Friday, October 6, 2023

Labor Line

March 2024___________________________________ 

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

 This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below

 The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released March 8, 2024. American Job Market The Chronicle 

 Current Job and Employment Data 

Jobs

Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 275,000 to 157,808,000

Total Private Jobs up 223,000 to 134,628,000

Total Government Employment up 52,000 to 23,180,000 Note 

Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 171,000 to 267,711,000

Civilian Labor Force up 150,000 to 167,426,000

Employed down 184,000 to 160,968,000

Employed Men down 41,000 to 84,993,000

Employed Women down 143,000 to 75,975,000

Unemployed up 334,00 to 6,458,000

Not in the Labor Force up 20,000 to 100,285,000

Unemployment Rate went up .2% to 3.9% or 6,458/167,426

Labor Force Participation Rate stayed the same at 62.5%, or 167,426/267.711

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 8.0 percent for 2022. 

The CPI report for February the 12 months ending with January shows the 

CPI for All Items was up 3.4% 

CPI for Food and Beverages was up 2.7% 

CPI for Housing was up 4.8% 

CPI for Apparel was up 1.0% 

CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 2.9% 

CPI for Medical Care was up .5% 

CPI for Recreation was up 2.7% 

CPI for Education was up 2.4% 

CPI for Communication was down 1.7% 

This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report

ANOTHER GOOD INCREASE

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its March report for jobs in February. The employed went down 184 thousand along with an increase of 334 thousand in the unemployed, combining to an increase of 150 thousand in the civilian labor force. The decrease of the employed combined with the increase in the unemployed combined to increase the unemployment rate by .2 percent to 3.9 percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 275 thousand for February. The increase was 204 thousand more jobs in the private service sector combined with a 19 thousand increase in jobs from goods production. The total of 223 thousand jobs gained in the private sector combined with a(n) increase of 52 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production had a net increase of 19 thousand jobs. Natural resources stayed at 640 thousand; construction was up a net 23 thousand jobs with heavy and civil engineering construction leading the way with 12.5 thousand new jobs; specialty trade contractors and construction of buildings added a combined total of 10.5 thousand jobs. Manufacturing jobs were down a net of 4 thousand with durable goods manufacturing jobs up 2 thousand but non-durable goods jobs down 6 thousand. Among durable goods, fabricated metal products added 4.4 thousand jobs; electrical equipment and appliances added another 2.5 thousand jobs combined with other small job losses. Nondurable goods did poorly with all but two subsectors losing jobs. Beverage, tobacco and leather products added 1.1 thousand jobs as the biggest gainer for nondurable employment.

Government service employment increased 52 thousand jobs, higher than last month. The federal government added 9 thousand jobs, state government 5 thousand; local government 38 thousand new jobs. State and local jobs excluding education increased 29.4 thousand with 25.5 thousand of the jobs in local government. State government jobs in education were up 1.8 thousand while local government education were up 12.2 thousand jobs. Education jobs in the private sector were down by 5.6 thousand jobs, which brings the education total to a net gain of 8.4 thousand jobs.

Health care took first place for private service sector job gains again this month with 91 thousand new jobs, a little less than last month. All four of the health care subsectors had more jobs as has been true in recent months. Ambulatory care added 28 thousand jobs; hospitals added 27.7 thousand jobs; nursing and residential care added 11.0 thousand new jobs. Social assistance services had 24.0 thousand new jobs with individual and family services adding 19.0 thousand of the social service jobs. The growth rate for health care this month, down slightly from last month, came to 4.93 percent, well above the average of 2.02 percent per month of the last 15 years.

Professional and business services added 9 thousand jobs, way down from last month. The professional and technical services subsector added 15.7 thousand more jobs, more than last month. Management of companies added another 3.3 thousand jobs offset with job losses in administrative and support services including waste management, down 10.2 thousand jobs.

Among professional and technical services architecture, engineering and related services added 6.4 thousand jobs; computing systems design and related services added a modest 4.2 thousand jobs; management, scientific and technical consulting services usually a big job gainer was off about a thousand jobs. Among administrative and support services, no subsector did well; temporary help service dropped 15.4 thousand jobs. Investigation and security services and services to buildings also had small job gains.

Trade, transportation and utilities had an increase of 40 thousand jobs, ending a trend of job losses. Wholesale trade had a small job loss offset with retail that had 18.7 thousand new jobs, mostly in department stores and warehouse clubs. Transportation jobs had 19.7 thousand new jobs with 17.3 thousand of them in courier and messenger services. Modal transportation had a net gain of 6.5 thousand jobs with air lines having 3.9 thousand of the jobs.

Leisure and hospitality had a net of 58 thousand more jobs. Arts, entertainment and recreation had a good month adding 13.3 thousand jobs and 8.5 thousand of those jobs in amusements, gambling and recreation. Accommodations and restaurants revived after last month’s poor showing with 44.6 thousand jobs, 41.6 thousand at restaurants. Leisure and hospitality now have 16.882 million jobs, that leaves it 33 thousand jobs less than its maximum employment which came in the pandemic month of February 2020.

Information services added 2 thousand jobs. Like last month it was the motion picture industry with 3.2 thousand jobs that dominated the job gains; there were some additional gains of 2.2 thousand jobs in the publishing industry mixed with other sub sector job losses. Financial Activities had a net gain of a thousand jobs again with jobs losses in the finance and insurance sub sector of 2.8 thousand jobs combined with modest job gains in real estate, rental and leasing services of 3.5 thousand jobs. Among finance and insurance, all the credit sub sectors, basically banks, lost jobs offset with an insurance gain of 4.2 thousand jobs. Real estate added 3.3 thousand jobs and rental and leasing added another .2 thousand. The category, other, had a net gain of 9.5 thousand jobs with personal and laundry services up 2.1 thousand jobs. Repair and maintenance added 1.7 thousand jobs while non-profit membership associations 5.7 thousand jobs.

The economy added 275 thousand jobs for February, continuing the monthly increases with a total establishment employment in February 2024 of 157.808 million and an annual growth rate of 2.09 percent. The health care sector continues to be the major contributor to job growth with 91 thousand new jobs that has contributed more than a million jobs since the pre-pandemic totals. Job growth in health care had 33 percent of this month’s job growth. This month’s job total is 2.553 million above February a year ago and 6.798 million jobs above February two years ago.

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February Details 

Non Farm Total +275

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from January by 275 thousand jobs for a(n) February total of 157.808 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 275 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of +2.09% The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning February 2023 was +1.64%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning February 2019 was +1.00%; from 15 years ago beginning February 2009 it was +1.13%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs 

1. Natural Resources +0

Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining had no change from January with 635 thousand jobs in February. A decrease of 0 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of 0.0 percent.  Natural resource jobs are up 7 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in 2000 averaged around 600 thousand with little prospect for growth.  This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .4 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +23

Construction jobs were up 23 thousand from January with 8.162 million jobs in February. An increase of 23 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.39 percent.  Construction jobs are up 263 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is 1.92%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 5.2 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing -4

Manufacturing jobs were down 4 thousand from January with 12.964 million jobs in February. A decrease of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.37 percent.  Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 12 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.21%; for the last 15 years by +.31%. Manufacturing ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.2 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +40

Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment were up 40 thousand jobs from January with 28.892 million jobs in February. An increase of 40 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of 1.66 percent. Jobs are up by 28 thousand for last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +.85 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.3 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services +2

Information Services jobs were up 2 thousand from January with 3.020 million jobs in February.  An increase of 2 thousand in jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.80 percent. (Note 2 below)  Jobs are down by 69 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 and has slowly come back to 3.0 million in the last decade. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +1

Financial Activities jobs were up 1 thousand from January at 9.233 million in February. An increase of 1 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of
+.13 percent. Jobs are up 133 thousand for the last 12 months.  (Note 3 below) This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +1.22 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +.99 percent. Financial activities rank 8th of 12 with 5.9 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business and Professional Services +9

Business and Professional Service jobs went up 9 thousand from January to 22.931 million in February. An increase of 9 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.47 percent. Jobs are up 52 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was +1.62 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was 2nd in 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.5 percent of establishment employment. 

8. Education including public and private +8

Education jobs went up 8 thousand jobs from January at 14.560 million in February. An increase of 8 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.69 percent. These include public and private education. Jobs are up 255 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.48 percent. Education ranks 5th among 12 sectors with 9.2 percent of establishment jobs

9. Health Care +91

Health care jobs were up 91 thousand from January to 22.166 million in February. An increase of 91 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.93 percent. Jobs are up 1.064 million for the last 12 months. (note 6)  The health care long term 15 year growth rate has been +2.02 percent lately compared to +4.93 percent for this month’s jobs. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 14.0 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +58

Leisure and hospitality jobs were up 58 thousand from January to 16.882 million in February.  (note 7) An increase of 58 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.14 percent. Jobs are up 410 thousand for the last 12 months. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.7 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up to 7th from 4th in the pandemic decline.

11. Other +9

Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went up 9 thousand from January to 5.881 million in February. An increase of 9 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of 1.84 percent. Jobs are up 57 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +.56 percent growth for the last 15 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.7 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +38

Government service employment went up 38 thousand from January at 12.477 million jobs in February. An increase of 38 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.70 percent. Jobs are up 377 thousand for the last 12 months.  (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly with a 15 year growth rate of +.20 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 7.9 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

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Sector Notes__________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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Thursday, September 21, 2023

Freedom's Dominion - A Review

 Jefferson Cowie, Freedom’s Dominion: A Saga of White Resistance to Federal Power, (NY: Basic Books, 2022), 416 pages

Freedom means different things to different people, a matter Professor Cowie explores in his latest work of history. Our Constitution defines a government that wants us to obey the rules and accept the restrictions on freedom that democracy creates, but it does not define freedom. Freedom’s Dominion explores how some Americans have exploited the term freedom to justify their social and political views. 

Cowie’s introductory discussion applies freedom as it continues to be used and distorted in the American south to justify their racial views and their efforts to maintain an authoritarian social hierarchy. The introduction establishes the theme for the four episodes of southern history with the emphasis on how they played out in the town of Eufaula, Alabama. The first period follows five years after 1832 when the federal government signed the Treaty of Cusseta with the Creek Indians. The second period covers the years of reconstruction after the civil war while the third period covers the south after reconstruction ends, and the federal government withdrawals from the south. This third section continues into the 1950’s, but ends with the rise and career of George Wallace and the civil rights protests, the subject of section four.

Down in Alabama in 1832 southern whites would not accept the terms of the Treaty of Cusseta, which awarded the Creek Indians land in Alabama for a reservation. Southern whites invaded the reservation lands and settled them as their own. When the Federal Government attempted to fulfill their obligations and protect Indian land, southern whites decided an oppressive federal government denied them their freedom as they defined it.

In all four episodes southern whites declare states rights as justification for doing as they please and overrule federal government attempts to apply equal treatment before the law written into the U.S. Constitution. The white south came close to exterminating the Creek Indians, which the federal government resisted, but without matching southern violence with enough might to prevail. Instead, the remnants of the Creek nation were forcibly removed to Oklahoma territory.

The second episode covers reconstruction and the efforts of the federal government to protect the freed slaves from the determination of the white south to deny their rights and keep them as subordinate cheap labor. Again, the south claims freedom allows them to do as they please while the federal government has to resort to military occupation and be constantly ready to match southern violence in the name of constitutional government.  This second episode wears down the resistance of the north and sets the stage for the third episode and the failure of the federal government to protect the black community from 1877 until 1961. Chapters in this third section narrate the history of schemes to coerce and terrorize blacks into submission.

The schemes include arresting blacks on false claims to exploit them as prison labor. How to rig elections and destroy democracy is another chapter, followed by lynching blacks in the next chapter.  

On lynching, Cowie writes “Largely unexplored in the varying explanations of American lynching is something fundamental: the continuity of the underlying idea of freedom. Reframing the most heinous aspects of American violence as part of the most cherished set of principles in American life is neither obvious nor easy to accept.” Impossible to accept for most of us, but he reviews others who have puzzled over it and written books about it. In one, the author suggests lynching “arose precisely out of an ideology of the sense of what rights accrued to someone possessing democratic freedom.” Cowie reviews others writing on lynching: Ida B. Wells, Jacquelyn, Dowd Hall, and describes the tepid efforts of Presidents that worried too much about votes to take a principled stand.

Part III continues into the great depression and the New Deal that finds southern whites working in the textile mills for a pittance while blacks remain impoverished as tenant farmers. White supremacy reigns but only the white elite have political and economic power, which they use to assure political dominance and cheap labor. WWII finds racial discrimination in war productions jobs and a weak response by the Roosevelt administration to bring equal rights for blacks.

The book’s fourth part covers the rise of George Wallace as a resident of Eufaula, a state legislator, state judge, governor of Alabama and presidential candidate. Readers get a sense for Wallace from some of his aphorisms: “Moderation [is] political suicide,” [Voters]’d rather be against something than for something.” And “[A] certain amount of pain must be expected and tolerated; opponents must be dispatched without mercy; and fighters must be prepared to do whatever is necessary to win.”

Winning for Wallace meant appealing to the racial bigotry of southern whites, slightly disguised as freedom from “oppressive” federal government efforts to guarantee the civil and political rights in the U.S. Constitution. Cowie tracts the political career of George Wallace narrating his opposition to voting rights, civil rights, racial equality, integrated schools, and his campaigns platforms for the 1968 and 1972 presidential elections.

A twelve-page conclusion ends the book, where the last paragraph calls for a commitment for the federal government to defend civil and political rights at the local, state and federal levels. Good history has a theme to go with the narrative and Cowie does this extremely well in Freedom’s Dominion. He comes back to freedom as practiced in the south from 1832 to the present. Since neither blacks nor anyone else give up civil rights through deception, southern politics requires violence, or the threat of violence, for whites to sustain their prerogatives. All four eras define freedom that includes white violence used in defiance of a consistently timid federal government.

The book is well organized, reads easily and provides useable documentation to pursue selected topics. It connects directly to current Republicans that define freedom and patriotism as it suits their authoritarian aims. Those who believe in equality and freedom may react with incredulous disbelief at the southern notions of freedom, but unfortunately it qualifies as current events.

 

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

The Debt Ceiling Hoax

 

The Debt Ceiling Hoax

The Federal government has the sovereign power for the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank to control the money supply and so it can always pay its bills without borrowing from the public. Federal debt has no characteristics of what people think of as debt. For starters it will never be paid off and it would be extremely destructive to do so. The amount of this so-called debt is irrelevant except for managing the economy. It is the duty of the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank to have the right amount of money in the economy to generate the production and income that maintains full employment. Increasing the money supply to pay a federal budget deficit can generate inflation and so the government will borrow from the public to reduce their spending power to control spending and prevent inflation. The accumulated debt is nothing but the legacy of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve attempting to manage the economy. Since the federal government has the sovereign power to create money, a debt ceiling is a complete hoax. Total up the billions and billions of federal debt generated during the Bush and Trump administrations and you will understand their politics.