Sunday, December 31, 2017

Labor Line

August 2017___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America's job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released August 4, 2017.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 209,000 to 146,615,000
Total Private Jobs up 205,000 to 124,257,000
Total Government Employment up 4,000 to 22,358,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 194,000 to 255,151,000
Civilian Labor Force up 349,000 to 160,494,000
Employed up 345,000 to 153,513,000
Employed Men down 17,000 to 81,273,000
Employed Women up 362,000 to 72,240
Unemployed up 4,000 to 6,981,000
Not in the Labor Force down 153,000 to 94,657,000

Unemployment Rate was down .1 % to 4.3% or 6,981/160,494
Labor Force Participation Rate was up .1% to 62.9%, or 160,494/255,151

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 1.26 percent for 2016.

The July CPI report for the 12 months ending with June, shows the

CPI for All Items was up 1.6%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up .9%
CPI for Housing was up 3.0%
CPI for Apparel was down .7%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up .5%
CPI for Medical Care was up 2.6%
CPI for Recreation was up .8%
CPI for Education was up 2.3%
CPI for Communication was down 6.4%

This Month's Establishment Jobs Press Report

CHUGGIN' ALONG

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its August report for jobs in July. The labor force was up again with an increase of 349 thousand in a combination of 345 thousand more employed, while the unemployed increased by only 4 thousand. The increase in the labor force included the monthly population growth and 156 thousand people who entered or re-entered the labor force. The increase in the unemployed was so small and the newly employed so large the unemployment rate dropped .1 percent to 4.3 percent. The labor force participation rate had a second month with a .1 percent gain to be 62.9 percent for July, still a low percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 209 thousand for July. The increase was a total of 183 thousand more private service sector jobs and 22 thousand more jobs in goods production. The 205 thousand private sector jobs total combined with an increase of 4 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production had an increase of 22 thousand jobs for July. Natural resources jobs remained unchanged while construction jobs improved modestly with 6 thousand new jobs in July. Manufacturing did better than usual with 16 thousand more jobs, which was 13 thousand new durable goods jobs combined with 3 thousand more non-durable goods jobs. The biggest gains came again in fabricated metal products and machinery. Motor vehicles and parts were up 1.6 thousand jobs.

Government service employment added a net of 4 thousand seasonally adjusted jobs. Local government had 7 thousand new jobs offset by a 3 thousand loss in state government employment. The federal government had a net of zero, even though the postal service had a modest gain in jobs. Local government jobs included a modest five hundred more jobs in public education. These gains offset a decline of about thousand jobs in state education employment. Private education was up a seasonally adjusted 9.8 thousand jobs, which combined with public education left a net of gain of 9.5 thousand public and private education jobs.

Leisure and hospitality had the biggest increase in service employment for July, adding 62 thousand jobs, an unusually large increase. Arts, entertainment and recreation had 8.3 thousand of the new jobs with 5.9 thousand of those jobs in amusements, gambling and recreation. Accommodations added only 300 hundred jobs while food services and restaurants added 53.1 thousand jobs, also an unusually large increase.

Professional and business services had 49 thousand new jobs for July, a sector with a steadily rising share of nationwide employment now at 14.2 percent. The professional and technical service sub sector picked up 17.9 thousand jobs of the total increase, management of companies adding another 1.4 thousand jobs with administration and support services including waste management adding a net of another 30 thousand jobs.

Among professional and technical services management and technical consulting did the best, but with a modest gain of only 7.0 thousand new jobs. Computer design and related services had a second month with 4.9 thousand new jobs. The legal services industry continues to struggle with a loss of 4.3 thousand jobs in July. Among administrative and support services, employment services did the best with 15.5 thousand new jobs while business support services, investigation and security services and services to buildings all had moderate job gains.

Health Care added 45 thousand jobs, much less than last month but still a good gain. Ambulatory care added 30 thousand jobs; hospital employment added another 7.3 thousand jobs. Nursing and residential care and the social assistance sub sector had a moderate increase of jobs. The July growth rate in health care employment was 2.77 percent, less than last month but still above the fifteen year trend of 2.36 percent. Health care contributed 430 thousand jobs to the U.S. economy over the last twelve months.

Trade, Transportation and Utilities had only 7 thousand new jobs, a tiny number for a sector with 18.7 percent of nationwide jobs. Wholesale added 6.1 thousand jobs while retail added just under a thousand jobs. There was a little help from transportation also with a net gain under a thousand jobs. Couriers and messengers added 3.2 thousand jobs that offset other small losses in modal transportation. Utilities dropped a few hundred jobs.

Information services added 4 thousand jobs, reversing last month's losses. Motion picture and sound recording picked up 2.1 thousand jobs, but otherwise there was little change among small losses. Financial activities added a net of 6 thousand jobs that included 8.3 thousand new jobs in finance and insurance that offset a 2.3 thousand decline of jobs in real estate and rental leasing. The category, other services, added a thousand jobs, way down from last month. More jobs in personal and laundry services and repair and maintenance services offset a 3 thousand decline in jobs at non-profit organizations.

Establishment employment was up 209 thousand in July at an annual growth rate of 1.77 percent. The long term growth rate of establishment employment stays below 2 percent year after year, but 1.77 percent can be thought of as decent, or chuggin' along. This month the leisure and hospitality industry had a job increase equal to an annual growth rate of 4.67 percent. The business and professional service industry had 2.84 percent and health care 2.77 percent. Over the last several years no other sub sector has been able to generate new jobs at even a 1 percent growth rate. These three sectors are what carry the burden of creating new jobs. Restaurant jobs dominate the hospitality industry. Trump might adopt the slogan: "Save the economy, eat at restaurants."

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July Details

Non Farm Total +209
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from June by 209 thousand jobs for a(n) July total of 146.615 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 209 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of 1.71%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning July 2016 was +1.49%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning July 2012 was +1.79%; from 15 years ago beginning July 2002 it was .77%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000's of jobs

1. Natural Resources +0
Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining stayed the same from June at 712 thousand jobs in July. No increase in jobs for the next 12 months would be a growth rate of zero. Natural resource jobs are up 48 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990's totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America's job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .5 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +6
Construction jobs were up 6 thousand from June with 6.899 million jobs in July. An increase of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.04 percent. Construction jobs are up 191 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +4.14%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.7 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +16
Manufacturing jobs were up 16 thousand from June with 12.425 million jobs in July. An increase of 16 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.55 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 66 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.75%; for the last 15 years by
-1.36%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.5 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +7
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was up 7 thousand from June at 27,388 million jobs in July. An increase of 7 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.31 percent. Jobs are up by 143 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +1.48 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.7 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services +4
Information Services employment were up 4 thousand from June at 2.730 million jobs in July. An increase of 4 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.76 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are down by 48 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004, but now creeps up to the 2.75 million range. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +6
Financial Activities jobs were up 6 thousand from June at 8.449 million in July. An increase of 6 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of + .85 percent. Jobs are up 148 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been growing slowly with many months of negative growth. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +1.66 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +.41 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +49
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 49 thousand from June to 20.745 million in July. An increase of 49 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.84 percent. Jobs are up 580 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was 2.92 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.2 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private +10
Education jobs went up 10 thousand jobs from June at 14.032 million in July. These include public and private education. An increase of 10 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.81 percent. Jobs are up 124 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.70 percent, slower than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 9.6 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +45
Health care jobs were up 45 thousand from June to 19.525 million in July. An increase of 45 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.77 percent. Jobs are up 430 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was above long term trends and more than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +2.25 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.36 percent annual rate for the last 15 years, a rate greater than the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 13.3 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +62
Leisure and hospitality jobs went up 62 thousand from June to 15.998 million in July. An increase of 62 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.67 percent. Jobs are up 346 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 3.09%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.9 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990's to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other +1
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went up 1 thousand from June to 5.761 million jobs in July. An increase of 1 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.21 percent. Jobs are up 76 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +1.18 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.9 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +5
Government service employment was up 5 thousand from June to 11.953 million jobs in July. An increase of 5 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.49 percent. Jobs are up 55 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of +.20 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.2 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.


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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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