Wednesday, February 13, 2013

A 2013 Job Review

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its January report showing a seasonally adjusted December increase of 155 thousand jobs. The increase for the 12 months ending December 2012 is 1.836 million jobs, a respectable, but hardly spectacular increase for the year. The job totals for 2012 will be subject to review and possible revision next month, but the end of the year totals gives an opportunity to make an assessment of job growth for the future.

During the recession jobs declined 8.78 million from January 2008 until February of 2010. After the turnaround beginning March 2010 jobs are up 4.78 million to just over 134 million for December 2012. If we have 26 months in a row with 155 thousand new jobs, America will have just over 138 million jobs, which will bring jobs in March 2015 up to jobs in January 2008.

Through the recession months government employment and the share of government employment in total employment continued to rise while manufacturing employment and the share of manufacturing employment in total employment continued to fall. Manufacturing had its highest employment in 1979 followed by nearly unbroken decline until the end of February 2010.

After March 2010 when jobs started to recover manufacturing and government service reversed their long term employment trends. Government including education lost 546 thousand jobs while manufacturing gained 526 thousand. In 2012 manufacturing gained 180 thousand jobs while government lost 68 thousand jobs.

The unexpected increase in manufacturing helped provide a higher job total for the year ending December 2012. The increase in manufacturing gives a reason to be optimistic for 2013, but unfortunately much of the other 2012 gains came in service sectors that also did much better than their long term trends. For example, wholesale and retail trade added 260 thousand jobs for the 12 months ending December 2012, but their average annual increase for the last 22 years including 2012 is 94 thousand. The last 12 years including 2012 did not have job gains, but losses that averaged 65.1 thousand a year.

Trade uses computing technology that holds down job growth, but other service sectors like finance, insurance and real estate also have long term trends with slow growth as a result of computing technology. In the process of recovery from the 2008 recession all of them did much better in 2012 than their long term growth rates. Finance, insurance and real estate gained thousand 80 thousand more jobs than their long term trends would suggest.

If all sectors of the economy in goods production, private service providing industries, and government return to growth at their long term trends then 2013 job growth will have only 1.475 million more jobs, 360 thousand below the gains for 2012. It will be a slow year for jobs if that happens.

If manufacturing repeats last year’s gain and adds 180 thousand jobs and government does not decline further, while the rest of goods production and service industries grow at their long term trend then 2013 with have 1.691 million more jobs; better but still 144 thousand jobs below the 2012 gains.

Health care has been a mainstay of job growth for two decades, but last year’s increase of 391 thousand new jobs was below long term trends. Health care will add 477 thousand new jobs by December 2013 if health care industry jobs grow at their 1990 to 2012 growth rate of 2.78 percent. Lately though, health care has slowed down and last year jobs were up only 2.15 percent for the year. The time to assume health care will contribute the largest share of replacement jobs may be coming to an end. Other sectors like manufacturing and professional services will need to play a bigger role in job growth if America can meet the job needs of the future.

The recent decision on federal taxes that was part of the fiscal cliff negotiations will not help job growth. The two percent reduction in social security taxes ends. Social security taxes go up 2 percent, but the new rate schedule for the personal income tax does not reduce rates enough for a reduction in combined federal taxes. Based on the tax rate changes published in the Washington Post wage earners earning up to $60,000 will pay as much as $1,000 more in 2013 than they did in 2012.

The fiscal cliff solution makes another year with 1.836 million new jobs a doubtful forecast. Americans will need more buying power to keep the job mill going another year. To match last year’s performance for 2013 will be problematic without a continuing recovery in manufacturing, and without an unexpected boost from another service sector or sectors. Expect less.

56 comments:

Anonymous said...

Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin
for my comment form? I'm using the same blog platform as yours and I'm having trouble
finding one? Thanks a lot!

Also visit my website :: short term rental contract between

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your marvelous posting! I quite enjoyed reading
it, you are a great author.I will make certain to bookmark your blog and will eventually come back at some point.
I want to encourage you to definitely continue your great work, have a nice evening!


my website :: Electrical Home repair

Anonymous said...

I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting my own weblog and was wondering what all is needed to get setup? I'm assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
I'm not very internet savvy so I'm not 100% certain. Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thank you

Here is my web page women's gymnastics clothes

Anonymous said...

Wonderful blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News.

Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
I've been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Thank you

My page: gym workout equipment list

Anonymous said...

Hey are using Wordpress for your site platform?
I'm new to the blog world but I'm trying to get started and
create my own. Do you require any coding knowledge to make your
own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!



Here is my website activewear pants for petites

Anonymous said...

I really like what you guys are usually up too. This sort of clever work and reporting!
Keep up the very good works guys I've incorporated you guys to my own blogroll.

Also visit my site :: electronics expo las vegas

Anonymous said...

Howdy. I was thinking about adding a link back to your site since both
of our sites are centered around the same niche. Would you prefer I link
to you using your site address: http://www.blogger.
com/comment.g?blogID=8197753138756153481&postID=2327870231207093228 or web site title: Blogger: American Job Market.

Please make sure to let me know at your earliest convenience.

Thanks!

Look into my blog :: home electric circuit diagram

Anonymous said...

Hi there! I understand this is kind of off-topic however I needed to ask.
Does operating a well-established website like yours require a large amount of work?
I'm completely new to running a blog however I do write in my diary everyday. I'd like to start a blog so I will be able
to share my personal experience and thoughts online.
Please let me know if you have any ideas or tips for brand new aspiring blog owners.
Thankyou!

Here is my blog; hot air furnace

Anonymous said...

Hey there! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be ok. I'm undoubtedly enjoying your blog and look forward to new posts.


Also visit my site digital cameras with hd video reviews

Anonymous said...

Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the
pictures aren't loading properly. I'm not sure why but I think its a linking issue.
I've tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same results.

Feel free to visit my blog post ... http://www.asianave.com/your_page/blog/view_posting.html?pid=4380529&profile_id=36606578&profile_name=jeffersoneme821&user_id=36606578&username=jeffersoneme821

Anonymous said...

Hello! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform
are you using for this website? I'm getting tired of Wordpress because I've had issues with
hackers and I'm looking at options for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

my web blog ... very fine ballroom dance shoes reviews

Anonymous said...

Amazing blog! Do you have any tips and hints for aspiring writers?

I'm planning to start my own website soon but I'm a little lost on everything.
Would you suggest starting with a free platform like Wordpress or go for a paid option?
There are so many options out there that I'm totally confused .. Any ideas? Bless you!

Here is my blog ... semiconductor material and device characterization course

Anonymous said...

Hey there. I noticed your website title, "Blogger: American Job Market" does
not really reflect the content of your site. When composing your
blog title, do you think it's most beneficial to write it for Website positioning or for your audience? This is something I've been struggling with mainly because I want great search rankings but at the same time I want the best quality for my
visitors.

Feel free to visit my web blog: rs485 to usb converter cable

Anonymous said...

Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
The text in your post seem to be running off the screen in
Chrome. I'm not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I figured I'd post to let you know.
The style and design look great though! Hope you get the issue solved soon.
Thanks

Here is my website - hemlock semiconductor corp

Anonymous said...

Hello would you mind sharing which blog platform you're working with? I'm
going to start my own blog in the near future but I'm having a tough time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I'm looking for something completely unique.
P.S Apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

Visit my web site fairchild semiconductor news

Anonymous said...

Have you ever thought about including a little bit more than just your articles?
I mean, what you say is fundamental and everything. However
think about if you added some great graphics or video clips to give your posts more, "pop"!

Your content is excellent but with images and video clips, this site
could definitely be one of the very best in its niche.
Terrific blog!

Stop by my web page :: silicon wafer supplier japan

Anonymous said...

Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to safeguard against hackers?
I'm kinda paranoid about losing everything I've worked hard
on. Any tips?

Also visit my website: 6 volt golf cart batteries cheap

Anonymous said...

Hello there! I could have sworn I've been to this web site before but after browsing through a few of the articles I realized it's new to me.
Anyhow, I'm definitely delighted I stumbled upon it and I'll be bookmarking it and checking back often!


Also visit my website ... golfnow las vegas hot deals

Anonymous said...

I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting my own blog and was curious what all is needed to get setup? I'm assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
I'm not very internet smart so I'm not 100% certain. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks

my blog; kissimmee public golf

Anonymous said...

I'm curious to find out what blog platform you're utilizing?
I'm experiencing some small security problems with my latest website and I'd like to
find something more risk-free. Do you have any solutions?


Look into my homepage ... golf-clubblogrz15606lk8.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Hello, i feel that i noticed you visited my website so i came to go back the
prefer?.I am attempting to in finding issues to enhance my site!
I guess its adequate to use a few of your concepts!!

Look at my webpage: r11 driver golfwrx

Anonymous said...

Valuable info. Lucky me I found your website accidentally, and I am
stunned why this accident did not took place earlier!
I bookmarked it.

Also visit my webpage ... http://stevenslodge.org/

Anonymous said...

My spouse and I absolutely love your blog and find almost all
of your post's to be just what I'm looking for. Would you offer guest writers to
write content available for you? I wouldn't mind creating a post or elaborating on some of the subjects you write regarding here. Again, awesome web log!

Also visit my website ... vacation rentals by owner emerald isle north carolina

Anonymous said...

Heya! I hope you don't mind but I decided to post your web site: http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8197753138756153481&postID=2327870231207093228 to my online directory website. I used, "Blogger: American Job Market" as your website title. I hope this is fine with you. In the event that you'd like me to
change the title or perhaps remove it completely, email me at dortheabalderas@zoho.
com. Thank you so much.

Here is my weblog: san diego short term housing rentals

Anonymous said...

Gday! I am about to start my own blog and was wondering if you know where
the best place to acquire a blog url is? I'm not even sure if that's
what its known as? (I'm new to this) I'm referring to "http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=8197753138756153481&postID=2327870231207093228".

Exactly how do I go about obtaining one of these for the website I'm creating? Thanks alot :)

my web-site ... vacation rentals.com arizona

Anonymous said...

Excellent blog you have here but I was curious if
you knew of any user discussion forums that cover the same topics
talked about here? I'd really like to be a part of online community where I can get feed-back from other experienced individuals that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know. Thanks!

Visit my blog post: iseekblog.com

Anonymous said...

I was curious if you ever thought of changing the structure of your
site? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.
But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better.
Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or two pictures.
Maybe you could space it out better?

Also visit my blog :: home appliances insurance reviews

Anonymous said...

It's fantastic that you are getting thoughts from this article as well as from our dialogue made at this time.

Here is my webpage sports physical therapy salary

Anonymous said...

I'm starting a online blog directory and was wondering if I can submit your blog? I'm trying to grow my directory gradually by hand so that it retains good quality.
I'll make sure and put your website in the proper category and I'll
also use, "Blogger: American Job Market" as your anchor text.
Please make sure to let me know if this is
alright with you by contacting me at: terraguay@googlemail.
com. Thankyou

My homepage ... electronic components cape town south africa

Anonymous said...

Amazing things here. I am very satisfied to peer your article.
Thanks so much and I am looking forward to touch you. Will you
kindly drop me a e-mail?

Here is my homepage: golf clubs callaway

Anonymous said...

What's up to all, how is all, I think every one is getting more from this web page, and your views are nice for new users.

my homepage ... Residential LED Lighting

Anonymous said...

Thanks in support of sharing such a nice opinion, paragraph
is pleasant, thats why i have read it entirely

Here is my site: Benefits Of Chiropractic Care For Infertility

Anonymous said...

Attractive portion of content. I just stumbled upon your website
and in accession capital to claim that I get
actually enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feeds and even I fulfillment you get entry to persistently fast.

Look at my site :: Ladies Golf Gloves

Anonymous said...

Hi! I realize this is kind of off-topic however I needed to ask.
Does building a well-established blog like yours require a massive amount work?

I am brand new to blogging but I do write in my diary daily.
I'd like to start a blog so I can share my personal experience and thoughts online. Please let me know if you have any kind of ideas or tips for brand new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

Here is my page; Short game classes

Anonymous said...

Hi there, for all time i used to check web site posts
here in the early hours in the dawn, as i love to find out more and more.


Visit my website: wallinside.com

Anonymous said...

Definitely believe that that you said. Your favourite justification seemed to be at the web the
easiest factor to bear in mind of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while other people think about worries that they plainly do
not recognise about. You controlled to hit the nail upon the highest and defined out the whole thing without having
side effect , other people can take a signal.
Will likely be again to get more. Thanks

my web site: St Cloud Floral

Anonymous said...

Exceрtiοnal рοѕt hoωever I ωаs wаntіng to κnoω if уou
could wгite a littе more on this
tοpiс? I'd be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit more. Thanks!

Take a look at my homepage - diamondlinks review

Anonymous said...

Concern Fresh Wind offers a construction investment for different tariff plans. Recently, many, overcame the recent financial crisis, increasingly began to wonder where to invest money . According to conclusions of many of the leading the best analysts, one of the most spheres of investment, is a . Everyone knows that the construction of less exposed to the risk of falling prices, in addition a given that, construction has always been important and in demand, and will be in demand. Even the economic crisis did not recaptured removed the desire for people to buy their own property. Therefore, investment in construction will always remain relevant and profitable.

Fwit Biz - [url=https://fwit.biz]real estate investment[/url]

Anonymous said...

This design is spectacular! You certainly know
how to keep a reader entertained. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost.

..HaHa!) Wonderful job. I really loved what you
had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too
cool!

my website: land rover lemon law

Anonymous said...

It's appropriate time to make some plans for the long run and it is time to be happy. I've learn this submit and if I may
just I desire to suggest you few interesting issues or suggestions.
Perhaps you could write subsequent articles relating to this article.
I desire to read more issues about it!

Also visit my homepage; golf cart accessories for club car

Anonymous said...

Ahaa, its niсe discussion аbοut this раragraph
at this plаce at this wеblog, I have reаd all that, so at this time me also commenting hеre.


Аlso visіt my site ... HäMorrhoiden

Anonymous said...

I got this wеb site frоm my pal who informed mе about this web ρagе and now this time I am browsing this web sitе
аnd гeadіng vеry informative pοsts hеre.


mу ωebpage - highly Recommended internet site

Anonymous said...

Hey vеry іnteresting blog!

My website alternative medicine

Anonymous said...

Hi, I log on to your blog daily. Your story-telling style is witty,
keep up the good work!

Also visit my site :: golf gps units best

Anonymous said...

Thіs pаragrаph ωill assist the internet
visitorѕ foг settіng up neω blog or evеn a weblog from start to end.


Неre is my web-sitе http://vегdoppledeіnе-dаtes.
de/ *www.cloobiha.com*

Anonymous said...

I simply coulԁn't leave your site prior to suggesting that I really enjoyed the standard info an individual supply to your guests? Is going to be back often to investigate cross-check new posts

Also visit my homepage Fettverbrennungsofen Erfahrungen

Anonymous said...

Gгееtings, There's no doubt that your blog could possibly be having web browser compatibility problems. Whenever I look at your site in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in IE, it's got sοme oѵerlapping issuеs.
I sіmply wаntеd to pгovide yοu with а quіcκ heads up!
Asіdе frоm that, great websіtе!


Ϻy blog post Chatroulette

Anonymous said...

Right aωaу I am gоіng to do my
breаκfast, afteг having my breakfast coming over again to геad further neωs.


My web-sitе ... Cellulite

Anonymous said...

Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading?
I'm trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it's the blog.
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.


Here is my blog post: refrigerator repair

Anonymous said...

I'm extremely inspired with your writing skills as well as with the structure on your weblog. Is that this a paid subject or did you customize it your self? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare to peer a great weblog like this one these days..

my web blog - social network - -

Anonymous said...

Can I simply sаy what a relief to uncover ѕomeone whо
truly knοωs what they aгe talκing abοut onlinе.
Үou certainly understand how tο brіng a
pгοblеm to light аnd
make it important. Α lot more peoplе should check this out and underѕtand
this side of the stοrу. It's surprising you're not more poρulаr ѕincе you ԁefіnitely possess the gift.


My website; Cellulite

Anonymous said...

ӏ am гeally grateful to the holԁeг
of this web site who haѕ shared this imрressive piece оf writing at at thіs
plаce.

Αlso visit my pagе: Βauсhmuskeltraining ()

Anonymous said...

I'm really enjoying the theme/design of your weblog. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility issues? A number of my blog audience have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Safari. Do you have any tips to help fix this problem?

Also visit my web page - Sixpack

Anonymous said...

A fasсinating ԁiscussіοn іѕ ԁеfinіtеly worth comment.
Theгe's no doubt that that you should publish more about this subject, it might not be a taboo subject but generally folks don't
dіѕcuss theѕe issues. Тο thе
neхt! Cheers!!

my page - naturаl cures for hemогrhoіds []

Anonymous said...

Great blog here! Also youг web site loаԁs up vегу
fast! Whаt ωeb host arе you using?
Can I get уour affilіatе link to your hоst?
I ωiѕh my website loadeԁ up аs fаѕt as yοurs lol

Here iѕ mу ωeb blog Bauchmuskeltraining

Jack Smith said...

I want to encourage you to definitely continue your great work, have a nice evening!
Petroleum Jobs Houston