Tuesday, January 28, 2014

The Unwinding

George Packer, The Unwinding: An Inner History of the New America, (NY: Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 2013), 430 pages, $27.00

Some believe Americans live in a new age of decline. In The Unwinding author George Packer invites readers to test their views on decline while reading 430 pages of journalistic narrative on a selection of Americans and their activities from the last twenty-five years.

The book does not have chapters, but conveys the passage of time with one page reprints of media headlines and quotations from selected years: 1978, 1984, 1987, 1994, 1999, 2003, 2008, 2010, 2012. In between there are sections with extensive interview material from the lives of three people, Dean, Jeff and Tammy, and background material and interviews of people connected to three places, Silicon Valley, Tampa, Florida and Wall Street. Interspersed among these sections are somewhat shorter reviews of ten people with varied claims to celebrity status: Newt Gingrich, Oprah Winfrey, Raymond Carver, Sam Walton, Colin Powell, Alice Waters, Robert Rubin, Jay-Z, Andrew Breitbart, and Elizabeth Warren.

Almost half the book, 201 pages, narrates the interviews and biographical material of Dean, Jeff and Tammy. Dean grew up north of Greensboro, North Carolina on a family owned tobacco farm actually farmed by his grandfather. After finishing high school in 1981 he worked at RJ Reynolds Tobacco, but then returned to college. After college he spent eight years in Pennsylvania selling Johnson and Johnson products, but was too restless to continue. He returned to North Carolina to begin a career as an entrepreneur, opening a store he called Red Birch Country Market in 1997 and later a bio-diesel processing facility.

Jeff grew up in Huntsville Alabama the son of a chemical engineer. As a student at the University of Alabama he started the Alabama Political Union and invited Senator Joe Biden to debate SALT II with Senator Jake Garn. He finished college, got an MBA, worked for Smith Barney and E.F. Hutton, but he was so impressed with Biden he was always ready to work in a Biden for president campaign, which he did starting in 1986.

Tammy grew up on the east side of Youngstown, Ohio. She lived with her great grandmother, who supported her and her mother cleaning houses. She got pregnant at 15, was on welfare, worked as a cashier, had two more children, got an AA degree, and finally left welfare for a manufacturing job in 1988.

Their continuing tales of hard work and effort in the 1990’s and up to the present become the symbols for the unwinding of small entrepreneurial opportunities in the story of Dean, for a career in politics for Jeff, and for supporting yourself and a family in manufacturing for Tammy. No happy endings here.

I would call the material for Dean, Jeff and Tammy subtle compared to the material for Silicon Valley, Tampa, and Wall Street. These sections offer a blunter picture of ethical choices, or failures as you can decide. Silicon Valley material primarily follows the career and attitudes of Peter Thiel, best known for his part in developing PayPal and financing the expansion of Facebook.

In the narrative sections on Tampa we read about local homeowners victimized by the rogues and scoundrels who brought America the collateralized debt security and millions of home mortgage foreclosures. The section on Wall Street briefly develops the Wall Street contribution to the 2008 recession, but most of the material here covers the Occupy Wall Street movement, its organizers, their efforts, hopes and failures.

The ten celebrity profiles vary widely, but not as much from varied achievements as from varied degrees of arrogance and personal ambition run wild. Among the profiles I believe Packer picked the best symbol of an America unwinding: Newt Gingrich. In the early 1990’s Gingrich unified the angry and disaffected into a GOP voting block perfecting empty statements like “Corrupt liberal bosses cheat, lie, and steal to impose their sick pathetic cynicism and bizarre radical stagnation in order to destroy America.” Others among the celebrity ten let ambition cloud their personal and ethical judgment but none in the group quite so much as Gingrich.

The author avoids making personal judgments or drawing conclusions for the reader. He chose the people and places to make his argument, but leaves it up to the reader to agree or disagree. The book is long but the sections remain separate from each other and can be read as individual pieces. There is historical material mentioned in a few places like a discussion of the steel industry in Youngstown, but the narrative relies almost entirely on interviews and recently published secondary material. There is a short bibliography and notes on sources but not text citations.

I marked a couple of places that jumped out for me. In the commentary about Dean there was mention of white people living in small, obscure places and getting poorer and poorer who vote for the party that wants to deregulate Wall Street and zero out taxes on capital gains. I always want to believe voters are smart enough to vote for their best interests, but I can’t think of a thing the GOP is offering the working poor.

Toward the end of the book Packer quotes from commentary by Peter Thiel made after the lucrative sale of PayPal. He is quoted on page 388 as refusing to submit to “the ideology of the inevitability of the death of every individual.” With the current state of medical research he expects to live to 120, but 150 is becoming thinkable and research might extend to infinity and beyond.

Sometimes I hear comments from the rich and well placed that suggest they think of themselves as too important to die, but I do not recall any quite as blunt as Mr. Thiel. While I remain unsure that America’s current troubles mean decline, the Unwinding gives many reasons to distrust the rich, but that is a recurring American theme and not an Unwinding.



Sunday, January 19, 2014

Toll Lane Finance

Some cities and states are experimenting with tolls lanes on congested commuter highways to cut commute times. The new lanes are called HOT lanes, which stands for High Occupancy Toll. Highway officials argue the new policy gives a choice to crawl along in traffic or get in the fast lane.

State Department of Transportation officials around the country tell reporters they see toll lanes as a crucial way to generate revenue in an era of tight budgets. But they have not generated the revenue they expected even though they like the idea of managing traffic by adjusting prices. However, the economics of Hot Lanes guarantees the desire to raise revenue works against their ability to ease traffic congestion.

The Wall Street Journal reports 21 HOT lanes open around the country. [“Life in the Fast Lane, at a Cost”, WSJ, Nov 29, 2013] Road planners require a transponder mounted in commuter’s cars that allow charging a toll that can be varied depending on traffic, but admit tolls as high as $.90 a mile in the Atlanta HOT lanes have kept revenue and use down. Some who object to the charges call HOT lanes “Lexus Lanes” useful to the well-to-do who can afford high tolls.

It is important to remember the only reason to pay for a trip in a HOT lane is to save time. If the fees go down that does encourage more use of the lanes, but it also means the HOT lanes will be more congested and potentially raise trip times. It also suggests the free lanes will be less congested and lower trip times for the free users.

In Virginia along I-95, officials have promoted car pooling by reserving 2 lanes as HOV lanes of three or more people while leaving 3 lanes open to all traffic. To show how well the 14 mile car pool lanes work they released a compilation of information of several recent years about respective travel times from 6:30 AM to 9:30 AM.

The two HOV-3 lanes carried an average 31,700 people in 8,600 cars at an average time of 29 minutes. The three open lanes carried 23,500 people in 21,300 cars at an average time of 64 minutes. The HOV-3 lanes allowed a savings of 35 minutes with an average of 4,300 cars per lane, but the unrestricted lanes were badly congested with 7,100 cars per lane.

The system of car pool lanes has operated for many years without tolls, which officials say they want to keep, but in addition to allow single or two occupancy cars to switch into the HOV3 lanes by paying a toll. Officials in Virginia are suggesting a toll of $5 to $7 dollars is needed for the 14 mile trip on I-95, but the higher the fee the fewer the riders and the less the revenue.

Lower fees will not raise revenue unless the percentage increase in riders is greater than the percentage decrease in the tolls. However, the bigger the increase of riders they get to switch the more quickly the fast lanes will get congested and raise travel times in the HOT lanes and defeat the program.

Everything about the proposals so far indicates fees will have to be high to keep travel times down. High tolls mean HOT lanes work primarily for the well-to-do that do not, or cannot, carpool or worry about travel expenses. In the mean time road planners will have to decide whether they want to allocate scare travel space to the highest bidder or raise revenue for road budgets. They can’t do both.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Jobs with Animals

For those with an interest in animals who would like to pursue a career working with animals it is worth knowing the Standard Occupational Classification has ten occupations doing various things with, or for, animals. In 2012 there were 437.9 thousand jobs in these occupations.

The ten Standard Occupational Classifications with their 2012 employment, average annual change in employment since 2000.and SOC definition are below.

#19-1011 Animal Scientist– 2,120, 45/yr
Conduct research in the genetics, nutrition, reproduction, growth, and development of domestic farm animals. Also known as dairy scientist, poultry scientist. Animal scientists work for better, lower cost ways to produce meat, poultry, eggs and milk.

A few animal scientists work in private industry especially food processing, but most work at state universities and state funded agricultural experiment stations doing food related research. A doctorate in biology, chemistry or relevant engineering is necessary for independent research although a BA degree in an agricultural science field qualifies to assist in research.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for animal scientist is reported as $34,550 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $43,940. The median wage is $61,680, the 75th percentile wage equals $91,160, and the 90th percentile wage is $129,440.

The wages of animal scientists have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $47,800 in 2012, the animal scientist wage would need to be $54,437.53. In stead it was $61,680, a 13.3 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#19-1023 Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists– 18,650, 578/yr
Study the origins, behavior, diseases, genetics, and life processes of animals and wildlife. May specialize in wildlife research and management, including the collection and analysis of biological data to determine the environmental effects of present and potential use of land and water areas. Also known by specialty as Ornithologist, Mammalogists, Herpetologist, Ichthyologists

Government employs nearly two thirds of zoologists and wildlife biologists. A few percent work in education as teachers and few more work in the private sector as consultants. A B.A. degree is a minimum requirement, but a PhD is necessary to lead independent research.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists is reported as $37,100 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $45,790. The median wage is $57,710, the 75th percentile wage equals $73,010, and the 90th percentile wage is $95,430.

The wages of Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists have not kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $53,300 in 2012, the Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists wage would need to be $60,701.15. Instead it was $57,710, a -4.93 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#29-1131 Veterinarian– 56,020, 1,313/yr
Diagnose and treat diseases and dysfunctions of animals. May engage in a particular function, such as research and development, consultation, administration, technical writing, sale or production of commercial products, or rendering of technical services to commercial firms or other organizations. Include veterinarians who inspect livestock. Also known as Animal Pathologist, Animal Surgeon, Veterinary Bacteriologist, Veterinary Inspector

A Veterinarian requires four years of college and then a veterinarian degree from one of Americans 29 vet schools, which are primarily at state universities. Almost all work in veterinary services either as a salaried employee or self employed. A small percent work teaching and a small percent in research.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Veterinarian is reported as $51,530 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $67,040. The median wage is $84,460, the 75th percentile wage equals $108,640, and the 90th percentile wage is $144,100.

The wages of Veterinarian have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $71,990 in 2012, the Veterinarian wage would need to be $81,986.41. In stead it was $84,460, a 3.02 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#29-2056 Veterinary Technologists and Technicians– 83,350, 2,748/yr
Perform medical tests in a laboratory environment for use in the treatment and diagnosis of diseases in animals. Prepare vaccines and serums for prevention of diseases. Prepare tissue samples, take blood samples, and execute laboratory tests, such as urinalysis and blood counts. Clean and sterilize instruments and materials and maintain equipment and machines. Also known as Animal Technician; Veterinary X-ray Operator

A Veterinary Technologist or Technician has the same types of duties in a veterinary practice that a registered nurse has in the health care field. To qualify an AA or BA degree in animal health technology or veterinary technician assistant is necessary. Virtually all of them work in veterinary services because they assist veterinarians.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Veterinary Technologists and Technicians is reported as $21,030 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $25,150. The median wage is $30,290, the 75th percentile wage equals $36,580, and the 90th percentile wage is $44,030.

The wages of Veterinary Technologists and Technicians have not kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $26,780 in 2012, the Veterinary Technologists and Technicians wage would need to be $30,498.63. In stead it was $30,290, a -.68 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#31-9096 Veterinary Assistants & Laboratory Animal Caretakers– 71,500, 1,358/yr
Feed, water, and examine pets and other non-farm animals for signs of illness, disease, or injury in laboratories and animal hospitals and clinics. Clean and disinfect cages and work areas, and sterilize laboratory and surgical equipment. May provide routine post-operative care, administer medication orally or topically, or prepare samples for laboratory examination under the supervision of veterinary or laboratory animal technologists or technicians, veterinarians, or scientists.

Veterinary assistants work for veterinary technologists or veterinarians either in their vet practices or helping to care for animals that are part of veterinary research Training is usually on the job training.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers is reported as $17,150 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $19,220. The median wage is $23,130, the 75th percentile wage equals $28,840, and the 90th percentile wage is $35,510.

The wages of Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $19,960 in 2012, the Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers wage would need to be $22,731.61. In stead it was $23,130, a 1.75 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#33-9011 Animal Control Workers – 13,890, 486/yr
Handle animals for the purpose of investigations of mistreatment, or control of abandoned, dangerous, or unattended animals. Also known as Animal Warden; Dog Catcher; Humane Officer

Almost 90 percent of Animal Control Workers work for a municipal government. The rest work for civic associations like humane societies. There are no educational requirements beyond high school. Training is mostly on the job training.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Animal Control Workers is reported as $19,730 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $25,090. The median wage is $31,680, the 75th percentile wage equals $39,920, and the 90th percentile wage is $50,730.

The wages of Animal Control Workers have not kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $27,910 in 2012, the Animal Control Workers wage would need to be $31,785.54. In stead it was $31,680, a -.33 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#39-2011 Animal Trainers - 11,170, 398/yr
Train animals for riding, harness, security, performance, or obedience, or assisting persons with disabilities. Accustom animals to human voice and contact; condition animals to respond to commands. Train animals according to prescribed standards for show or competition. May train animals to carry pack loads or work as part of a pack team. Also known as Dog Trainer; Horse Breaker; Lion Trainer

More than half of animal trainers are self-employed and most train dogs or horses. Agriculture, forestry and hunting also employ another 25 to 30 percent. Nine to ten percent train animals as paid employees of pet services companies or retail pet stores. Zoos, nature parks, historical sites, spectator sports employ another 5 percent. A high school education is adequate as formal education and the rest is on the job training from someone more experienced.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Animal Trainers is reported as $17,580 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $19,860. The median wage is $25,270, the 75th percentile wage equals $36,560, and the 90th percentile wage is $49,840.

The wages of Animal Trainers have not kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $26,310 in 2012, the Animal Trainers wage would need to be $29,963.37. In stead it was $25,270, a -15.66 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#39-2021 Non-farm Animal Caretakers -- 150,140, 5,275/yr
Feed, water, groom, bathe, exercise, or otherwise care for pets and other nonfarm animals, such as dogs, cats, ornamental fish or birds, zoo animals, and mice. Work in settings such as kennels, animal shelters, zoos, circuses, and aquariums. May keep records of feedings, treatments, and animals received or discharged. May clean, disinfect, and repair cages, pens, or fish tanks. Also known as Dog Walker, Dog Groomer, Kennel Worker; Stable Attendant

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Non-farm Animal Caretakers is reported as $16,490 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $17,790. The median wage is $19,690, the 75th percentile wage equals $24,590, and the 90th percentile wage is $32,500.

The wages of Non-farm Animal Caretakers have not kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $18,140 in 2012, the Non-farm Animal Caretakers wage would need to be $20,658.89. In stead it was $19,690, a -4.69 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#45-2021 Animal Breeders– 1,460, -18/yr
Breed animals such as cattle, goats, horses, sheep, swine, poultry, dogs, cats, or pet birds. Select and breed animals according to their genealogy, characteristics, and offspring. May require knowledge of artificial insemination techniques and equipment use. May involve keeping records on heats, birth intervals, or pedigree. Also known as Artificial Inseminator; Chicken Fancier; Horse Breeder

Animal breeders are mostly self employed but many do work as salaried employees in agriculture. Less than one percent work in other industries. A high school education and prior experience with animals is enough training in many situations but more animal breeders use the science of genetics and statistics to evaluate breeding rates for good growth, meat, milk and egg production rates.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Animal Breeders is reported as $18,110 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $24,650. The median wage is $34,250, the 75th percentile wage equals $49,460, and the 90th percentile wage is $59,340.

The wages of Animal Breeders have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $27,090 in 2012, the Animal Breeders wage would need to be $30,851.67. In stead it was $34,250, an 11.02 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

#45-2093 Farm workers– 29,570, -558/yr
Attend to live farm, ranch, or aqua-cultural animals that may include cattle, sheep, swine, goats, horses and other equines, poultry, finfish, shellfish, and bees. Attend to animals produced for animal products, such as meat, fur, skins, feathers, eggs, milk, and honey. Duties may include feeding, watering, herding, grazing, castrating, branding, de-beaking, weighing, catching, and loading animals. May maintain records on animals; examine animals to detect diseases and injuries; assist in birth deliveries; and administer medications, vaccinations, or insecticides as appropriate. May clean and maintain animal housing areas. Include workers who shear wool from sheep, and collect eggs in hatcheries. Also known as Horse Groomer; Beekeeper; Livestock Feeder

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Farm workers is reported as $16,690 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $18,430. The median wage is $22,060, the 75th percentile wage equals $28,210, and the 90th percentile wage is $35,790.

The wages of farm workers have kept up with inflation for the last decade. For example, to have the buying power of the 2006 median wage of $19,060 in 2012, the Farm workers wage would need to be $21,706.64. In stead it was $22,060, a 1.63 percent increase in the real wage for those six years.

Summary

Non-farm animal care taker has 34 percent of the 437.9 thousand jobs in the ten occupations. It also has the most new jobs over the last decade, but unfortunately the lowest median wage, which has not kept up with inflation since 2006. Only three of the ten occupations have a median wage over $50,000 – animal scientist, zoologist and wildlife biologist, veterinarian – and three more have median wages in the $30,000’s -- Veterinary Technologists and Technicians, Animal Control Workers, Animal Breeders can be considered career employment. Three have median wages in the $20,000’s – Veterinary Assistants & Laboratory Animal Caretakers, animal trainer, farm worker. Non-farm Animal Caretakers – has a median salary below $19,690.