Service Jobs - Summary

On this post we want to summarize the big picture of changes to service providing jobs from 1990 through 2012. The table below highlights sector job counts detailed from the sector job posts above. Remember it does not count people employed, which averaged 142.5 million for 2012. People employed counts wage and salary employment and the self employed both in and out of agriculture. The table below counts jobs, otherwise known as establishment employment without any self employed, which had a monthly average total of 133.7 million jobs in 2012. Jobs do not equal people employed because one person can have two or more jobs. One person with two jobs is counted twice in the jobs data, but once in the people employed data.

Summary of Service Industry Employment with pie charts below

Columns (2) and (4) in the table have annual average establishment employment by North American Industry Classification for 1990 and 2012. Columns (3) and (5) have their respective percentage shares of establishment employment with column (6) showing the gain or loss of jobs from 1990 to 2012. Column (7) has the difference of the percentage of sector employment for 2012 from the percentage for 1990. As a computation it is column(5) minus column(3). For example, row(2) shows changes and percentage shifts in goods production. Goods production employment declined 7.9 percent.

Column(8) translates the share changes into jobs from a share loss. For example row(2) shows 5.313 million jobs lost for goods production employment. If good production had maintained its share of employment as it was in 1990 there would be 10.568 million more goods production jobs than there are in 2012. The number is the product of total establishment employment in row(1) and column(4) and the percentage gain or loss in column(7). Notice that the loss of goods producing employment exactly equals the gain of service providing employment. The other rows in column(8) are computed the same way and distribute the share gains and losses between different industries.

The gain for service providing employment is not evenly distributed across service industries. The gainers are grouped at the top of service providers and together they have an 11.53 percent gain. The losers are grouped at the bottom of service providers and together than have a 3.63 percent loss. Their combination equals 7.90 percent.

The table also highlights the shift of employment within service providing industries, where there are 15.420 million new jobs that resulted from an industry's percentage increase of all jobs. This constrasts with 4.853 million jobs lost that resulted from an industry's share decreases. The combination exactly equals the 10.568 million gain for service providing industries and the equivalent loss for goods production.

Two pie charts give a visual look at the changes in shares. The first chart has the percentage split of the nearly 15.42 million jobs in share gaining service sectors. The second chart has the percentage of 4.85 million jobs in share losing service sectors.

Distribution of 15.42 Million Job Share Gains by Service Sector 1990-2012

Distribution of 4.85 million Job Share Losses by Service Sector 1990-2012

Service Jobs - Government

Government

Total government employment for federal, state and local government equals 21.9 million as of 2012. Government, excluding education and public hospital employment has 10.4 million jobs, which is the difference of 21.9 million and 10.2 million jobs in public education and 1.3 million public hospital jobs.

Jobs in government excluding education and hospitals include office work for executive offices, regulatory and legislative bodies, and the judiciary, but also all the rest of the jobs in parks, recreation, public health excluding public hospitals, public works, corrections and a few more. Federal employment includes the postal service and defense department among others.

Government produces valuable services. Valuable production should be added to Gross Domestic Product to reflect our hard work and productive capacity, but government’s valuable services are rarely sold so there is no market value to record as production. What is it worth to have Congress spend months passing environmental legislation, then to have executive bureaucracies write regulations to administer the law, and then to have courts hear law suits to interpret the law?

There is no ready measure of values to include in GDP so the practice is to value government services at cost. Government cost of production though is labor cost only. When the government buys computers and reams of paper it is recorded as a final sale from business to government. Since the goods and services government buys are already included in GDP as part of business final sales, they are not added again. Government’s cost of labor to provide services represents its contribution to GDP. It guarantees that more government jobs mean more Gross Domestic Product.

The decision to use labor cost as government’s addition to GDP is a sensible compromise in the computation of GDP. Since the objective of computing GDP is to measure our productive capacity, government work should not be ignored. No attempt is made to differentiate between one type of government labor and another. When services are bought in common as they are with government they could be for anything.

On April 1, 2005 the Washington Post published an article about a Congressional investigation: “Cost of Cisneros Probe Nears $21 million Over 10 years.” Cisneros was President Clinton’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development way back in 1995. Congress authorized an independent counsel investigation after allegations that Cisneros lied about payments to his mistress. After 4 years and $10.3 million dollars of investigation, Cisneros pleaded guilty. That was in 1999, but the investigation continued in order to investigate if anyone attempted to obstruct justice, the Washington Post reported. The continued probe added another $10.7 million to the expense, hence the caption “$21 million over 10 years”.

We could say America would be better off if the money used on the Cisneros investigation went into medical research or highway construction, but that is different from saying government should reduce its total expenditures, or even that it wasted money. Either expenditure pumps $21 million into the economy and any cut in government spending whether it is for medical research, highway construction or Cisneros probes will reduce GDP and harm employment. Government is a major employer and even though the government has money to pursue what appears like a political vendetta, as in the Cisneros case, America needs government that is actively creating jobs.

The current expenditures of government add up to $5.659 trillion in 2012 or nearly 35 percent as large as Gross Domestic Product. It is a big enough share to think that government spending by all levels of government provides a mighty engine of employment. All this spending is supported by taxes and borrowing. Taxes reduce private spending and job creation, but those in government are experts at spending all their revenue as fast as they can. They run deficits and make debt finance a way to pep up employment and put off higher taxes. The federal government can borrow but also controls the money supply so it can create money to cover its spending and put off collecting taxes. Local governments can use bond-funded projects to speed up and enlarge spending in the near term and let the growth in property values and higher property taxes pay for capital projects in the future.

The decision to do Cisneros probes or build roads and highways is the decision of government. Builders and developers build a few roads in their new developments, but the roads that get people from here to there are planned and funded by a government. The actual building is typically contracted to private firms in the highway, street and bridge construction industry. The people who work in this industry are counted as part of employment in private business and not counted as government employees. Government employment is already large, but undercounts employment that is the result of government taxing and spending such as employment in the highway, street and bridge construction industry since they are on private payrolls even though their jobs are really the result of government spending. The terms government contractor, outsourcing and privatization all connote private businesses, but they are private businesses doing government funded and government sponsored work. Government employment added to government sponsored employment is more than a mere 21.9 million: much more.

Government creates many jobs both in and out of government but the jobs it has for those on government payrolls has lots of work that develop and support specialized skills and careers in life science, physical science, social science, finance, law, corrections, and transportation. Some of the work is not done anywhere else and requires government funding. We are excluding the jobs in education or public hospitals.

Many of the government’s specialized and professional jobs require college degree training but especially baccalaureate degree training, and that is without mention of the millions of jobs in education, since we are only discussing government excluding education. Nearly 40 percent of jobs in the Federal Government require BA degree skills or higher; 33 percent in state government; 17.5 in local government.

In life science occupations, conservation scientists, zoologists, foresters, epidemiologists have more jobs in government than all other private sector jobs combined, a total of almost 35 thousand jobs. Soil and plant scientists have 2.8 thousand jobs; microbiologists 4.7 thousand jobs. In the physical sciences, astronomers, atmospheric and space scientists, environmental scientists and hydrologists depend on government to maintain work that supported 44.2 thousand jobs in 2012. In the social sciences 90 percent of forensic scientists work for government 11.3 thousand jobs. Nearly 35 percent of all social scientists work in government, almost 80 thousand jobs. Over half of political scientists and nearly half of economists work in government jobs. The percentages apply to those actually working as political scientists and economists and not those teaching at schools and universities. They are counted as faculty in education totals.

In engineering, aerospace engineers, civil engineers, environmental engineers and health and safety engineers over 98 thousand jobs. Government employs 21.6 thousand as mathematicians, statisticians, operations research analysts and cartographers who work in jobs outside of teaching.

Counselors and social workers have 249.9 thousand jobs on government payrolls for those working as practitioners, but many work in health care where government supported or subsidized health care supports another 375.7 thousand jobs. Those totals do not count those teaching and working at schools and universities where there are 260.2 thousand more jobs. Counselors and social workers owe their employment to government.

Then there are courts that employ 100 percent of judges, magistrates, administrative law judges, adjudicators and hearing officers, judicial law clerks and bailiffs, but almost two thirds of court reporters, and more than 20 percent of lawyers. Combine law jobs in the government come to over 259 thousand jobs for 2012.

The courts enforce laws but law enforcement has more than 613.1 thousand government jobs as police and sheriffs patrol officers, another 97.4 thousand as detectives and investigators, but more jobs as fish and game wardens, parking enforcement officers, railroad and transit police, crossing guards, lifeguards and a few more.

Law enforcement generates prisoners. The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports 7 million Americans under correctional supervision, or 2.24 million in prisons and jails, 854 thousand on parole and 3.9 million on probation at the beginning of 2012. American needs jobs and millions of prisoners create lots of jobs: 411,050 reported jobs as correctional officers and jailors, 42,870 jobs as first line managers of correctional officers and jailors and 82,910 jobs as Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists.

Outside of the office bureaucracies there were 286 thousand jobs in 2012 on government payrolls as agricultural inspector, construction and building inspector, highway maintenance worker, power plant operator, and water and sewage treatment plant operator. More work in government transportation jobs with 2012 totals of 21.9 thousand air traffic controllers, 2.3 thousand ambulance drivers, 133.9 thousand bus drivers, 8.1 thousand subway and street car drivers, 22.7 thousand heavy and tractor trailer truck drivers, 2.9 thousand bridge and lock tenders and a few more.

Do not forget the postal service where 605 thousand still work as of 2012 doing 509 thousand jobs as postmasters, postal clerks, mail sorters, processors, processing machine operators and letter carriers among other jobs. Remember too we are talking about civilian employment so the armed forces are not included here.

Office and administrative support work support 16.3 percent of jobs in the national economy. Government bureaucracies support a high percentage of jobs in office administration and support jobs. Federal government bureaucracies have 11.9 percent in office administration and support; in state government bureaucracies, excluding education, 18.9 percent; and in local government bureaucracies, excluding education, 18.7 percent.

Budget analysts, financial examiners, and appraisers of real estate have the largest share of jobs in government with 24 thousand budget analysts, 10.1 thousand financial examiners, and 27.2 thousand appraisers. All of tax examiners, collectors and revenue agents work for government more than 65.6 thousand strong, and they support thousands more jobs at accounting firms and tax services.

With a 115.3 million service jobs to divvy up, government service, excluding education and hospital employment gives us 10.4 million jobs, but that is only 7.8 percent of establishment employment. There are no more service jobs left and we have distributed all 115.3 million of them by their NAICS sector categories.

In the period from 1990 to 2012, good production employment declined 7.94 percent as service providing employment increased by 7.94 percent. Remember good production equals the total of jobs for natural resources, principally mining and logging, construction and manufacturing. Manufacturing employment went down 7.3 percent with all natural resources, construction and manufacturing employment in decline. The 7.94 percent decrease is a net, which disguises an even bigger shift out of manufacturing employment.

In service providing employment the 7.94 percent increase disguises shifts within service sectors because even though the net increase is 7.94 percent there are sectors that decreased and a combination of services that increased more than 7.94 percent. It is time to make a summary of service employment changes, which comes up next.

Service Jobs - Food-Accommodation

Accommodation and Food Services

Accommodation and Food Services jobs total 11.8 million in 2012. The accommodation part has traveler accommodations, not residential accommodation. Include hotels, motels, bed and breakfast inns, casino hotels, RV parks, campgrounds and rooming and boarding houses. Rooming and Boarding houses include dormitories, fraternity and sorority houses.

Establishments primarily engaged in preparing food to order for immediate consumption go in this sector as full and limited service restaurants but the key words are preparing food and immediate consumption. Food services have to have both and the definition also fits fast food outlets, cafeterias, pizza delivery, snack bars, takeout, catering, ice cream parlors, and beverage bars. Establishments primarily selling food prepared elsewhere and not packaged for immediate consumption are counted with grocery stores.

Accommodations have 15.4 percent, or 1.82 million of the jobs, where as foodservices has the other 84.6 percent, or 9.96 million of the jobs. However, other sectors have restaurant jobs. For example, a hotel could run a restaurant even though it is primarily engaged in running a hotel. There is one establishment with hotel workers and food service workers. The same hotel might lease their first floor to an independent restaurateur so there might be two establishments, a hotel and a restaurant. In the former the jobs are counted in the accommodation sub sector, and in the latter, food jobs are split between accommodation and food services.

Food service occupations are cooks, bartenders, hosts and hostesses, waiters and waitresses, counter attendants, bartenders, dishwashers and few jobs as drivers, and cashiers. These jobs are 90 percent of restaurant staffing and 25 percent of hotel, motel and accommodation staffing. Only about 80 to 81 percent of these jobs are actually in the food services sector with the rest scattered in accommodations, in health care where hospitals run food services, at schools which have cafeterias, at ball parks and theatres which run restaurants and sell fast food. Apocalypse

The accommodation industry has significant building and grounds maintenance work with 29 percent of jobs. Maids are 24 percent of hotel-motel employment; desk clerks have 12 percent of jobs. Managerial positions are barely 4 percent of employment in accommodations and food services and mostly confined to food service managers and lodging managers, but also gaming managers since casino hotel jobs are here.

Only a few jobs or occupations use college degree skills and not too many stay around to make restaurant work a career. The net separation rate for an occupation measures the percentage of new entrants needed to replace people who permanently leave an occupation. In restaurants net separations for waiter and waitress tend to be above 50 percent, and serving and counter attendants also have separation rates 50 percent and above. Those ages 16 to 24 work in restaurants but many leave for other occupations. Even so there are millions of jobs and they keep increasing. Add the 9.96 million jobs in restaurants mentioned above to the other food service workers in accommodations, schools, hospitals, retail stores or ball parks, museums and other recreation facilities and the total comes to a little over 11.5 million food service jobs.

Cooking used to be one of America’s biggest do it yourself occupations. Everyone can stay home and cook, but more and more we go out. In the production-marketing chain of food this helps our employment and probably more than most people realize. Start on the farm and let’s count America’s farmers. Next add all the jobs in pesticide, fertilizer and agricultural chemicals, and all of the jobs in agricultural implement manufacturing. Add in the jobs at farm supply wholesalers, and farm raw material wholesalers. Then move on to food manufacturing. Add all the manufacturing jobs milling, canning, freezing, bottling, refining, slaughtering, baking, brewing, distilling, fermenting and packaging. Add them to grocery store merchant wholesaler jobs and all the jobs at grocery stores, convenience stores, liquor stores and food stores. The total comes to 6.96 million jobs in 2012.

Worse, jobs from the farm to the supermarket continue to decline due to productivity growth and imports in the global economy. Restaurants are the only part of the food chain Americans can count on for new jobs. You may like to go to restaurants; you may need to go to restaurants, but America needs jobs, so now you know, you must go to restaurants. It’s your civic duty. Go out often.

Maybe a few get rich in the restaurant business but if we look at the wage data reported for the BLS occupational employment survey, then food services wages are dead last among America’s jobs with a median annual wage of $18,930 in May 2012, which is lower buying power compared to 2009 and 2002. For the 2009 median wage of $18,490 to have the same buying power in 2012 it would need to be $19,797, but instead it was $18,930, a 4.38 percent decrease in buying power. For the 2002 median wage of $15,240 to have the same buying power in 2012 it would need to be $19,454, but instead it was $18,930, a 2.69 percent decrease in buying power. The reported and published wages are supposed to include tip income, but that implies the managers reporting wages for the Occupational Employment Survey know what they are.

With a 115.3 million service jobs to divvy up, accommodation and food services employment gives us 11.8 million jobs, but that is only 8.8 percent of establishment employment. Accommodation and food services employment is growing faster than the national rate. We have to expect a relative increase in accommodation and food services in national employment. We only have 1 sector left to go; government with 10.4 million jobs.

Service Jobs - Repair-Main-Personal

The Last Three Services from the Other Sector

There are four sub-sectors that were put into the sector classification called, Other. One was Non-Profit organizations discussed earlier. The other three service sub sectors have little in common with each other, or non-profit organizations. They are Repair and Maintenance Services, Personal and Laundry Services, and Private Households.
Repair and Maintenance had a monthly average of 1.19 million jobs in 2012 with 70 percent of jobs in car and truck repair. That total includes 140.7 thousand employed at car washes along with other jobs at bump shops and auto glass replacement. Car crashes reduce our well-being but create jobs and production adding to the gross domestic product.

The rest of Repair and Maintenance has 360.6 thousand jobs at establishments fixing or maintaining commercial machinery and electronic equipment, or fixing household goods. More than half of these jobs are in the commercial segment. Establishments doing household repairs for lawnmowers, appliances, shoe repair, watch repair, upholstery and a few more have around 67.8 thousand jobs.

Personal services had 1.31 million jobs in 2012. Beauty parlors and barbershops have 627.9 thousand jobs and growing. The rest of the jobs are at funeral parlors, cemeteries, crematories, laundry and dry cleaning, pet care, photo finishing, and parking lots. Laundry and dry cleaning services and photo finishing jobs continue to drop a few thousand a year. Parking lot jobs are up again after dropping from the 2008-2009 recession and now at 118.9 thousand jobs.

Pet Care Services employment is up with more jobs every single year since 1992 and now at 74.6 thousand. The only occupation with lots of jobs in the Pet Care Services industry has the quaint Bureau of Labor Statistics definition: Non-Farm Animal Caretaker. Their job description turns out to be a list of down to earth activities: train, feed, water, groom, bathe and exercise animals, and clean, disinfect and repair their cages. There are 85.6 thousand of them and some work at zoos but quite a few work personal services, mostly as kennel workers and dog walkers.

Few jobs need college degree skills in any of these sub sectors, around one percent actually. Repair and maintenance and personal service firms have very similar staffing in that they all tend to have a manager, a receptionist, an office clerk, a bookkeeper and maybe a secretary or someone else in office administration. After that it is jobs doing services.

Many jobs here in installation, maintenance and repair require training and experience and the best jobs in these sub sectors are doing these occupations. Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics have 225.4 thousand jobs just in auto repair shops out of 596.1 thousand total jobs. Other auto mechanics work at auto dealerships or for gasoline stations. About another 149.9 thousand do car body repair or replace broken glass out of independent shops.

Electrical and electronics installation, maintenance and repair occupations have 47.1 thousand out of just over 601.3 thousand jobs. Many of these jobs are also in manufacturing, retail and the telecommunications industries.

Private households are classified as an industry in the North American Industry Classification System because households employ cooks, maids, butlers and caretakers to produce services at households. These services are transactions and production and so they are counted as part of the GDP and given their own sector. They are not counted as part of establishment employment because households are not establishments for purposes of establishment data. The Bureau of the Census reports 724 thousand jobs in non-agricultural households with more than 90 percent of the jobs as maid, nanny, personal aide and cook. However, they are not in the 115.3 million of total national service employment, even though they are definitely services.

With a 115.3 million service jobs to divvy up, repair and maintenance services and personal services employment gives us 2.5 million jobs, but that is only 1.9 percent of service employment. Repair and maintenance services and personal services continue to grow but slowly and less than the national average from 1990 to 2012. They will continue to lose share even though they have more jobs. We have two sub sectors left to go: accommodation and food services, and government service, excluding education. The two sectors have 21.1 million jobs.

Labor Market Forecast

Forecasting Labor Market Trends from 2006 to 2014

On this blog we believe forecaster’s would have a bigger following if they would explain more about their methods, which are not that complicated. Forecasting requires a blend of technique and a set of assumptions. For example, forecasting labor markets for the years ahead depends on the continued physical availability of gasoline. Shut off the gasoline and forecasts go haywire. Lack of gasoline will affect all economic forecasts, but labor markets have their own assumptions and peculiarities, which if discussed and described will improve the credibility of forecasts.

The links here go first to the national forecast and forecast table and then to progressive levels of forecast detail. Second, there are things to know in labor forecasting. Third, there are forecasts of relative growth and change by sectors for high growth, slow growth and decline. Fourth, there is a discussion for each of the 22 sectors from the forecast table.


The Forecast

The national non-farm jobs projection calls for an average of 1.876 million new jobs per year or an increase from 136.174 million establishment jobs in 2006 to 151.182 million jobs in 2014, which is just more than 15 million new jobs. That is an annual growth rate of 1.32 percent in the years 2006-2014. The growth rate from 1990 to 2006 was 1.37 percent so the projected growth rate is just below the most recent average annual growth rates. The forecast table below divides the total increase into 22 industry sectors and gives a summary by sectors.

Forecast Table



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Things to know in Labor Forecasting

First, long term forecasts use different methods than short term forecasts. Monthly or quarterly job forecasts use the same methods and carry the same risks as forecasting business cycles or recessions and expansions. Multi year forecasts ignore cycles and develop defensible yearly trends based on movements in population, productivity, technology and trade in the global economy. The forecasts above are long term annual forecasts.

Second, long term job forecasts start with population changes. The civilian population over age 16 continues to grow. Since 1990 the compounded annual rate of growth equals 1.2 percent using Current Population Survey data. If we projected that jobs would increase by population growth it would be a decent long term estimate since we know a growing population requires jobs. We can do better than that because there is more data and we want some details.

Third, a steady percentage of adults enter the workforce. In 1990 the civilian labor force was 66.5 percent of the civilian population; in 2006 it was 66.2 percent, where the civilian labor force includes the employed plus the unemployed actively seeking work. There are minor fluctuations month to month but for the last 20 years 66 percent and a fraction of adults entered the labor force. In the future we can be confident 66 percent of a growing adult population will be working or looking for work. The percentage does not gyrate and if it grows it will grow slowly.

A predictable percentage of the population entering the workforce helps a lot in forecasting. From 1990, the civilian labor force grew at an annual rate of 1.16 percent, employment grew at an annual rate of 1.23 percent and we already know from above that the civilian population over age 16 grew at 1.2 percent. Because the population totals are so much bigger a change in the flow of people entering the workforce, or a change in the flow of unemployed can cause the rates to vary, but as we can see they do not vary very much. That makes it possible to move from population growth to job growth in predictable way.

Fourth, employment data is subdivided by class. Start with 144.4 million people employed. The first subdivision breaks employment into agricultural and non-agricultural employment. Agricultural employment is down to 2.2 million and its sinking: down, down, down. It is 1.5 percent of employment for 2006 leaving 142.2 million in non-agricultural employment, or 98.5 percent of people employed.

Non-agricultural employment has its own sub divisions for wage and salary employment and the self-employed which include unpaid family workers who work 15 hours a week or more in a family business. Out of 142.2 million nonagricultural employed 132.4 million are wage and salary employment and 9.8 million are self employed. The 132.4 million people employed in wage and salary employment are almost 92 percent of the 144.4 million total from above.

The wage and salary employment cited above are people working. They might have one job or they might have two, but they are counted once in wage and salary employment. At the Bureau of Labor Statistics they also count jobs as part of their Current Employment Survey. Jobs and people employed in wage and salary employment are almost the same, but not quite. If one person has two jobs, or for that matter three or four jobs, they are counted as one person in wage and salary employment, but the Current Employment Survey counts jobs so a person holding two jobs gets counted as two jobs in jobs data.

The wage and salary employment of people and the number of jobs both increased at the same annual percentage rate of growth from 1990 to 2006; it was 1.37 percent per year. Because some people hold two or more jobs the 2006 total of jobs is 136.2 million jobs, an amount nearly 4 million more than the number of people in wage and salary employment from above. These projections on this blog are for jobs data.

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Forecasting Relative Change by Sector: High Growth, Slow Growth and Decline

In labor forecasting jobs will go up if the population goes up and for national forecasts such as these we know population has been growing and will be growing. If the jobs in all 22 sectors increased at the same rate as the total of non-farm jobs then there would not be any shift in relative share of jobs and all sectors would gain enough new jobs to maintain their percentage of the total. More would be working but all in the same proportion from one year to another. However, growth rates among the sectors vary and make up three distinct categories of change, which are high growth, slow growth and negative growth.

Looking at the forecast table you can tell the difference of the three categories by the annual growth rates in the last two columns. Those sectors with growth rates above the non-farm growth rate gain relative share; those with growth rates below the non-farm average but still positive will gain jobs but lose relative share; those with negative growth rates will lose jobs and lose share. The 22 sectors are listed in the categories below with further discussion and background by sector below that. Remember the annual average growth rate from 990 to 2006 is 1.37 Percent.

The first category has growth rates greater than the national average for 1990 to 2006 and forecasted for 2006 to 2014. High growth rates in the first category include 10 of the 22 sectors that continue to grow and have a bigger share of America’s jobs. Ordered by growth rate(%) from highest to lowest they are (1) Administrative Support & Waste Management Services(3.78%), (2) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation( 3.37%), (3) Professional and Technical Services(3.05%), (4) Health Care(3.00%), (5) Construction(2.39%),(6) Food Services, and drinking places(2.28%), (7) Public and Private Education(2.17%), (8) Non-profit Organizations(1.94%), (9) Real Estate and Rental Leasing(1.81%), (10) Transportation and Warehousing(1.58%).

The second category has 9 of the 22 sectors with growth rates less than the national average for 1990 to 2006 and 2006 to 2014. Slow growth rates assure sectors with more jobs, but their slow growth assures they will have a decreasing share of jobs. Ordered by growth rate from highest to lowest they are (1) Finance and Insurance(1.36%), (2) Repair and Maintenance(1.34%), (3) Retail Trade(.94%), (4) Personal and Laundry Services(.86%), (5) Accommodation(.80%), (6) Information Services(.80%), (7) Wholesale Trade(.71%), (8) Government, Excluding Education (.54%), (9) Management of Companies and Enterprises(.51%).


The third category has 3 sectors with negative growth rates for 1990 to 2006 and 2006 to 2014. Negative growth rates mean fewer jobs and necessarily a declining share of non-farm total employment. Ordered by growth rate from highest to lowest or least negative to most negative they are (1) natural resources(-.70%), (2) manufacturing(-1.37%), and (3) Utilities(-1.86%).

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Background and Discussion by Sector

High Labor Growth Rates
Administrative Support & Waste Management Services
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Health Care Services
Construction
Food Service and Drinking Places
Education Services, Private & Public Combined
Non-Profit Organization Services
Real Estate and Rental Leasing
Transportation and Warehousing

Slow Labor Growth Rates
Finance and Insurance Services
Repair and Maintenance Services
Retail Trade
Personal and Laundry Services
Accommodation Services
Information Services
Wholesale Trade
Government, excluding education
Management of Enterprises

Negative Labor Growth Rates
Natural Resources
Manufacturing
Utilities

High Labor Growth Categories

1) Administrative Support & Waste Management Services

Combined administrative support and waste management had 8.374 million jobs in 2006 with a 6.1 percent growth rate. Establishments in this sector sell almost everything they do to other establishments and not to final consumers. Only about 4 percent of the jobs are in waste management and even though jobs there are growing they will only amount to 6 or 7 thousand more jobs a year. The other 96 percent of jobs are in administrative support, which has quite a smorgasbord of services. Include jobs in office administration and facilities support, employment services, but also business services like telephone call centers and document preparation, and others like travel and reservation services, security and investigation services, building and janitorial services. Employment services have the biggest share, nearly 45 percent of the total.

Administrative Support & Waste Management Services has the distinction of having the fastest growth rate for jobs in the 22 sectors: 3.78 percent. The forecasted growth rate from 1990 to 2014 is a more modest 3.51 percent with an expected annual increase of 275 thousand jobs per year. Because administrative and support services has high growth it has a growing share of America’s jobs. Check the forecast table to calculate an increase of 5.951 million jobs. The increase is the difference of 10.576 million jobs in 2014 and 4.625 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in administrative support had been the same as overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 1.754 million new jobs instead of 5.951 million. Taking the difference gives us 4.197 million new jobs that increase the share of administrative support jobs in non-farm employment. Many of these jobs are replacement jobs for declining manufacturing and 1.836 million of them are in temporary help services. back

2) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

Establishments in arts, entertainment and recreation had 1.926 million jobs in 2006, which is 1.4 percent of non-farm employment. The arts and entertainment parts of this sector has art and entertainment put on by theatre and dance companies, orchestras, music groups, sports teams, sports promoters, racetracks, and independent artists, writers, or performers. Include museums, zoos, nature parks, botanical gardens and historical sites where there is looking rather than live entertainment. The recreation part of this sector has recreation at amusement parks, arcades, gambling casinos, golf courses, ski resorts, marinas, fitness centers, sports centers, ice rinks, swimming pools, bowling alleys, billiard parlors, day camps, riding stables and a few more. The arts and entertainment part has a little over 522 thousand jobs; the recreation part 1.4 million. Fitness centers are by far the largest employer here with over 500 thousand jobs. Golf courses and country clubs are next with 344 thousand jobs in 2006. Casino gambling jobs do not include jobs at casino gambling hotels, those jobs are in accommodations. However, gambling as a drop in recreation has 137 thousand jobs and a higher growth rate than any other part of recreation, averaging above 9 percent a year starting in 1990.

Arts, entertainment and recreation services sector has fast growth from the forecast table, actually second fastest growth with an annual rate of 3.37 percent since 1990. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.225 million new jobs, which is the difference of 2.360 million jobs in 2014 and 1.133 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in arts, entertainment and recreation services equaled the growth rate for non-farm employment there would be only 430 thousand new jobs instead of 1.227 million. Taking the difference of 1.227 million from 430 thousand equals 797 thousand of the new jobs that increase the share of arts, entertainment and recreation jobs in non-farm employment. back


3) Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services had 7.371 million jobs in 2006 and 5.4 percent of non-farm jobs. It has “establishments that specialize in performing professional, scientific and technical activities for others.” That comes directly from the North American Industry Classification Manual. The manual goes on to explain that establishments in this sector use processes where human capital is the major input. “Establishments rely on employee skills and knowledge to deliver expertise to clients.” Computer system design and related services is the biggest of the service sectors here with almost 1.278 million jobs out of 7.371 million jobs reported in the forecast table. Legal services are next with about 1.173 million jobs followed by management and technical consulting services, accounting and related services, engineering services, scientific development and research services, advertising and related services, public relations services, architectural services, veterinary services, interior and graphic design services.

Most of the professional occupations that require specialized degree training have employment somewhere among these services. Include lawyers, engineers, architects, accountants, graphic designers, veterinarians. With research services in this sector there are also jobs for chemists, physicists, epidemiologists and a few more. Most of the services and the occupations that go with them continue to increase faster than the non-farm average. Because the manufacturing sector uses many engineers and manufacturing jobs are in decline, some of the growth in engineering jobs in this sector is net of losses in manufacturing.

Professional, Scientific and Technical services has the third highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 3.05 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 4.226 million new jobs, which is the difference of 8.783 million jobs in 2014 and 4.557 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in professional, scientific and technical services equaled the growth rate for non-farm employment jobs there would be only 1.728 million new jobs instead of 4.226 million. Taking the difference gives 2.498 million of the new jobs that increase the share of these jobs in non-farm employment. back

4) Health Care Services

Establishments in the health care have 14.9 million jobs in 2006, nearly 11 percent of non-farm employment. It has jobs divided among four health care sub-sectors: ambulatory care, hospital care, nursing and residential care and social assistance. The biggest share of the jobs, more than 35 percent, classify as ambulatory care in offices of physicians, outpatient care centers, lab services and home health services. Hospitals are next with nearly 30 percent of jobs although ambulatory health care continues to grow faster than hospital employment. Nursing and residential care have around 20 percent of jobs. Fourth and last, there is social assistance which has 2.3 million jobs. However, 806 thousand of these jobs are in child day care centers, which the North American Industry Classification Committee decided to put in the health care sector. Other establishments in social assistance have jobs in family assistance services, community, emergency, relief and rehabilitation services. The sub-sector employs many social workers and counselors.

Health care in all four sub-sectors has the fourth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 3.00 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate an increase of 8.280 million jobs, which is the difference of 17.575 million jobs in 2014 and 9.295 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in health care equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 3.525 million new jobs instead of 8.280 million. Taking the difference gives 4.755 million of the new jobs that increase the share of health care jobs in non-farm employment. back

5) Construction

Establishments in construction had 7.69 million jobs in 2006 with 5.9 percent of non-farm employment. Construction has jobs in three sub sectors, building construction, construction in civil engineering, especially highways, streets, bridges, utility and water-sewer systems and a third sub sector, specialty trade contractors. Building construction has 1.8 million jobs with a little over 1 million of the jobs in residential construction. Around 63 percent or 4.9 million of the jobs are in specialty trades, which are electric, plumbing, roofing, masonry and the building trades. These jobs support other construction but mostly in residential construction.

Construction has the fifth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 2.39 percent. It is the only sector in goods production that we can count on for new jobs. Check the forecast table to calculate 3.569 million new jobs, which is the difference of 8.834 million jobs in 2014 and 5.266 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in construction equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 1.997 million new jobs instead of 3.569 million. Taking the difference tells us 1.572 million of the new jobs increase the share of construction jobs in non-farm employment. back

6) Food Service and Drinking Places

Establishments primarily engaged in preparing food to order for immediate consumption go in this sector as full and limited service restaurants. They had 9.379 million jobs in 2006 with 6.9 percent of non-farm employment. Full and limited service restaurants are just one part of food services, which includes a long list of cafeterias, pizza delivery, snack bars, takeout, catering, ice cream parlors, and beverage bars. These are not all the jobs in restaurants just restaurants. Jobs at restaurants attached to hotels, motels or other accommodations are counted there. Accommodations, as you will see below, have only 1.8 million jobs so most of the restaurant jobs are here.

Food Service and Drinking places have the 6th highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 2.28 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 3.954 million new jobs, which is the difference of 10.493 million jobs in 2014 and 6.539 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in food services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 2.480 million new jobs instead of 3.954 million jobs. Taking the difference means 1.475 million of the new jobs increase the share of food service jobs in non-farm employment. back

7) Education Services, Private & Public Combined

Educational services had 13.149 million jobs in 2006 with 9.7 percent of non-farm employment. The job total has both public and private schools including colleges, universities and junior colleges. Local governments dominate education employment with the biggest block of education jobs, more than double private education. Also include trade schools and other specialty training in language, fine arts and sports. Other supporting educational services bring in jobs in testing, tutoring, and consulting.

Educational Services has the seventh highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 2.17 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 5.779 million new jobs, which is the difference of 15.099 million jobs in 2014 and 9.320 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in education services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 2.245 million new jobs instead of 5.779 million. Taking the difference gives us 3.534 million new jobs that increase the share of education service jobs in non-farm employment. back

8) Non-Profit Organization Services

Non-Profits had 2.900 million jobs in 2006 with 2.13 percent of non-farm employment. Non-profits have religion among other groups in Grant Making and Giving services, giving away money to worthy applicants, or Social Advocacy Organizations promoting causes like wildlife preservation and birth control, or Civic and Social Organizations like scouting, fraternal lodges, or social clubs promoting the civic and social interests of members, and finally Business, Professional, Labor, Political and Similar Organizations like the Chamber of Commerce, International Brotherhood of Teamsters and State and Federal Bar Associations. Include PAC’s here.

Non-Profit Organizations have the eighth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 1.94 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.265 million new jobs equal to the difference of 3.397 million jobs in 2014 and 2.132 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in non-profit services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 809 thousand new jobs instead of 1.265 million. Taking the difference tells us 456 thousand of the new jobs increase the share of non-profit service jobs in non-farm employment. back

9) Real Estate and Rental Leasing

Real estate and rental leasing had 2.180 million jobs in 2006 with 1.6 percent of non-farm employment. Establishments in real estate did not get its own sector in the North American Industry Classification System. Instead it is a sub-sector within a bigger sector that includes rental and leasing establishments that rent or lease cars, trucks, RV’s, appliances, formal ware, costume ware, videos, health equipment, commercial machinery or equipment, or just about anything you can imagine.

The real estate sub-sector has 1.5 million jobs where establishments sell, buy or rent real estate through agents or brokers but also all other establishments that rent, lease or management real estate for others. A small part of asset leasing has establishments that lease patents, trade marks and franchise agreements, but it has only 29 thousand jobs.

Real Estate and Rental Leasing have the ninth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 1.81 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 811 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 2.446 million jobs in 2014 and 1.635 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in real estate and rental leasing services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 620 thousand new jobs instead of 811 thousand. Taking the difference gives us 191 thousand new jobs that increase the share of real estate and rental leasing service jobs in non-farm employment. back

10) Transportation and Warehousing

Transportation and warehousing services had 4.465 million jobs in 2006 with 3.28 percent of non-farm employment. Establishments hauling freight and moving passengers in modal transportation have 2.6 million of the jobs as part of air, rail, water, pipeline, truck, bus, taxi, and limousines services. Truck transportation firms have 1.4 million of these jobs, more than half of modal transportation employment. Include transportation support services, couriers and messenger services and warehouse and storage firms, which have another 1.819 million jobs as part of the transportation sector. Support activities defy easy description, but employ 571 thousand in jobs providing services for port, terminal and harbor operations and airports with work in loading, unloading, navigation, logistics, packing, crating, and towing, but very little transporting.

Transportation and warehousing services have the tenth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 1.58 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.485 million new jobs, which is the difference of 4.961 million jobs in 2014 and 3.476 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in transportation and warehousing services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 1.318 million new jobs instead of 1.485 million. Taking the difference tells us 166 thousand of the new jobs will increase the share of transportation and warehousing services jobs in non-farm employment. back

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Slow Growth Categories

1) Finance and Insurance Services

Finance and insurance services had 6.183 million jobs in 2006 with 4.54 percent of non-farm employment. Finance and insurance has establishments that accept deposits and make loans. These were formerly known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but in the North American Industry Classification these and a few others like credit card issuers, consumer lenders, and real estate credit firms are known as Credit Intermediaries. Credit Intermediaries had 2.936 million jobs in 2006, or 47 percent of the total of 6.183 million finance and insurance jobs in 2006. Next are 817 thousand jobs in establishments that buy and sell someone else’s stocks and bonds for a fee or commission: stock brokers and investment bankers. Include 2.315 million jobs in a third sub sector: insurance carriers. Finally there are establishments that manage funds and trusts: pension funds, mutual funds, but with only 93 thousand jobs. Money is so complicated.

Finance and insurance has slow growth, but just .01 percent below the non-farm average from the forecast table with yearly average growth in jobs of 1.36 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.751 million new jobs, which is the difference of 6.730 million jobs in 2014 and 4.979 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in finance and insurance services equaled the growth rate for non-farm employment there would be 1.888 million new jobs instead of 1.791 million. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of finance and insurance services jobs. Finance and insurance needed 137 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

2) Repair and Maintenance Services

Establishments in repair and maintenance services had 1.248 million jobs in 2006, but the majority of jobs are repairing cars and trucks. America has nearly 900 thousand people fixing cars, or if you notice at the DMV they called them vehicles. That total includes 150 thousand employed at car washes along with jobs at repair shops, bump shops and auto glass replacement. Car crashes reduce our well-being but create jobs and production adding to the gross domestic product.

The rest of repair and maintenance has 361 thousand jobs at establishments fixing or maintaining commercial machinery and electronic equipment or fixing household goods. Almost 180 thousand fix commercial machinery and another 104 thousand fix electronic and electronics equipment, especially computers. Establishments doing household repairs for lawnmowers, appliances, shoe repair, watch repair, upholstery and a few more have around 78 thousand jobs.

Repair and maintenance services has slow growth but just a few hundredths below the non-farm average from the forecast table with yearly average growth in jobs of 1.34 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 439 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 1.448 million jobs in 2014 and 1.009 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in repair and maintenance services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment there would be 383 thousand new jobs instead of 439 thousand. Taking the difference gives us a gain of 56 thousand new jobs. Even though repair and maintenance has been growing just below the non-farm average between 1990 and 2006, its growth rate is forecast to be above the non-farm growth rate so it will gain a small share of non-farm jobs for 2014. back

3) Retail Trade

Retail trade had 15.321million jobs in 2006 with 11.25 percent of non-farm employment. Retail establishments sell goods to final consumers classified in 12 retail sub sectors. General merchandise stores have the most jobs, 2.9 million. General merchandise includes department stores, warehouse stores and super centers. Food and Beverages stores follow closely with 2.8 million jobs. Together they have 37 percent of retail jobs. Motor vehicle and parts dealers has third place with 1.9 million jobs. Among the remaining nine sub-sectors only Building Material and Garden Supply stores and Clothing Stores have more than a million jobs. Furniture and home furnishings, electronic and appliance stores, health and personal care stores, gasoline stations, sport, hobby and music stores, pet supply stores, and non-store retailers round out the sub sectors.

Retail trade has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .94 percent. Check the forecast table and calculate 3.706 million new jobs, which is the difference of 16.889 million jobs in 2014 and 13.183 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in retail trade equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment there would be 4.999 million new jobs instead of the 3.709 million. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of retail services jobs. Retail trade needed 1.293 million more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

4) Personal and Laundry Services

Personal and Laundry services had 1.3 million jobs in 2006, which was just below one percent of non-farm establishment employment. The personal services part has most of the jobs, almost a million. Barber shops and beauty salons have 475 of these jobs but the other jobs in other personal services include massage parlors, tattoo parlors, tanning salons, weight loss centers, death care, pet care services, photo finishing, parking lots, dating services, wedding planning, bail bonding and a few more, but you get the picture. Most of these personal services are growing faster than the non-farm average, especially parking lots and pet care. However, laundry services, which have dry cleaning, coin operated laundries and linen services have decreasing employment so the net increase keeps the total increase at modest rates.

Personal and Laundry services has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .86 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 273 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 1.396 million jobs in 2014 and 1.120 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in personal and laundry services equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 425 thousand new jobs instead of 273 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of personal and laundry service jobs. Personal and Laundry services needed 152 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

5) Accommodation Services

Establishments in accommodation had 1.834 million jobs in 2006. The accommodation in the accommodation and Food services sector has traveler accommodations, not residential accommodation. Include hotels, motels, bed and breakfast inns, casino hotels, RV parks and campgrounds. The NAICS committee decided to put economic activity and jobs for rooming and boarding houses here. Rooming and Boarding houses include dormitories, fraternity and sorority houses, even though rooms at these establishments amount to transient housing in between travel and residential living. Residential Advisor has 56 thousand jobs nationwide with lots of those jobs at college dorms and fraternity and sorority houses.

Accommodation has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .80 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 389 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 2.004 million jobs in 2014 and 1.615 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in accommodation services equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 613 thousand new jobs instead of 389 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of accommodation jobs. Accommodation services needed 224 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

6) Information Services

Information services had 3.054 million jobs in 2006, which is 2.24 percent of non-farm establishment employment. Information Services attempts to include all the establishments that produce, distribute or transmit information or cultural products. Establishments publishing books, magazines, newspapers, films, sound recordings or producing television and radio programming are included here so there are jobs as announcers, reporters, analysts, writers and editors. Film and sound recording establishments include jobs as producers, directors, actors, musicians and artists. Establishments that distribute and transmit information include a variety of telecommunications: phone service, cellular, paging, cable, satellite, Internet Service, web search firms, and libraries. These establishments tend to own, operate, and maintain facilities.

Information services has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .80 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 550 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 3.238 million jobs in 2014 and 2.688 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in information services equaled the rate of growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 1.019 million new jobs instead of 550 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of information services jobs. Information services needed 470 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

7) Wholesale Trade

Wholesale trade had 5.897 million jobs in 2006, which was 4.3 percent of non-farm employment. Wholesale establishments sell or arrange the sale of goods for resale, or sell or arrange the sale of raw materials or production supplies and equipment. Wholesale trade includes establishments that supply retail outlets, but wholesale jobs result from selling supplies, materials and equipment to industrial or construction firms and selling supplies, materials and equipment to offices, hospitals, and clinics.

Wholesale trade has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .71 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 975 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 6.244 million jobs in 2014 and 5.268 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in wholesale trade equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 1.998 million new jobs instead of 975 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of wholesale jobs. Wholesale trade needed 1.022 million more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

8) Government, excluding education

Government Service, excluding education had 11.757million jobs in 2006, which was 8.6 percent of non-farm employment. Government excluding education is mostly, although not entirely, jobs in public administration for the federal, state, and local government. Public administration includes office work for executive offices, legislative bodies, and judicial and corrections administration. Jobs for parks and recreation, museums, social services, public health and other things besides office work go into the total that equals 11.757 million jobs.

Government Service, excluding education has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .54 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.711 million new jobs, which is the difference of 12.493 million jobs in 2014 and 10.782 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in government service, excluding education equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 2.378 million new jobs instead of 1.711 million. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of government service, excluding education jobs. Government Service, excluding education needed 667 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

9) Management of Enterprises

Management of Enterprises had 1.809 million jobs in 2006, which was 1.3 percent of non-farm employment. Defining a management sector results from the emphasis on reporting data and information at the establishment level. A firm can have many establishments scattered around at different locations where some establishments within the larger firm might be just head offices or administrative offices. Other establishments might be doing the firm’s productive work with some management, but establishments primarily engaged in managing get their own sector. Over 90 percent of employment in this sector is in establishments that only administer, oversee or manage other establishments, or do the administrative work for establishments that actually do something like manufacture products or provide services. The remaining few percent of jobs in this sector are at holding companies that own the stocks of one or more other companies in order to control them.

Management of Enterprises has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .51 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 176 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 1.843 million jobs in 2014 and 1.667 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in management of enterprises equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 632 thousand new jobs instead of 176 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of management of enterprises jobs. Management of Enterprises needed 457 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

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Negative Labor Growth Rates

1) Natural Resources

Establishments in natural resources had 684 thousand jobs in 2006, down from 765 thousand in 1990. Natural resources includes logging and mining, where mining operations have oil and gas extraction, coal mining, metallic and nonmetallic ore mining. Establishments with jobs that provide support activities go here. Natural resources have only .5 percent of non-farm establishment employment in 2006.

Natural resources have job declines and negative growth from the forecast table with a yearly average rate of decline in jobs of -.69 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate a decline of 209 thousand jobs, which is the difference of 556 thousand jobs in 2014 and 765 thousand jobs in 1990. If job growth in natural resources equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 290 thousand new jobs instead of a decline of 209 thousand old jobs. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of natural resources jobs. Natural resources needed 499 thousand new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

2) Manufacturing

Establishments in manufacturing had 14.201 million jobs in 2006, which is 10.4 percent of non-farm establishment employment. Manufacturing in the North American Industry Classification System has establishments that do mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances or components into new products. Transform can be with power driven machinery or hand equipment. Those employed by the manufacturing establishment to do selling are also included. Materials, substances, or components transformed can be raw materials of agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying or the products of other manufacturers. Manufacturing is sub divided into 21 sub sectors based on the production equipment, processes of production and job skills with 10 of these sub sectors in durable goods and 11 in non-durable goods. Durable goods generally have a life expectancy of longer than one year.

Manufacturing has job declines and negative growth from the forecast table with a yearly average rate of decline in jobs of -1.37 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate the decline of 4.394 million jobs, which is the difference of 13.301 million jobs in 2014 and 17.695 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in manufacturing equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 6.710 million new jobs instead of a decline 4.394 million old jobs. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing needed 11.105 million new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

3) Utilities

Utility services has 2006 employment of 548 thousand, which is .4 percent of non-farm employment and down from 740 thousand in 1990. In the North American Industry Classification utility services includes electricity, natural gas, water and sewerage services. Electricity includes generation, transmission and distribution, but natural gas is just distribution and resale. Water and sewer systems can also include treatment and irrigation. Electricity employment makes up over 70 percent of this total, about 20 percent in natural gas and just fewer than 10 percent for water and sewers. It does not include waste removal services. They are included in administrative and support services.

Utility services have job declines and negative growth from the forecast table with a yearly average rate of decline in jobs of -1.86 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate a decline of 224 thousand jobs, which is the difference of 516 thousand jobs in 2014 and 740 thousand jobs in 1990. If job growth in utility services equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs from 1990 to 2014 there would be 281 thousand new jobs instead of a loss of 224 thousand old jobs. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of utility services jobs. Utility services needed 505 thousand new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

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Service jobs - Administrative and Support

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

This sector has two parts: the administrative and support part and the waste management and remediation part. Employment in the first part nearly doubled from 1990 to 2007 reaching 8.0 million in 2007, but dropped over a million jobs in the 2008-2010 recession years before recovering to 7.6 million in 2012. The waste management and remediation remains small with only 372.7 thousand jobs. Combined they are 8.03 million jobs in 2012.

Administrative and Support

In the NAICS documentation manual, administrative and support firms perform routine support activities for day-to-day operations of other businesses on a contract or fee basis. The definition does not tell us what companies in this sector actually do. The answer is lots of things. If I were going to work in this sector I would definitely pick a job in a travel agency. I can picture myself relaxing in a cheery office full of travel posters offering a witty patter of conversation describing sunny Caribbean tour sites. Pick your favorite! There are so many choices. Try a job in contracted office administration, facilities support services, employment placement, temporary help services, desktop publishing, word processing, telephone call centers, telephone answering services, telemarketing bureaus, copy centers, private mail centers, collection agencies, credit bureaus, repossession companies, court reporter companies, travel agencies, tour operators, convention bureau services, ticket services, investigation services, armored car services, security guards and patrol services, security systems companies, exterminating companies, pest control companies, janitorial service companies, landscaping companies, carpet and upholstery cleaning services, chimney sweep companies, packaging and labeling services, convention and trade show organizers, and a few more, but I am out of breath.

Administrative and Support establishments sell almost everything they do to other establishments on a contract or fee basis and not to final consumers, and they generally sell a combination of one or more support services. Travel agencies and some travel and tour companies are the only exception. Otherwise services in this sub sector support other firms by performing contracted activities with performance criteria carried out during a contract period. Establishment managers who are thinking of out sourcing a function like office administration are thinking of another firm taking over complicated and distracting financial planning, billing, record keeping or logistics that are not a part of their real business. Having a firm concentrate on a core business is a favorite selling point in outsourcing firms, an industry where outsource firms actively promote outsourcing as a good idea. Selling outsourcing to prospective clients requires a combination of convenience and cost saving.

Outsourcing of work reached a high of 8 million jobs in 2007 only to drop a million jobs in the recessionary years. Outsourcing office administration mentioned above continued to grow through the 2008-2009 recession generating 215.2 thousand new jobs between 1990 and 2012 at a growth rate triple the non-farm average. Establishments that outsource facilities support service provide operating staff to perform a combination of building services such as janitorial services, laundry, maintenance, security, and landscaping. Employment in facilities support services more than doubled to 125.8 thousand since 1990.

Employment in other support services lagged in the recession years, but started to recover in 2010. Telephone call centers including telemarketing service have 451.2 thousand jobs in 2012, an all time high and well above the 266 thousand jobs reported in 1990. Landscaping employment has 637.5 thousand jobs, which is down from its high of 682 thousand, but more than doubled the jobs from 1990. Collection agencies continue doing a booming business because employment continues to grow with 143.6 thousand jobs in 2012 compared to 68 thousand in 1990. Investigation and security services jobs reached a high of 818.4 thousand jobs in 2012 up 311.3 thousand since 1990.

Employment services have more instability. Employment service jobs have three sub sectors: employment placement agencies, temporary help services, and professional employer organizations. Their combined employment reached a high of 3.7 million in 2006, but dropped back to 3.15 million 2012 as part of cyclical decline from the recession.

The NAICS manual explains that employment placement services list employment vacancies and refer applicants. Temporary help establishments supply their employees to supplement the work force of a client, but the client must supervise their work. Professional employer organizations “typically acquire and lease back some or all of the employees of their clients and serve as the employer of the leased employees for payroll, benefits, and related purposes.”

A system of outsourcing employment generates a cycle of bidding for contracts for landscaping, security services, janitorial services and also with temporary help services bidding directly for available work. Custodians, for example, work for contracting firms that constantly bid new contracts. Contracts tend to be one to three years, but allow cancellation on 30 days notice. It is labor intensive work. Seventy five to eighty percent of total costs come from wage costs and the contractor with the low bid is likely to be the one that pays the lowest wage. The more rapid adjustment of labor to the ebb and tide of business may save business costs, but much of the savings appears to be more from lower wages and higher unemployment costs for both workers and the government than to productivity changes for outsourced work.

Waste Management and Remediation Services

The second part of this sector is simple. It is trash. We can be confidant people at waste management firms are not talkin’ trash, but otherwise they are collecting, hauling and dumping trash. Some of the trash is ordinary trash and some of the trash is hazardous trash. Firms also do trash disposal or trash disposal with treatment. Disposal is storing trash in a landfill, or burning trash in a combustor, or incinerator. Treatment is remediation, which is sorting for recycling, or cleanup of contaminated sites, soil or groundwater. Establishments in this sub sector do septic pumping or rent portable toilets. Employment in waste management and remediation services totaled 372.7 thousand in 2012, up from 229.4 thousand in 1990.

The occupations here are mostly driving; they tend to be outdoors and involve some measure of physical labor. Outside of management few jobs need college degree training. A little over 13 percent of jobs are truck drivers and equipment operators. Another 20 percent are refuse and recyclables collectors and hazardous material removal workers.

With a 115.3 million service jobs to divvy up, administrative support and waste management and remediation services employment gives us 8.01 million jobs, but that is only 6.0 percent of establishment employment. Administrative support and waste management and remediation service employment is growing faster than the national rate. We have to expect a relative increase in administrative support and waste management in national employment. We only have 4 sectors left to go, but 23.6 million service jobs left to fill.

Service Jobs - Trade and Rental Leasing

Trade and Rental and Leasing Services

Retail trade, wholesale trade and rental and leasing services are defined separately in NAICS with data reported in their own sub sector. Retail establishments sell goods to final consumers. Wholesale establishments sell or arrange the sale of goods for resale, or sell or arrange the sale of raw materials or production supplies and equipment. Rental establishments rent or lease cars, trucks, RV’s, appliances, formal ware, costume ware, videos, health equipment, commercial machinery or industrial equipment, or just about anything you can imagine.

Combined jobs for the three services equal 21.1 million in 2012, a combination of jobs as big as all government service. Retail has 14.87 million jobs spread among 12 sub sectors; wholesale 5.67 million. Jobs in rental and leasing are 510 thousand with automobile, truck and RV rentals accounting for 173.3 thousand of those jobs.

Combined wholesale and retail trade have growing employment but at a 22 year growth rate of .49 percent, below .91 percent rate for total employment, which causes a decreasing percentage of wholesale and retail jobs in total employment. Using computer technology in trade, especially for barcodes and inventory management increases labor productivity. Retail and wholesale sales volumes per work hour are up and sometimes at rates comparable to productivity in manufacturing. Higher productivity in trade limits job growth, but so far not enough to decrease employment like it has in manufacturing.

Job growth and productivity depends on the type of service. Jobs at gasoline stations have dropped 70 thousand since 1990 with 841 thousand jobs in 2012. Food and beverage store employment, which is almost 90 percent grocery store employment, has leveled off at 2.86 million, jobs about the same as 1990. Salesmanship is not important for these products.

However, at furniture stores, electronics stores and clothing stores sales depend more on salesmanship. Buyers may need to learn about available products and how they work, or the different product brands, or be told something fits right and looks great before they make up their mind. Explaining and selling take time and so more jobs are needed at furniture stores, electronic stores, and clothing stores.

For a slow growth sector some of the fastest retail job growth is coming at warehouse clubs and super centers and in used goods: consignment stores, Goodwill, the Salvation Army and flea markets. Employment at warehouse clubs and super centers is growing much faster than jobs at more specialized retail like clothing stores, home furnishing stores, appliance stores, paint stores, hardware stores. Job growth data suggests warehouse clubs and super centers are replacing smaller more specialized retail.

Growth in jobs selling used goods continued during the recession that raised used goods employment to 146.3 thousand jobs at an annual growth rate of 4.50 percent. Job growth at used car dealers averaged 3.36 percent a year since 1990 but only .2 percent at new car dealers, although new car dealers continue to have much larger employment.

Retail sales on Main Street or at the mall or shopping center support local employment because people do not drive long distances to shop. Even though many shop while traveling or on vacation, shopping at stores away from home has minimal effect on retail employment. In 2012 retail jobs have 11.1 percent of national establishment employment. For the last 50 years monthly retail employment averaged 11.26 percent of establishment employment. The low was 10.02 percent in 1956; the high was 12.21 percent in 1986, but now its 11.1 percent. Change comes slowly.

Employment data by state or metropolitan area tells the same story. The percent of retail jobs by state cluster tightly around the 11.25 percent average and the percent variation above and below that total is the smallest of any sector employment, usually less than a percent above or below. The best bet to forecast retail employment for a state is to take 11.25 percent of total establishment employment. Because retail jobs remain at roughly the same percentage of total employment the only way to have more retailing jobs is to have a bigger population to serve. For anyone in local government or the Chamber of Commerce who wants to boast local employment by luring in a big national retailer, the plan will not work. Before much time goes by the new retailer displaces existing retail jobs and its back to 11 or 12 percent.

Not many jobs outside of management need college degree skills in wholesale and retail trade or rental services. In wholesale sales representatives for scientific and technical products and sales engineers requires BA degree skills in the BLS skills taxonomy. Sales Engineer, also known as manufacturer’s agent, often requires an engineering degree to explain and sell a particular technical product or line of products. Sales representatives for technical products had almost 214 thousand jobs in 2012, sales engineer another 23.7 thousand.

In retail, 65 percent of pharmacists work in retail establishments, about 181 thousand jobs from drug stores to grocery stores. A few optometrists now work in retail as part of selling glasses in combination with opticians. Trade does have 88.2 thousand jobs in design: floral design, interior design, graphic design, and merchandise displayers.

Retail trade employs 93.5 percent of 4.06 million jobs as Retail Salesperson, which also has more jobs than any other American occupation; Another 1.1 million jobs are sales managers who manage area sales workers with slightly over 1 million of their jobs in trade.

Cashier holds second place with 3.31 million jobs and over 82 percent of those in trade. Cashiers jobs are not the same as retail salespersons. Cashiers run a cash register, take money and make change but they seldom do selling as the term describes the work of Retail Salesperson.

Electronic shopping over the Internet and electronic auctions are growing at 5.35 percent a year, a very rapid pasce, but still only 275.1 thousand jobs nationwide. Electronic shopping has the potential to break the link between retail jobs and the population it serves. To discourage electronic shopping mall designers and owners make sure malls have more than shopping; they have restaurants, fountains, benches, movie theatres, ice rinks and health clubs. Making shopping a pleasant social experience apparently works because there is little sign of any big change in America’s shopping habits.

If America takes up electronic shopping in a big way many will pay a visit to the unemployment office. Electronic shopping establishments need a higher percentage of Shipping, Receiving and Traffic Clerks and Customer Service Representatives, but precious few Retail Salespersons. Talking and selling creates the jobs and there is not much talking on the Internet.

With a 115.3 million service jobs to divvy up, trade services and rental and leasing services gives us 21.1 million jobs, which is the biggest share of jobs at 15.7 percent of establishment employment. Combining retail, wholesale, and rental and leasing jobs amounts to the jobs that support America’s shopping. Unfortunately, they have slow growth. These services are unique among services because they have such a high share of jobs, but their slow growth guarantees they will decline as a share of U.S. employment. America shops, but not enough to keep America employed. Americans must buy more services. We have 31.7 million service jobs left to fill. Give us service.

Service Jobs - Arts

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Services (revised fall 2024)

The arts, entertainment and recreation sector has firms and establishments producing and selling fun. There are three categories of fun.  In the first category, fun seekers are spectators who go to watch art and entertainment put on by theatre and dance companies, orchestras, music groups, sports teams, sports promoters, racetracks, and independent artists, writers, or performers. In the second category fun seekers are lookers who go to look at art and entertainment in museums, zoos, nature parks, botanical gardens and historical sites. The emphasis in both of these categories is on live art and entertainment.

In the third category fun seekers go to participate in recreation at amusement parks, arcades, gambling casinos, golf courses, ski resorts, marinas, fitness centers, sports centers, ice rinks, swimming pools, bowling alleys, billiard parlors, day camps, riding stables and a few more.

Possibly the people lifting weights and sweating out in fitness centers are not having fun, but otherwise the 2.518 million people employed here are producing fun, lots of fun. The arts and entertainment parts have 748.2 thousand jobs as of 2024.  Recreation jobs total 1.770 million, almost 70 percent of the jobs.

Among the participate jobs, fitness and recreation centers have the most jobs, 626.7 thousand, less than the 2019 pre-pandemic high of 661.4 thousand jobs. Jobs were only 274.7 thousand in 1990, but job growth here has been consistently high with an annual average growth of  2.58 percent for 33 years. These jobs make up an increasing share of total establishment employment. Golf courses are next with 406.8 thousand jobs, up from 159.3 thousand since 1990. All other amusements and  recreation are growing except employment at bowling alleys with 68.9 thousand jobs and employment in gambling casinos jumped from 33.7 thousand in 1990 to a high of 143.7 thousand jobs in 2007 but down from that high to 116.9 thousand jobs by 2024. Another 239.5 thousand work at casino hotels, which brings gambling employment to 387.3 thousand jobs by 2024.

The occupations in this sub sector have skills learned through practice and experience more than classroom education: athletes, actors, dancers, singers and musicians, for example. Nothing prevents any of the people holding these jobs from attending college but the emphasis is on specialized skills developed from long-term on the job training. A little over 16 percent of the jobs in arts, entertainment and recreation occupations, come in occupations that need college degrees in the Bureau of Labor Statistics skills taxonomy. The college degree total as of 2023 has 411.1 thousand of the 2.518 million job total in arts, entertainment and recreation. These occupations come mostly in management, finance and computing, but 130.1 thousand of arts, entertainment and recreation occupations qualify as college degree occupations.

All three of art, entertainment and recreation sub sectors have a variety of specialty occupations. In recreation, gambling has eight gaming occupations including gaming manager and first line supervisor of gambling service workers, gaming dealers, sports book writers and runners, gambling surveillance workers and gambling investigators, gambling change persons and booth cashiers, gambling cage workers, and gaming service workers, all other with 57.7 thousand jobs in the recreation sub sector and almost 171.6 thousand more mostly at casino hotels. Bureau of Labor Statistics discussion of gambling occupations warns their readers to be careful before thinking gambling jobs are “glamorous” jobs. Sure the “fun filled” atmosphere generates excitement, but work is long hours standing and there is noise from gambling machines and tobacco smoke from agitated gamblers. 

Exercise trainers and group fitness instructors alone have more jobs than gambling occupations with 199.5 thousand these jobs in the recreation sub sector out of 279.5 thousand jobs in the whole economy. Diet and exercise are now regular business transactions and a source of employment, even though both are very much do-it-yourself services. People can walk in a park or walk on a treadmill; one is free, one is not. People can eat less or pay for pills, powders, supplements, diet books, diet plans, counseling and weight watchers.

Art, design and entertainment occupations have entertainers, performers, coaches and athletes working in 184.8 thousand jobs, although many of these jobs are also in the film, recording and broadcasting industries. Jobs include producers and directors, actors, musicians and singers, dancers and choreographers. Art and Entertainment has almost all the jobs as professional athletes, but only 73.5 thousand jobs out of a total of 253.8 thousand jobs as coaches, scouts, umpires, referees and officials. A majority of coaches are paid positions at many schools and colleges where athletes are not considered employed.

Zoos and racetracks are part of art and entertainment where there are about 23.8 thousand jobs as animal trainer and animal care taker. Work in entertainment related occupations like ushers, lobby attendants, ticket takers, and locker room, coatroom, and dressing room attendants creates 43.3 thousand jobs. Nearly 25 thousand tour and travel guides work at museums and historic sites out of 46.7 thousand working in the entire economy.

With a 134.453 million jobs to divvy up art, entertainment and recreation employment gives us 2.518 million jobs and that is 1.61 percent of establishment employment, u .58 percent since 1990.  Arts, entertainment and recreation made steady job gains in the 1990’s, but did poorly in the 2002 and 2008-2010 recessions, but finished the 2000-2024 period with a gain of 730 thousand jobs. Job gains in good years tend to be offset by zero or negative gains in the bad years with the result that average job growth in this sub sector is too small to help much with America’s job requirements. In the United States where a job is a requirement America needs a steady flow of new jobs to meet its requirement, but there are only 59.948 million jobs left to fill. We still need service!

Service Jobs - Utilities

Utility Services (revised fall 2024)

Utility Services in the North American Industry Classification includes electricity, natural gas, water and sewerage services. Employment was 575.1 thousand by 2024 down from 1990 when it was 740 thousand. Electricity includes generation, transmission and distribution, but natural gas is just distribution and resale. Water and sewer systems can also include treatment and irrigation. Electricity employment makes up 69.7  percent of utility job totals, about 20 percent in natural gas and just fewer than 10 percent for water and sewers.

Jobs in utility services tend to be highly specialized with 160 thousand jobs in installation, maintenance and repair occupations. Electrical power line installers and repairers have 61.3 thousand jobs, the biggest occupation in utility service. Utility companies generally produce the services they sell so production occupations like power plant operator, gas plant operators, water and liquid waste treatment plant operators have 47 thousand of jobs in this sector.  Office and administrative support jobs have 14.3 percent of jobs including 8.4 thousand meter readers, which are down from over 16 thousand a decade ago.

Utility occupations like electrical power line installers and repairers require long term on-the-job training rather than bachelor’s degree training had 142.3 thousand jobs in 2023 while jobs needed bachelor’s degree training had 165.7 thousand jobs. Electrical and electronic engineers have 20.1 thousand of the jobs, but over 120 thousand of the jobs needing college degree training applies to managerial, finance, or computer occupations. The skilled jobs here pay relatively well. Too bad there are so few of them.

With a 134.543 million service jobs to divvy up, utility services gives us only 575.4 thousand jobs, which is only .37 percent of establishment employment. Utility services are too similar to manufacturing in that output and sales of these services are not declining but utility services employment is declining through productivity increases. America needs jobs but utility employment will be limited help. We have 62.466 million jobs left to go give us service.