Sunday, December 31, 2017

Labor Line

October 2017___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America's job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released October 6, 2017.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs down 33,000 to 146,659,000
Total Private Jobs down 40,000 to 124,322,000
Total Government Employment up 7,000 to 22,337,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 206,000 to 256,562,000
Civilian Labor Force up 575,000 to 161,146,000
Employed up 906,000 to 154,345,000
Employed Men up 573,000 to 81,883000
Employed Women up 332,000 to 72,461
Unemployed down 331,000 to 6,801,000
Not in the Labor Force down 368,000 to 94,417,000

Unemployment Rate was down .2 % to 4.2% or 9/161,146
Labor Force Participation Rate was up .2% at 63.1%, or 161,146/256,562

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 1.26 percent for 2016.

The August CPI report for the 12 months ending with July, shows the

CPI for All Items was up 1.7%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up 1.1%
CPI for Housing was up 2.8%
CPI for Apparel was down .4%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 1.2%
CPI for Medical Care was up 2.5%
CPI for Recreation was up 1.3%
CPI for Education was up 2.3%
CPI for Communication was down 6.3%

This Month's Establishment Jobs Press Report

SORTING OUT A HURRICANE EFFECT

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its October report for jobs in September. A very large increase in the labor force resulted from the usual population growth and 368 thousand other adults who entered the labor force. That combined with a 331 thousand decrease in the unemployed generated a 906 thousand increase in the employed. The increase in the employed and decrease in the unemployed worked together to lower the unemployment rate by .2 percent to 4.2 percent. The labor force participation rate also increase by .2 percent to 63.1 percent for September.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was down 33 thousand for September. The decrease was a loss of 49 thousand jobs in the private service sector combined with a 9 thousand increase in jobs from goods production. This 40 thousand private sector job loss combined with an increase of 7 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total decrease.

Natural resources and construction had modest job gains among the goods production sub sectors for September; manufacturing lost a thousand jobs distributed between 4 thousand new durable goods jobs and a loss of 5 thousand non-durable goods jobs. Among durable goods motor vehicles and parts manufacturing lost 3.2 thousand jobs combined with other small gains. Among non-durable goods paper and printing lost 4.2 thousand jobs to lead the loss of non durable goods.

Government service employment was up a combined 7 thousand seasonally adjusted jobs for September. Only state and local governments had job gains. In the federal government the Post Office picked some new jobs offset by equal losses in the rest of government service employment. State government added 2 thousand jobs; local government 5 thousand jobs.

State education employment lost 800 jobs to offset gains in other state government services. Local public schools added 1.9 thousand of the local government's 5 thousand total job increases. Private education was up a seasonally adjusted 13.9 thousand jobs, bigger than the August increase. Private education employment combined with public education made a net gain a little under 19 thousand jobs for public and private education. Notice another month with private education replacing public education.

Trade, transportation and utilities had the biggest increase in service employment for September but with just 26 thousand new jobs. Almost all the job gains, 21.8 thousand, were in transportation. Transit and passenger transportation had the biggest gains with 9.4 thousand new jobs. Air transportation picked up 3.3 thousand jobs; couriers and messenger services and warehousing and storage added another 8.4 thousand jobs. Wholesale and retail trade combined for a modest 3.8 thousand jobs. Utility did not have new jobs.

Professional and business services added a modest 13 thousand jobs, way down from normal increases. The professional and technical service sub sector picked up 11.9 thousand jobs of the total increase while management of companies dropped 4.2 thousand jobs; administration and support services including waste management added a net increase of 5.2 thousand jobs.

Among professional and technical services all but one sub sector had gains, but gainers had smaller gains than a typical month. Computer design and related services did the best with 4.2 thousand new jobs; management and technical consulting added another 1.9 thousand jobs. Among administrative and support services, temporary help services had the biggest gain with 5.9 thousand jobs while no other administrative support services did well. Travel arrangement and reservation services dropped 2.4 thousand jobs.

Health Care had a meager 13 thousand new jobs, a low increase and a poor month for health care employment. Ambulatory care added 24.7 thousand jobs, more than last month, and hospital employment added another 4.5 thousand jobs. However, nursing and residential care dropped 6.7 thousand jobs and social assistance another 9.4 thousand jobs to drag down the total increase. The September growth rate in health care employment was .80 percent, even lower than last month and well below the fifteen year trend of 2.33 percent.

Leisure and hospitality took a sharp dive after last month's tiny increase. It dropped 111 thousand jobs for September with food services, mostly restaurants down 105.4 thousand jobs. Otherwise leisure and hospitality did not have unusual or unexpected changes. Accommodations lost 700 jobs, a sector that rarely shows more than a few thousand increase in jobs and often loses jobs. Arts, entertainment and recreation lost a net 5.9 thousand jobs with the amusements, gambling and recreation sub sector down 9.2 thousand jobs offset by small gains in performing arts and spectator sports.

Information services dropped 9 thousand jobs, a thousand more than last month. Motion picture and sound recording lost 4.6 thousand jobs amid smaller losses in other sub sectors. Nothing in information did well. Financial activities added a net of 10 thousand jobs that included 4.5 thousand new jobs in finance and insurance while real estate and rental and leasing added another 5.6 thousand jobs, not much different than last month. The category, other services dropped 5 thousand jobs, not an unusual decrease. Non-profit associations had the biggest job loss, dropping 3.3 thousand while and repair and maintenance services dropped another 2.8 thousand jobs; personal and laundry services added only 400 jobs

Establishment employment was off 33 thousand in September to 146.659 million jobs. The net job decline can be blamed on the hurricanes given the loss of 111 thousand jobs at restaurants. However, if leisure and hospitality had not dropped but stayed at the August employment, the remaining sub sectors would have generated only 78 thousand new jobs. It is not obvious how any of the remaining sub sectors were affected by the hurricane. No other sub sectors had abnormal employment changes, either good or bad. Professional and business services and health care had small job gains that would not appear to have more than a tiny affect on employment from the hurricanes given their wide distribution in every state. September does not come out as a good employment report, but the hurricane impact cannot be known with much precision.

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September Details

Non Farm Total -33
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments decreased from August by 33 thousand jobs for a(n) September total of 146.659 million. (Note 1 below) A decrease of 33 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of -.27%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning September 2016 was +1.23%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning September 2012 was +1.74%; from 15 years ago beginning September 2002 it was .78%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000's of jobs

1. Natural Resources +2
Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining were up 2 thousand from August at 721 thousand jobs in September. An increase of 2 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be a growth rate of +3.34 percent. Natural resource jobs are up 60 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990's totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America's job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .5 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +8
Construction jobs were up 8 thousand from August with 6.911 million jobs in September. An increase of 8 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.39 percent. Construction jobs are up 184 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +4.09%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.7 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing -1
Manufacturing jobs were down 1 thousand from August with 12.447 million jobs in September. A decrease of 1 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.10 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 117 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.81%; for the last 15 years by
-1.29%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.5 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +26
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was up 26 thousand from August at 27.405 million jobs in September. An increase of 26 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.14 percent. Jobs are up by 83 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +1.45 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.7 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -9
Information Services employment were down 9 thousand from August at 2.707 million jobs in September. A decrease of 9 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -3.98 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are down by 79 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004, but now holds in the 2.7 million range. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +10
Financial Activities jobs were up 10 thousand from August at 8.473 million in September. An increase of 10 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of + 1.42 percent. Jobs are up 149 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been growing slowly with many months of negative growth. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +1.67 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +.41 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +13
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 13 thousand from August to 20.807 million in September. An increase of 13 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.75 percent. Jobs are up 528 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was 2.91 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.2 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private +19
Education jobs went up 19 thousand jobs from August at 14.061 million in September. These include public and private education. An increase of 19 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of+1.59 percent. Jobs are up 84 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.74 percent, slower than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 9.6 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +13
Health care jobs were up 13 thousand from August to 19.547 million in September. An increase of 13 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.80 percent. Jobs are up 389 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was below long term trends and less than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +2.03 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.33 percent annual rate for the last 15 years, a rate greater than the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 13.3 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality -111
Leisure and hospitality jobs went down 111 thousand from August to 15.873 million in September. A decrease of 111 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -8.33 percent. Jobs are up 189 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 2.73%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.9 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990's to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other -5
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went down 5 thousand from August to 5.761 million jobs in September. A decrease of 5 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -1.04 percent. Jobs are up 53 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +1.15 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.9 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +2
Government service employment was up 2 thousand from August to 11.946 million jobs in September. An increase of 2 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.24 percent. Jobs are up 20 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of +.18 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.2 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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