The Need for Job Experience

Many job seekers know the phrase “We’re looking for someone with more experience.” It might be true but there are reasons to be suspicious it’s an easy way to end an interview: an excuse.

A few years ago the Bureau of Labor Statistics expanded their classification of occupational education and training to include job experience in related occupations and on-the-job training, or on the job experience, in addition to their review of necessary high school or college degree skills. When job applicants learn they need experience they usually think of experience working in the same occupation rather than experience in another related occupation, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics defines experience in both.

Experience in a Related Occupation

In the new expanded classification survey employers rate the experience in a related occupation to be 1) more than 5 years, 2) 1 to 5 years, 3) less than a year, 4) none. Almost all managerial positions require experience in the related occupations they will manage. For example, financial managers need more than five years experience in finance. Advertising managers need 1 to 5 years experience in advertising. It follows that finance or advertising managers need experience in finance or advertising before they are ready to manage others. There are 6.3 million management jobs in 2012 and ninety-five percent of them require experience in their related occupations.

First line supervisors are an additional layer of management and job applicants are also expected to have prior experience doing the jobs they supervise. First line supervisors had just over 6 million jobs in 2012 including first line supervisors of office and administrative support workers with 1.3 million jobs and first line supervisors of retail workers with another 1.2 million jobs.

Excluding management and supervisory occupations some other occupations where employers want related experience include judges with experience as lawyers, management analysts with experience as managers, information security analysts, web developers and database administrators need experience in computer work, instructional coordinators need teaching experience, and fire and building inspectors need work in the field.

Including management and supervisory occupations 82 of 839 occupations with data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics need experience in related occupations, which is just 15 percent of America’s 130 million jobs in 2012.

Job Experience in the Same Occupation

Job applicants should differentiate demands for experience in a related occupation from the demand for experience in the same occupation. Job experience in an occupation that adds to qualifications is defined in 5 categories of on-the-job training or essential on the job experience: 1) internships, 2) apprenticeship programs and 3) long, 4) medium and 5) short term on-the-job training programs.

After allowing for jobs that need experience in a related occupation, there were 110.9 million jobs left in 2012, but only 86.5 million of them needed some type of on-the-job training or experience to be fully qualified. Of those 86.5 million left to consider 52.2 million need a bit of informal on the job training of a month or less. Remaining jobs include 29.1 million jobs with a formal apprenticeship program, or employer sponsored long term training programs of a year or more or medium term training of one to twelve months. Finally, 5.2 million of the jobs of 2012 need a period of internship or residency to be qualified.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on-the-job classifications shows the need for experience depends primarily on the level of formal education applicants bring to a job. In 2012 there were 399 occupations in the Standard Occupational Classification that required only high school or less than high school skills; 99 percent of the jobs in all but 3 of the occupations need previous experience for employers to be satisfied they are qualified.

These jobs are primarily in construction and production occupations along with selected office support, installation-maintenance-repair and transportation occupations. Some like carpenter, electrician, plumber, and machinist have apprenticeship or long term training needs; many machine setters, operators and tenders and assembly occupations in manufacturing require medium term on-the-job training. Customer service representative, office clerk and secretarial occupations require some on the job training or experience.
Without experience employers have a choice to pay more for qualified applicants or to incur the time and expense for on the job training to make someone fully qualified. Training expenses tend to be covered with lower entry wages.

As applicants apply for jobs that need more formal education the need for job experience goes down. There are 90 occupations that need one or two year post secondary awards or associates degrees, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 14.9 percent of these jobs in 35 of the 90 occupations need previous experience for employers to be satisfied they are qualified. Among the 35 occupations 18 have repairer, or installer, or both in their job title: electrical and electronic repairers, precision instrument repairers and so on. Another 8 have technician in their job title: audio and video equipment technicians, environmental science technicians and so on. Include firefighter, auto insurance adjuster, and desktop publishing.

There are 128 occupations that need BA degree training, only 11 percent of these jobs in 21 occupations need some long, medium or short term on the job training and experience. Actuaries, writers and editors, and interpreters and translators need long term experience after a BA degree. Employers usually expect financial examiners, credit counselors, insurance underwriters, and tax examiners to have, or to need, some on the job experience or training. Include public relations specialists from multi media and communications occupations and several specialized sales occupations that need some medium term on the job training.

The BA degree has 17 other occupations confined to architecture, public school teaching, and nursing specialties such as nurse practitioner that have required internships not included in the 21 occupations mentioned above. Internships draw a fine distinction between on-the-job training and education. For example, public school teachers typically do an internship as student teachers while they are still tuition paying students. Physicians do internships as paid interns and residents after they have finished medical school degrees.

Job applicants should be suspicious of anything called an internship unless it is required for an accredited degree or licensure. On some occasions internships have turned into a scheme to lure college students or recent college graduates into working for free, or for a minimal stipend. Abuses have occurred often enough that the Department of Labor has written rules to distinguish internships from what should be paid employment.

Unpaid interns should not be doing the recurring work of a business that would have to be done by a paid employee. It should be for a declared time period, but without fixed hours or the promise of a job, and only if there is a training benefit useful to all employers. Internships are not trial employment because employers are legally required to pay at least the minimum wage for employment.

Recent college graduates should be careful before accepting anything called an internship. Some companies have entry level paying jobs called internships because they end after a year without continuing employment, but normally internships are education not employment. Those with BA degree have skills for a job; internships mean delay and a dubious promise for the future.

Required internships in the Bureau of Labor Statistics listings apply only for those with BA or higher degrees and few apply outside of medicine and public school teaching. The 26 occupations that need MS degree skills do not have on the job training programs, only 12.4 percent of these jobs in 4 occupations need internships: all therapy and counseling occupations. There are no occupations that need PhD skills that require internships, or that have on the job training programs. Degrees generally substitute for experience.

Departing Words

The Bureau of Labor Statistics review of training and experience clearly establishes that experience is not as important as many employers say and many job applicants think. When the job add reads applicants should have at least 5 years experience, do not be intimidated. Know where experience counts and forge ahead to negotiate with the skills and experience you have. Doing the same job over and over for years does not necessarily add much to skills, if any. For occupations where experience really adds to qualifications the need for experience limits the pool of applicants and forces employers to pay higher salaries. Those who have the skills and confidence without the experience still have room to negotiate over wages and move to the front of the line. Remember employers want qualified applicants and skills count the most.

Mr. Boehner and the Debt Ceiling

The Congress has passed debt ceiling legislation for many years pandering to voters who worry debt is sin, or a symbol of excess, or brings economic collapse. As the economy grows debt grows creating a repeated cycle of debt ceiling votes. Taking a vote gives a minority of politicians an opportunity to make politically correct statements about the excesses of government and their noble efforts to limit the excess. Then the majority makes the only sensible decision and votes to raise the debt ceiling.

I have never heard a politician of either party try to explain the difference between Federal debt and all other types of debt, both public and private, even though at least some know the difference. Current threats to limit the debt and cause a default are not only irresponsible but unnecessary and put Mr. Boehner far out on a shaky limb.

Federal debt is unique among debt because the Federal government determines the money supply, always a human decision. In the United States money is nothing but a number held on double entry accounts. Coins and currency are assets to the non-banking public but a liability to the treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank. Personal and business bank accounts are assets to the banking public but liabilities to banks. Therefore, money is a non-interest bearing liability while federal debt is an interest bearing liability. In effect, money is non interest bear debt.

At any time and in any amount the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank can arrange to convert interest bearing debt to money, and allow payment of the government’s bills without default. They could pay off the entire federal debt in a day or two but they will not because it will increase inflation and their aim is to manage the economy in the best interests of everyone.

All previous presidents and the Congress have always played the debt ceiling game by the rules, which allowed everyone to max out on politics and then raise the ceiling. No one has questioned the authority of Congress to interfere with the constitutional requirement for the President to manage the government’s finances and pay the bills. The people who believe in debt ceilings want us to agree the Congress can pass legislation that prevents the President from doing duties spelled out in the constitution.

The President has whatever authority he needs to avoid default even if the Congress decides to be irresponsible and votes default. For Mr. Boehner to win the debt ceiling battle and push the government to default the President has to fail to do what he is able to do to stop it.

A Walmart Minimum Wage for the District of Columbia

The District of Columbia City Council recently passed the Large Retailer Accountability Act that the mayor still needs to sign. Retailers, who are part of a larger company with revenue over $1 billion per year and occupy more than 75,000 feet of retail space, will be expected to pay all employees at least $12.50 an hour. In effect, the City Council has decided Walmart should be required to pay better wages than the $8.25 minimum wage everyone else is required to pay.

Economic conditions in retail for the District of Columbia suggest possible surprises for the City Council. As of 2012 the District has only 19 thousand jobs in retail or 2.5 percent of total employment where all other states have 11 to 12 percent. The District is underserved in retail and ripe for expansion.

Even though the minimum wage is $8.25 an hour there are no jobs in the District with a median wage as low as $8.25 an hour. Nor does the Bureau of Labor Statistics wage report for the District show 25th percentile or 10th percentile wages as low as $8.25 an hour for any of 512 occupations reported for Washington DC.

The new law applies to all occupations, but will effectively apply to the two occupations that dominate retail: retail salesperson and cashier. National staffing suggests 60 to 65 percent of the jobs in large retail stores are one of these two occupations. The District of Columbia is an expensive place to live and an expensive place to commute into from suburban locations, which helps explain why the median wage for retail salespersons is already well above the minimum wage at $11.21 an hour. The median wage for cashiers is $10.38 an hour.

If Walmart opens three, up to six, stores in the District as they suggest they might it will be a significant employer of retail salespersons and cashiers. As of 2012, only 6,200 work as retail salespersons in the District and 6,900 work as cashiers. Large general merchandise stores or department stores and super centers can be expected to employ 200 or more per store. Such a large share of new hires in retail suggests they will have to offer better wages for the help they need.

Wages in the larger metropolitan area that includes Virginia and Maryland suburbs are only slightly lower at $10.57 an hour for retail salespersons and $9.56 an hour for cashiers. Given the expense and difficulty to commute into the District there is no reason to think suburban sources of labor will be any cheaper to hire for District store locations.

New Walmart stores usually displace other local retail stores, but the retail sector is so small in the District there might be room for Walmart and existing stores. If market wages were below the $8.25 an hour there would be a different story, but the prevailing markets for wages suggests the retail sector including Walmart should expect to pay $12.50 an hour, or close to it, because of markets not legislation.

Since Walmart officials know prevailing wages their opposition and threats to abandon the District suggest they always oppose minimum wages as a political decision. Defenders of the $12.50 an hour cite the need for a living wage, but ignore market conditions as though they are irrelevant. So far the public discussion of the $12.50 Walmart wage minimum remains typical: all politics and public relations.

Federal Taxes and Horizontal Equity

Taxes should be fair and horizontal equity defines one principle of tax fairness. It means economic equals should be taxed an equal amount. Horizontal equity applied to taxes on $50,000 of income assures all those who earn $50,000 of income pay the same tax.

Taxation that treats equals equally avoids giving preferences to different sources of income and avoids deductions and exclusions that do not apply equally to all. In practice, the characteristics that define equals vary some depending on personal opinion. For example, in federal taxation a disabled person over age 65 with $50,000 of income pays less tax than someone under age 65 without a disability. Some might ignore age and disability when they define economic equals; others might decide those differences justify unequal tax treatment.

In spite of the difficulty of definition horizontal equity provides a useful guide to consider for tax legislation. It encourages voluntary tax compliance and promotes economic equality by preventing a favored group from making economic gains solely through tax advantages.

In 2003 Congress and the President introduced a new violation of horizontal equity in the federal personal income tax. After 2002 dividend income does not equal wage income for federal taxation. A single taxpayer in 2002 paid $7,767 of federal income tax whether the income was dividend income or wage income. In 2003 a single taxpayer paid $7,360 tax on $50,000 of wage income, but only $3,490 on $50,000 of dividend income. Wage earners paid more than twice as much tax for the same income.

The disadvantage of wage income over dividend income remained a little over double until 2008. In 2008 a single taxpayer paid $6,606.25 tax on $50,000 of wage income, but only $1,275 on $50,000 of dividend income. Wage earners paid more than five times the tax for the same income.

Adjustments in tax brackets, the standard deduction, and the personal exemption increased the disparity after 2008 until by 2012 wage earners paid more than eight times more tax on $50,000 income. In 2012, a single taxpayer paid $6,117.50 tax on $50,000 of wage income, but the personal income tax was only $750 as dividend income.

The disparity increases for a married couple filing jointly even though a married couple with $50,000 of wages or dividend income pays less tax than a single tax payer. In 2012 couples filing a joint return paid no tax on $50,000 of dividend income, but $3,705 on wage income. If both earn wage income of $50,000 they pay $12,185 in federal income tax, but $100,000 of dividend income pays only $1,470 of tax.

The burden of higher taxes on wages falls heavily on younger high school and college graduates since they are least likely to have had time or funds to invest in dividend earning stocks. The difference of the higher taxes on $50,000 of wages over dividends put into an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) to earn 3 percent annual interest between 2003 and 2012 comes to $53,804.01. For the struggling college graduate living at home it is the capitalized value of the tax system’s contribution to income inequality.

There are other violations of horizontal equity in federal taxation. The treatment of home ownership allows deductions for real estate taxes and home mortgage interest that assure unequal taxes for renters with the same income. Encouraging home ownership with tax deductions illustrates how Congress uses tax policy to encourage or reward activities that reflect America’s social and political values: home ownership is a good thing.

Taxing work at much higher rates than dividends and capital gains suggests a darker side of tax policy. A higher tax on wages discourages work at best, but suggests a declining respect for the wage earning working class. I do not expect an official press announcement to that effect, but as the ol’saw goes, actions speak louder than words.

The Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail And Some Don’t” (NY: Penguin Press, 2012), 454 pages.

Nate Silver gained national attention with a forecasting system he developed in 2003 called PECOTA. He used baseball data to forecast the performance of major league baseball players. It was very successful and the attention he got allowed him the time and money to expand his interests into other areas and write us a thoughtful and reflective book on forecasting.

The Signal and the Noise is a book for people who like data and the possibilities for using it in the latest information revolution brought on by cheap and powerful computers. In the Introduction Silver tells a precautionary tale from the first information revolution that came in 1440 with the printing press. Before the printing press knowledge was lost without some way to store it; after the printing press knowledge could be stored but ideas could also be circulated to make arguments to the masses and promote controversies like Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses. The printing and distribution of 300 thousand copies brought centuries of religious warfare.

Silver uses the introduction to make similar contrasts and set up a philosophy of forecasting. Forecasting implies planning with uncertainty that needs prudence, wisdom and industriousness along with a dose of humility. Silver thinks of forecasting as an on-going process of revision where the risk of failure is always present but the possibility of progress makes it worth the trouble.

The book has 13 chapters. The first chapter titled “A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction” describes what went wrong with the predictions for the recent stock market and housing bubbles. Then it is on to six more chapters on prediction for political polls, baseball, weather, earthquakes, economic forecasting and swine flu.

The topics all have a random and unpredictable element for something we would like to predict in advance. Silver gives readers some historical background, some basic theory or science where it’s relevant and then an assessment of the forecasting record: weather forecasting, better, earthquake forecasting, no progress, and so on. Each chapter suggests a common principle or two of success or failure that turns into a general theory and practice of forecasting by the end of the book.

Chapter 8 introduces Bayesian statistical inference in a descriptive form to be applied to six more topics of prediction: gambling, chess, poker, stock prices, greenhouse effects and terrorism. Bayesian inference is a branch of statistics that uses prior probability to make a new probability estimate, the posterior probability. Silver tries to convince readers to think of Bayes as a procedural method that combines new evidence with prior beliefs in a repeated process of revision.

Given the variety of topics from technology and the social and physical sciences readers will prefer some topics over others. I spent more time on the economics chapters. In Chapter 6 Silver does what forecasters hope no one will do: he goes back to check and compare old forecasts. Most are way off but being a labor forecaster I appreciate Silver’s precautions: correlation does not mean causation, explanatory variables change frequently, never throw out data, tell a story using credible economic reasoning.

I especially liked the comments he used of Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman-Sachs. His correct forecast of the 2007 financial collapse resulted from looking at mortgage data and evaluating the size of the leveraged mortgage market and the risk of default from unqualified buyers. At page 196 Silver writes “Hatzius refers to this chain of cause and effect as a ‘story.’ It is a story about the economy – and although it might be a data-driven story, it is one grounded in the real world.”

Chapter 11 takes a close look at the age old question: Can you make money predicting stock prices? Those who believe in markets always answer no, but Silver uses the volumes of stock data to do a variety of fun experiments comparing strategies - buy and hold, manic momentum and a few more – before reaching that conclusion.

The Signal and the Noise is a very readable statistics book with good graphics, thorough documentation and source notes. I would never have predicted publication of a general audience book with so much detail but as I finished reading I decided the volume of data on the Internet promotes a wider interest along with wider access. The growing combination of access and interest make it a timely book that suggests a structure and philosophy for people who want to pursue their own interests and separate the signal from the noise.

Inflation and Wages for 2006 to 2012

News of college graduates struggling to pay student loans draws attention to wages. College graduates who cannot find jobs using their college degree skills add to the pool of labor looking for already low wage jobs, potentially lowering wages and buying power even more.

Wages need to keep up with inflation to assure Americans can buy what they produce and keep themselves employed. In practice comparing wages over time requires adjusting wages for inflation with the Consumer Price Index to compare buying power, or real wages. For example, the median wage of Accountants and Auditors was $55,650 in 2006, but to keep up with inflation and have the same buying power in 2012 median wages would have to be $62,188. Instead they were $63,550, a 2.19 percent increase in real wages over the six year period. Data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Survey, which reports wages for 22 occupational categories and 829 occupations. The self employed are not included here.

Accountants and auditors are the ideal because jobs are up; averaging a little over six thousand new jobs a year with wages up faster than inflation. The outcome for retail salesperson and cashier was the opposite: jobs and real wages declined. The median wage of retail salespersons was $19,760 in 2006, but to keep up with inflation the 2012 median wage needed to be $22,494. Instead it was $21,110, a 6.15 percent decrease in real wages.

The median wage of cashier was $16,810 in 2006, but to keep up with inflation in 2012 median wages needed to be $19,136. Instead they were $18,970, a .87 percent decrease in real wages. Retail salesperson remains America’s biggest occupation with 4.3 million jobs but jobs keep declining; cashier continues to be the second largest occupation with 3.3 million jobs, but also with declining employment.

Retail salesperson and cashier are two of 388 occupations I can find that did not keep up with inflation between 2006 and 2012. These 388 occupations employed 72.5 million in 2006, but only 69.4 million in 2012. Because total employment is down between 2006 and 2012 only a little over 61 million show higher real wages in 2012. I used 2006 as the last full year before the housing bubble and then the recession, but other years could show better or worse results compared to inflation.

The wage data applies to jobs at establishments at the time of the survey and not to people’s wages or income, which are part of another survey. Because jobs turnover, some of the people in low wage occupations in 2006 may well have moved into higher skilled and higher wage occupations by 2012. Therefore, the data allow conclusions about wage inequality but limited conclusions about income inequality.

The results and selected details outlined below suggest two broad statements about wages for the six year period. First, the highest wage occupations in 2006 in upper level management, most of finance and professional occupations have real wage gains by 2012, while the lowest wage occupations in 2006 were the most likely to have lower real wages in 2012. Second, the real wage gains of occupations with wage gains had modest gains, less than one percent a year in a majority of cases. In the United States, working for wages is a tough way to make a living.


Selected Details by Occupational Category-----------------------------

Managerial occupations and financial occupations had the ideal with more jobs and a composite of wages for both occupational categories showing individual occupations mostly keeping up with inflation or with a percent or two increase in real wages. There are exceptions. Managerial occupations had wage gains above inflation for 27 of 36 occupations. General operations managers, food service managers, accommodations managers and construction managers were exceptions. Financial occupations had real wage gains in 24 of 33 occupations. Exceptions included personal financial advisors and real estate appraisers, both down.

Professional occupations did well compared to inflation, although generally a modest 1 to 3 percent increase in real wages for computing and mathematics occupations. Computer programmers are an exception, down slightly. Real wages were down for architects and landscape architects and up for 16 of 18 engineering specialties. Both lawyers and paralegals show a 2.5 to 4 percent decline in real wages. More jobs in legal services and lower real wages suggest the supply is out running demand in law.

Education, training and library occupations had job growth and higher real wages for 46 of 65 occupations in education, training and library. College teaching had higher real wages with some exceptions for professors of education, foreign languages, agricultural and biological sciences. Graduate assistants also had falling real wages. Teaching positions in the public schools had job losses in these years but real wages were up 1 to 3 percent for both elementary and secondary teaching with exceptions in some vocational and special education positions. Librarian lost jobs and buying power to inflation.

Health care occupations had job growth and 45 of 60 occupations with higher real wages. Licensed physicians, pharmacists, therapists, technicians and technologists did well against inflation but there are notable exceptions. Median wages for chiropractors, podiatrists, optometrists, opticians and dentists did not keep up with inflation. Dentists in general practice have high wages, but to keep up with inflation their median wage would need to be $150,421 in 2012. Instead it was $145,240, a -3.44 percent decrease in real wages for the six years. Dental hygienist also lost buying power to inflation.

Registered nurses have 2.6 million jobs, the most in health care and the fifth largest United States occupation. Median wages kept up with inflation, but just barely, rising by .41 percent to $65,470 in 2012. Health care aides and assistants lost buying power even though they are already low paid occupations. For example, nurses aides needed a 2012 wage of $25,248 to keep up with inflation, but it was $24,420, a 3.28 percent decline from 2006.

Home health aides, medical assistants, occupational therapy aides, physical therapy aides, pharmacy aides also lost buying power. The low paid health care occupations have declining real wages and increasing employment suggesting a large increase in the supply of people flooding into low wage jobs because they can not find anything else.

Protective service occupations, food preparation and serving related occupations, personal care and service occupations had more jobs in 2012 than 2006, but 16 of 22 occupations in protective services had lower real wages. Occupations as firefighters, correctional officers and jailors, bailiffs, detectives and security guards along with their supervisory staff had falling real wages. Security guards have over a million jobs, but median wages needed to be$24,508 in 2012 to keep with inflation. Instead they were $23,970, a 2.2 percent decrease in real wages.

Food preparation and serving related occupations had a mix where 10 of 18 occupations with higher real wages along with more jobs. Fast food cooks had the lowest median wage of $15,410 in 2006. Their wages were up more than inflation but they remain the lowest paid job in food services with 2012 median wages of only $18,410. All other categories of restaurant, cafeteria, and even private household cooks have declining real wages. Median wages for waiters, waitresses and combined food preparation and serving workers did better, up more than inflation by 2 to 9 percent, but still only in the low twenties for wages.

Personal care and service occupations had more jobs but lost buying power to inflation in 21 of 33 occupations. Non-farm animal caretakers – typically dog walking services, ushers, lobby attendants, ticket takers, amusement park and recreation workers, barbers and hairdressers, child care workers, personal care aides, recreation workers, and residential advisors had combined 2012 employment of almost 3 million jobs and all with declining real wages.

There were eight more occupational categories with declining employment and generally declining real wages.

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations had declining real wages in 8 of 10 occupations; janitors and cleaners, maids and housekeeping cleaners, landscaping and grounds maintenance and their supervisory staff among them. Janitors and cleaners have over 2 million jobs, but needed median wages at least $22,687 to keep up with inflation by 2012. Instead they were $22,320, a 1.62 percent decline.

Sales occupations had 17 of 22 occupations with declining real wages including salespersons and cashiers previously mentioned and parts salespersons, advertising, insurance, securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents, real estate brokers and agents and telemarketers.

Office and Administrative support occupations had a few bright spots, but 29 of 55 occupations had declining real wages. Financial support occupations like bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks fared the best with 1 to 2 percent gains in real wages. However, communications operators for directory assistance, long distance, call center and answering services have lower real wages and lower dollar wages. Customer service representatives have over two million jobs, but their 2006 median wage of $28,330 needed to be $32,249 in 2012 to keep up with inflation. Instead it was $30,580, a 5.18 percent decrease in real wages. Receptionists, legal secretaries, desktop publishers, and a selection of shipping, receiving and order clerks had falling real wages between 2006 and 2012.

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations had fewer jobs and declining real wages in 7 of 14 occupations. Farm workers and crop, nursery and greenhouse laborers were all jobs with declining real wages along with most of logging operations jobs.

Construction occupations did badly with 29 of 59 occupations losing buying to inflation and all the skilled trades like masons, carpenters, drywall installers showing lower real wages and some also lower dollar wages.

Repair and installation occupations had 2 to 6 percent real declines for 33 of 52 individual occupations including automotive and vehicle repair occupations, home appliance repair, telecommunications repair and a few more.

Production occupations had declining employment and 61 of 115 occupations had lower real wages. Team assemblers have 1.2 million jobs, the biggest production occupation. Median wages kept up with inflation, but just barely, rising by .38 percent to $27,640 in 2012. Otherwise assembly and fabrication occupations like electrical and electronic assemblers, engine and machine assemblers had declining real wages from 2006 to 2012.

Other production occupations with declining real wages were in metal and plastic work for jobs as machinists, tool and die makers, machine operators for cutting, grinding, drilling, and buffing; in food processing for jobs as bakers, meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers, slaughterers and meat packers; in apparel and finishing jobs as sewers, upholstery and textile machine operators.

Transportation and moving occupations had declining employment and 28 of 52 occupations with falling real wages. Hand laborers and freight, stock, and material movers have almost 2.4 million jobs, but their 2006 median wage of $21,220 needed to be $24,156 in 2012 to keep up with inflation. Instead it was $23,890, a 1.1 percent decrease in real wages.

Airline pilots and flight attendants, traffic controllers, locomotive engineers, most railroad jobs, and many driving jobs including heavy and tractor trailer drivers, industrial truck and tractor operators and school bus drivers had declining real wages. Pilots, copilots, and flight engineers had median wages of $141,090 in 2006, but to keep up with inflation and have the same buying power in 2012 median wages would have to be $160,200. Instead they were $114,200, a 28.90 percent decrease.

Flight attendants had median wages of $53,780 in 2006, but to keep up with inflation and have the same buying power in 2012 median wages would have to be $61,220. Instead they were $37,240, a 39.17 percent decrease, the biggest decrease I can find among United States occupations.

Computer Support Specialists

Computer Support Specialists have two occupations

Standard Occupational Classification #15-1151 Computer User Support Specialists
Standard Occupational Classification #15-1152 Computer Network Support Specialists

SOC Definition for #15-1151-- Provide technical assistance to computer users. Answer questions or resolve computer problems for clients in person, or via telephone or electronically. May provide assistance concerning the use of computer hardware and software, including printing, installation, word processing, electronic mail, and operating systems.

Examples of other common names in use -- Computer Customer Support Specialist, Help Desk Representative, Help Desk Specialist, Desktop Support Specialist, End-User Support Specialist, Help Desk Analyst, Help Desk Technician, PC Support Specialist.

SOC Definition for #15-1152-- Analyze, test, troubleshoot, and evaluate existing network systems, such as local area network (LAN), wide area network (WAN), and Internet systems or a segment of a network system. Perform network maintenance to ensure networks operate correctly with minimal interruption.

Examples of other common names in use -- Network Diagnostic Support Specialist, Network Support Technician, Network Technician; excludes Network and Computer Systems Administrators #15-1142 and Computer Network Architects #15-1143.

National 2012 employment as Computer User Support Specialists was 525,630 and for Computer Network Support Specialists were 167,980 for a combined total 693,610. Both jobs were reported together as a combination in the years from 2000 to 2011. The combined category had growth of 14 thousand new jobs a year since 2000 at growth rates well above the national average. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting modest job growth of 11 thousand per year through 2020 for the combined category.

Job growth is not the only measure of new hiring. Job openings equal job growth and the number of net replacements. Net replacements are people who permanently leave an occupation for another occupation or retirement and must be replaced before there can be any job growth. Job openings for Computer User and Network Specialists have been around 26.9 per year in recent years.

The recently updated BLS Education and Training Classification assignments for network and user support specialists list some college training in computer sciences without necessarily have a degree as the entry level education minimum. However, percentages from survey data are published for the network and user support occupations showing an educational distribution where 29 percent have some college, but no degree, and almost 41 percent have an associate’s degree, or baccalaureate degree and 8 percent above the BA. Previous experience is considered unnecessary, but moderate on-the-job training is expected to be necessary for new hires.

Computer User Support Specialists

Computer User Support Specialists have at least some employment in almost every industry, but a dozen selected industries have almost 60 percent of the jobs. Computer design and related activities has almost 20 percent, 103 thousand jobs. Education, including colleges, has another 12.5 percent, a little over 65 thousand jobs. Software publishers and data processing employ 6.5 percent, or 34 thousand jobs. Management of Companies have 28 thousand jobs, combined employment services and business support services another 28 thousand, and Federal, state and local governments 23.6 thousand.

The basic wage data from the BLS occupational employment survey includes a wage distribution. Averages are not used much in wage data. A few high wages pull up the average and make it unrepresentative. Instead a distribution range of wages is published with the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentiles of wages. A 10th percentile wage means 10 percent working in this job have wages equal to or less than the 10th percentile wage and so on. Annual wages are converted to hourly wages by dividing annual by 2080.

The 2012 entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Computer User Support Specialists is reported as $27,620 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $35,790. The median wage is $46,240, the 75th percentile wage equals $60,400 and the 90th percentile wage is $77,430.

For the 103,820 Computer User Support Specialists in Computer Design and Related Services the 2012 10th percentile entry wage is $27,230. The 25th percentile wage equals $35,290. The median wage is $46,690, the 75th percentile wage equals $62,630 and the 90th percentile wage is $83,030.

Computer Network Support Specialists

Computer Network Support Specialists also have some employment in almost every industry but a dozen industries have a little over 60 percent of the jobs. Computer design and related activities has almost 21 percent, or 34.7 thousand jobs. Software publishers, communications carriers and data processing have another 13.2 percent, or 22.3 thousand jobs. Education, including colleges, employ 11 thousand; government another 11 thousand; Management of Companies 9.6 thousand jobs. About 5,000 are employed through employment agencies.

The entry wage for the national market in the 10th percentile for Computer Network Support Specialists is reported as $34,930 in 2012. The 25th percentile wage equals $44,530. The median wage is $59,090, the 75th percentile wage equals $76,450 and the 90th percentile wage is $96,850.

For the 34,700 Computer Network Support Specialists in Computer Design and Related Services the 2012 10th percentile entry wage is $34,140. The 25th percentile wage equals $44,960. The median wage is $60,050, the 75th percentile wage equals $79,890 and the 90th percentile wage is $101,170.