Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Labor Line

September 2025_________________________ 

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

This month's job and employment summary data are below and this month's inflation data is below that. 

The latest blog entry The Trump Recession Watch


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The Establishment Job Report with data released September 5, 2025.

   Current Job and Employment Data 

Jobs

Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 22,000 to 159,539,000

Total Private Jobs up 38,000 to 135,972,000

Total Government Employment down 16,000 to 23,568,000 Note 

Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 216 thousand to 274,001,000

Civilian Labor Force up 436 thousand to 170,778,000

Employed up 288 thousand to 163,394,000

Employed Men up 539 thousand to 86,347,000

Employed Women down 252 thousand to 76,508,000

Unemployed up 148 thousand to 7,384,000

Not in the Labor Force down 220 thousand to 103,223,000

Unemployment Rate went up .1% to 4.3% 7,384/170,778

Labor Force Participation Rate went up .1% to 62.3%, or 170,778/274,001

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 2.9 percent for 2024. 

The CPI August report for the 12 months ending with July shows the 

CPI for All Items was up 2.7% 

CPI for Food and Beverages was up 2.8% 

CPI for Housing was up 3.9% 

CPI for Apparel was up 2.2% 

CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up/down 0.0% 

CPI for Medical Care was up 3.5% 

CPI for Recreation was up 2.4% 

CPI for Education was up 3.7% 

CPI for Communication was down 2.2% 

This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report

LIKE LAST MONTH, ONLY WORSE

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its September report for jobs in August. The civilian population increased by 216 thousand while 220 thousand others returned to the labor force looking for work. There were 288 thousand of that number that found employment. The remaining 148 thousand of them did not find work, and remained unemployed. The large increase in the unemployed and moderate increase in the employed combined to increase the unemployment rate .1% to 4.3%. The participation rate increased .1% to 62.3 percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 22 thousand for August. The increase was 63 thousand more jobs in the private service sector combined with a decrease of 25 thousand jobs from goods production. The total of 38 thousand jobs gained in the private sector combined with a(n) decrease of 16 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production decreased by 25 thousand jobs with job losses in all three subsectors. Natural resources dropped 6 thousand jobs, mostly in mining support jobs. In construction, heavy and engineering construction had 2.3 thousand new jobs, but jobs in residential specialty trade contractors and construction of buildings were both down leaving a decrease of 7 thousand construction jobs. Manufacturing lost a net of 12 thousand jobs. Durable goods employment dropped 19 thousand jobs with motor vehicle manufacturing down 14.5 thousand of the jobs; no durable goods manufacturing sub sectors did well. Non-durable goods production was up a net of 7 thousand jobs. Plastic and rubber product manufacturing had 4.3 thousand jobs and food processing had 3.1 thousand new jobs among other small gains and losses.

Government service employment decreased a net of 16 thousand jobs with the federal government employment down 15 thousand jobs. State government jobs were down 12 thousand while local government added 13 thousand jobs. State and local government jobs excluding education decreased a net 4.3 thousand; state public education was down 6.1 thousand jobs, local government education was up 9.2 thousand jobs. Private sector education lost 500 seasonally adjusted jobs, which brings the total of education to a net increase of 2.6 thousand jobs.

Health care took first place again for private service sector job gains with 47 thousand new jobs, down from last month and lower than normal increases. All four of the health care subsectors did have more jobs with ambulatory care adding 12.7 thousand jobs; hospitals added 8.8 thousand jobs; nursing and residential care were up 9.1 thousand jobs, a good month for nursing and residential care. Social assistance services added a net of 16.2 thousand jobs because individual and family services had 15.9 thousand new jobs offset by a decline of jobs in vocational rehabilitation. The growth rate for health care was down from last month to 2.40 percent, above the average of 2.23 percent per month of the last 15 years. For the last two months health care has had more than 100 percent of job totals; the second time in 28 years of Labor Line.

Trade, transportation and utilities had a net of 2 thousand new jobs. Wholesale trade dropped sharply by 11.7 thousand jobs, an ominous sign even though retail trade picked up 10.5 thousand jobs. In retail, warehouse clubs and general merchandise stores added 9.1 thousand jobs and clothing and clothing accessories added 6.2 thousand jobs, among other small retail job losses. Transportation added a net of 3.6 thousand; couriers and messengers added 3.7 thousand jobs but no other sub sector did well. Utilities lost 800 jobs.

Leisure and hospitality added 27.5 thousand jobs, modest but better than last month. Arts, entertainment and recreation had 14.3 thousand of the jobs with accommodations and restaurants adding 13.2 thousand more. Amusements, gambling and recreation had 12.7 thousand of these jobs. Restaurants had 11 thousand jobs, a small increase while accommodations added 2.2 thousand of the new jobs.

Professional and business services had yet another month of job losses, this month down 17 thousand jobs and a bigger loss than the last two months. The professional and technical services subsector was down 3.6 thousand jobs in a poor month; where management of companies had just 300 more jobs. The third sub sector, administrative and support services including waste management, lost 13.4 thousand jobs in another poor month for support services.

Among professional and technical services, management, scientific and technical consulting had 3 thousand new jobs. Otherwise computer systems design and related services lost 3.3 thousand jobs and no other professional services did well. Victims of the Trump onslaught, no doubt. Among administrative support services, services to buildings and dwellings were up 7.9 thousand jobs but offset by job losses in employment services and temporary help services, down 11.8 thousand jobs, a third month for these job losses. Business support services were down 4.4 thousand jobs.

Information services dropped 5 thousand jobs. Motion picture and sound recordings lost 7.6 thousand jobs, more than last month’s job gain. No other information sub sectors did well. Financial activities including real estate and rental and leasing services lost 3 thousand jobs, after last month’s bigger gains. Finance and insurance lost 4.7 thousand of the jobs. Insurance carriers were off 5.5 thousand jobs. The real estate sub sector added 2.9 thousand jobs offset with rental and leasing services, down by 1.6 thousand jobs. The category, other, had a net of 12 thousand new jobs: repair and maintenance services had 9.9 thousand new jobs, personal and laundry services added 4.9 thousand jobs. The non-profit associations sub sector lost 2.8 thousand jobs.

The economy added 22 thousand jobs for August, a poor month. Establishment employment in August was 159.540 million with an annual growth rate of just .17 percent, a fraction of what is necessary to sustain full employment. The total of new establishment jobs has not been this low since the pandemic. The increase in health care jobs exceeded the total of new jobs again this month; again, the job data for health care illustrates the folly of political attacks on health care. There were eight sub sectors with job losses and two more with only one to three thousand new jobs. Professional jobs outside of health care continue to decline. This month’s job total is 1.466 million above August a year ago and 3.119 million jobs above August two years ago. Both are lower this month than last. Lower interest will be unlikely to offset the depressing effect from tariffs and budget cuts. Nothing suggests private sector employment will improve while the Trump administration actively pursues depressing budget and tariff policies.

August Details 

Non Farm Total +22

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from July by 22 thousand jobs for a(n) August total of 159.540 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 22 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of +.17% The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning August 2024 was +.93%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning August 2020 was +2.48%; from 15 years ago beginning August 2010 it was +1.35%. The high five year growth rate derives from the low Pandemic employment. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs 

1. Natural Resources -6

Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining decreased 6 thousand from July with 609 thousand jobs in August. A decrease of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -11.71 percent.   Natural resource jobs were down 13 thousand from a year ago. Jobs in 2000 averaged around 600 thousand with little prospect for growth.  This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .4 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction -7

Construction jobs were down 7 thousand from July with 8.295 million jobs in August. A decrease of 7 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -1.01 percent.  Construction jobs are up 58 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 15 years is 2.75%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 5.2 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing -12

Manufacturing jobs were down 12 thousand from July with 12.722 million jobs in August. A decrease of 12 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -1.13 percent.  Manufacturing jobs were down for the last 12 months by 78 thousand. The growth rate for the last 15 years is +.64%. Manufacturing ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.0 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +2

Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment were up 2 thousand jobs from July with 29.082 million jobs in August. An increase of 2 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.08 percent. Jobs are up by 170 thousand for last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 15 years are +1.11 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.2 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -5

Information Services jobs were down 5 thousand from July with 2.926 million jobs in August.  (Note 2 below)  A decrease of 5 thousand jobs for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -2.05 percent. Jobs are down by 3 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 but has stayed close to 3.0 million in the last decade. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.8 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities -3

Financial Activities jobs were down by 3 thousand jobs from July to 9.260 million in August. A decrease of 3 thousand jobs for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.39 percent. Jobs are up 80 thousand for the last 12 months.  (Note 3 below) This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. The 15 year growth rate is +1.25 percent. Financial activities rank 8th of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business and Professional Services -17

Business and Professional Service jobs went down 17 thousand from July to 22.536 million in August. A decrease of 17 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.90 percent. Jobs are down 55 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 15 years was +1.99 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was 2nd in 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and third rank now with 14.2 percent of establishment employment. 

8. Education including public and private +3

Education jobs were up 3 thousand jobs from July at 14.846 million in August. An increase of 3 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.21 percent. These include public and private education. Jobs are up 115 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.62 percent. Education ranks 5th among 12 sectors with 9.3 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +47

Health care jobs were up 47 thousand from July to 23.454 million in August. An increase of 47 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.40 percent. Jobs are up 832 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6)  The health care long term 15-year growth rate has been +2.23 percent lately compared to +2.40 percent for this month’s jobs. Health care ranks 2nd of 12 with 14.5 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +28

Leisure and hospitality jobs were up 28 thousand from July to 17.050 million in August.  (note 7) An increase of 28 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.97 percent. Jobs are up 232 thousand for the last 12 months. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.7 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up to 7th from 4th in the pandemic decline.

11. Other +12

Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations were up 12 thousand from July to 6.050 million in August. An increase of 12 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.38 percent. Jobs are up 75 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 8) Other services had +.86 percent growth for the last 15 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.8 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education -19

Government service employment went down 19 thousand from July at 12.721 million jobs in August. A decrease of 19 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -1.82 percent. Jobs are up 54 thousand for the last 12 months.  (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly with a 15 year growth rate of +.36 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.0 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

Sector Notes__________________________


(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Trump, his District of Columbia Invasion, and the U.S. Constitution

 Trump, his District of Columbia Invasion, and the U.S. Constitution

Anyone following the news this August 2025 knows Trump has taken over the police force of the District of Columbia and sent in National Guard troops. He does have authority to do that although no reason exists for it. It is a completely different story for the states. Recall Trump claimed authority to control California National Guard troops and direct them and Federal Troops into Los Angeles without consulting California Governor Gavin Newsom. I have watched or read various media stories that report comments about it, or justifications for it, but I have not found a story that reports those parts of the Constitution that addresses what Trump has done and threatens to do. One of the parts would include Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution, which I quote exactly below.

The U.S. Constitution, Article IV, Section 4 – The United States shall guarantee to every state in the union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence.

Also include Article II as relevant. Article II, Section 2 makes the President “Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States and the militia of the several states if called into service of the United States;” If the United States is threatened with invasion or foreign attack the president is authorized to call out militia forces from some or all of the states to join in the defense of the United States. “Service of the United States” does not include domestic violence or a domestic disturbance separately identified in Article IV, Section 4. Service to the United States does not suggest authorizing the president to “federalize” state National Guard troops and use them in opposition to an elected governor against state residents.

State sovereignty, or states rights, were a major stumbling block to getting our Constitution ratified back in 1787. To get the Constitution ratified by the states the founding fathers had to make concessions to states rights advocates. The states were quite afraid an oppressive federal government would do exactly what Trump is doing, which is use military force to violate their independence and overwhelm them. Some parts of our Constitution are a little vague, but not Article IV, Section 4: the federal government can send troops upon request by state officials and only if they declare there is domestic violence they cannot control.

Article IV, Section 4 did not go far enough to convince states right advocates to ratify the Constitution. To get the constitution ratified it was necessary to include amendments later known as the Bill of Rights. The Second Amendment reads: A well- regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.

The gun rights advocates have quoted just the last half of the Second Amendment for so many decades they have all but made the first part disappear. The Second Amendment ratified as part of our Constitution had nothing to do with the private ownership of firearms. Our actual constitutional right to bear arms comes through the same constitutional right we have to drive a car, drink beer, wear a blue shirt or spit on the sidewalk. These are often known as unenumerated rights. For example, it has not been necessary to enumerate the right to drive a car such as “Driving a car, being necessary for the economy of a free state, the right of the people to drive a car shall not be infringed.” Gun rights are just like all our rights, which means Congress or the state legislatures can regulate them, which gun people work so hard to deny.

The legal case of DC v. Heller from June 26, 2008 vindicates this view. By a 5 to 4 vote the U.S. Supreme Court declared the DC gun regulation as too restrictive and therefore an unconstitutional violation of the Second Amendment. Justice Scalia, who wrote the opinion for the court, provided his views. His gun rights were the “rights of law-abiding, responsible citizens to use arms in defense of hearth and home.”

Justice John Paul Stevens reviewed the history of the Second Amendment in his DC v. Heller dissent. He wrote “The Second Amendment was adopted to protect the right of the people of each of the several States to maintain a well-regulated militia. It was a response to concerns raised during the ratification of the Constitution that the power of Congress to disarm the state militias and create a national standing army posed an intolerable threat to the sovereignty of the several States.”

Justice Stevens wrote further “Similarly, the words ‘the people’ in the Second Amendment refer back to the object announced in the Amendment’s preamble. They remind us that it is the collective action of individuals having a duty to serve in the militia that the text directly protects and, perhaps more importantly, that the ultimate purpose of the Amendment was to protect the States’ share of the divided sovereignty created by the Constitution.”

The Second Amendment remains just as it was in 1787. It provides constitutional authority for states to maintain and deploy militia troops in combat against other state militia or federal troops that might invade their state without their express Article IV, Section 4 approval. Our corporate media, the well-to-do and elected officials like Trump have successfully avoided mention of these state rights. For Trump to invade a state with unauthorized military forces brings a confrontation over state sovereignty and the Second Amendment rights for states to have military forces ready to repel them. Trump has authority to deploy the DC National Guard, but our state governors have a right to fight back with military force. Remember our Civil War and how it started; be suspicious Trump would like a repeat?