is .64 percent, but in the Michigan economy it is only .2 percent. Natural resources has not added more than a thousand jobs a year in natural resources going back to 1990.

Construction jobs increased by 11 thousand to 132 thousand in the three years since 2010. Michigan has construction employment equal to 3.2 percent of statewide employment compared to the national economy where it is 4.3 percent. Construction needs just 3 thousand new jobs a year to keep pace with the current statewide growth rate. A good economy should be able to increase it to 5 or 6 thousand a year.

Motor Vehicles

That leaves manufacturing, the most uncertain variable in Michigan jobs. The Michigan increase in manufacturing jobs came primarily in motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts manufacturing with 36 thousand of the 81 thousand manufacturing increase. Another 29 thousand of the manufacturing jobs were in auto related primary metals, fabricated metals, and machinery manufacturing. Combined these auto related industries make up 80 percent of the Michigan manufacturing increase.

In spite of the national decline in manufacturing after 2000 and the national decline of more than a 100 thousand jobs in automobile manufacturing in the same period, Michigan still has more motor vehicle manufacturing jobs than any other state. In 2012, it had 39.1 thousand jobs making complete vehicles or the chassis and frame, which was 23.4 percent of national employment in this industry; in 2013 it was up to 42.4 thousand jobs, which was up to 23.8 percent of complete vehicle, chassis and frame manufacturing. Second place Ohio had barely 20 thousand of these jobs.

Michigan ranks sixth in motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing with 6 thousand jobs, but this is the smallest segment of the industry.

Michgian is first in the biggest segment of the industry: motor vehicle parts manufacturing. Employment here was 109.7 thousand jobs in 2013, which was 21.6 percent of the national employment. Ohio was second again with 63.6 thousand jobs.

From 2012 to 2013 jobs in the three component motor vehicle industries added 42.8 thousand jobs in nationwide employment. Michigan had 10.9 thousand of the new jobs, or just over 25 percent of them. It was more than any other state. Since five states had a decrease in motor vehicle manufacturing employment, and 13 states had a decrease in auto parts manufacturing employment, Michigan is clearly making gains in competition with other states in motor vehicle manufacturing.

The benefits of job gains depend partly on wages. The Bureau of Labor Statistics now publishes wage distributions by state, by industry and by occupation. Production occupations make up 60 to 66 percent of jobs in motor vehicle manufacturing including assembly and parts manufacturing. The Michigan median wage for production workers in motor vehicle manufacturing was $22.92 in 2012 and was up to $23.69 in 2013. Wages were up as employment was up from 21,540 in 2012 to 31,450 in 2013.

For Michigan production workers in motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing in 2012 the median wage was $17.64 but was down to $15.27 in 2013. Employment here is low with only 2,640 jobs in 2012 and 2,680 in 2013.

For Michigan production workers in motor vehicle parts manufacturing in 2012 the median wage was $19.67 but was down to $17.09 in 2013. Wages were down as employment was up from 56,910 in 2012 to 61,290 in 2013. However, the wage bill (wage x employment) dropped for production workers who had less wage income to put into the Michigan economy.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data allows comparison between Michigan and other states. Production occupations for motor vehicle manufacturing in 2013 exceed 1,000 jobs in 10 states, but seven of those states report median wages higher than Michigan and two states with median wages below Michigan.

Production occupations for motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing exceed 1,000 jobs in 26 states, but nine states report median wages higher than Michigan and sixteen states have median wages below Michigan.

Production occupations for motor vehicle parts manufacturing exceed 1,000 jobs in 28 states, but three states report median wages higher than Michigan and 24 states have median wages below Michigan.

A Cautious Future

Michigan needs at least 80 thousand new jobs a year to meet statewide employment needs. The job shifts over the last three to four years make Michigan more dependent on selling exports to other states or countries and therefore more vulnerable to job losses in an economic downturn. Through the first 9 months of 2014 manufacturing is up 8.9 thousand jobs out of a statewide increase of 12.9 thousand. Motor vehicle and motor vehicle related manufacturing in fabricated metals and machinery manufacturing were up 9.1 thousand in the same period, which means other manufacturing industries have a net decline in jobs.

The narrow advance of jobs in the three industries motor vehicle manufacturing, professional services expect legal services, and employment services makes a future forecast hard to make. In the first 9 months of 2014 retail trade, financial services, education, health care, accommodations, repair and maintenance services, personal services, non-profit associations, and federal, state and local government all had small job losses. Michigan has a better outlook on jobs than it did in 2009 and 2010, but it needs a broader advance across more industries to be optimistic it will continue.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Jobs for Pharmacy

Standard Occupational Classification #29-1051 Pharmacist
Standard Occupational Classification #29-2052 Pharmacy Technician
Standard Occupational Classification #31-9095 Pharmacy Aide

SOC Definition #29-1051-Pharmacist---Dispense drugs prescribed by physicians and other health practitioners and provide information to patients about medications and their use. May advise physicians and other health practitioners on the selection, dosage, interactions, and side effects of medications. Examples of other names in common use are apothecary; druggist; industrial pharmacist

SOC Definition #29-2052-Pharmacy Technicians---Prepare medications under the direction of a pharmacist. May measure, mix, count out, label, and record amounts and dosages of medications.

SOC Definition #31-9095-Pharmacy Aides---Record drugs delivered to the pharmacy, store incoming merchandise, and inform the supervisor of stock needs. May operate cash register and accept prescriptions for filling. Examples of other names in common use are dispensary attendant; prescription clerk

Both pharmacists and pharmacy technicians are classified as health care occupations. Pharmacy aides are in health care support occupations. Pharmacists have two-thirds of their employment in retail trade, mostly at pharmacies and drug stores, but some also work in grocery stores and department stores. Another 25 percent work at hospitals and a few more at clinics and nursing homes. A small percent are scattered in industries unrelated to health care like education and employment services.

Pharmacy technicians and pharmacy aides can only work with pharmacists, but they are more closely connected to retail trade than pharmacists. Over 70 percent of pharmacy technicians and at least 85 percent of pharmacy aides work in retail with almost all the rest at hospitals. The difference suggests retail trade make more intensive use of their pharmacists while hospital pharmacists do more of their own support work.

National employment as pharmacists was 287,420 in 2013. Jobs are up from 212,660 since 2000 in a steady increase. Annual average job growth equals 5,751 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of 2.34 percent, higher than the average for all employment. National employment as pharmacy technicians was 362,690 in 2013. Jobs are up since 2000 when jobs were 190,940. The annual average job increase equals 13,212 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of 5.06 percent, more than double the national growth rate for jobs. National employment as pharmacy aides was 42,250 in 2013. Jobs are down since 2000 when jobs were 59,890. The annual average job decline equals 1,357 per year since 2000 at a growth rate of –2.65 percent.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting job growth for pharmacists at almost the same rate as the last 13 years at 12,330 per year through 2022. Because of anticipated turnover and retirements, openings, or growth plus replacement needs, are expected to be 29,640 a year. Forecast job growth for pharmacy technicians is 7,070 a year through 2022. Anticipated turnover and retirements are expected to create 10,590 openings a year. Forecast job growth for pharmacy aides is much smaller at 480 a year through 2022. Because of anticipated turnover and retirements, openings, or growth plus replacement needs, are expected to be 1,290 a year.

Pharmacists need a doctor of pharmacy degree from a program accredited by the Accreditation Council for Pharmacy education. There are 120 accredited programs and two programs on probation listed by the Accreditation Council. It was not always this way. Earlier pharmacy programs had specialty training at the BA degree level, but these programs have been phased out. Some of those working as pharmacists were trained under the old requirements, but new pharmacists must have the Pharm. D degree. Applicants should now expect seven years of study to finish the degree.

All pharmacists are required to pass state licensing exams before they can work as pharmacists. On-the-job training is not important in that pharmacists are expected to know the work before they can apply for a job or be a pharmacist. Work experience in a related occupation might help in some ways but is not necessary for entry.
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High school degree skills are adequate for pharmacy technicians and aides, although Bureau of Labor Statistics survey data indicate over half working as pharmacy technicians have some college or a college degree. Experience in a related occupation is not necessary, but qualified candidates need some short term on-the-job training working in a pharmacy to be considered fully qualified.

The National Center for Education Statistics reports degree data for America’s colleges and universities that can be compared with job growth and openings. There were 12,943 doctor of pharmacy degrees granted in June 2012, the last year of complete degree data. They were granted as 36 percent to men and 64 percent to women.

Degrees are up in 2012 from previous years at annual growth rates around five percent, much faster than the MD degree or dentistry. The ratio of relevant BA degree to openings equals .44, or 12,943/29,640, suggesting a likely shortage of qualified candidates to fill job openings.

The basic wage data from the BLS occupational employment survey includes a wage distribution. Averages are seldom used in wage data. A few high wages pull up the average and make it unrepresentative. Instead a distribution range of wages is published with the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentiles of wages. A 10th percentile wage means 10 percent working in this job have wages equal to or less than the 10th percentile wage and so on. Annual wages are converted to hourly wages by dividing annual wages by 2080

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacists is reported as $89,000 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $104,100. The median wage is $119,280, the 75th percentile wage equals $136,360 and the 90th percentile wage is $147,350.

The wages of Pharmacists have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $94,250 in 2013, the Pharmacist wage would need to be $109,221.70. In stead it was $119,280, a 9.21 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show an increase in real wages.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacy Technicians is reported as $20,040 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $24,440. The median wage is $29,650, the 75th percentile wage equals $36,270 and the 90th percentile wage is $43,230.

The wages of Pharmacy Technicians have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $25 630, in 2013, the pharmacy technician wage would need to be $29,616.50. Instead it was $29,650, a .11 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show increasing real wages.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Pharmacy Aides is reported as $17,160 in 2013. The 25th percentile wage equals $19,070. The median wage is $22,580, the 75th percentile wage equals $28,050 and the 90th percentile wage is $35,680.

The wages of Pharmacy Aides have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $19,440, in 2013, the Pharmacy Aides wage would need to be $22,463.70. Instead it was $22,580, a .52 percent increase in the real wage for those seven years. Other years also show increasing real wages.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Be a Millionaire

I was speaking with a financial advisor but not at his office. It was at a party where there was lots of informal chit-chat over a nip of the grape. One thing he said to me and some others standing close by was meant as humor, a joke. It was “People sometimes ask me, How did you accumulate your first million? I tell them my simple strategy. Don’t buy anything.”

It got a laugh and it was funny the way he told it, his voice and exaggeration. Then he went on to tell about a personal choice he made back in the 1980’s after finishing college. The car he had was a used Chevrolet with no cachet, but it ran well and was reliable. The fancier car he wanted to buy at the time he said was $9,100. Of course he didn’t have the money, but he recalled the deal he got to buy it was $2,000 down and a three year loan at 7 percent for the rest. He didn’t buy the car but decided to take advantage of pension rules that allow savings to go untaxed in the stock market for decades. He claimed his “not buy a car” investment was worth around $100,000 dollars now.

Not buying a car put him 10 percent of the way to retiring a millionaire, but there are other goods and services that are relatively easy to do without or to substitute something much cheaper. Regular or monthly service charges for cable TV, storage lockers, gym memberships, newspaper, magazine and Internet subscriptions, cleaning services, yard services, and life insurance come to mind quickly.

Decisions not to buy deluxe cars, electronics and appliances over the budget models, or replace them early for the newer models can generate thousands of dollars at retirement. Even essential services like phone, heating and air conditioning allow more saving opportunities to become a millionaire.

How much buying to avoid and things to cut back to reach a million dollars depends on time and interest rates as it does in all financial accumulations. Assuming work starts between the ages of 18 and 22 and continues to the Social Security retirement age makes it reasonable to use forty years of work life to save for retirement. The many stock index funds give a comparable measure of expected returns for a retirement account. The Standard and Poors 500 index earned a 7.2 percent return for the decade ending 2014 assuming dividends were reinvested. For the past twenty-five years the Standard and Poors Index had a 9.4 percent return.

Using an 8 percent return rate and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet functions computes to $284.56 a month of consumer goods and services not purchased will be a million dollars at retirement in 40 years. Lets start by eliminating new cars and then cable television, storage lockers, gym memberships, and newspaper, magazine or Internet subscriptions, all of which have cheap and available substitutes.

In today’s economy a $20,000 new car is common. Put $2,000 down and finance the rest on a 60 month self amortizing loan at 4 percent interest and monthly payments will be $331.50. If a new college graduate invested the $2,000 down payment for 40 years and invested the $331.40 each month for 5 years and then invested that five year total for the next 35 years, the total comes to $428,604.33, assuming the stock market return rates of the past continue in the future.

Few people want to acknowledge the place of a car in their personal finances. Today’s cars can and do go 200 thousand miles. Compare two people who keep a car for 10 years and drive it 10 thousand miles a year. Over forty years the one who buys and drives that car for the last 10 years and the last 100 thousand miles can expect to retire a millionaire on the invested savings.

Many people worry about the age of their car and forget that most of the wearing out and many of the costs of ownership - tires, brakes, oil changes - depend on mileage, not age. Worry that an old car will break down and strand you in the middle of no-where and therefore you need a new one, turns into an expensive worry.

Moving on I found a variety of cable television packages on the Internet that ranged from $44.24 a month up to premium services of $112.94. A typical 5 by 5 storage locker will go for $49 a month. Bigger 10 by 10 lockers go for up to $89 a month. Gym memberships vary but range up to $36 a month. I found magazine, newspaper and Internet subscriptions from $1.00 a month up to $2.95 a month.

Home ownership allows opportunities to choose do it yourself work that renters have to cover in their monthly rent. Still many homeowners hire home cleaning services and yard services. I found a typical home cleaning services at $90 for three hours of cleaning once a month. I found basic yard services at $49 a mow up to $85 for premium services.

For phone service I found phone and Internets services for $39 a month instead of unlimited nationwide talk and text cell charges at $59.95 a month, plus $30.00 more for a two gig data package. Many run over the data limits and add more charges. Phone bills now routinely run over a $100 a month for many.

There are people and families without enough discretionary income to buy any of these services. Those who have discretionary income could be millionaires with a little planning. Drop the $44.95 of cable television expense and use an aerial. Drop the $49 storage locker and store your own junk, or get rid of it. Drop the $36 a month gym membership and do your own exercise for free. Give up ten magazine, newspaper and Internet subscriptions and save $10 a month. Drop the maid service and save $90 a month. Get a $39 dollar a month phone and Internet package and save at least $60 on the fancy cell and data service packages. The total monthly savings is $289.95 a month, even without saving on a car.

Will you suffer doing without these services? I can’t answer that for you, but I am gonna be millionaire.

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Needless Markup

Needless Markup

I have a friend who calls Neiman Marcus, Needless Markup, although probably lots of people do that. She still shops there but complains about the prices. I couldn’t resist the opportunity to report a modest but pleasing savings I made just three days before on a pair of $175 Nunn-Bush shoes. I got them for $7.99 at a Goodwill thrift shop. Better yet they were absolutely 100 percent new; not a scratch, not a scuff, on the tops, on the soles, anywhere.

Finding a brand new pair of shoes at Goodwill is lucky, but there is more to it than luck. Savings at thrift stores comes with strategy and patience. Never shop at a thrift store if you need something right away. If it’s Friday afternoon and you have to get new and respectable shoes for your sister’s wedding, then it’s not the time to go to Goodwill or any thrift.

Savings at thrift stores is a long term thing requiring regular, but short visits. At Goodwill stores and Salvation Army stores, especially in big metropolitan areas, the good stuff turns over very fast. That is important because infrequent visits mean lots of good stuff will come and go and you’ll never see it.

Frequent visits make it easier to spot the good stuff. Plan to stay twenty minutes to a half an hour, but never longer. Have a departmental route: pants, shirts, shoes, furniture, electronics, sporting goods, books and so on. Don’t linger. If the bargain is there, you will see it. If you stay too long you’ll get depressed looking at worn out stuff and begin thinking thrift shops are hopeless when they are not.

Thrift shops are a special preserve for those who like a challenge, but they pay off, especially when you find something you might not buy otherwise. The above mentioned shoes are only one of many fun buys. Include new to nearly new Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfiger, Bill Blass and Brooks Brothers shirts, Jos. A Banks pants, 3 all leather belts, New & Lingwood sweaters, a Harris Tweed sports coat, all bought for a song. Take that Needless Markup.