Friday, January 9, 2026

Labor Line

February 2026_________________________ 

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America’s job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

This month's job and employment summary data are below and this month's inflation data is below that. 

The latest blog entry The Trump Recession Watch


Click here for a review of the Blog author's new book The Fight Over Jobs, 1877-2024 The book is available for $19.99 as a special offer to bloggers from this site Buy the Book

The BLS Establishment Job Report with data released February 11, 2026.

 Commentary From This Month’s Establishment Jobs Press Report Data

NOT AS GOOD AS YOU AND CORPORATE MEDIA MIGHT THINK

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published its February report for jobs in January. Normally it would have been published on February 6 instead of February 11. Once upon a time presidents did not interfere with data collection. This month the increase in establishment employment of 130 thousand needs further explanation. Recall the December 2025 report came late on December 16, 2025 when it should be on the first Friday of the month and that this report filled in the two months of October and November data because of the shut down of the government. This February 11 report has revised data known as the benchmark data. Benchmark data adjusts the monthly sample data from the previous year with data from the unemployment compensation files, or Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages(QCEW).

The new data shows employment lower, or much lower, than first reported in the monthly reports. When Joe Biden left office the yearly increase in establishment employment was over a million new jobs. For January 2025 when he left office it was 1.236 million new jobs for the year starting January 2024. For January 2026 after Trump has been in office for a year the total increase comes to 359 thousand jobs.

For example, you might recall the August 2025 report showed only 22 thousand new jobs and so Trump went on TV to call that a fake report. Well, with the benchmark revisions the revised number was a decline of 70 thousand jobs, not an increase of 22 thousand. The October 2025 report was not published but instead October data had to be reported with the November data for an increase of 169 thousand jobs on December 16, 2025. The current February 11, 2026 revised report shows these two months with a loss of 99 thousand jobs. Jobs are not doing well and any report of satisfactory job growth is false. I report the monthly data in the discussion below, but this monthly report does not do justice to the true employment situation.

The Household survey would normally be revised in January but again troubles with government service have delayed revision. The Household report for February shows the civilian population increased by an estimated 166 thousand for January combined with 221 thousand new entrants into the labor force brought an increase of 387 thousand in the labor force. The 387 thousand total divides into a 528 thousand increase in the employed and a 141 thousand decrease in the unemployed. The large decrease in the unemployed and large increase in the employed combined to decrease the unemployment rate .1% to 4.3%. The participation rate increased .1% to 62.5 percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 130 thousand for January. The increase was 136 thousand more jobs in the private service sector combined with an increase of 36 thousand jobs from goods production. The total of 172 thousand jobs gained in the private sector combined with a(n) decrease of 42 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production increased by 36 thousand jobs with increases in all three subsectors. Natural resources dropped 2 thousand jobs but construction jobs increased 33 thousand where specialty trade contractors had 30.7 thousand of the jobs and 25.1 thousand of those jobs at nonresidential specialty trade contractors. Construction of buildings added 3.9 thousand jobs and heavy and engineering construction added .8 thousand new jobs.

Manufacturing added a net of 5 thousand jobs with durable goods employment adding 9 thousand of the jobs, while non-durable goods production did poorly with a decline of 4 thousand jobs. Among durable goods only transportation equipment managed to have a decent gain with 4.8 thousand new jobs; other durable goods manufacturing sub sectors had small increases or decreases in jobs. Among non-durable goods, paper manufacturing added 1.1 thousand jobs as the biggest gain of non durable sub sectors, but no non durable sub sectors did well

Government service employment decreased a net of 42 thousand jobs with the federal government employment down 34 thousand jobs. State government jobs were down 18 thousand offset by local government with 10 thousand more jobs. State and local government jobs excluding education decreased a net 600; state public education was down 7.3 thousand jobs, local government education was down a hundred jobs. Private sector education added 13.2 thousand jobs, an unusually large gain, which brings the total of education to an increase of 5.8 thousand seasonally adjusted jobs.

Health care took first place for private service sector job gains with 123.5 thousand new jobs, a bigger than normal increase and much bigger than recent months. All four of the health care subsectors had more jobs. Ambulatory care adding 50.3 thousand jobs; hospitals did well adding 18.3 thousand jobs and nursing and residential care had 13.3 thousand new jobs, also a bigger than normal increase. Social assistance services added 41.6 thousand jobs where individual and family services had 38.3 thousand of the social service jobs. The growth rate for health care was up from last month to 6.28 percent, well above the average of 2.27 percent per month of the last 15 years.

Professional and business services added a net 34 thousand jobs, a modest turn around from recent months. The professional and technical service sub sector was up 27.3 thousand jobs, in a good month; management of companies was off 2.5 thousand jobs. The third sub sector, administrative and support services including waste management, added another 10 thousand jobs, a decent month for business support services.

Among professional and technical services, architectural and engineering services added 4.6 thousand new jobs; legal services added 5.5 thousand jobs, an unusually large increase. Management, scientific and technical consulting had 5 thousand new jobs. Otherwise, computer systems design and related services did poorly again adding just 800 jobs. Among administrative support services, employment services added 14.1 thousand jobs with another 5.3 thousand new jobs in services to buildings and dwellings. Business support services and travel services lost a combined 9.8 thousand jobs.

Leisure and hospitality had an off month with a net of only a thousand new jobs. Arts, entertainment and recreation lost 15.6 thousand of the jobs with the performing arts and spectator sports sub sector dropping 16.2 thousand jobs offset by a few jobs at museums and historical sites. Accommodations lost 10.6 thousand jobs while restaurants offset the job losses with 27.8 thousand more jobs.

Trade, transportation and utilities had a net loss of 9.4 thousand jobs where wholesale and retail trade had a net job loss: wholesale down .4 thousand, retail up 1.2 thousand. Modal transportation had a net job loss of 2.7 thousand jobs, but jobs as couriers and messengers were off again by 2.4 thousand jobs with warehousing and storage also down with a loss of 6.1 thousand jobs. Utilities picked up a thousand jobs, a second month of increase.

Information services declined 12 thousand jobs with telecommunications down 15 thousand jobs, after last months increase. Motion picture and sound recording had 13.9 thousand new jobs offset by job losses in computing, data processing, web hosting and web search portals, libraries and archives. Financial activities including real estate and rental and leasing services dropped 22 thousand jobs. Finance and insurance was down 12.3 thousand jobs partially offset by securities and investment counseling with 3.1 thousand new jobs. The real estate sub sector was off 4.4 thousand jobs and rental and leasing services was down 5.3 thousand jobs. The category, other, had 7 thousand new jobs with personal and laundry services up 3.9 thousand jobs and non-profit associations sub sector adding 5.1 thousand jobs. Repair and maintenance services had an off month with a decline 2.2 thousand jobs.

The economy added 130 thousand jobs for January, not enough to keep up with population growth. Establishment employment in January was reported as 159.627 million with an annual growth rate of just .98 percent, too low to sustain full employment. The health care industry recovered from the previous months with this month’s increase of 123.5 thousand equals just over 98 percent of the total increase. Health care is the only reliable sector creating jobs. Other sectors continued the lack luster trends of previous months. This month’s job total is only 359 thousand above January a year ago and 1.595 million jobs above January two years ago.  The 359 thousand number is extremely low for a year of new jobs.  It contrasts with yearly increases were over a million during the Biden administration.

February Details 

Jobs

Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 130,000 to 159,627,000

Total Private Jobs up 172,000 to 135,326,000

Total Government Employment down 42,000 to 23,301,000 Note 

Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 166 thousand to 274,982,000

Civilian Labor Force up 387 thousand to 171,882,000

Employed up 528 thousand to 164,520,000

Employed Men up 155 thousand to 86,967,000

Employed Women up 373 thousand to 77,553,000

Unemployed down 141 thousand to 7,362,000

Not in the Labor Force down 221 thousand to 103,100,000

Unemployment Rate went down .1% to 4.3% 7,362/171,882

Labor Force Participation Rate went up .1% to 62.5%, or 171,882/274,982

Summaries by Industry

Non Farm Total +130

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from December by 130 thousand jobs for a(n) January total of 159.627 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 130 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of +.98% The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning January 2025 was +.23%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning January 2021 was +2.09%; from 15 years ago beginning January 2011 it was +1.29%. The higher five year growth rate derives from the low Pandemic employment. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000’s of jobs 

1. Natural Resources -2

Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining decreased 2 thousand from December with 603 thousand jobs in January. A decrease of 2 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -3.97 percent.   Natural resource jobs were down 19 thousand from a year ago. Jobs in 2000 averaged around 600 thousand with little prospect for growth.  This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .4 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +33

Construction jobs were up 33 thousand from December with 8.308 million jobs in January. An increase of 33 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.79 percent.  Construction jobs are up 44 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 15 years is 2.88%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 5.2 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +5

Manufacturing jobs were up 5 thousand from December with 12.590 million jobs in January. An increase of 5 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.48 percent.  Manufacturing jobs were down for the last 12 months by 83 thousand. The growth rate for the last 15 years is +.54%. Manufacturing ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.0 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility -9

Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment were down 9 thousand jobs from December with 28.600 million jobs in January. A decrease of 9 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.38 percent. Jobs are down by 195 thousand for last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 15 years are +.96 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.2 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -12

Information Services employment was down by 12 thousand jobs from December with 2.834 million jobs in January.  (Note 2 below)  A decrease of 12 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of –5.06 percent. Jobs are down by 43 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 but has stayed close to 3.0 million in the last decade. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.8 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities -22

Financial Activities jobs were down by 22 thousand jobs from December to 9.162 million in January. A decrease of 22 thousand jobs for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of –2.87 percent. Jobs are down by 25 thousand for the last 12 months.  (Note 3 below) This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. The 15 year growth rate is +1.18 percent. Financial activities rank 8th of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business and Professional Services +34

Business and Professional Service jobs went up 34 thousand from December to 22.440 million in January. An increase of 34 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.82 percent. Jobs are down 40 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 15 years was +1.85 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was 2nd in 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and third rank now with 14.2 percent of establishment employment. 

8. Education including public and private +6

Education jobs were up 6 thousand jobs from December at 14.885 million in January. An increase of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.47 percent. These include public and private education. Jobs are up 3 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.62 percent. Education ranks 5th among 12 sectors with 9.3 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +124

Health care jobs were up 124 thousand from December to 23.718 million in January. An increase of 124 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +6.28 percent. Jobs are up 758 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6)  The health care long term 15-year growth rate has been +2.27 percent lately compared to +6.28 percent for this month’s jobs. Health care ranks 2nd of 12 with 14.5 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +1

Leisure and hospitality jobs were up 1 thousand from December to 16.982 million in January.  (note 7) An increase of 1 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.07 percent. Jobs are up 150 thousand for the last 12 months. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.7 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up to 7th from 4th in the pandemic decline.

11. Other +7

Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations were up 7 thousand from December to 6.028 million in January. An increase of 7 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.40 percent. Jobs are up 53 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 8) Other services had +.83 percent growth for the last 15 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.8 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education -35

Government service employment went down 35 thousand from December at 12.477 million jobs in January. A decrease of 35 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of –3.32 percent. Jobs are down 243 thousand for the last 12 months.  (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly with a 15 year growth rate of +.31 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.0 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 2.9 percent for 2024. 

The CPI February report for the 12 months ending with January shows the 

CPI for All Items was up 2.4% 

CPI for Food and Beverages was up 2.8% 

CPI for Housing was up 3.4% 

CPI for Apparel was up 1.7% 

CPI for Transportation including gasoline was down 1.1% 

CPI for Medical Care was up 3.2% 

CPI for Recreation was up 2.5% 

CPI for Education was up 2.9% 

CPI for Communication was down 1.4% 

Sector Notes__________________________


(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

top

Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

top

Monday, January 5, 2026

Woodrow Wilson: The Light Withdrawn

Christopher Cox, Woodrow Wilson: The Light Withdrawn, (NY: Simon & Shuster, 2024), ISBN 978-1-6680-1078-5

This new biography of Woodrow Wilson gets its subtitle from the first line of the John Greenleaf Whittier poem “Ichabod.”

So Fallen! So lost! The light withdrawn

Which once he wore!

The Glory from his gray hairs gone

Forevermore!

Biographies of presidents typically emphasize their time in office and the political events they pursue, but this biography concentrates on racial and gender discrimination during Woodrow Wilson’s life and how he addressed them before and after he became president The book covers 495 pages with the narrative partitioned into four parts. Part I begins with a summary discussion of the early crusade against slavery and women’s suffrage movement before turning to Wilson’s 1856 birth, early life, education, a brief year practicing law, marriage and accepting faculty posts teaching at Bryn Mawr, Wesleyan University, and Princeton University; he accepted the Princeton Board’s offer to be their president in June 1902.

Other Wilson biographies write extensively of his legislative record: the Federal Reserve Act, Clayton Antitrust Act, Federal Trade Commission Act, and progressive income tax, but none of that appears in this Cox biography. Instead, the narrative through the book emphasizes the documented record of Wilson’s personal relations with family and friends and with university scholars and politicians, both his supporters and detractors. Beginning with his academic years he published books of history and politics in 1885, 1889, 1893, 1897, and 1902. Cox scoured these works and Wilson’s other writing, archival letters, relationships, and associations. The narrative returns repeatedly to the published record of his racial views and his decades long opposition to woman’s suffrage.

The chapters of Part I offer a sampling of Woodrow Wilson’s views during Reconstruction and the early Jim Crow south. He predicts the right to vote without regard to race would “make the ‘disintegration of southern society’ and the ‘irretrievable’ alienation of ‘the white men of the South,’ its ‘real leaders.’” In his History of the American People he explained “It is ‘the mere instinct of self-preservation’ that forced ‘the white men of the South’ to do everything within their power to restore white supremacy ‘by means fair or foul.’”  Wilson’s apologizes for the Ku Klux Klan admitting “the Klansmen ‘took the law into their own hands,’ but undertook ‘by intimidation what they were not allowed to attempt by the ballot.’” He concluded the Klan was “really ‘for the mere pleasure of association, for private amusement.’” Cox provides a thorough narrative of his discomfort and unlikely appointment to teach at Bryn Mawr, a women’s college. Bryn Mawr documents an early episode of a long trail of evidence documenting Wilson’s refusal to accept women as equals.

Part II offers a discussion of him as Princeton President, elected Governor of New Jersey and first term as president. His years in politics forced him to take positions and make decisions on race and woman’s suffrage rather than write or ventilate about them. Cox quotes Wilson as telling his gubernatorial campaign manager he was “definitely and irreconcilably opposed to woman suffrage” and that “woman’s place was in the home.” His writing and documented decisions find him opposed to admitting black men to Princeton, opposing unions, opposing immigrants and purging the federal government of black employees while arranging to have the racist film “Birth of a Nation” shown at the White House.

Available evidence permits Cox to give readers an idea of Wilson in his personal life. Hundreds of letters survive to and from his two wives, Ellen Axxon and Edith Galt, and a third relationship with Mary Peck Hulbert. In letters to Ellen, he wrote “Marriage alone was a woman’s ‘essential condition’ for the performance of her ‘proper duties.’” Readers learn Wilson leaves on vacations without Ellen such as one to Bermuda where he meets Mary Peck and starts an indeterminate relationship of eight years documented with 700 letters. We learn of the personal Wilson, a man of “immutable routines,” who enjoys taking afternoon drives and plays golf as part of his daily schedule, finishing 1,200 rounds of golf as president.

Part III, entitled Holding Back the Tide, covers December 1916 to December 1917, a period that energized the Women’s suffrage movement with intensified political pressure to secure national voting rights. Cox covers their campaign thoroughly. Readers meet many women, the groups they organize and the protest marches and demonstrations they conduct. During this period, Wilson reversed his pledge to keep America out of WWI. He prevailed on Congress to declare war to make the world “Safe for Democracy” while simultaneously demanding to silence opposition to American entry into WWI in a well-documented campaign of repression and censorship. During this period the war became an excuse for Wilson to repress and censor woman demonstrating for voting rights. Cox narrates Wilson’s deliberate use of arrest, intimidation and violence to end street protest that included periods of physical abuse in jails and forced feeding of hunger strikers.

Part IV has the remaining years of his second term. By this time women had the right to vote in 13 states, including New York, increasing the political risk to Democratic party opponents of voting. Then Republicans took over the House and Senate in the November 1918 election. When WWI ended November 11, Wilson insisted on going to Paris to negotiate the peace treaty and establish a League of Nations instead of staying home to confront domestic turmoil, especially passing a federal budget, inflation and violent race riots. Cox tells the remaining story of Wilson maneuvering within his administration and his posturing in the House and Senate in the political fight to secure voting rights for woman. Cox gives details of the Congressional debate and final votes in June 1919. Tennessee became the last state to ratify the Susan B. Anthony Amendment that finally became part of the U.S. Constitution August 18, 1920. The narrative ends here, or rather just stops.

Over many years I have read dozens of biographies of Presidents including Woodrow Wilson. None I know of leave out so much of their political record to focus on the man and the ethical principles that drive their decisions and their conduct as this biography. Any illusion that Woodrow Wilson was a confident, accepting and fair-minded gentleman disappears in this Cox biography. The glory from his gray hairs gone. Forevermore!