Sunday, December 31, 2017

Labor Line

June 2017___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released June 2, 2017.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 138,000 to 146,135,000
Total Private Jobs up 147,000 to 123,831,000
Total Government Employment down 9,000 to 22,304,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 179,000 to 254,767,000
Civilian Labor Force down 429,000 to 159,784,000
Employed down 233,000 to 152,923,000
Employed Men down 129,000 to 81,290,000
Employed Women down 104,000 to 71,633,000
Unemployed down 195,000 to 6,861,000
Not in the Labor Force up 608,000 to 94,983,000

Unemployment Rate was down .1 % to 4.3% or 6,861/159,784
Labor Force Participation Rate was down .2% to 62.7%, or 159,784/254,767

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 1.26 percent for 2016.

The June CPI report for the 12 months ending with May, shows the

CPI for All Items was up 1.9%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up .9%
CPI for Housing was up 3.1%
CPI for Apparel was down .9%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 1.8%
CPI for Medical Care was up 2.6%
CPI for Recreation was up .9%
CPI for Education was up 2.3%
CPI for Communication was down 6.3%

This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report

NOT ENOUGH

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its June report for jobs in May. The labor force took a sharp drop for May, off 429 thousand as both employed and the unemployed left work or quit looking for a job. Those not in the labor force jumped 608 thousand, a number that should go down if there is healthy growth in employment. The decrease in the unemployed of 195 thousand dominated the decrease in the labor force, which caused a small decrease in the unemployment rate of .1 percent to 4.3 percent. The labor force participation rate dropped .2 percent to 62.7 percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 138 thousand for May. The increase was a total of 131 thousand more private service sector jobs and 16 thousand more jobs in goods production employment. The 147 thousand private sector jobs total combined with a decrease of 9 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production had a modest increase of 16 thousand jobs for May. Natural resources added 6 thousand jobs because of 7.9 thousand new jobs in support activities in mining offset small job losses in mining and natural gas. Construction jobs improved a seasonally adjusted 11 thousand for May, another modest month. Heavy and engineering construction employment had most of the new jobs: 7.2 thousand. Construction of buildings added 5.5 thousand among other small job losses. Manufacturing dropped a thousand jobs, after last month’s modest gains. There were 2 thousand new jobs in durable manufacturing offsetting a loss of 3 thousand non-durable goods. Automobile production was off slightly.

Government service employment lost 9 thousand jobs, even though the federal government picked up 8.2 thousand jobs; most of the increase came at the Post Office, up a seasonally adjusted 7 thousand jobs. Both state and local government lost jobs, down a combined 15 thousand. Both state and local public education also lost jobs, which accounted for 10.4 thousand of the jobs lost in government. Private education was up 14.7 thousand jobs, which combined with the decrease in public education left a net of 4.3 thousand new education jobs.

Professional and business services had the biggest increase in service employment for May, adding 38 thousand new jobs. The professional and technical service sub sector picked up 10.9 thousand jobs of the total increase, management of companies added 1.7 thousand jobs with administration and support services including waste management adding a net of 25.2 thousand jobs.

Among professional and technical services only management and technical consulting did well with 6.4 thousand new jobs. The category, Other Professional Services, added 4.8 thousand jobs, which is predominantly veterinary services. Computer systems design and related services actually lost a few hundred jobs for May, a rare occurrence. Among administrative and support services, Employment services, mostly temporary help services, added 14.2 thousand jobs with services to buildings and dwellings in second place with 6.4 thousand new jobs among other small gains and losses.

Health Care added 32 thousand jobs and again this month with gains in all four major sub-sectors. Ambulatory care added 12.6 thousand new jobs; hospital employment added 7.4 thousand jobs. Nursing and residential care employment jobs were up 4.3 thousand, but mostly at residential care rather than nursing care. The social assistance sub sector did well with 8 thousand new jobs after last month’s even bigger increase. The May growth rate in health care employment was 2.0 percent, below the fifteen year trend of 2.36 percent.

Leisure and hospitality added 31 thousand new jobs, a modest gain and less than last month. Arts, entertainment and recreation declined 2.2 thousand new jobs for May, with amusements, gambling and recreation off 5 thousand jobs. Food services and restaurants added 30.3 thousand jobs and accommodations added another 2.7 thousand jobs. The restaurant increase is more typical, while accommodation employment does not typically increase month to month.

Trade, Transportation and Utilities did poorly dropping 6 thousand jobs, a major sector that has not done well over the last six months. Both wholesale and retail lost jobs last month: wholesale down 2.1, retail down 6.1 thousand. There was a little help from transportation with a net gain of only 3.6 thousand jobs, mostly in transit jobs and other ground transportation. Utilities picked lost 1.3 thousand jobs, a sub sector in general job decline.

Information services dropped another 2 thousand jobs, with small losses for jobs in motion picture and sound recording, in broadcasting except Internet, and in telecommunications. Financial activities had another good month, although not as good as last month, adding 11 thousand new jobs. Credit intermediation and banking had the most new jobs: 4.7 thousand. Real estate and rental leasing added 4.4 thousand new jobs for May.

The category, other services, added 12 thousand jobs, even better than last month, with gains for all three sub sectors,. Non-profit organizations had most of the jobs from the three sub sectors with 7.4 thousand new jobs. Personal and laundry services added 4.0 thousand jobs, a larger than average increase; repair and maintenance services added 800 jobs.

The establishment employment was up 138 thousand at an annual growth rate of 1.13 percent, a return to slow and sluggish job growth for May. The long term growth rate of establishment employment has stayed low year after year. It is only .75 percent, well below population growth. There is no sign of improvement in the manufacturing sector. This month continues the slow transformation of education employment. In 1990 private education employment was 18.1 percent of total education employment – private and public – but in 2016 private education employment was up to 25.6 percent.

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May Details

Non Farm Total +138
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from April by 138 thousand jobs for a(n) May total of 146.135 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 138 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of 1.13%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning May 2016 was +1.58%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning May 2012 was +1.76%; from 15 years ago beginning May 2002 it was .75%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs

1. Natural Resources +6
Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining were up 6 thousand from April at 706 thousand jobs in May. An increase of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +10.29 percent. Natural resource jobs are up 32 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990’s totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America’s job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .5 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +11
Construction jobs were up 11 thousand from April with 6.881 million jobs in May. An increase of 11 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.92 percent. Construction jobs are up 191 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +4.18%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.6 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing -1
Manufacturing jobs were down 1 thousand from April with 12.398 million jobs in May. A decrease of 1 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.10 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 63 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.77%; for the last 15 years by
-1.41%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.5 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility -6
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was down 6 thousand from April at 27,346 million jobs in May. A decrease of 6 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.26 percent. Jobs are up by 159 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +1.44 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.9 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -2
Information Services employment were down 2 thousand from April at 2.723 million jobs in May. A decrease of 2 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.88 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are down by 16 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004, but now creeps up to the 2.75 million range. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +11
Financial Activities jobs were up 11 thousand from April at 8.428 million in May. An increase of 11 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of + 1.57 percent. Jobs are up 165 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been growing slowly with many months of negative growth. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +1.61 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +.41 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +38
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 38 thousand from April to 20.644 million in May. An increase of 38 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.21 percent. Jobs are up 622 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was 2.94 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.1 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private +8
Education jobs went up 8 thousand jobs from April at 14.018 million in May. These include public and private education. An increase of 8 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.64 percent. Jobs are up 143 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.75 percent, slower than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 9.6 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +32
Health care jobs were up 32 thousand from April to 19.424 million in May. An increase of 32 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.0 percent. Jobs are up 437 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was below long term trends and less than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +2.30 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.36 percent annual rate for the last 15 years, a rate greater than the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 13.3 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +31
Leisure and hospitality jobs went up 31 thousand from April to 15.892 million in May. An increase of 31 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.35 percent. Jobs are up 331 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 3.01%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.8 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990’s to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other +12
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went up 12 thousand from April to 5.744 million jobs in May. An increase of 12 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.51 percent. Jobs are up 77 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +1.18 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.9 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education -2
Government service employment was down 2 thousand from April to 11.930 million jobs in May. A decrease of 2 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.24 percent. Jobs are up 61 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of +.17 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.2 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.


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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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