Monday, December 15, 2025

Labor Line

December 2025_________________________ 

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

This month's job and employment summary data are below and this month's inflation data is below that. 

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The BLS Establishment Job Report with data released December 16, 2025.

 Commentary From This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report Data

NOT A TERRIBLE JOBS REPORT, BUT POISED FOR MUCH WORSE

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published its December 16, 2025 report for jobs in October and November. The last report was from September. The civilian population increased by an average of 204 thousand for October and November with a 162 thousand increase in the labor force each month. Only 48 thousand of the increase found employment, while the remaining 114 thousand did not find work, but added to the unemployed. The large increase in the unemployed and moderate increase in the employed combined to increase the unemployment rate .1% to 4.6%. The participation rate increased .1% to 62.5 percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 64 thousand for November. The increase was 50 thousand more jobs in the private service sector combined with an increase of 19 thousand jobs from goods production. The total of 69 thousand jobs gained in the private sector combined with a(n) decrease of 5 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production increased by 19 thousand jobs. Natural resources dropped 4 thousand jobs and manufacturing dropped another 5 thousand jobs. Construction made up for these job losses with 28 thousand new jobs.  Construction of buildings added 8.5 thousand jobs and nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 18.7 thousand jobs partially offset job losses in residential specialty trade contractors. Heavy and engineering construction had 5 thousand new jobs to add to the total.

In Manufacturing durable goods employment dropped a net of 4 thousand jobs with motor vehicle parts manufacturing down 4.9 thousand of the jobs; electrical equipment manufacturing was up 2.2 thousand jobs but no durable goods manufacturing sub sectors did well. Non-durable goods production was down 1 thousand jobs. Plastic and rubber product manufacturing added 2 thousand jobs as did beverage, tobacco and leather products manufacturing but nearly all other nondurable goods manufacturing lost jobs.

Government service employment decreased a net of 5 thousand jobs with the federal government employment down 6 thousand jobs. State government jobs were up 3 thousand while local government dropped 2 thousand jobs. State and local government jobs excluding education decreased a net 1.3 thousand; state public education was down 800 jobs, local government education was up 2.8 thousand jobs. Private sector education added only 800 seasonally adjusted jobs, which brings the total of education to an increase of 2.8 thousand jobs.

Health care took first place again for private service sector job gains with 64 thousand new jobs, a decent but still modest increase. Notice the increase equals 100 percent of the total job increase. All four of the health care subsectors had more jobs with ambulatory care adding 24 thousand jobs; hospitals added 11.4 thousand jobs; nursing and residential care had an increase of 10.9 thousand jobs. Social assistance services added 17.7 thousand jobs with individual and family services adding 12.8 thousand of the new jobs. The growth rate for health care was up from last month to 3.26 percent, above the average of 2.25 percent per month of the last 15 years.

Professional and business services added a net 12 thousand jobs, an anemic increase but the first one in quite a while. The professional and technical services subsector was up 11.5 thousand jobs in a so-so month; management of companies had 2.9 thousand more jobs. The third sub sector, administrative and support services including waste management, lost 2.6 thousand jobs in another poor month for support services.

Among professional and technical services, architectural and engineering services added 5.4 thousand new jobs; management, scientific and technical consulting added a modest 2.1 thousand jobs. Otherwise, computer systems design and related services lost 3.2 thousand jobs and no other professional services did well. Among administrative support services, services to buildings and dwellings were up 2.9 thousand jobs but offset by job losses in employment services with temporary help services, down 5 thousand jobs, a fifth month for these job losses. Business support services were also down 2.7 thousand jobs.

Leisure and hospitality lost 11.8 thousand jobs, an unusual decline. Arts, entertainment and recreation lost a net 14.2 thousand of jobs with amusements, gambling and recreation down 15.2 thousand jobs. Accommodations lost 3.2 thousand jobs while restaurants picked up an anemic 5.6 thousand more jobs, much less than usual.

Trade, transportation and utilities had a net loss of 12.7 thousand jobs where wholesale and retail trade had a net job gain: wholesale down 2.2 thousand, retail up 6.2 thousand. Modal transportation had a net job increase of a few hundred jobs, but jobs as couriers and messengers were way down, off 17.9 thousand jobs. Utilities lost 200 jobs.

Information services lost 4 thousand jobs. The publishing industry lost 4.5 thousand jobs offset by 2 thousand new jobs in motion picture and sound recording industry but no other information sub sectors did well. Financial activities including real estate and rental and leasing services lost a net of 2 thousand jobs. Finance and insurance were down 5.8 thousand jobs mostly because insurance company employment was down 9.2 thousand jobs. The decrease was offset by securities and investment counseling with 2.8 thousand new jobs. The real estate sub sector added 3.2 thousand jobs with 600 more jobs in rental and leasing services. The category, other, had a net gain of 3 thousand new jobs: repair and maintenance services was down 3.2 thousand jobs while personal and laundry services was up 3.8 thousand jobs. The non-profit associations sub sector added 2.4 thousand jobs.

The economy added just 64 thousand jobs for November, it could have been worse given the battering from tariffs. Establishment employment in November was 159.552 million with an annual growth rate of just .48 percent, much too low to sustain full employment. While the November increase of 64 thousand jobs was positive the October numbers were not reported until this month; they show a decrease of 105 thousand jobs. Therefore, the current increase falls well below last month’s decline.

As already mentioned, health care this month equaled the total increase in establishment employment while majority of other sub sectors losing jobs just offset a minority of other sub sectors gaining jobs. The economy will fall into a much steeper decline if health care budget cuts actually go through. Professional jobs outside of health care had a small increase but not enough to end worries for professional employment. It is certain to conclude that the United States has no hope of maintaining adequate employment without supporting health care with government subsidies. This month’s job total is 610 thousand above November a year ago and 2.248 million jobs above November two years ago.  The 610 thousand is a number that should ring alarm bells.

December Details 

Jobs

Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 64,000 to 159,552,000

Total Private Jobs up 69,000 to 136,148,000

Total Government Employment down 5,000 to 23,404,000 Note 

Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 204 thousand to 274,633,000

Civilian Labor Force up 162 thousand to 171,571,000

Employed up 48 thousand to 163,741,000

Employed Men down 27 thousand to 86,597,000

Employed Women up 75 thousand to 77,144,000

Unemployed up 114 thousand to 7,831,000

Not in the Labor Force up 42 thousand to 103,061,000

Unemployment Rate went up .1% to 4.6% 7,831/171,571

Labor Force Participation Rate went up .1% to 62.5%, or 171,571/274,633

Summaries by Industry

Non Farm Total +64

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from October by 64 thousand jobs for a(n) November total of 159.552 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 64 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of +.48% The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning November 2024 was +.59%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning November 2020 was +2.24%; from 15 years ago beginning November 2010 it was +1.34%. The high five year growth rate derives from the low Pandemic employment. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs 

1. Natural Resources -4

Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining decreased 4 thousand from October with 608 thousand jobs in November. A decrease of 4 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -7.84 percent.   Natural resource jobs were down 17 thousand from a year ago. Jobs in 2000 averaged around 600 thousand with little prospect for growth.  This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .4 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +28

Construction jobs were up 28 thousand from October with 8.332 million jobs in November. An increase of 28 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.05 percent.  Construction jobs are up 58 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 15 years is 2.80%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 5.2 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing -5

Manufacturing jobs were down 5 thousand from October with 12.697 million jobs in November. A decrease of 5 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.47 percent.  Manufacturing jobs were down for the last 12 months by 73 thousand. The growth rate for the last 15 years is +.61%. Manufacturing ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.0 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility -12

Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment were down 12 thousand jobs from October with 29.059 million jobs in November. A decrease of 12 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.50 percent. Jobs are up by 107 thousand for last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 15 years are +1.08 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.2 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -4

Information Services jobs stayed the same from October with 2.915 million jobs in November.  (Note 2 below)  A decrease of 4 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -1.64 percent. Jobs are down by 4 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 but has stayed close to 3.0 million in the last decade. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.8 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities -2

Financial Activities jobs were down by 2 thousand jobs from October to 9.231 million in November. A decrease of 2 thousand jobs for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.26 percent. Jobs are up 37 thousand for the last 12 months.  (Note 3 below) This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. The 15 year growth rate is +1.23 percent. Financial activities rank 8th of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business and Professional Services +12

Business and Professional Service jobs went up 12 thousand from October to 22.534 million in November. An increase of 12 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.64 percent. Jobs are down 44 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 15 years was +1.92 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was 2nd in 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and third rank now with 14.2 percent of establishment employment. 

8. Education including public and private +3

Education jobs were up 3 thousand jobs from October at 14.838 million in November. An increase of 3 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.23 percent. These include public and private education. Jobs are up 55 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.61 percent. Education ranks 5th among 12 sectors with 9.3 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +64

Health care jobs were up 64 thousand from October to 23.634 million in November. An increase of 64 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.26 percent. Jobs are up 770 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6)  The health care long term 15-year growth rate has been +2.25 percent lately compared to +3.26 percent for this month’s jobs. Health care ranks 2nd of 12 with 14.5 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality -12

Leisure and hospitality jobs were down 12 thousand from October to 17.094 million in November.  (note 7) A decrease of 12 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.84 percent. Jobs are up 162 thousand for the last 12 months. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.7 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up to 7th from 4th in the pandemic decline.

11. Other +3

Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations were up 3 thousand from October to 6.055 million in November. An increase of 3 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.59 percent. Jobs are up 60 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 8) Other services had +.83 percent growth for the last 15 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.8 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education -7

Government service employment went down 7 thousand from October at 12.555 million jobs in November. A decrease of 7 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.70 percent. Jobs are down 171 thousand for the last 12 months.  (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly with a 15 year growth rate of +.34 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.0 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 2.9 percent for 2024. 

The CPI October report for the 12 months ending with November shows the 

CPI for All Items was up 3.0% 

CPI for Food and Beverages was up 3.0% 

CPI for Housing was up 3.9% 

CPI for Apparel was down .1% 

CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 1.7% 

CPI for Medical Care was up 3.3% 

CPI for Recreation was up 3.0% 

CPI for Education was up 3.1% 

CPI for Communication was down 1.7% 


Sector Notes__________________________


(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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Monday, December 1, 2025

Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and his Disastrous Choice to Run Again

Jake Tapper, & Alex Thompson, Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and his Disastrous Choice to Run Again, (New York: Penguin Press, 2025), ISBN 9798217060672, $32.00 

 I was given a copy of Original Sin and read it wondering what it could tell me of the Biden saga that I did not already know? We know Joe Biden was 82 for the 2024 presidential election and would be 86 at the end of a second term. How much more information did I need since I could see he had aged just looking at him on television and then he accepted a debate with Trump, which ended any doubt about another term given the blank pauses and fumbling speech. In the Author’s Note they tell readers “Our only agenda is to present the disturbing reality of what happened in the White House and the Democratic presidential campaign in 2023-2024, as told to us by approximately two hundred people, including lawmakers and White House and campaign insiders, . . .” 

 The book has 19 chapters and runs 314 pages and I can testify the authors did an impressive job organizing the material from all those interviews and writing a clearly worded narrative. The primary story they tell shows Joe Biden, his wife Jill and his loyal White House advisors unable to face the very real doubts of a second term; there was denial and a loss of objectivity but nothing Joe Biden did could be called a cover up, a term that connotes legal misconduct. Since presidents have to be visible, their family and advisors have no duty to offer any doubts they might have to the public; the public must expect to make up their own mind. 

The authors interviewed Democratic and Republican office holders, party officials, pollsters and other journalists, both necessary and appropriate, but they added related personal and family history to the primary story. I tried to connect the discussion of the Biden family troubles of sons Beau, and Hunter and daughter Ashley, but that discussion always felt tacked onto their stated purpose: “Our only agenda is to present what happened in the White House and the Democratic presidential campaign.” 

 I found it difficult to construe the loss of son Beau to cancer and Hunter’s legal missteps as part of President Biden’s Decline, or his decision to press on for a second term. The discussion of these matters feels especially callus and unnecessary given just the facts the authors provide. They explain “The Plea Deal.” Hunter would plead guilty to evading $200,000 in income taxes and illegal possession of a fire arm. Biden opponents howled their objections and the federal judge in the case, Maryellen Noreika, a Trump appointee, refused to accept the plea deal, dragging out the case further. 

As I recall President Biden promised to allow his appointed Attorney General, Merrick Garland, to go ahead and prosecute Hunters case as part of his general promise to avoid interfering with federal law enforcement, but that was before losing the 2024 election and listening to Trump make repeated threats to him and his family with claims the Biden’s were part of an “organized crime family.” Recognizing the harassment Trump would create for his family he used his pardon power to protect them at the last moments of his term. In doing so, he was defensive and suggested toxic politics had something to do with the outcome of the case and his need to give blanket pardons. For this decision, the author’s make sweeping condemnation; they quote the prosecutor characterizing the pardons as “gratuitous and wrong” and that Merrick Garland was “tremendously disappointed” and that “To many Democrats, this was another ignominious act by a president who repeatedly put the interests of his family ahead of those of this party and country.” These conclusions feel sanctimonious and hypocritical given Trump’s pardons of hundreds of the January 6 felons. To some of us Hunter Biden’s crimes feel trivial compared to assaulting the U.S. Capital and refusing to accept the 2020 election results. 

I struggle to find a purpose for writing the story of Joe Biden’s Decline. A four page conclusion chapter asks “What if a president is unable to discharge their duties but doesn’t recognize that fact?” The authors admit those close to President Biden were always ready “to attest to his ability to make sound decisions if on his own schedule.” There is a suggestion Congress could legally require the president’s physician to certify to Congress the president is fit to serve, but so far in U.S. history only death assures a president will be unfit for office; there is no mention that anyone in Congress has offered such legislation. The authors mention several other questionable presidents, but offer no solution to future presidents and evaluating their qualification for office. 

 If there was a lessen for the future in the Joe Biden case I could not find it in Original Sin. I make note that both authors have worked in corporate media and wonder if they could keep their jobs writing a similar book about Donald Trump? .